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Swing Trades using Price Action

  • #261
  • Nov 19, 2023 6:16pm Nov 19, 2023 6:16pm
OK, so did your EA give you a:

Buy on eurjpy daily today?
Buy on audusd hourly today?
Buy on gbpjpy hourly today?

If the answer is "No" on any of them, there's a flaw in the EA.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #262
  • Nov 19, 2023 7:09pm Nov 19, 2023 7:09pm
Quoting NikoArms
{quote} I understand. I have a particular flaw, whenever I do manual backtests of more than 100 operations I self-sabotage, my eye easily picks up winning operations but sometimes has difficulty picking up losing operations and sometimes even ignores some losing ones. This is why I only trust backtests done by EAs
You say you have a flaw... psychological/mental obviously.
How do you know that the EA has no flaws?

To help overcome personal flaws, you need a clearly defined winning mechanical strategy with written down rules that you back/forward test manually.
To overcome EA flaws you need to find whats wrong and fix it.

Run your EA on the Hourly eur/jpy from 1st jun '23 to today

.... If your EA matches my manual trades you should have found about 84 trades with 70% win rate at 1:1 risk.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #263
  • Nov 19, 2023 11:55pm Nov 19, 2023 11:55pm
Quoting pt49
{quote} You say you have a flaw... psychological/mental obviously. How do you know that the EA has no flaws? To help overcome personal flaws, you need a clearly defined winning mechanical strategy with written down rules that you back/forward test manually. To overcome EA flaws you need to find whats wrong and fix it. Run your EA on the Hourly eur/jpy from 1st jun '23 to today .... If your EA matches my manual trades you should have found about 84 trades with 70% win rate at 1:1 risk.
I’ll test that time period with the indicator method too. Did you check every H1 candle or only the ones where you would be awake?

If so, can you confirm the times you only took entries?
  • #264
  • Nov 20, 2023 2:39am Nov 20, 2023 2:39am
Quoting Gubbo89
{quote} Did you check every H1 candle or only the ones where you would be awake?
Every candle, its mainly backtest.
Some recent forward testing, BUT for data collection... EVERY candle is seen.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #265
  • Nov 20, 2023 4:44am Nov 20, 2023 4:44am
Quoting pt49
{quote} Every candle, its mainly backtest. Some recent forward testing, BUT for data collection... EVERY candle is seen.
OK - thanks.

I've just run this manually through the same date range on H1 using 1:1 but using the indicator from jakartamafia (with all settings except 33% rule off).
Want to make it clear that I am not trying to discredit either pt49 or jakartamafia - just trying to find something that works for me and is profitable.

Using the indicator, I found 35 trades - 17 Wins = 49% WinRate.

So something is a bit wonky here and puts into doubt the other trading/backtesting/results I had previously.
Need to try and get to the bottom of this but not sure where to start...
  • #266
  • Nov 21, 2023 1:22am Nov 21, 2023 1:22am
Interesting enough to check it out on TF 1 and 4 H
  • #267
  • Nov 21, 2023 3:46am Nov 21, 2023 3:46am
Quoting brabus8001
Interesting enough to check it out on TF 1 and 4 H
Trust me, it's worth it.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #268
  • Nov 21, 2023 4:34am Nov 21, 2023 4:34am
I'll try. Instead of trading on a demo account without emotions, I buy the 10k challenge. and there I trade for $100, I have $10k. yes, and I will test your strategy on the 1H and 4H interval. I plan to trade 0.5% and TP1-50% and TP2 100%, i.e. I will divide the transaction into two parts. I'm starting today. Thanks for the explanation and idea for strategies
  • #269
  • Nov 21, 2023 6:47am Nov 21, 2023 6:47am
Quoting brabus8001
I'll try. Instead of trading on a demo account without emotions, I buy the 10k challenge. and there I trade for $100, I have $10k. yes, and I will test your strategy on the 1H and 4H interval. I plan to trade 0.5% and TP1-50% and TP2 100%, i.e. I will divide the transaction into two parts. I'm starting today. Thanks for the explanation and idea for strategies
Good luck young man.
Journal your trades and emotions etc.
It's a learning tool.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #270
  • Nov 21, 2023 9:14am Nov 21, 2023 9:14am
Probable entry into AUDUSD 4H in 40 minutes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #271
  • Edited 2:30pm Nov 21, 2023 2:05pm | Edited 2:30pm
.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #272
  • Edited 7:12pm Nov 21, 2023 2:28pm | Edited 7:12pm
Quoting brabus8001
Probable entry into AUDUSD 4H in 40 minutes {image}
I would not be anticipating a pinbar so far out from candle close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #273
  • Edited 7:11pm Nov 21, 2023 3:13pm | Edited 7:11pm
Please be aware that the 8ema repaints as the new candle forms after valid entry candle closes sometimes.
This only happens when there is a strong move up or down on the new candle.
It can affect what you may see and record.
For instance it can pull the 8ema away from the qualifying pinbar, leaving the pinbar NOT touching the ema.
Another point is the data provider... I use FXCM charts on TradingView if I can... Oanda may paint a shorter or longer pinbar, for instance.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #274
  • Nov 21, 2023 10:59pm Nov 21, 2023 10:59pm
there was no good entrance. Tell me, does the direction of the wick matter to you?
  • #275
  • Nov 21, 2023 11:08pm Nov 21, 2023 11:08pm
For analysis, I only use mt4 charts of the broker I trade with. when determining the trend, you suggest EMA8 or EMA16. I noticed that sometimes EMA8 is up and EMA16 is down. what are you guided by then? Is the overall appearance of the chart or do you follow the price or is EMA8 the most important?
  • #276
  • Edited 11:33pm Nov 21, 2023 11:13pm | Edited 11:33pm
Following are 8 examples of trades in the last 6 hours... mostly all occurring 5 to 6 hours ago.
Quite obviously it's hard to enter so many trades at the same time due to available margin... and these were ALL on the one hour time frame.
This is why it is important for you to backtest at least 50 (preferably 100) trades on any one pair, to pick out just a few pairs to follow.

I follow over 20 pairs BUT I only place trades on the 3 best pairs at present... based on my back testing.

I missed all these trades due to not being available at the time.
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #277
  • Nov 21, 2023 11:14pm Nov 21, 2023 11:14pm
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #278
  • Nov 21, 2023 11:14pm Nov 21, 2023 11:14pm
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #279
  • Edited Nov 22, 2023 3:56pm Nov 21, 2023 11:22pm | Edited Nov 22, 2023 3:56pm
Quoting brabus8001
For analysis, I only use mt4 charts of the broker I trade with. when determining the trend, you suggest EMA8 or EMA16. I noticed that sometimes EMA8 is up and EMA16 is down. what are you guided by then? Is the overall appearance of the chart or do you follow the price or is EMA8 the most important?
You don't get many trades on 4 hour and less on daily.
The one hour will produce about a trade a day on average, per pair.

The direction of 8ema is the most important.
At the start and end of a trend the 8ema will change direction first, which is what I now follow.
If 8ema is flat or almost flat I reject the trade.
At first you may find it easier to use both.

All the 8 trades posted earlier are on the one hour charts.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #280
  • Nov 21, 2023 11:27pm Nov 21, 2023 11:27pm
Quoting brabus8001
there was no good entrance. Tell me, does the direction of the wick matter to you?
The LONG tail of the wick must touch or pierce the 8ema, NOT the short wick.
Occasionally the entire candle may pass through the 8ema.

A bullish pinbar must touch the ema from ABOVE.
A bearish pinbar must touch ema from BELOW.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
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