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Swing Trades using Price Action

  • #201
  • Nov 6, 2023 4:59am Nov 6, 2023 4:59am
I have been back testing popular pairs on the Daily and 60min time frames... up to 24 years data on the daily...
The pairs I've tested are winning trades 65 to 80% on daily chart with 1:1 risk to reward.

Blind Freddy can make good bank with those figures.

The best has had several winning streaks of 10-13 trades on end, with max losing streaks of only 3.

I'm not going to tell you which pair or time frame... you gotta learn to DO THE WORK, PAY THE PRICE to
have success.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #202
  • Nov 6, 2023 5:01am Nov 6, 2023 5:01am
BACKTEST, BACKTEST and when you think you know you know... BACKTEST some more.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #203
  • Nov 6, 2023 5:05am Nov 6, 2023 5:05am
I am back testing the hard way, candle by candle in Trading View.
I have looked at a few thousand of these setups now and they stand out like dogs nuts.
All you need to do is put in the work, and record the results.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #204
  • Nov 6, 2023 5:38am Nov 6, 2023 5:38am
Current live trades (in real account) are as follows...

60min Trades
EURJPY... +1r about
EURAUD... +3.5r and 1.3r
AUDUSD... -0.3r
AUDCAD... +0.55r
AUDCHF... +0.7r
USD CHF... +0.9r
NZD... +1.76r
EURGBP... +10.9r (entry was Friday AM).

Daily Trades
NZDJPY... +1.95r (entry was on Nov 2nd).
GBPJPY... +2.63r (entry 3rd Nov)
BTCUSD... +1.08r (entry 4th Nov)

LOSERS... I started trading 60min only today Asian session.
Had a loss 1r on daily Friday.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #205
  • Edited Nov 7, 2023 7:07pm Nov 6, 2023 9:00pm | Edited Nov 7, 2023 7:07pm
OK bigboy, how'd they go overnight?

A few stopped out hitting TakeProfit.
A few are still running.
None hit StopLoss as yet.

60min Trades
EURJPY... --------------------------- +1.49R
EURAUD... ------------------------- +5.5R and 2.67R
AUDUSD... --------------------------- +5.4R
AUDCAD... -------------------------- +1.12R
AUDCHF... ---------------------------- +1.64
USD CHF... -------------------------- +1.35R
NZDCAD... -------------------------- +2.46R
EURGBP... (entry was Friday AM) +11.31R

Daily Trades
NZDJPY... (entry was on Nov 2nd)-- +2.26R
GBPJPY... (entry 3rd Nov) ---------- +2.74R
BTCUSD... (entry 4th Nov) ------ +1.08R

Those values are the max profit/loss on those trades

60min trades... +30.48R
Daily Trades..... +6.08R

Of course nobody gets perfect exits, however if taking a partial profit at +1R on every trade you still get +11r.

New trades last 12 or so hours -
Daily:
CL (Light Crude Oil) +0.27

60min
EURAUD --- +4.47R
EURGBP ---- +2.18R, and 2 stopped out -2R
EURCAD --- -1R
USDJPY ---- +8.17R
AUDUSD --- +5.86R
AUDJPY ---- -1R
AUDCHF --- +1.56R & +2.45R
GBPUSD --- +6.55R
GBPJPY ---- -1R
GBPNZD --- +1.8R & +1.81R
NQ (Nasdaq) +3.09R
YM (Dow) -- +0.97R
AU200 (ASX)+1.94R

DON'T be GREEDY... take partials at about +1R and manage the trades.
If a trader can't make book with this entry method, they will always struggle.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #206
  • Edited 8:40pm Nov 9, 2023 1:40am | Edited 8:40pm
Short Opportunity: AUDNZD 8H

Entry with stop order 1 pips below the low and stop-loss 1 pips above the high.
Let's see how it goes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 46 KB


--
Long Opportunity: EURGBP 4H
Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 47 KB


--
Long Opportunity: USDJPY 4H
Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 49 KB


--

Short Opportunity: AUDCAD 4H [TP HIT]
Entry with stop order 1 pips below the low and stop-loss 1 pips above the high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 49 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 52 KB
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #207
  • Nov 9, 2023 1:44am Nov 9, 2023 1:44am
Quoting jakartamafia
New Long Entry Possibilities (?) Based on H1 EURJPY. Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high, and stop-loss 1 pips below the low. One of the opportunities hit TP already +2R. The other one is hovering around +1R {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 38 KB


TP Hit, yeay !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 38 KB
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #208
  • Nov 9, 2023 8:47pm Nov 9, 2023 8:47pm
Long Opportunity: EURGBP Daily
Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low.
Interestingly, in lower timeframe also shows a similar setup (4H and 8H)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 48 KB


--
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #209
  • Edited Nov 11, 2023 2:13am Nov 10, 2023 12:13pm | Edited Nov 11, 2023 2:13am
Long Opportunity: CHFJPY
Based on H4. Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 40 KB



Long Opportunity: EURJPY
Based on H4. Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 38 KB


Happy weekend everyone!

To Note:
See the currency often moves in correlation.
Entering both trades at the same time is as risky as entering a trade with double position sizing.
I believe to survive longer in this game, risk management is crucial.
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #210
  • Nov 11, 2023 2:26am Nov 11, 2023 2:26am
Quoting jakartamafia
Short Opportunity: AUDNZD 8H Entry with stop order 1 pips below the low and stop-loss 1 pips above the high. Let's see how it goes. {image} -- Long Opportunity: EURGBP 4H Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low. {image} -- Long Opportunity: USDJPY 4H Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low. {image} -- Short Opportunity: AUDCAD 4H [TP HIT] Entry with stop order 1 pips below the low and stop-loss 1 pips above the high. {image} {image}
AUDCAD 4H Short = TP Hit
EURGBP 4H Long = TP Hit, yey!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 42 KB


To Note:
Using stop-order (Buy Stop in this case) could prevent the wicking movement like this one. Definitely still got a loss here and there, but it minimizes the risk of being wrong all the way through the SL. It cuts the unnecessary loss from the final result.

Still Open Trades - both floating in profit, hovering around +1R:
USDJPY 4H Long
AUDNZD 8H Short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 51 KB
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #211
  • Nov 11, 2023 5:08pm Nov 11, 2023 5:08pm
PT49
Looks a good simple profitable strategy.
Are there any rule changes to the first post? I noticed your daily trade on the GJ on the 3rd Nov did not have a wick greater than 2/3 of the candle(2nd Nov).
Thanks
  • #212
  • Nov 12, 2023 2:47pm Nov 12, 2023 2:47pm
Quoting pt49
Current live trades (in real account) are as follows... 60min Trades EURJPY... +1r about EURAUD... +3.5r and 1.3r AUDUSD... -0.3r AUDCAD... +0.55r AUDCHF... +0.7r USD CHF... +0.9r NZD... +1.76r EURGBP... +10.9r (entry was Friday AM). Daily Trades NZDJPY... +1.95r (entry was on Nov 2nd). GBPJPY... +2.63r (entry 3rd Nov) BTCUSD... +1.08r (entry 4th Nov) LOSERS... I started trading 60min only today Asian session. Had a loss 1r on daily Friday.
Thanks for the thread pt49,
if it's possible please show some of your entries on H1/D1 from time to time.
  • #213
  • Edited Nov 13, 2023 8:49pm Nov 12, 2023 9:20pm | Edited Nov 13, 2023 8:49pm
Quoting jakartamafia
New Long Entry Possibilities (?) Based on H1 EURJPY. Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high, and stop-loss 1 pips below the low. One of the opportunities hit TP already +2R. The other one is hovering around +1R {image}
I forgot to update this EURJPY 1H one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 40 KB


From the total 3 trades, results are:
+2R
+2R
-1R

Update after reviewed by the one and only @pt49
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 38 KB


It can be seen these 3 trades are not qualified. Very interesting.
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #214
  • Edited 5:54pm Nov 13, 2023 5:29pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting shrips
PT49 Looks a good simple profitable strategy. Are there any rule changes to the first post? I noticed your daily trade on the GJ on the 3rd Nov did not have a wick greater than 2/3 of the candle(2nd Nov). Thanks
Maybe something wrong with either yours or my computer time settings, I don't know.
jakartamafia charts are different to mine also
Some of his qualifying candles are NOT qualifying candles on my charts.
I have no idea if somethings wrong in my settings of Tradingview or not.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #215
  • Nov 13, 2023 6:13pm Nov 13, 2023 6:13pm
Quoting pt49
{quote} Maybe something wrong with either yours or my computer time settings, I don't know. jakartamafia charts are different to mine also Some of his qualifying candles are NOT qualifying candles on my charts. I have no idea if somethings wrong in my settings of Tradingview or not.
I think I found the problem... the data feed... jakartamafia has FXCM and I have Oanda for audnzd.
FXCM is not available on my TV for audnzd
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #216
  • Nov 13, 2023 6:36pm Nov 13, 2023 6:36pm
Quoting jakartamafia
{quote} {image} TP Hit, yeay ! {image}
Your EURJPY trade 3rd Nov is clearly NOT valid.
The tail is way too short.
May be something wacky in your script.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #217
  • Edited 8:03pm Nov 13, 2023 7:32pm | Edited 8:03pm
Quoting pt49
{quote} I think I found the problem... the data feed... jakartamafia has FXCM and I have Oanda for audnzd. FXCM is not available on my TV for audnzd
It's all make sense now! That's why I love it when you suggest to trade this in the higher timeframe, it also reduces the risk of the difference of broker. Fun fact, I even don't trade on FXCM or OANDA neither. Thans for bringing this to my attention.

Regarding the EURJPY 1H (at least on FXCM) / I got the point and notice maybe I perceive the rules differently. Will do check the code later on

It should be correct. Open 159.801 ; Close 159.830 ; High 159.862 ; Low 159.711 ;

Body size (close - open) is 2.9 pips.
And the whole candle (high - low) size is 15.1 pips.
So the candle size is around 5x compared to its body.

Is it a wrong one to be taken?
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
  • #218
  • Nov 13, 2023 8:01pm Nov 13, 2023 8:01pm
Quoting jakartamafia
{quote} It's all make sense now! That's why I love it when you suggest to trade this in the higher timeframe, it also reduces the risk of the difference of broker. Fun fact, I even don't trade on FXCM or OANDA neither. Thans for bringing this to my attention. Regarding the EURJPY 1H (at least on FXCM) It should be correct. Open 159.801 ; Close 159.830 ; High 159.862 ; Low 159.711 ; Body size (close - open) is 2.9 pips. And the whole candle (high - low) size is 15.1 pips. So the candle size is around 5x compared to its body. Is it a wrong one to...
This candle highlighted yellow is it.
The the body and top wick is clearly more than a third.
The long wick is clearly less than 2 thirds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ1.png Size: 50 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #219
  • Nov 13, 2023 8:23pm Nov 13, 2023 8:23pm
Quoting jakartamafia
Long Opportunity: CHFJPY Based on H4. Entry with stop order 1 pips above the high and stop-loss 1 pips below the low. .
You are using different entry rules to myself.

IMPORTANT!!
I enter the trade at the "Open" of the next candle (or near as I can, using Market Order).
By entering at qually candle high or low is sometimes costing you a lot of pips.

OTHER TRADERS reading be aware of this.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #220
  • Nov 13, 2023 9:04pm Nov 13, 2023 9:04pm
Quoting pt49
{quote} You are using different entry rules to myself. IMPORTANT!! I enter the trade at the "Open" of the next candle (or near as I can, using Market Order). By entering at qually candle high or low is sometimes costing you a lot of pips. OTHER TRADERS reading be aware of this.
I am aware of this since I believe stop-order helps me to "not-chasing" trades already running (psychologically).
And at the same time, it gives a pinch of extra edge. It opens a trade in the direction of our favour.

And with the rules, the wick should cost us an extra couple pips. And as far as I understand, I am more than happy to pay this premium for extra edges.
Lastly, take a look at this kind of situation. Not always, but can be prevented.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 36 KB


By the end of the day, as a trader we need to be responsible for our own trades #YouDoYou
Yes, Jakarta is in Indonesia.
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