Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 573 | Forex Factory

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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #11,441
  • Oct 24, 2023 12:49pm Oct 24, 2023 12:49pm
In short the Long Term Underlying Trend goes from 2.500 to 25.000 with oscillations +/- 5.000
Then the Underlying Trend concurrs for more than 80% to Price Action
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  • #11,442
  • Edited Oct 25, 2023 5:44am Oct 24, 2023 1:03pm | Edited Oct 25, 2023 5:44am
DAX DAILY

You can observe some close similarity (and some differences) between both chart.

That is the Principle of Commonality
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  • #11,443
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:48am Oct 25, 2023 4:48am
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  • #11,444
  • Oct 25, 2023 5:13am Oct 25, 2023 5:13am
Capturing wave 5:
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  • #11,445
  • Oct 25, 2023 5:16am Oct 25, 2023 5:16am
Late entry into wave 5
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  • #11,446
  • Oct 25, 2023 6:03am Oct 25, 2023 6:03am
Quoting tmpascoe
There's approximately 70 days until the end of the year. The values coming off the pink CMA (left rectangle) will likely be less than the values being added (right rectangle), causing the pink CMA to rise. Based on my calculations, even if Bitcoin falls to 27000 by year end, the pink CMA will still be pointing higher. What does this mean for crypto? It means the 3yr, 18m and 9m cycles have all bottomed and are now trending higher. Large cycles tend to have large amplitudes (Hurst's principle of Proportionality) leading to large price movements...
Terry when you write It means the 3yr, 18m and 9m cycles There are a lot of hidden informations in this quote

a) in the present "Nominal Model" used by Hurst enthusisasts like David Hickson in the Sentient Trader Software there are NO 9 Months and 3 Years "Cycles".

b) Problems , even for these Hurst "experts" is that these "cycles " are listed in Hurst's first book Profit Magic

c) Hurst enthusiasts expetys NEVER take into acoount that it exixt s in the work of Hurst (PM + the Course) THREE DIFFERENT NOMINAL MODEL. These experts never discussed these changes in the original model and never draw the consequences of such changes
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  • #11,447
  • Oct 25, 2023 6:14am Oct 25, 2023 6:14am
Quoting tmpascoe
There's approximately 70 days until the end of the year. The values coming off the pink CMA (left rectangle) will likely be less than the values being added (right rectangle), causing the pink CMA to rise. Based on my calculations, even if Bitcoin falls to 27000 by year end, the pink CMA will still be pointing higher. What does this mean for crypto? It means the 3yr, 18m and 9m cycles have all bottomed and are now trending higher. Large cycles tend to have large amplitudes (Hurst's principle of Proportionality) leading to large price movements in...
one part of the inconsequences of the Hurst enthusiasts experts is that they minimize even ignore the 3 relationship between successive adjacent cycles.

Hurst wrote that the relationship between 2 adjacent cycles is 2 and only 3 when in his "nominal model" the 18 months cycle jumps suddenly to the next cycle, the 4.5 year cycle . Hence using a factor 3. Hurst never explained why such a change and Hurst enthusiasts experts do not care at all.
  • #11,448
  • Oct 25, 2023 6:42am Oct 25, 2023 6:42am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} one part of the inconsequences of the Hurst enthusiasts experts is that they minimize even ignore the 3 relationship between successive adjacent cycles. Hurst wrote that the relationship between 2 adjacent cycles is 2 and only 3 when in his "nominal model" the 18 months cycle jumps suddenly to the next cycle, the 4.5 year cycle . Hence using a factor 3. Hurst never explained why such a change and Hurst enthusiasts experts do not care at all.
Interesting!
As you know I "tune" my CMAs to match the spacing of the FPs. It was that "tuning" that identified those nominal cycles not the fact that Hurst mentions them in Profit Magic.
That alone probably supports an argument that these cycles do exist even though they are ignored by Hurst enthusiasts.
  • #11,449
  • Oct 25, 2023 7:15am Oct 25, 2023 7:15am
Is it likely that Hurst merely simplified the nominal cycles he identified in "Profit Magic" for his course? It looks likely when you compare the two.

And if that is the case you would have to question the validity of identifying nominal cycles that perhaps don't really exist. That would be a huge conundrum for those trading as per the Hurst course, where identifying those cycles is paramount.
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  • #11,450
  • Oct 25, 2023 3:47pm Oct 25, 2023 3:47pm
NQ 1 Hour

we are obvious ly in the 5th Legs of a 5 Legs Down Move

Anyway we have already some practical rule

If we have a 3 Wave Swing we have a main Focal Point at the middle of Wave 2
If we have a 5 Wave Swing we have a main Focal Point at the middle of Wave 3
If we have a 7 Wave Swing we have a main Focal Point at the middle of Wave 4
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  • #11,451
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:11pm Oct 25, 2023 4:11pm
NQ Daily
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  • #11,452
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:25pm Oct 25, 2023 4:25pm
NQ 1 Hour

5 Legs Down Move
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  • #11,453
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:30pm Oct 25, 2023 4:30pm
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  • #11,454
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:36pm Oct 25, 2023 4:36pm
Quoting tmpascoe
Is it likely that Hurst merely simplified the nominal cycles he identified in "Profit Magic" for his course? It looks likely when you compare the two. And if that is the case you would have to question the validity of identifying nominal cycles that perhaps don't really exist. That would be a huge conundrum for those trading as per the Hurst course, where identifying those cycles is paramount. {image}
About Cycles , Synchronicity and Nest of Lows

Cycles are not in synchrony for 2 structural reasons :

a) even if you are a strong believer in Hurst's LAST Nominal model you have a structural Mathematical BEAT due to the 2 and 3 relationship between adjacent cycle(s)
b) as real life is hard you have another deviation due to the Principle of Variation.

Both structural reasons being cumulative

If Cycles were in synchrony a) it would be visible, b) everybody would use Cycles

Trading would be so simple that everyone would make money from Cycles

If cycles were in perfect sync we would never see rounded bottoms or retests of the low. Every bottom would be a sharp bounce

another reason of why Cycles are not in synchrony ( not fully) is that in the first Nominal Model used by Hurst , page 33 of Profit Magic,1970, you have a 3 Year, a 12 months and a 6 Months cycle and a 3 months cycle. which Hurst does not use in the Course Model (1975).

Why have these Cycles disappeared 5 years later ?

Can these Cycles reappeared ? and create disturbances in the Phasing Analysis

moreover Hurst wrote, always page 33 *"The 26 weeks and 13 weeks components often appear in data as combined effect of 18 weeks nominal duration"* Can we imagine other "*combined effect "* for other Cycles?
  • #11,455
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:38pm Oct 25, 2023 4:38pm
A Case about Bottoms
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  • #11,456
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:56pm Oct 25, 2023 4:56pm
Jim Hurst did not come from nowhere. His book (1970) and later his course (1975) is based on the work and researches of the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC).

For example Hurst rename Synchronicity what Edward Dewey named "Synchrony" - for the newbie Synchronicity is the fact that short periods Cycles end to make a low at the Low of a Longer period Cycle.

In his book Profit Magic (1970) Jim Hurst made a synthesis of Cyclical Principles discovered by the FSC guys.

Moreover and more important for us Hurst translated these principles into a practical, workable system for the Dummies, a methodology that traders could use to trade the market and cash some dollars.

Notice that at the Time, (1970-1975) no common people had an access to computers which at the time were less powerful and versatile than your mobile phone
The guys of the FSC were not really interested by such trivial things as making some dollars. They were happy having demonstrated "there is a 6 years Cycle within the Stock Market" and other animal and human behaviour.

You can classify Hurst's work in his book Profit Magic this way :

a) Definition of 8 Cyclic Principles
b) Definition of a Cyclic " Model" to analyze the market - based on the 8 principles quoted above
c) Demonstration that ALL Technical Analysis patterns (Triangles, Heads & Shoulder , Wedges, Pennants, Double and Triple Botoms or Tops etc are the by-product of Cycles
d) Demonstration of the use of Envelopes to increase the visibility of Price Action and to determine visually the Dominant Cycles operating within Price Action
e) Understanding of the use of Centered Moving Averages as a proxy for Trend(s) and as a "filter" of Price Action
f) use of cyclical based tools - Centered Moving Averages crossings, Valid Trend Lines , Curvilinear Envelopes as a help for Trading
g)Trading examples - Edge Band trading / Mid Band Trading
h) Mathematical annexes where Hurst link Spectral analysis, Fourier Analysis, Parabolic Interpolation, Trigonometrric Curve Fitting and Frequency response Characteristics to his work and cycles
  • #11,457
  • Oct 25, 2023 4:59pm Oct 25, 2023 4:59pm
Hurst Nominal(s) Models

Fact is there are 3 Cyclic or Nominal “Model(s)” we can find in Hurst works

a) – the Nominal Model described Chapter 2, page 33 of his book « Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing” published in 1970.
b) the Nominal Model described in the Course published in 1973 / 1975 by his service to investors named Cyclitec.
Lesson N° 1 – How Price Action Works – page 29 to 33
c) the Simplified Model used in the same course

why 3 “Models” ?
what are the differences ?
did Hurst explained the slippage from one “model” to the others ?

The Nominal model in Profit Magic – 1970
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  • #11,458
  • Oct 25, 2023 5:02pm Oct 25, 2023 5:02pm
Hereunder you will find the same initial ” Nominal Model” expressed :

– in calendar days (CD) (I have not taken into account the bi-sextiles years)
– in theoretical trading days (TD) (5 trading days (TD) per week
– in “real” trading days based on an average annualized count issued from a study of an american trader rounded to 256 Trading Days (TD) .

I use also this “average” – 256 TD – for my time scaling in my Gann Studies .
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  • #11,459
  • Oct 25, 2023 5:04pm Oct 25, 2023 5:04pm
Hereunder you will find the Nominal Model described in the Cyclitec Services Course (1975)
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  • #11,460
  • Oct 25, 2023 5:07pm Oct 25, 2023 5:07pm
If you compare both Nominal Models the difference between the initial Model of Profit Magic and the Nominal Model proposed in the Cyclitec Course, you can observe that :
– the 3 years Cycle,
– the 1 year cycle .
– the 6 months cycle
– the 3 months cycle
have disappeared without explanation

Then you observe the appearance in the model of cycles expressed in days
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