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USD/TRY

  • #1,661
  • Aug 18, 2022 6:53pm Aug 18, 2022 6:53pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: turkish cpi.jpg Size: 76 KB
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,662
  • Aug 18, 2022 7:08pm Aug 18, 2022 7:08pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY turkish 1 week repo rate.jpg Size: 74 KB
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,663
  • Aug 18, 2022 7:28pm Aug 18, 2022 7:28pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY_2022-08-18_20-27-37.png Size: 23 KB
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,664
  • Aug 20, 2022 7:18pm Aug 20, 2022 7:18pm
After the close of trading on Friday, August 19th...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY_2022-08-20_20-12-50.png Size: 67 KB
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,665
  • Aug 20, 2022 7:27pm Aug 20, 2022 7:27pm
Here's the four-hour chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY_2022-08-20_2023h.png Size: 55 KB

The range is now approaching the Dec. 20, 2021 peak for the USD/TRY,
where 1 USD purchased over 18.25 lira.
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,666
  • Sep 4, 2022 4:18pm Sep 4, 2022 4:18pm
The Y-on-Y decline of the Turkish lira, with annotations.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY_2022-09-04 - Turkish lira approaches its 20 Dec low.png Size: 77 KB
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,667
  • Sep 5, 2022 2:29pm Sep 5, 2022 2:29pm
USDTRY: Sept 5, 2022.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY_2022-09-05_15-28-12.png Size: 66 KB
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,668
  • Sep 5, 2022 2:43pm Sep 5, 2022 2:43pm
USD/TRY, the 4-hr chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY_2022-09-05 - 4H chart - Turkish lira approaches its 20 Dec low.png Size: 72 KB

When seen on a shorter time-frame, we notice that the LIRA is still approaching
the Dec. 20, 2021 low of 18.258...
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,669
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:25pm Sep 8, 2022 8:25pm
Thursday, Sept. 8.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY_2022-09-08.png Size: 77 KB
I feel as though the excitement is leaving this currency pair.
The ranges are getting smaller and smaller with each passing day.
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #1,670
  • Nov 16, 2023 6:15pm Nov 16, 2023 6:15pm
The Bank of Turkey will have its policy meeting on November 23, 2023. Whatever the outcome, I expect it to be good for the USD. Therefore, I am long now and will hold this pair through the meeting and beyond.
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #1,671
  • Edited 1:29pm Nov 18, 2023 1:07pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting JourneyLife
The Bank of Turkey will have its policy meeting on November 23, 2023. Whatever the outcome, I expect it to be good for the USD. Therefore, I am long now and will hold this pair through the meeting and beyond.
bad idea!
when they increase interest rates 5 or more percent over the expected 40%, usdtry will go down for 1 day minimum and then go up one month maybe until this old price level near again or more down for longer time (depends how market participants will believe in that inflation will get down by increasing interest rates and how strict inflation will get fight).

so saying going long "whatever the outcome of bigger market decisions" will come to problems when you get out of luck, because you trade then your opinion and not the reality happen on the market.

when you would say you go long when interest rate get 40% or lower, then would be a different story. but have in calculation high Swap rates any day.

and another part : when you are no real account trader, only a prop account trader, forget about this complete ... at least in more easy retail platforms like Metatrader 4 or Metatrader 5, your chance to lose the account is near 100% with this currency because often the spread can get simple 5% alone (some brokers even more) and this will kill your drawdown limit maybe in a second. but even in real accounts calculate margin call/ stop out exactly.
  • #1,672
  • Nov 19, 2023 1:05pm Nov 19, 2023 1:05pm
Quoting Trader191
{quote} bad idea! when they increase interest rates 5 or more percent over the expected 40%, usdtry will go down for 1 day minimum and then go up one month maybe until this old price level near again or more down for longer time (depends how market participants will believe in that inflation will get down by increasing interest rates and how strict inflation will get fight). so saying going long "whatever the outcome of bigger market decisions" will come to problems when you get out of luck, because you trade then your opinion and not the reality...
There are ways around the swap. You have your opinion. I will keep holding and buying. I am holding based on a monthly and weekly chart; not tiny time frames. If it drops 2%, I will buy more.
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #1,673
  • Nov 19, 2023 1:42pm Nov 19, 2023 1:42pm
Quoting JourneyLife
{quote} There are ways around the swap. You have your opinion. I will keep holding and buying. I am holding based on a monthly and weekly chart; not tiny time frames. If it drops 2%, I will buy more.
i dont have a opinion, thats our difference, i let the market decide.

take care with this trading style. you are real trader or in prop account?


ways around the swap like islamic accounts?
  • #1,674
  • Nov 19, 2023 2:19pm Nov 19, 2023 2:19pm
Quoting Trader191
{quote} i dont have a opinion, thats our difference, i let the market decide. take care with this trading style. you are real trader or in prop account? ways around the swap like islamic accounts?
That is one way. With an Islamic account you will pay around $70 per day. It is a good deal depending on the amount of capital you have. However, there are other ways. Real trader or prop? What is the difference? Prop traders are real trader too, but not all real traders are pro traders. I don't get it.
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #1,675
  • Nov 19, 2023 2:34pm Nov 19, 2023 2:34pm
Quoting JourneyLife
{quote} That is one way. With an Islamic account you will pay around $70 per day. It is a good deal depending on the amount of capital you have. However, there are other ways. Real trader or prop? What is the difference? Prop traders are real trader too, but not all real traders are pro traders. I don't get it.
until now not one good trader exist in prop accounts, maybe some get good traders one day (but thats an other story). but also some are not beginners inside the social props and use for earn money because still dont have earned by trading enough, that is true.

i only ask because you write more like prop trader and take trades no matter what market is doing, like is not your money and so you need not to take care so much. a little bit just gaming style.

and of course are social prop trader (and we speak here about this social prop) no real traders, thats just a trading game (if you do this you should know what you do). prop trader are no fund manager, have not even any little cents or fund because the prop company dont fund anything (all just fiction numbers ) - they are just gamer in a game. so in social prop someone just attend a trading game, thats all and trade all the time demo account unconnected with his trade amount to any real exchange or OTC interbank market ... comparing prop account and real accounts is like you compare apple and oranges.
  • #1,676
  • Nov 19, 2023 3:38pm Nov 19, 2023 3:38pm
Quoting Trader191
{quote} until now not one good trader exist in prop accounts, maybe some get good traders one day (but thats an other story). but also some are not beginners inside the social props and use for earn money because still dont have earned by trading enough, that is true. i only ask because you write more like prop trader and take trades no matter what market is doing, like is not your money and so you need not to take care so much. a little bit just gaming style. and of course are social prop trader (and we speak here about this social prop) no real...

Whatever that is, all that matters to me is making money in investing in stocks and other instruments that present a good mid to long term investment.

"i only ask because you write more like prop trader and take trades no matter what market is doing, like is not your money and so you need not to take care so much. a little bit just gaming style." <---- Number one: The moment you don't have a clear plan, that leads to uncontrolled emotions whether you are trading your own money or managing other people's money. Take a look at James Cordier who managed around 150 million dollars of other people's money for many years. He made one mistake and lost the entire 150 million of investor's money. Number two: When you invest your money or other people's money, you should have a clear strategy that you trust with your life and your might. You follow the system; and, don't try to outsmart the market. If you care too much about your money more than sticking with the process, then you will lose. That is how it works. You have to separate yourself from "your money" and wear a different hat (whether it is your money, your family's money, other people's real money). So, I do not agree with you about comparing prop account, family office accounts, investment pools, other forms of investment agreements, individual accounts, etc. They are all a form of real money and a real business if you treat it like one. If your mindset is a gambler mindset, then you will be a gambler. If your mindset is an investor style of mindset, then you will be an investor. If you mindset is a day trader (get rich quick) mindset, then you are a get rich quick mindset person.
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #1,677
  • Edited 7:47pm Nov 19, 2023 7:32pm | Edited 7:47pm
Quoting JourneyLife
{quote} Whatever that is, all that matters to me is making money in investing in stocks and other instruments that present a good mid to long term investment. "i only ask because you write more like prop trader and take trades no matter what market is doing, like is not your money and so you need not to take care so much. a little bit just gaming style." <---- Number one: The moment you don't have a clear plan, that leads to uncontrolled emotions whether you are trading your own money or managing other people's money. Take a look at James Cordier...

Number one: The moment you don't have a clear plan, that leads to uncontrolled emotions whether you are trading your own money or managing other people's money. Take a look at James Cordier who managed around 150 million dollars of other people's money for many years. He made one mistake and lost the entire 150 million of investor's money.

answer: you did not understand what is a prop account, there is not smallest money inside. this people are no money manager at all. call them gamer is fine, because they play a game. the people you mention would tell you, they could lose something what was real there. dont play a game and compare with real.

Number two: When you invest your money or other people's money, you should have a clear strategy that you trust with your life and your might. You follow the system; and, don't try to outsmart the market. If you care too much about your money more than sticking with the process, then you will lose. That is how it works. You have to separate yourself from "your money" and wear a different hat (whether it is your money, your family's money, other people's real money). So, I do not agree with you about comparing prop account, family office accounts, investment pools, other forms of investment agreements, individual accounts, etc. They are all a form of real money and a real business if you treat it like one. If your mindset is a gambler mindset, then you will be a gambler. If your mindset is an investor style of mindset, then you will be an investor. If you mindset is a day trader (get rich quick) mindset, then you are a get rich quick mindset person

Answer: you are wrong in this fact (and its important that you know this or your process to get a trader some day is not even starting at the moment when you not know what you do)! social prop trader (we dont speak here about institutionell prop trading , or?) are simple gamer (really help yourself and educate yourself about what is prop trading in the social prop accounts, looks like you dont know this!) . they dont manage any money (like family office, investment pools and other you mentioned), not one cent. so this rule is useless when you not managing one cent. always know what you do! a game is a game, dont make more of a social prop what it is. when you want manage money then do in your own account, in fund , whatever has real money inside.. but dont call a fake gaming (what only has the name prop for fake marketing purpose) something that has to do with managing money.
there is a thread "prop hub", the people there speak a lot about what props are and smart people are inside who trade in props and you can ask them about what props are in reality if you cant trust me and dont know where to find such informations. you need to learn what you do, first step! then you can start talking about quotes from other persons, who by the way spoke about different topics (noone would use any of this quote for social props!).


by the way: when you one day have a own account bigger size you will realize that trading own account with big size is total different story against a prop trading game with not one cent money inside , only your entry fee for the game is maybe at risk (and even a real fund what has not your money big in is different in trading). talking about doing same in a prop gaming account against trading in own real account is like playing call of duty and talk to a soldier about war or play FIFA and talk to a soccer player. but yes , with playing a game you can earn money too, but you are a gamer not a soldier or soccer player or trader and this people who play this games would not call themself this, same like not one call the people in props trader, they are also gambler / gamer (you have to, its constructed like this to push you to do). the world is easy, why make such easy facts so difficult.
and nothing against that you play a trading game with the prop, but always know what you do.

but do you really use social prob accounts? are there stocks and long term investments normal? maybe you speak about different props (real institutionell props and not social props from last years growing up)? because my text is only referred to social prop companies as trading games like FTMO and so on.
  • #1,678
  • Nov 20, 2023 1:25am Nov 20, 2023 1:25am
Quoting Trader191
{quote} Number one: The moment you don't have a clear plan, that leads to uncontrolled emotions whether you are trading your own money or managing other people's money. Take a look at James Cordier who managed around 150 million dollars of other people's money for many years. He made one mistake and lost the entire 150 million of investor's money. answer: you did not understand what is a prop account, there is not smallest money inside. this people are no money manager at all. call them gamer is fine, because they play a game. the people you mention...

Number 1: I do not care what social prop trading is and do not care to know about it. I am just here to trade my money an investor and post my ideas on USDTRY.

Number 2: Mindset matters over emotions. It does not matter to me if the money is given to me to manage from Warren Buffet, from a president, from prop trading firm like FTMO, CTI, Family office, Trading investment pool, or my individual capital; because I when I push the button and invest money, I invest with the same mindset and the same profitable strategy that I have been doing for years. I manage everything with the same mindset no matter what situation. I do not care if I lose or win in the end. If you care about losing your own money and have no solid strategy in investing, then that is your psychological problem. As for me, I have a strategy that works and I stick with it.

Number 3: You think USDTRY will fall, but I am buying it because I think it will rise. If you feel that USDTRY is a bad investment, then that is a matter of your own opinion. I think it is a great investment! And, like I said before and say it again: The Bank of Turkey will have its policy meeting on November 23, 2023. Whatever the outcome, I expect it to be good for the USD. Therefore, I am long now and will hold this pair through the meeting and beyond.
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #1,679
  • Nov 20, 2023 4:14am Nov 20, 2023 4:14am
Quoting JourneyLife
{quote} Number 1: I do not care what social prop trading is and do not care to know about it. I am just here to trade my money an investor and post my ideas on USDTRY. Number 2: Mindset matters over emotions. It does not matter to me if the money is given to me to manage from Warren Buffet, from a president, from prop trading firm like FTMO, CTI, Family office, Trading investment pool, or my individual capital; because I when I push the button and invest money, I invest with the same mindset and the same profitable strategy that I have been doing...
you did say, whatever happen in interest decision you will buy USDTRY , so you totally not care about investors money because its not your risk. you say one thing (you care about the money) and act opposite (you dont care about money by trading fixed idea whatever will happen in market). thats not fair for your investor. thats why so many fail, because exactly speak like you but act different then they speak!

like "no matter what is outcome of a interest decision, i will do this and this". that is one of biggest beginner mistakes, you should not be allowed to manage money, but this your investor should decide (on the end you sound like you fake even this and only have a fake prop account and call yourself money manager, unbelievable how low educated you speak about trading other people money). but never let the investor read your textes, he would get scared by your knowledge and how you play with his money gambling your fixed opinion no matter what market is doing.
sorry for this hard words, but this exactly makes so many people lose by acting like you. very strict and fixed opinion about a market, no matter what economic data is coming out or and no matter what a price will do, Always do fixed plan until account killed. what should i say to this ,sounds great or please educate yourself and dont waste investors money when you are unable to have own account and have no trading education?

at least i understand now your sentence "I do not care if I lose or win in the end.". but thats total crazy to hear, on the end you should win or you should taken away any investor money if you not even care if your investor wins on the end, you are just a simple gambler hiding with faked words from some quotes of traders you not even understand correct. thats really unfair to risk other people money with your skills.

you did not even understand what i wrote: i have no opinion about USDTRY after interest rate decision (all depend what interest rate will come , how market member believe in this way and how orders and so price reacts), i decide what market will think about interest decision and then decide what to do, not like you do - i even wrote the scenarios and what will do and you was unable to understand (how you call yourself trader not understanding this simple fact?).. .. at the moment i dont believe you trading many years or you ignored all basics done as trader in first years.

lets stop here, i thought i help you because of your big mistake to make trades whatever happens in market (what is really one of the biggest beginner mistakes possible), but you are at a level you cant understand even what i write to you.

sorry for you, but i really dont like people who scam other people as investor by dont care about get wins for investor, just care about not losing own money with their low skills and so dont trade own account and search for other People invest. you not even try to learn something, you find yourself perfect even by doing biggest beginner mistakes and write about it. and then hiding this by quotes you dont understand correct is the top of this.
  • #1,680
  • Nov 20, 2023 7:22am Nov 20, 2023 7:22am
Quoting Trader191
{quote} you did say, whatever happen in interest decision you will buy USDTRY , so you totally not care about investors money because its not your risk. you say one thing (you care about the money) and act opposite (you dont care about money by trading fixed idea whatever will happen in market). thats not fair for your investor. thats why so many fail, because exactly speak like you but act different then they speak! like "no matter what is outcome of a interest decision, i will do this and this". that is one of biggest beginner mistakes, you should...
Read carefully. I said, "Whatever the outcome, I expect it to be good for the USD." I did not say. "Whatever happens, I will do this and that." You cannot take half of the sentence and make it to mean what you want. This is a mistake in beginners of English learners and critical thinkers. Now, the rest of what you said is meaningless.

If you have an opinion about USD/TRY going up or down, then that would be valuable. I, however, based upon my own fundamental analysis, believe that on November 23, 2023, when the Bank of Turkey has its policy meeting, the USD/TRY will rally up. Therefore, this is the reason why I am buying and holding USD/TRY.
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
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