Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

CyclesFan
@CyclesFan
·
Sep 29
$NDX - On Wednesday it bottomed at the 130 day MA which probably ended the correction.
In 2021 it made 3 intermediate term lows at the same MA. It was the 2nd 9% correction in 2023.
The correction was wave 4 off the December 2022 low.
Wave 5 is likely to reach the ATH at 16765.

COURTESY OF CHRIS GRAFTON

SP500 E-Mini Update

https://notes.hurstcycles.com/r/1b23...2-b640903d28ac

Stalking the 40 day cycle trough here.

Price is aggressively testing the timezone for the 40 day cycle trough after what looks to be a five wave count down from the 40 day cycle peak of 15 September. We still do not have confirmation, but its worth an alert here.
The levels to watch are circa 4,330 to 4,342 for an upside cross of the 5 day VTL and the 5 day FLD.
If the VTL is crossed then we will assume that a 10 day cycle trough is in place.
Because the cycles synchronise at their troughs we can cautiously start assuming that the 20 day and 40 day cycle troughs are in place.
The 10 day FLD and VTL are positioned circa 4,365 and 4,369 respectively.
A good up cross here will confirm the 20 day cycle trough and at this stage we would say the 40 day trough is also in place and risk is to the upside with the new 40 day cycle we have been stalking these past few weeks.
Looking across to the Dollar Index and away from cycles for a moment, 9 day RSI at 84 is as high as it has been since the end of September price peak in 2022 and looks rotational. We expect the two series to inversely correlate at this stage of the cycle.

E-Mini Daily

Envelopes

Price oscillates around CMA 256

Price oscillates around CMA 128

Both CMA's 256 and 128 show the same slope; + 14°

NQ 1 H Follow Up

EURUSD 1 H

EURUSD 1 H

Price oscillates around the Cntered Moving Average 256 Time Units which summarizes the TREND

NQ1:

EURUSD 5 mn

Envelopes

NQ 1 Hour

EURUSD 5 mn

Envelopes