Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 577 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #11,521
  • Nov 10, 2023 3:16am Nov 10, 2023 3:16am
Quoting Steve666
Gold 4H {image}
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  • #11,522
  • Nov 10, 2023 3:23am Nov 10, 2023 3:23am
GOLD Daily
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  • #11,523
  • Nov 10, 2023 3:31am Nov 10, 2023 3:31am
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  • #11,524
  • Nov 10, 2023 4:13am Nov 10, 2023 4:13am
What i have on Gold future 4h with reversal trade of focal2 low (32 periods) targeted on median focal5 (256 periods)

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  • #11,525
  • Nov 10, 2023 8:03am Nov 10, 2023 8:03am
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  • #11,526
  • Nov 10, 2023 8:11am Nov 10, 2023 8:11am
As long as Price is UNDER the Descending Valid Trend Line (VTL) Trend is bearish
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  • #11,527
  • Edited 8:32am Nov 10, 2023 8:19am | Edited 8:32am
5 Legs Down Move
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  • #11,528
  • Nov 10, 2023 4:31pm Nov 10, 2023 4:31pm
Quoting parisboy
{image}
Parisboy,

Thank you for this ,,, it is quite instructive !

S.
  • #11,529
  • Nov 10, 2023 4:39pm Nov 10, 2023 4:39pm
Quoting js497
What i have on Gold future 4h with reversal trade of focal2 low (32 periods) targeted on median focal5 (256 periods) {image} {image}
JS497,

Thank you for this,,,

S.
  • #11,530
  • Nov 11, 2023 4:12pm Nov 11, 2023 4:12pm
Bitcoin has reached the top of the blue channel. Interesting week or two to follow.
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  • #11,531
  • Nov 13, 2023 3:48am Nov 13, 2023 3:48am
Hi Parisboy,

Even though I rarely post on your great thread, I follow along daily. I have a several questions that I would greatly appreciate your views & comments on. 1. Did you ever have the opportunity to have a conversation with T. Henning Murrey? 2. Are you aware of what has happened to Murrey of late as it appears his business has been closed. 3. What are your views on the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze that Trader John Carter has made mention of? 4. Would it be a correct statement to say that the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze would be a form of cycles since it is made up of Envelopes of sorts? 5. Would Envelopes that were developed using the 200 EMA offer value to the trader? Would they provide the same information as to the current trend the same as the Envelopes shown in your charts?

Thank you for your views & comment on these questions.
  • #11,532
  • Nov 14, 2023 3:06am Nov 14, 2023 3:06am
SP500 Composite cycle Index - not 100%, but pretty accurate - based on Hurst and Dewey's principles (Not there cycle lengths though)

Some BIG cycles topping in 2024 - the declines of those cycles are always worthwhile events to short, once price action confirms

(ASTRO says there should be a significant LOW in OCT 2025, followed by the 666 WEEK "BEAST" cycle in 2026, WAR cycle in 2026 too - so a "tetchy" market should be in the offing in the build up to all those combined events)

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THT
  • #11,533
  • Nov 14, 2023 6:14am Nov 14, 2023 6:14am
Cable looking for the daily direction, entering on the H4:
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Stick to the plan!
  • #11,534
  • Nov 16, 2023 1:10pm Nov 16, 2023 1:10pm
Quoting acetrader
Hi Parisboy, Even though I rarely post on your great thread, I follow along daily. I have a several questions that I would greatly appreciate your views & comments on. 1. Did you ever have the opportunity to have a conversation with T. Henning Murrey? 2. Are you aware of what has happened to Murrey of late as it appears his business has been closed. 3. What are your views on the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze that Trader John Carter has made mention of? 4. Would it be a correct statement to say that the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze would be a form of cycles...
Hi Ace thanks for your interest. Sorry fior the late answer.
1 - I never had the opportunity to meet or have a conversation with T.H. Murrey . I just had avery short contact by phone when I bought his software (EOD) in 1990 or 1999 . After that I worked a lot on Murrey's Method but "around" Murrey. In fact I did not really worked with Murrey's book) that I bought too, but with Tim Kruzel's explanation / clarification papers. And with others on different internet yahoo groups.

At first Murrey took part on an internet group and had a "normal" behavior. But very quickly he showed the "megalomaniac" image you know.

From various exchanges on the above quoted yahhoo users groups. some who followed Murrey's seminars find him sympathetic and interesting. Others had the impression to have been misleaded and said they have lost their time and money.

I can not personally judge. But I have a negative idea about the guy. Murrey after I began to use the Octave system NEVER posted a forecast or a trade. NEVER. Only Price Action descriptions according to Murrey System , mainly in Tradersworld Magazine.

May be you can get more information on Murrey himself by asking OAPDave who met him (from memory)

2) I have no specific information about Murrey personally. But I assume Murrey was getting too old and was borgerline seniele. My knowledge is indirect . 5 or 6 years ago , Charles , one of my australian correspondent bought Murrey's "book". He never got it fought a long time to be refunded. Murrey told him the secretary mixed Australia and Austria. Hence I scanned Murrey's "book" and send it to Charles.
  • #11,535
  • Nov 16, 2023 1:54pm Nov 16, 2023 1:54pm
Quoting acetrader
Hi Parisboy, Even though I rarely post on your great thread, I follow along daily. I have a several questions that I would greatly appreciate your views & comments on. 1. Did you ever have the opportunity to have a conversation with T. Henning Murrey? 2. Are you aware of what has happened to Murrey of late as it appears his business has been closed. 3. What are your views on the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze that Trader John Carter has made mention of? 4. Would it be a correct statement to say that the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze would be a form of cycles...
What Is a Bollinger Band Squeeze?
A Bollinger Band Squeeze is a condition that occurs when the Bollinger Bands narrow due to decreased volatility. According to John Bollinger, periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility. Therefore, a volatility contraction or narrowing of the bands can foreshadow a significant advance or decline. Once the squeeze play is on, a subsequent band break signals the start of a new move. A new advance starts with a squeeze and subsequent break above the upper band. A new decline starts with a squeeze and subsequent break below the lower band.

Ace, IMHO there is no specific use of Cycles in Bollinger Bands Methodology . Only 33 occurences sparssed within the chapters as notes on the 4-year cycle (yhe predidential cycle in Bonds) and about Cyclic Analysis
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  • #11,536
  • Edited 2:58pm Nov 16, 2023 2:10pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Hi Ace thanks for your interest. Sorry fior the late answer. 1 - I never had the opportunity to meet or have a conversation with T.H. Murrey . I just had avery short contact by phone when I bought his software (EOD) in 1990 or 1999 . After that I worked a lot on Murrey's Method but "around" Murrey. In fact I did not really worked with Murrey's book) that I bought too, but with Tim Kruzel's explanation / clarification papers. And with others on different internet yahoo groups. At first Murrey took part on an internet group and had a "normal"...
Just to add
Murrey relied on Squaring the charts ie Time and Price
His software did this quite well producing his Circles of conflict angles and Trade Frames
All in EOD format
The problem was boy oh boy was it slow very very slow and clunky
plus you had find and pay a provider for EOD Data
He than ran into the problem of MT4 and the clever coders Xard for one ,they could never quite sort out the Squaring of charts on MT4 but they did something that Murrey could not do
Yes make his ideas work with Intraday Data
So in my opinion pulled the rug from underneath his feet, ie sales = money etc
The other problem which never got really explained was the Yearly start date
Just so happened he started it on his Birthday which just happened to be when he renewed the license's
Saying all that I took to his ideas and in my own way, still use right or wrong way, to this day
Yes I would to this day really like to have a full working piece of software with all the Bells and Whistles but it's never going to happen
Dave
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  • #11,537
  • Edited 3:07pm Nov 16, 2023 2:22pm | Edited 3:07pm
Quoting acetrader
Hi Parisboy, Even though I rarely post on your great thread, I follow along daily. I have a several questions that I would greatly appreciate your views & comments on. 1. Did you ever have the opportunity to have a conversation with T. Henning Murrey? 2. Are you aware of what has happened to Murrey of late as it appears his business has been closed. 3. What are your views on the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze that Trader John Carter has made mention of? 4. Would it be a correct statement to say that the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze would be a form...
What is a "squeeze" ? For John Bollinger it is a reduction in volatilty - defined as a Tendency for Price to Vary which is vague and non-quantifiable.

Old John tells us " A Bollinger Band Squeeze is a condition that occurs when the Bollinger Bands narrow due to decreased volatility. According to John Bollinger, periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility. Therefore, a volatility contraction or narrowing of the bands can foreshadow a significant advance or decline"

Ok but why ? If it is a repetive Price Pattern there is a rational behind it.

It is very simple when you understand how a Moving Average works. Only Hurst (to my knowledge ) has explained us clearly how a Moving Average works and the conseqiences if we use Moving Averages in our Trading
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  • #11,538
  • Nov 16, 2023 2:47pm Nov 16, 2023 2:47pm
Let's take the Basic Bollinger parameters for understanding of our demonstration. MA parameter is 20 Time Units.

Let's use Daily.

We have a MA Present Value (PV) = Sum of the 20 last Days Value (S) divided by 20.

Then to get the next MA Value you add the next Day Value to the previous Sum S and subtract from S the value of the Day positioned 20 Days back. Then you get a New MA Present Value (NPV) and so on .

If and as long NPV > PV your 20 Days MA goes Up
If and as long NPV < PV your 20 Days MA goes Down

when the difference between NPV and PV reaches a minimum your MA builds a Low or a Top. That is your MA inflexion point. That is where your "squeeze is minimal too. The Bollinger Squezze means just that the absolute value of the difference between the present days and their respective subtracted 20 Days back is decreasing up to a minimum (or zero) where the MA will turn.
  • #11,539
  • Nov 17, 2023 12:11am Nov 17, 2023 12:11am
DAX M1:
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Stick to the plan!
  • #11,540
  • Nov 17, 2023 6:56am Nov 17, 2023 6:56am
Quoting acetrader
Hi Parisboy, Even though I rarely post on your great thread, I follow along daily. I have a several questions that I would greatly appreciate your views & comments on. 1. Did you ever have the opportunity to have a conversation with T. Henning Murrey? 2. Are you aware of what has happened to Murrey of late as it appears his business has been closed. 3. What are your views on the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze that Trader John Carter has made mention of? 4. Would it be a correct statement to say that the Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze would be a form of cycles...
BB & KC's are volatility and range Indicators - I wouldn't use them for cycle analysis

Carter's "Squeeze" fires off when the BB's squeeze inside the Keltner Channel and then the BB's pop back out of the KC's - 12 period Momentum Indicator = long or short depending on its position above or below the zero line

John Carter then put the Momentum Indicator through linear regression to create a smoothed Momentum histogram - cash out of the position when the momentum started to fade
DJIA MONTHLY chart:

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[I think] A better strategy is to wait for a confirmed UP trend remove the BB's and just use the KC's and once price is above the middle KC MA line, BUY EVERY fall down to/hit of the middle moving average line and the LOWER KC channel line on price falls down to it - It pays to know when bear markets are due though to avoid buying when the likes of 2000-03 & 2007-09 etc come along or use as a heads up that the price decline in play is running out of steam and look for buy confirmations etc

Take the KC right now on the DJIA MONTHLY chart - its moving sideways and not trending - The only thing I'd look to do with that right now is look for buying opps if the lower band was hit with confirmation on a smaller (DAILY) time frame of a poss bull reversal trend

If the trend of the KC's was UP like 2010-2022 then I'd quite happily blindly buy the monthly KC middle or lower band line with a stop or use an option as its been pretty effective for years

THT
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