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Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System

  • #241
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:19am Jun 7, 2007 4:19am
Even if it says my setup I do not do something different than Spud. I put on my screen all time frames one next to the other one because I have 2 screens and I have plenty of room. Since I am only looking what is happening the precise moment I do not need to stack them. For backtesting it would help to pile them. Then I save it as a template with the name of the pair. I have a mouse that has two extra buttons that you can program. So I assigned the value of F5 (function F5) to the extra mouse buttons. So when I press these buttons I can move from one template to the next, ie. moving from one currency to the next. I find this useful for me and someone might also find it useful.
Regards
  • #242
  • Jun 7, 2007 6:11am Jun 7, 2007 6:11am
Here's chart with 6EMA (more conservative then 3) and stoch14,3,3 (more conservative then 5,3,3).

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/8098/votjq9.gif

Price crosses fib at 1st vertical line. MA - at 2nd. Two questions:

1. MA's cross with fib is lagging. Sometime we can take some pips, sometime - SL. When do we have to wait MA cross fib and when do we have to wait price cross fib only?

2. Stoch is over 76,4 at the signal moment. But it's there for a long time already. Have we to take this trade or have we to wait for the setups when MA-fib-cross and Stoch-76,4-cross became at almost same time?

Thank you!
  • #243
  • Edited 12:46pm Jun 7, 2007 7:15am | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting aktaurus
Hello webdevjeff!



Look at my chart please and could you post yours? I really do not undertand how could you entered short.

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/1720/votux3.gif



How do you plot 76.4 fib at 241.91?

Please show you vision!

Thank you!
Hi Aktaurus

Will attach the charts when I get back from work.

It was a Long and it was my trailing stops that pulled the trade at 241.91, which was a good point as we are currently down at 240.96, will be analysing the charts when I get back to see if there would have been a good Escaltor entry here for a sell.



I hope to set my email alerts up this weekend so I can catch more trades during work hours :-)

Regards



Jeff.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 07052007gbpjpy.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #244
  • Edited 12:15pm Jun 7, 2007 11:46am | Edited 12:15pm
  •  iya
  • | Joined Oct 2006 | Status: always protect yourself | 129 Posts
Here's the solution, for all who want to backtest the system but are too lazy to draw the fibs. I simply converted the #SpudFibo indicator into a script, that uses the rightmost bar of your chart as the "current" bar, to draw the fibs and display the stoch values.
So, put the F12 key to good use and have fun!

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/1...testingnx0.gif
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #SpudFibo.Backtesting.mq4   11 KB | 1,224 downloads
  • #245
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:47pm Jun 7, 2007 12:47pm
Quoting iya
Here's the solution, for all who want to backtest the system but are too lazy to draw the fibs. I simply converted the #SpudFibo indicator into a script, that uses the rightmost bar of your chart as the "current" bar, to draw the fibs and display the stoch values.
So, put the F12 key to good use and have fun!

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/1...testingnx0.gif
Cool stuff once more Iya

Jeff
  • #246
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:50pm Jun 7, 2007 12:50pm
I added more fibo #s to the indicator.

http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/8...072007ajx5.gif
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #SpudFibo.mq4   8 KB | 1,439 downloads
  • #247
  • Jun 7, 2007 2:51pm Jun 7, 2007 2:51pm
Quoting webdevjeff
Hi Aktaurus

Will attach the charts when I get back from work.

It was a Long and it was my trailing stops that pulled the trade at 241.91, which was a good point as we are currently down at 240.96, will be analysing the charts when I get back to see if there would have been a good Escaltor entry here for a sell.



I hope to set my email alerts up this weekend so I can catch more trades during work hours :-)

Regards



Jeff.......
Hi Jeff!

See your chart. But could you please explain: basing on which part of this method you entered long and at which candle?

Thank you!
  • #248
  • Jun 7, 2007 3:11pm Jun 7, 2007 3:11pm
Dear friends, author and co-authors of this thread and method!

Please answer my posts ## 237 239 240 242 . I ask you very much because this strategy is very interesting and these moments are very important for me.

Thank you anyway (as minimum right for this thread) and for any answers!

P.S. Excuse me for my English and a river of charts. Hope my questions and your answers will help people to know this method beter and make it more and more beautiful.
  • #249
  • Edited 4:16pm Jun 7, 2007 4:02pm | Edited 4:16pm
Hey Spud,

I have been following your thread(s) since the very beginning. You have been tremendous. Thank you!

As far as the chart on post #220, what graphics program did you use to cut and paste the different time frame stochiastics and how did you do it?

Adding the “true” stochs on one chart really gives a clearer picture on how the basics of your system works.

Thanx in advance
J. Stone
  • #250
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:15pm Jun 7, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting aktaurus
Hi Jeff!

See your chart. But could you please explain: basing on which part of this method you entered long and at which candle?

Thank you!
Hi aktaurus

Came in where the green dots start, on the red dotted stoch (5,3,3)

I then trailed my stops by fib levels and then exited 76.4 (or 241.91)

I use Banzai's latest and greatest (Thanks banzai) as I prefer the Fib drawings, but I follow spud rules (chuckle mostly for entries, ie sometimes speculative according to volativity).

Would be really chuffed for spud to layour the ground on this 100 pip escalator as a learner though! (sooner I get set up with MT4 at work the better)

lets see what tomorrow brings + always read the predictions from your broker as well, using MIg for my demo and now trading Oanda (Yep my first actual trade and a winner!)

C u Soon AK

Jeff...................
  • #251
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:27pm Jun 7, 2007 4:27pm
Spud,

Just like to say thanks, your systems have actually been the first impetus for me to move from paper to money. Yes my own money.

Have paper traded now on various systems for over a year and this has for me had the best risk/reward for the amount of time and money I can put into it.

I have not the luxury of being able to trade all day as I am a computer programmer (chuckle) for FX markets (get a good kick of news though!)

But with a few email alerts and just missing a few pips in good trending(fib sys) and even rangng (80/20 esc) it is possible to rack up some excellent pips.

Fulfills the KISS (Keep It stupid simple) prinicples perfectly and with everyone elses participation (Banzai, Iya, Skyline, BrandJt et Al) makes it easier and accessible.

Spud and the rest you are a gems (olde London cockney speak for good olde fellows!)

Thanks...................Jeff......
  • #252
  • Jun 7, 2007 4:45pm Jun 7, 2007 4:45pm
Aktaurus

I have been also using and USD/CAD with spuds sys

There was deffinately a serious level of support at 1.0559 but I did kinda keep to the rules on this one and entered at 1.0632 (Long) and exited at 1.0659. Seemed good and note the candles all trading nicely above the SMA 5.

Not so sure on carries so have exited plus its time for bed here in the UK

Tomorrow friends

jeff.............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 07052007usdcad.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #253
  • Jun 8, 2007 11:50am Jun 8, 2007 11:50am
Quoting aktaurus
Here's chart with 6EMA (more conservative then 3) and stoch14,3,3 (more conservative then 5,3,3).



Price crosses fib at 1st vertical line. MA - at 2nd. Two questions:

1. MA's cross with fib is lagging. Sometime we can take some pips, sometime - SL. When do we have to wait MA cross fib and when do we have to wait price cross fib only?

2. Stoch is over 76,4 at the signal moment. But it's there for a long time already. Have we to take this trade or have we to wait for the setups when MA-fib-cross and Stoch-76,4-cross became at almost same time?

Thank you!
Here's a broader picture of what is happening with MTF STochastics included. We can see that the 4H stochastic is down trending and the first opportunity for a short entry comes with a "Escalator to Pips" trade entry when the 15M/30M/1H stochastic cross the 76.4 line headed towards the 4H stochastic. By the time our stochastics reach 23.6 we are in a great position where the 4H has crossed the 23.6 and the price has broken 0 Fibonacci. As well we have the 15M/30M/1H all crossing 23.6 a the same time the EMA 6 crosses.

So to get an early set up is to trade MTF stochastics (Escalator to Pips) and we are then in a huge advantage to continue the short entry.
Attached Image
  • #254
  • Jun 8, 2007 8:11pm Jun 8, 2007 8:11pm
Here's a really good chart and although it does not show a FIB breakout, it shows why there was no FIB breakout and the other trades that could have been made in a 2 day period.

At the start of June 5th the 4H stochastic is below the 23.6 level meaning we are in a down trend. The 15/30/1H are all spaggetti up near the 76.4 level but they have not converged so there is no short trade there. If we missed the convergence and traded short it didn't hurt us.

The 4H crossed up at 23.6 meaning we are now in a long trade situation. The 15/30/1H converge and cross the 76.4 up with the 4H rising. In this circumstance this is a good long trade opportunity when the 4H is climbing. So we have a long trade here until the 1H crosses back down below 76.4

It looks like we could pull an escalator to pips trade with the 15/30/1H crossing the 76.4 headed down but the 4H is way too high to make a short trade. Again if you entered the short trade it wouldn't have hurt you....but that is a risky trade.

When the 15/30/1H cross the 23.6 on the way back up, the 4H is still high and in a long rising stance, so this would have been a signal to go long in an escalator trade. When any of the 15/30 or 1H hit 76.4 it would be time to exit since the 4H was falling and we had good pips.

There is a possible short entry with the reverse of the 1H but it doesn't quite cross the 76.4 line but the 4H is crossing the 50 level and falling, so this would have been a short but not clear entry.

Watching all this happening would have given some good indications timing a Fib Breakout but even without a breakout there was plenty of opportunity to pip.

When the 4H stochastic is on the move like this, trading can be a little trickier and playing the 15/30/1H going from 20 to 80 and back to 20 will give good returns....just follow the 4H.
Attached Image
  • #255
  • Jun 9, 2007 7:31am Jun 9, 2007 7:31am
Spud,

First let me thank you for your unconditional generosity......


I have been studying the MTF Stoch approach and I have one basic question:

It seems to me that after the confirmation of the 80/20 or 76.4/23.6 cross in the 4hr. that the if we look for confirmation on the smaller timeframes further into the cross there is less of a chance for whipsaws. Of course this would be more of an issue with the 15m than the 1hr. So in other words, maybe if I am shooting for 20 pips, it would be wise to wait for the 15 min cross to develop futher down before entering.

One more question... If the 15/30/60 timeframes are giving you a short signal and the 4hr is given you a long signal (see the 9:00gmt on the 8th of June) is that tradeable?

No great discovery, but perhaps a sign that I am beginning to understand stoch and think for myself.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #256
  • Jun 9, 2007 10:14am Jun 9, 2007 10:14am
Please limit the size of charts to 600x600 - otherwise we all have to scroll left and right to read these posts...

Thank you
Old Benjamin was right
  • #257
  • Jun 9, 2007 5:48pm Jun 9, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting dunlop432
Hey Spud,

I have been following your thread(s) since the very beginning. You have been tremendous. Thank you!

As far as the chart on post #220, what graphics program did you use to cut and paste the different time frame stochiastics and how did you do it?

Adding the “true” stochs on one chart really gives a clearer picture on how the basics of your system works.

Thanx in advance
J. Stone
PhotoImpact V10
  • #258
  • Jun 9, 2007 5:59pm Jun 9, 2007 5:59pm
Quoting moneda
Spud,

First let me thank you for your unconditional generosity......


I have been studying the MTF Stoch approach and I have one basic question:

It seems to me that after the confirmation of the 80/20 or 76.4/23.6 cross in the 4hr. that the if we look for confirmation on the smaller timeframes further into the cross there is less of a chance for whipsaws. Of course this would be more of an issue with the 15m than the 1hr. So in other words, maybe if I am shooting for 20 pips, it would be wise to wait for the 15 min cross to develop futher down before entering.

One more question... If the 15/30/60 timeframes are giving you a short signal and the 4hr is given you a long signal (see the 9:00gmt on the 8th of June) is that tradeable?

No great discovery, but perhaps a sign that I am beginning to understand stoch and think for myself.
The most important trait is convergence of the stochastics crossing the 76.4 (80) or 23.6(20) levels with the 15/30/1H and hopefully pointed to move to the 4H.

Re: June 8th. I'll post a chart soon but in the mean time; It is not a short trade I would chase since the 1H is not well timed and down quite a bit from the 15/30. The other big negative is the 4H looks like it will cross and rise above 23.6 leading to a long. The trade here is not until the long trade at 12:00 gmt and even though the 1H isn't taking off from below 23.6, I'd put the weight behind the 4H crossing the 23.6 and rising since the 15/30 have joined in too....bound to make a few pips.
  • #259
  • Jun 9, 2007 8:55pm Jun 9, 2007 8:55pm
Spud,

Yes, the 12gmt long would have been very nice.... Take Profit near the 76.4 could have been(+/-): 20 pips/15min, 80 pips/30 & 1hr.

Thanks,
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #260
  • Jun 11, 2007 6:47am Jun 11, 2007 6:47am
Spud,


Please look at this chart and tell me if I have incorporated all the tools to trade any of the Spud Sytem. I have the same chart for all the timeframes.

Thank You.
Attached Image
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
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