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Swing Trades using Price Action

  • #241
  • Nov 16, 2023 5:29am Nov 16, 2023 5:29am
Quoting Gubbo89
{quote} Sorry, wasn’t very clear. The total was 100 trades over seven pairs, not 100 trades per pair. I am using 1:2 risk/reward but also testing a trailing stop with the same data. Going to test 2 more years before deciding what to do next.
A way I'm going to use the data is to see if there are seasonal trends, good or bad.
Being a very simple entry model, you would think it would be consistent over 130+ trades in 3 full years on a forex pair... but it's not.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #242
  • Nov 16, 2023 7:57am Nov 16, 2023 7:57am
Hi,I come from China. I've been following your system for a long time, and I saw a good Shooting Star, and on the weekly line, if you can check it out for me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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My English is not good, sometimes I say the wrong thing, please forgive me!
  • #243
  • Nov 16, 2023 2:42pm Nov 16, 2023 2:42pm
Quoting iota
Hi,I come from China. I've been following your system for a long time, and I saw a good Shooting Star, and on the weekly line, if you can check it out for me {image}
Hi iota, your screenshot doesn't show the 8 & 16ema's, or the data source.
I suggest you go back, and read the opening post and look at some of my screenshots in the thread too.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #244
  • Nov 16, 2023 7:52pm Nov 16, 2023 7:52pm
Quoting jakartamafia
Long Opportunity: CADJPY 8H (2 positions) Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low. Both of them are not on the one-third top, as suggested by PT49. {image} -- Long Opportunity: XAGUSD 1H (TP Hit) Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low. {image}
CADJPY 8H Long (2 Position)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 45 KB


Got stopped out for 2 position. One of them hit TP1 already = BE trade. The other one -1R.
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #245
  • Nov 16, 2023 8:01pm Nov 16, 2023 8:01pm
Long Opportunity: EURGBP 4H - running
Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 45 KB


---
Long Opportunity: USDCHF 1H - running
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 53 KB
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #246
  • Nov 17, 2023 7:59am Nov 17, 2023 7:59am
Quoting pt49
Use a Fib Template to quickly estimate if a candle qualifies... {image}
I am interested to set up a Fib 33.3% dividers but do not find where to start this template. Appreciate your helpful reply.
We only trade when there is AGREEMENT. Get 1% Better Each Day!
  • #247
  • Nov 17, 2023 1:07pm Nov 17, 2023 1:07pm
Been backtesting H4 timeframe for a week now and will post results below.
Have used the indicator provided by jakartamafia with different settings applied to see if this made any difference.

Years: 2021 & 2022
Pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD (7 Majors)

ALL SETTINGS ON - 108 trades - 33% WinRate = BE P&L
SLOPE ON - 138 trades - 30% WinRate = -12% P&L
SIZE ON - 144 trades - 35% WinRate = 6% P&L
NONE - 198 trades - 34% WinRate = 3% P&L

Fairly disappointing results altogether for the amount of trades taken.
Not sure if I should test 2023 next or different pairs or just move up to the daily timeframe like pt49 suggested in his original post and try again.

Could it be that this strategy dosen't work well with the majors?
Anyone else have results on H4 to share?
  • #248
  • Nov 17, 2023 8:42pm Nov 17, 2023 8:42pm
There is an issue that I don't understand: If I bet on the H4 time frame, do I need to check the D1, W1 or higher frames to synchronize the trend?
Sometimes H4 is for buying but D1 is a downtrend
  • #249
  • Nov 17, 2023 10:48pm Nov 17, 2023 10:48pm
Quoting deaftrader
{quote} I am interested to set up a Fib 33.3% dividers but do not find where to start this template. Appreciate your helpful reply.
You make and save your own template in TradingView as depicted below... and when in doubt if a candle qualifies you simply apply the tool to the high and low of the candle in question.
The top wick and body should be within the top ⅓ of the fib you have drawn, and visa versa for a bearish candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fib tool 1.png Size: 72 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #250
  • Edited 11:33pm Nov 17, 2023 11:20pm | Edited 11:33pm
Quoting cuongnv93
There is an issue that I don't understand: If I bet on the H4 time frame, do I need to check the D1, W1 or higher frames to synchronize the trend? Sometimes H4 is for buying but D1 is a downtrend
I don't use a bias based on longer timeframes, but you could I guess... whatever floats your boat.
I now just enter based on if the 8ema is sloping up or down, if it is flat at the close of qualifying candle, I ignore the entry signal.
The example below it was unfortunate but if you have a set of rules you must follow them.
You based your rules on past experience and if you back/forward tested 100 trades you should trust your rules.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flat.png Size: 17 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #251
  • Nov 18, 2023 1:19am Nov 18, 2023 1:19am
Quoting jakartamafia
Long Opportunity: EURGBP 4H - running Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low. {image} --- Long Opportunity: USDCHF 1H - running {image}
Long GBPNZD 1h SL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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---
Long EURGBP 4h - still running
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Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #252
  • Nov 18, 2023 9:19am Nov 18, 2023 9:19am
I coded this, if anyone uses it and finds any bugs or problems implementing the strategy correctly please let me know


i'm backtesting...
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 Swing Trades using Price Action.ex5   29 KB | 306 downloads
Perfection does not exist, EVERYTHING can be improved
  • #253
  • Nov 18, 2023 10:20am Nov 18, 2023 10:20am
Quoting pt49
{quote} I don't use a bias based on longer timeframes, but you could I guess... whatever floats your boat. I now just enter based on if the 8ema is sloping up or down, if it is flat at the close of qualifying candle, I ignore the entry signal. The example below it was unfortunate but if you have a set of rules you must follow them. You based your rules on past experience and if you back/forward tested 100 trades you should trust your rules. {image}
Thank you for sharing the "Thirds" fibo setting.

On the previous XAUUSD chart that I share here, the 8ema does not touch the long wick and sloped down with 16ema. Yet, it gets the RR of 5.74 at TP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 31 KB
We only trade when there is AGREEMENT. Get 1% Better Each Day!
  • #254
  • Nov 18, 2023 10:49am Nov 18, 2023 10:49am
Quoting NikoArms
I coded this, if anyone uses it and finds any bugs or problems implementing the strategy correctly please let me know i'm backtesting... {file}
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex5 Swing Trades using Price Action v1.1.ex5   30 KB | 312 downloads
Perfection does not exist, EVERYTHING can be improved
  • #255
  • Nov 18, 2023 8:29pm Nov 18, 2023 8:29pm
Quoting NikoArms
{quote} {file}
Unfortunately this is the best result I got.
Operating all Majors for the last 60 months
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 20 KB
Perfection does not exist, EVERYTHING can be improved
  • #256
  • Nov 19, 2023 2:34pm Nov 19, 2023 2:34pm
Quoting deaftrader
{quote} Thank you for sharing the "Thirds" fibo setting. On the previous XAUUSD chart that I share here, the 8ema does not touch the long wick and sloped down with 16ema. Yet, it gets the RR of 5.74 at TP. {image}
You need to draw up a set of rules for your strategy and backtest it extensively.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #257
  • Nov 19, 2023 2:40pm Nov 19, 2023 2:40pm
Quoting pt49
{quote} You need to draw up a set of rules for your strategy and backtest it extensively.
Thanks for the input! You're absolutely right about the importance of a robust strategy backed by a set of rules. I've been actively working on crafting a solid framework that aligns with my trading style and risk tolerance.

I've been diligently outlining specific rules for my strategy, focusing on entry and exit criteria, risk management guidelines, and indicators to guide decision-making. It's a work in progress, but the aim is to create a structured approach that I can consistently apply.

As for backtesting, it's definitely on my agenda. I believe in the power of historical data to validate and refine a strategy. I'm in the process of extensively backtesting to assess how well the strategy performs under different market conditions. This step is crucial to fine-tuning and ensuring the strategy's reliability.

It's a meticulous process, but I'm committed to this approach as it lays the groundwork for more informed and calculated trades. The goal is to build a strategy that not only performs well historically but also holds up in real-time market scenarios.

Have you had any specific experiences or insights while crafting and backtesting your own trading strategies? I'd love to hear about your approach or any tips you might have found useful along the way.

Thanks again for highlighting the importance of strategy and backtesting – it's an integral part of this journey!

Best regards,
deaftrader
We only trade when there is AGREEMENT. Get 1% Better Each Day!
  • #258
  • Edited 4:01pm Nov 19, 2023 3:37pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting NikoArms
{quote} Unfortunately this is the best result I got. Operating all Majors for the last 60 months {image}
Thanks Niko... I have not tried your EA/indicator so I can't give an opinion on its worth.

I back test manually in TradingView, and only use metatrader for placing live trades.
I have more than 1 pair with winrates over 75% with 1:1 r/r on all time frames (the best being 78% over 122 trades on 60min chart).

Manual back testing improves your trading 1,000% more than relying on an EA.
An EA can give you a lot of data in a short time, but how do you know if the data is accurate compared to real time trading, if you have no saved data from real time trading to compare it with?
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #259
  • Nov 19, 2023 4:00pm Nov 19, 2023 4:00pm
Entry BUY on EURJPY daily time frame today... I'm in this one live.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.png Size: 29 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #260
  • Nov 19, 2023 6:06pm Nov 19, 2023 6:06pm
Quoting pt49
{quote} Thanks Niko... I have not tried your EA/indicator so I can't give an opinion on its worth. I back test manually in TradingView, and only use metatrader for placing live trades. I have more than 1 pair with winrates over 75% with 1:1 r/r on all time frames (the best being 78% over 122 trades on 60min chart). Manual back testing improves your trading 1,000% more than relying on an EA. An EA can give you a lot of data in a short time, but how do you know if the data is accurate compared to real time trading, if you have no saved data from real...
I understand. I have a particular flaw, whenever I do manual backtests of more than 100 operations I self-sabotage, my eye easily picks up winning operations but sometimes has difficulty picking up losing operations and sometimes even ignores some losing ones. This is why I only trust backtests done by EAs
Perfection does not exist, EVERYTHING can be improved
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