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Support and Resistance, Swing / Long term trading

  • #41
  • Nov 7, 2023 8:31am Nov 7, 2023 8:31am
[quote=TheCardinal;14644841]Another interesting case study. It takes litterally 10sec to do. Open a chart, any chart. Go to the Weekly TF. Click on the horizontal line tool, close your eyes, move your mouse/trackpad up and down and click while still having your eyes closed. Now open your eyes. Im 100% SURE you will find places where your horizontal line, this so called "key level" reacted and you could have shorted or go long and make good money. Crazy right?

Has anybody tried this yet or had this realization already?
  • #42
  • Nov 7, 2023 9:28am Nov 7, 2023 9:28am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} so far no momentum to break support. i put trade to BE and will see which side will london open push to. {image}
BE.
another short.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #43
  • Nov 7, 2023 9:33am Nov 7, 2023 9:33am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} BE. another short. {image}
So why did you move BE on your first entry, if you are to re-take the trade no matter what happens? If you were to tell me that you moved BE to then see how the H4 candle would close to consider re-shorting again, that would make sense. But it just seem to me like you just got out BE and you are re-entering without any confirmation. So back to my original question: why did you move BE on your first entry, if you are to re-take the trade no matter what happens?
  • #44
  • Nov 7, 2023 11:04am Nov 7, 2023 11:04am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} So why did you move BE on your first entry, if you are to re-take the trade no matter what happens? If you were to tell me that you moved BE to then see how the H4 candle would close to consider re-shorting again, that would make sense. But it just seem to me like you just got out BE and you are re-entering without any confirmation. So back to my original question: why did you move BE on your first entry, if you are to re-take the trade no matter what happens?
h1 chart for clearer view.
i mentioned my reason for BE here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post14645473
further view was that price might do a liquidity sweep.
upon seeing momentum move up, it was just not logical not to do anything about it and remain status quo.
it would even be better to exit trade before hitting BE.
my view is that trading is dynamic not static.
entry was based on confluence of zones, trend line and sr.
could even have a 2nd short around the h4 ss.
it was also to get a better selling price than originally.
the higher h4 ss and liquidity sweep as 1st line of defence.
the bigger view of selling has not changed.


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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #45
  • Edited 11:46am Nov 7, 2023 11:22am | Edited 11:46am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} h1 chart for clearer view. i mentioned my reason for BE here. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post14645473 further view was that price might do a liquidity sweep. upon seeing momentum move up, it was just not logical not to do anything about it and remain status quo. it would even be better to exit trade before hitting BE. my view is that trading is dynamic not static. entry was based on confluence of zones, trend line and sr. could even have a 2nd short around the h4 ss. it was also to get a better selling price...
You are saying that you should have exited the trade before it hits your BE point, but the bigger view of selling has not changed? So my original question stands: Why did you move BE if the overall view has not changed? To get a better entry? If the reasoning is that it might do a liquidity sweep, why not place your entry where you think the liquidity sweep will take place? 34066 vs 34110 for a "better entry" is not a big difference.

So you are re-entering with the same confluences as before, only now you think it will do a liquidity sweep? I mean no offense, but I fail to see the reason and logic here. It just seems like you can enter at any time, for any reason. You had technical reasons for the trade and when it failed, you re-enter because it might just be a liquidity sweep. I mean, we can say that every time a trade goes against us. It can always do a "liquidity sweep" dont you think?

Maybe its just me, and again, I really mean no offense, but I dont get why go BE to re-enter right when your trade stopped you out BE. I would have understand if you wanted to see exactly what you said: "a liquidity sweep" and THEN enter after...
  • #46
  • Nov 7, 2023 11:39am Nov 7, 2023 11:39am
XTIUSD

Buy entry now.
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If there is ONE place I want to buy before the major monthly support (green box), is right here, right now. It either moves up, or breaks down and eventually reaches the green box. Its worth a try.
  • #47
  • Nov 7, 2023 6:54pm Nov 7, 2023 6:54pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} You are saying that you should have exited the trade before it hits your BE point, but the bigger view of selling has not changed? So my original question stands: Why did you move BE if the overall view has not changed? To get a better entry?.
Maybe its just me, and again, I really mean no offense
i have thick skin so it's ok provided it's not foul or derogatory.

So my original question stands: Why did you move BE if the overall view has not changed? To get a better entry? If the reasoning is that it might do a liquidity sweep, why not place your entry where you think the liquidity sweep will take place?
you entered a trade for crude oil based on a single higher time frame support resistant. for me i need to see a confluence there (whether in higher or lower time frames). price just moved nearer to it for a better sell price. so why not?
the basis of entry is not on a liquidity sweep. the basics is on confluence. i won't place a sell limit for that as i don't see any confluence there.
within the liquidity sweep zone, i mentioned that i could even have a 2nd short around the h4 ss.
i might place a sell stop though after seeing lower time frames confluence, however lower time frames do not interest you.
but i could not do that as it was already after 1am my time. sleep is more important to me.

34066 vs 34110 for a "better entry" is not a big difference.
44 points to you is not a big difference. that's a matter of opinions.

It just seems like you can enter at any time, for any reason. You had technical reasons for the trade and when it failed, you re-enter because it might just be a liquidity sweep. I mean, we can say that every time a trade goes against us. It can always do a "liquidity sweep" dont you think?
no. you are making presumptions?
i am basically a day trader. i would be very busy with tens and tens of trades if that happens every time i enter a trade.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #48
  • Nov 7, 2023 7:18pm Nov 7, 2023 7:18pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} Maybe its just me, and again, I really mean no offense i have thick skin so it's ok provided it's not foul or derogatory. So my original question stands: Why did you move BE if the overall view has not changed? To get a better entry? If the reasoning is that it might do a liquidity sweep, why not place your entry where you think the liquidity sweep will take place? you entered a trade for crude oil based on a single higher time frame support resistant. for me i need to see a confluence there (whether in higher or lower time frames). price...
I appreciate the explanations. As long as everything makes sense to you, thats what matters. And about that Oil trade lol...
  • #49
  • Nov 7, 2023 7:19pm Nov 7, 2023 7:19pm
Quoting TheCardinal
XTIUSD Buy entry now. {image} If there is ONE place I want to buy before the major monthly support (green box), is right here, right now. It either moves up, or breaks down and eventually reaches the green box. Its worth a try.
Out on my original position with trailing stop and my added position with half risk (since it was added position).

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  • #50
  • Nov 7, 2023 11:49pm Nov 7, 2023 11:49pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} What do I recommend? What do you mean? What pairs to trade? What time frame? Regardless of your answer, I do not scalp, it is not my expertise, therefore I probably dont have the answers your are looking for.
No, it's not. I use my own 'Triangle 8th' system in trading. This is an advanced trade that utilizes the unique fluctuation between currencies.
  • #51
  • Nov 8, 2023 8:32am Nov 8, 2023 8:32am
Going short on EURGBP:

Weekly KL, Weekly Bearish Engulf

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Looking at the Daily, we have multiple Bearish PB and Engulfs. All signs point to the downside. Its worth a try

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  • #52
  • Nov 8, 2023 10:22am Nov 8, 2023 10:22am
Will be monitoring EURCAD for a short opportunity

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No clear trend on the Weekly right now, we will trade the zone. Will need to see a Daily or Weekly PB or Engulf

Monthly is up

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  • #53
  • Nov 8, 2023 12:41pm Nov 8, 2023 12:41pm
Pending order: Gold long

Multiple entries:

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Here is how I will manage the trades. All depends on how price approaches the fib levels. If price pulls back just before my entry and moves +500 pips (gold) away from it, I delete the pending. I have a 1100 pips SL.

I will also place a pending on the 61% if price breaks both the 38% and 50% fib. I usually move BE at +500 pips
  • #54
  • Edited 9:29am Nov 9, 2023 8:33am | Edited 9:29am
Its unfortunate that lately we had some pretty good trades setting up, but the outcome wasnt positive. Lets take this EURGBP trade, still open by the way but doesnt look good.

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I would take this trade 10 times out of 10. Perfect set up. Higher time frame KL, Weekly Bearish Engulf with the highest high at that KL and a lower low than the previous candle. Daily has multiples PA confirmation also. These are the kind of trades that when looking back, we made the right call taking it regardless of the outcome. NOT taking it would be a mistake.
  • #55
  • Nov 9, 2023 9:39am Nov 9, 2023 9:39am
Quoting TheCardinal
Its unfortunate that lately we had some pretty good trades setting up, but the outcome wasnt positive. Lets take this EURGBP trade, still open by the way but doesnt look good. {image} {image} I would take this trade 10 times out of 10. Perfect set up. Higher time frame KL, Weekly Bearish Engulf with the highest high at that KL and a lower low than the previous candle. Daily has multiples PA confirmation also. These are the kind of trades that when looking back, we made the right call taking it regardless of the outcome. NOT taking it would be a...
You control the process, not the short term outcome. In your case it would be a case of good process, bad outcome. You did all the right things according to your trading plan/strategy but were simply victim to 'bad luck'.

You can only control the process, not the short term outcome. However if you focus on controlling the process, the long term outcome magically takes care of itself. - I read this in a book recently, really interesting stuff and helpful with trading psychology.

From Google:

  1. "Following a good process can lead to a bad outcome because of uncertainty. A good process with a bad outcome requires that we remember nothing is for sure. Bad outcomes from a bad process require a choice. If we are delusional and let our ego dominate, we mistakenly see this as bad luck."

Seeking Fair Value
  • #56
  • Edited 11:13am Nov 9, 2023 10:51am | Edited 11:13am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} You control the process, not the short term outcome. In your case it would be a case of good process, bad outcome. You did all the right things according to your trading plan/strategy but were simply victim to 'bad luck'. You can only control the process, not the short term outcome. However if you focus on controlling the process, the long term outcome magically takes care of itself. - I read this in a book recently, really interesting stuff and helpful with trading psychology. From Google: "Following a good process can lead to a bad outcome...
Very well said and this is why I dont bother myself too much with these "bad trades". I followed my plan and the short term outcome is random, but over the long term I should see profits. I know these were high probability trades. Focus on the process, not the outcome. On to the next ones
  • #57
  • Nov 9, 2023 11:16am Nov 9, 2023 11:16am
Quoting TheCardinal
Will closely monitor USDSGD (for a long opportunity) and USDJPY (for a short opportunity) {image} {image} At this point in time, USDJPY short is quite risky. I need more than just a Weekly Pinbar to consider the trade. I need a change of order flow at least on the Daily, so a break of my blue box will give me just that. THEN I will consider shorting the pair. Thats all for now
USDSGD has reacted to our zone, but I had no pending and no confirmation, so no trade triggered here. I will delete the zone since it reacted just before giving us a deeper retracement.

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  • #58
  • Edited 11:02pm Nov 9, 2023 7:55pm | Edited 11:02pm
Short SP500

For those of you who have been following this thread for a while, you should know the reasons but here it is:

Weekly:

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Im not a big fan of TL, but this is an interesting one and its happening at a Weekly KL with a Daily bearish Engulf (highest high of all previous candles and a lower low than the previous candle). What else could I be asking for? Double MACD confirmation with RSI confluence and moving averages crossover? All I need left is the order block FVG to validate that entry with a micro swing on the m2 chart. Just kidding
  • #59
  • Nov 9, 2023 8:00pm Nov 9, 2023 8:00pm
Im not taking this trade, but for those of you who are willing to bet on the Yen:

NZDJPY Weekly: Massive drop from up there

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Daily: Nice Pinbar, though I like them with a bigger body than this one. The japanese candlestick "gravestone" and "dragonfly" have not been proven to be reliable IMO. I'd rather have a Pinbar with a 75% wick and 25% body. This one is still a decent good looking PB regardless.
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  • #60
  • Nov 9, 2023 9:35pm Nov 9, 2023 9:35pm
Quoting TheCardinal
AUDCAD. I've been following this one closely since we are at Monthly and Weekly support printing bullish PB {image} {image} Now that we have a break of the previous structure, I will try to get involved with a retracement (if next week gives me one) {image} The 50% retracement seems like a nice place to enter (for now). It aligns well with a break&retest of structure. I'll keep you guys updated
AUDCAD might trigger during the night. Pendings are on ladies and gentlemen!

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