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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #87,401
  • Oct 22, 2023 1:14pm Oct 22, 2023 1:14pm
USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is sideways as it tackles the 150.00 horizonal resistance (purple), seen on the weekly time frame. As recent liquidity sweep was southward, we may see a northward market engineering for liquidity grab.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #87,402
  • Oct 23, 2023 9:33am Oct 23, 2023 9:33am
Bonds topping out today, this is natural
Cumulative volume dropping below zero

last time this happened price dropped over 8000 points
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #87,403
  • Oct 23, 2023 9:39am Oct 23, 2023 9:39am
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last time volume dropped below the cumulative volume zero line
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #87,404
  • Oct 24, 2023 11:34am Oct 24, 2023 11:34am
Here is the same chart zoomed out, 4 hour. The market breathes

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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #87,405
  • Oct 24, 2023 11:38am Oct 24, 2023 11:38am
Tomorrow by 6:30-7:00 Mst the trend will be set, todays tricks, tomorrows trend with treats
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #87,406
  • Oct 25, 2023 6:57am Oct 25, 2023 6:57am
Quoting COGSx86
Tomorrow by 6:30-7:00 Mst the trend will be set, todays tricks, tomorrows trend with treats {image}
Best two weeks of trading IMO
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,407
  • Oct 25, 2023 6:59am Oct 25, 2023 6:59am
Quoting COGSx86
Bonds topping out today, this is natural Cumulative volume dropping below zero last time this happened price dropped over 8000 points {image} {image}
8000 points? Bonds... Or UJ???
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,408
  • Oct 25, 2023 6:59am Oct 25, 2023 6:59am
Havnt traded this pair in years. Opened it up today and see it near the all time high.... I am thinking we can see a really nice drop over the next few weeks. I am short as of right now
"Anger clouds the mind. Turned inward, it is an unconquerable enemy."
  • #87,409
  • Oct 25, 2023 7:14am Oct 25, 2023 7:14am
Quoting mastersplint
Havnt traded this pair in years. Opened it up today and see it near the all time high.... I am thinking we can see a really nice drop over the next few weeks. I am short as of right now
Nice view. What's more is that doesn't even factor in the wishes of the BOJ who have and likely will continue to intervene selling dollars and buying yen that'll help your position. Even more is on a longer term view the US dollar might be bound to go lower as we are (or have) reaching a peak in interest rate hikes obviously meaning at some point they'll cut them.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #87,410
  • Oct 25, 2023 7:17am Oct 25, 2023 7:17am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} Nice view. What's more is that doesn't even factor in the wishes of the BOJ who have and likely will continue to intervene selling dollars and buying yen that'll help your position. Even more is on a longer term view the US dollar might be bound to go lower as we are/have reached a peak in interest rate hikes obviously meaning at some point they'll cut them.
Great minds think alike. Theres only so much manipulation the USD can do with its dollar. What currency strives when markets are down? somehow the yen everytime if im not mistaken.
"Anger clouds the mind. Turned inward, it is an unconquerable enemy."
  • #87,411
  • Oct 25, 2023 9:00am Oct 25, 2023 9:00am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} Nice view. What's more is that doesn't even factor in the wishes of the BOJ who have and likely will continue to intervene selling dollars and buying yen that'll help your position. Even more is on a longer term view the US dollar might be bound to go lower as we are (or have) reaching a peak in interest rate hikes obviously meaning at some point they'll cut them.


This thinking makes me think higher. because no one expects it.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,412
  • Oct 25, 2023 9:16am Oct 25, 2023 9:16am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote}[/highlight] This thinking makes me think higher. because no one expects it.
"The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself."
Seeking Fair Value
  • #87,413
  • Oct 25, 2023 9:24am Oct 25, 2023 9:24am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} "The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself."

Awww spit.. Confucius in the house!
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,414
  • Oct 25, 2023 10:57am Oct 25, 2023 10:57am
My spread is changing every second. UJ may drop or take off any minute. Personally I would like to see it drop so that I can buy again.
  • #87,415
  • Edited Oct 26, 2023 7:03am Oct 25, 2023 11:38am | Edited Oct 26, 2023 7:03am
Like everyone else, I think intervention is imminent. But, it is all about timing!

BOJ has to do it when there is no real important news that would counter the effort. Lat years intervention(s) happened on October 21, 2022 and November 10, 2022 which were during a period of no important High Impact news. Even the Nov 2, 2022 interest rate hike by the Feds did not do much because it was already expected and factored in.

Looking at the calendar, it appears that there is a good window for intervention after next week's Fed rate decision and NFP.

I always think about how much the Japanese have in foreign currency reserves and that interventions that support the Yen would help them build and grow that currency reserve. Selling US for ¥150 and re-buying at ¥135 for example. If they sell $200B at ¥150 they can buy back about $220B, that is a $20B gain in few weeks . Win-Win situation for the Japanese. if you look at the history of Japanese currency reserve, it grew by approximately $40B from October to November 2022.

Why don't they do that often? someone may ask, because they do not want to be classified as currency manipulators

Just my humble opinion

Cheers to all!!
  • #87,416
  • Oct 25, 2023 12:49pm Oct 25, 2023 12:49pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} 8000 points? Bonds... Or UJ???

UJ,
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #87,417
  • Oct 25, 2023 1:42pm Oct 25, 2023 1:42pm
that was uneventful.... Still in short positions
"Anger clouds the mind. Turned inward, it is an unconquerable enemy."
  • #87,418
  • Oct 25, 2023 2:53pm Oct 25, 2023 2:53pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} UJ,
Hmmm. Well tomorrow starts the lead in to FOMC. If we are headed down should start tomorrow
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,419
  • Oct 25, 2023 3:33pm Oct 25, 2023 3:33pm
I've been long this pair what seems like forever now but I don't expect the trend to last much longer.

Yen long positions in the futures market are more than double short positions.

Options in November and December don't look much better.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #87,420
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:07pm Oct 25, 2023 4:07pm
We're getting one more rate hike in November and the BOJ is gonna intervene in the fx market.

Not much left to be bullish about.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
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