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Support and Resistance, Swing / Long term trading

  • #61
  • Edited 11:01pm Nov 9, 2023 10:18pm | Edited 11:01pm
Interesting set up occuring on EURCHF.

I am always long bias the CHF currency, because their economy is very stable and their politics is great (no problems with any country whatsoever, interest rates and inflation in order). Its a very safe asset and all currencies seem to depreciate against the CHF. Im having a lot of trouble going long AGAINST the CHF, in this case EURCHF.

Monthly chart: Double bottom + Bullish Pinbar
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Weekly chart:

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Here is what I would need to happen; I would need to see the resistance being broken to the upside on the Weekly chart to consider buying on a retracement. For now, the double bottom and bullish PB on the Monthly isnt enough for me to go against such a strong currency.
  • #62
  • Nov 10, 2023 4:06am Nov 10, 2023 4:06am
I am currently engaging in a short position on USD/JPY, setting my stop-loss orders slightly above the recent highs. This strategy is based on the anticipation of a potential retracement in the near term.
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The scent of a rose will always stay on the hand of the giver.
  • #63
  • Nov 10, 2023 8:41am Nov 10, 2023 8:41am
Quoting VanKenobi
I am currently engaging in a short position on USD/JPY, setting my stop-loss orders slightly above the recent highs. This strategy is based on the anticipation of a potential retracement in the near term. {image}
Any clue as to why you think it will go down? Do you trade price action? SnR? SnD?
  • #64
  • Nov 10, 2023 12:32pm Nov 10, 2023 12:32pm
Quoting TheCardinal
Pending order: Gold long Multiple entries: {image} {image} Here is how I will manage the trades. All depends on how price approaches the fib levels. If price pulls back just before my entry and moves +500 pips (gold) away from it, I delete the pending. I have a 1100 pips SL. I will also place a pending on the 61% if price breaks both the 38% and 50% fib. I usually move BE at +500 pips
We in on our first pending

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  • #65
  • Nov 10, 2023 12:35pm Nov 10, 2023 12:35pm
I employ a diverse trading strategy that incorporates various methods, with a primary focus on support and resistance analysis. I believe one of the most challenging aspects of this business is to avoid making impulsive decisions that conflict with your established viewpoint. However, for this particular trade, I am convinced of the favorable risk-to-reward ratio, which justifies my decision to proceed with it.
There were minor liquidity spikes that I anticipated would be captured, leading to a potential retracement. My expectation was that these spikes would initiate a pullback. Yet, contrary to my initial assessment, the market is currently exhibiting a gradual upward trend.
The scent of a rose will always stay on the hand of the giver.
  • #66
  • Nov 10, 2023 5:42pm Nov 10, 2023 5:42pm
Quoting TheCardinal
Short SP500 For those of you who have been following this thread for a while, you should know the reasons but here it is: Weekly: {image} Daily: {image} Im not a big fan of TL, but this is an interesting one and its happening at a Weekly KL with a Daily bearish Engulf (highest high of all previous candles and a lower low than the previous candle). What else could I be asking for? Double MACD confirmation with RSI confluence and moving averages crossover? All I need left is the order block FVG to validate that entry with a micro swing on the m2 chart....
Out with a loss on this one

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  • #67
  • Nov 10, 2023 5:44pm Nov 10, 2023 5:44pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} We in on our first pending {image}
Stop will be moved to BE at the open Sunday night (after spreads are under control)

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  • #68
  • Nov 12, 2023 5:46pm Nov 12, 2023 5:46pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Stop will be moved to BE at the open Sunday night (after spreads are under control) {image}
Stop moved to BE

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Depending on your Take profit rules, you could secure some at +1R or something like that. For me, Im not taking anything for now.
If it goes down further, we are out without a loss and I have a pending at the 50% Fib
  • #69
  • Nov 13, 2023 2:35am Nov 13, 2023 2:35am
Quoting VanKenobi
I am currently engaging in a short position on USD/JPY, setting my stop-loss orders slightly above the recent highs. This strategy is based on the anticipation of a potential retracement in the near term. {image}
I experienced a stop-out on this particular trade. While I understand the specific reasons that led to this outcome, it's important to note that the initial rationale for entering the trade was sound, based on the perceived potential and the willingness to take a calculated risk.
The scent of a rose will always stay on the hand of the giver.
  • #70
  • Nov 13, 2023 8:24am Nov 13, 2023 8:24am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Stop moved to BE {image} Depending on your Take profit rules, you could secure some at +1R or something like that. For me, Im not taking anything for now. If it goes down further, we are out without a loss and I have a pending at the 50% Fib
Out BE as expected
  • #71
  • Nov 13, 2023 11:42am Nov 13, 2023 11:42am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Stop moved to BE {image} Depending on your Take profit rules, you could secure some at +1R or something like that. For me, Im not taking anything for now. If it goes down further, we are out without a loss and I have a pending at the 50% Fib
This always fascinated me.

Now that we are out at BE, we get a decent move up. Fascinating. Really. There is no way to know when is the right time to BE. Along the way of those 4 years of learning, I had a lot of questions about that "moving to BE" thing.

Account preservation so it better to move quickly your Stop to BE
Wait for a decent move away and have an objective way of defining what is a "decent move away",
Wait for a break of structure on the entry time frame

What is your way of moving your Stop to BE? Regardless of the move, we are out now so lets wait for a deeper retracement if it happens.

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  • #72
  • Nov 13, 2023 6:08pm Nov 13, 2023 6:08pm
Very subjective, but for me about 10 pips. then again subjective, add to the trade or start to take partials? This trade would have looked very different if I'd been awake for the spike.
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  • #73
  • Nov 13, 2023 7:38pm Nov 13, 2023 7:38pm
Quoting mallee
Very subjective, but for me about 10 pips. then again subjective, add to the trade or start to take partials? This trade would have looked very different if I'd been awake for the spike.{image}
Yeah, I dont think there is a right answer. As long as we do not let emotions get the better of ourselves
  • #74
  • Nov 14, 2023 3:10am Nov 14, 2023 3:10am
I am considering initiating a short position on USD/JPY again. Recent economic data from the U.S. and Japan suggests a potential shift in the currency pair's dynamics, making a short position seem favorable. I've also analyzed key technical levels and believe that the pair may face downward pressure in the near term, offering a strategic opportunity for shorting.
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The scent of a rose will always stay on the hand of the giver.
  • #75
  • Nov 14, 2023 3:29am Nov 14, 2023 3:29am
I still think USDJPY longs are preferred, fundamentals, trend and channel all show longs.
There was a retrace for some 250 pips but that is already passed, I'm going to wait for a clear break of the previous highest high and then a bounce on it, looking for more longs.

Just looking at the difference in interest rates between USD and JPY tells me to go long on this pair.

just my 2c :-)
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  • #76
  • Nov 14, 2023 8:18am Nov 14, 2023 8:18am
USDJPY may offer some pull back along the way to the upside, but the pair is clearly still up. No change in recent economic data will change the rates difference between these 2 currency. BOJ is killing their currency and there is no data that will save the Yen except rising interest rates in positive territory. Every pullback down is just an opportunity to buy in my opinion.
  • #77
  • Nov 14, 2023 8:22am Nov 14, 2023 8:22am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} EURUSD, Pending order: {image} See "quoted" post for more details as to why I placed a pending from the Monthly and Weekly perspective
Deleting pending order since we had a move up
  • #78
  • Nov 14, 2023 8:22am Nov 14, 2023 8:22am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} AUDCAD, Pending order unless we break the recent high at 0.8910. {image} Splitting my risk between these 2 entries. I dont know where price will reverse, im betting on the 50% break&retest as previously mentioned and the 78% that is close to the origin of the bullish move. I dont want to have an order at the 50% retracement with a 200 pips SL. For me, its not worth it on this pair. Its not as volatile as GBPJPY for example.
Deleting pending order since we had a reaction near the 50% level already.
  • #79
  • Nov 14, 2023 8:35am Nov 14, 2023 8:35am
Quoting TheCardinal
Its unfortunate that lately we had some pretty good trades setting up, but the outcome wasnt positive. Lets take this EURGBP trade, still open by the way but doesnt look good. {image} {image} I would take this trade 10 times out of 10. Perfect set up. Higher time frame KL, Weekly Bearish Engulf with the highest high at that KL and a lower low than the previous candle. Daily has multiples PA confirmation also. These are the kind of trades that when looking back, we made the right call taking it regardless of the outcome. NOT taking it would be a...
We finally got it back to our entry BE. Am I getting out? I thought of closing partially my position and only risk 0.5% instead of my usual 1% and the reason is NOT because I have a chance to "get out without a loss when it was in the red". Thats just a bad reason and you let emotions take your decisions. It never ends well.
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The only reason I thought about it is because we had a WEEKLY candle close above my resistance KL as you can see in the picture above. This usually means trouble. I will keep my position as it is and try to move BE as quick as possible.

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  • #80
  • Nov 14, 2023 3:11pm Nov 14, 2023 3:11pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Deleting pending order since we had a move up
I am applying the same strategy to the USD/JPY pair.
The scent of a rose will always stay on the hand of the giver.
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