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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #11,201
  • Sep 21, 2023 4:36am Sep 21, 2023 4:36am
More than one way to skin a cat.....
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  • #11,202
  • Sep 21, 2023 4:37am Sep 21, 2023 4:37am
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  • #11,203
  • Edited 7:54am Sep 21, 2023 6:20am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting Petchiram
Parisboy, I'm new to this Hurst. It seems you are working in tradingview. Is it necessary to do the Hurst analysis in charts with trading day's candles or we can do it on both kind of charts (charts showing calendar days as well as charts showing trading days) ?
Petchiram thanks for your interest.

Your question is a routine usual one in "cyclic analysis" .

IMHO when adressed by so called "specialists" it is a stupid one (the question not the guys)

Why because it just shows IMHO that they have not thought enough about it and most of the time do not really trade.

I will elaborate later on the subject in following posts.
  • #11,204
  • Sep 21, 2023 7:16am Sep 21, 2023 7:16am
Parisboy,

Yes, you are correct. This question arises not by testing out the analysis method or do some mock trade. Further Mr.Christopher mentioned in his mastering hurst analysis book somewhere that it's necessary to use charts with trading days and not calendar days. So that's where the confusion begins for a newcomer. I did a little bit of phasing analysis today. It seems that both the charts (candles showing trading days as well as calendar days) has their own drawbacks and needs to be corrected accordingly. As usual if we combine more technicals along with that analysis it may yield the best results. So learning a lot by the way from everywhere. Please share your elaborated ideas on this subject.

Thanks for your reply.. Cheers..
  • #11,205
  • Edited 2:37pm Sep 21, 2023 7:50am | Edited 2:37pm
basically "cyclic analysis" has its origin in seasonality noted in agricultural products (wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, meat etc) essentially the rythmic cycles of the moon and of the sun influencing the crops . Then research has derived on other planets influence on market price through "astronomy-astrology"

The question and the dispute about the couple Calendar Day /Trading Day IMHO has never been adressed fully correctly.

This dispute concern(ed) mainly Daily Data series up to the late part of the XXth century.

Observe that It does not concern Weekly and Monthly series. One Time Unit = 1 Week or 1 Month = 1 Bar whatever subdivisions this Bar includes . What if a "week" included 3 Trading "Days" ? Think about it.
  • #11,206
  • Sep 21, 2023 7:53am Sep 21, 2023 7:53am
Quoting Petchiram
Parisboy, Yes, you are correct. This question arises not by testing out the analysis method or do some mock trade. Further Mr.Christopher mentioned in his mastering hurst analysis book somewhere that it's necessary to use charts with trading days and not calendar days. So that's where the confusion begins for a newcomer. I did a little bit of phasing analysis today. It seems that both the charts (candles showing trading days as well as calendar days) has their own drawbacks and needs to be corrected accordingly. As usual if we combine more technicals...
Petchiram Could you indicate the exact references in Chris Grafon Book ? TIA
  • #11,207
  • Edited 2:40pm Sep 21, 2023 8:21am | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Petchiram thanks for your interest. Your question is a routine usual one in "cyclic analysis" . IMHO when adressed by so called "specialists" it is a stupid one (the question not the guys) Why because it just shows IMHO that they have not thought enough about it and most of the time do not really trade. I will elaborate later on the subject in following posts.
the basic idea on the subject is often quoted by David Hickson of Sentient Trader " Cycles do not sleep at night and during the week-end !". This the point where "cycle analysis" shows its origin in " Astronomy/Astrology" . I call that "the Moon-Sun connection". Complexifying guys then derived on other planets influence on market price.

Obviously IF you think that both the Sun and the Moon(or some other planets or a combination of other planets) have some influence on market price(s), you can not ask them (the planets) "do not move at night and during the week ends". They would not care. Hence the idea " cycles do not sleep".

What these guys (the cycle analysts) do not take into account is that we use Bars as a REPRESENTATION of a market price. We have seen that for weekly and monthly bars there were no problems 1 Bar = 1 month or 1 week.

But even then how many minutes or hours of trading represent these bars . Look at the Table hereunder :
a DAX Trading Day is equivalent to 11 hours of trading
all others european indexes to 8 hours 30 minutes of trading
Shangai and Tokyo to 4 hours of trading
Nasdaq and NYSE and Canada to 6 hours 30 minutes

Are these Trading Days equivalent - if expressed in 1 minutes can we really compare them rationally ?
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  • #11,208
  • Edited 9:01am Sep 21, 2023 8:36am | Edited 9:01am
basically at night there are no quotations for a 4 Hours trading index or an 11 hours trading index. This fact do not disturb or question really the "cycle analysts" because they have their "daily" bar.

More complicated is the week end problem. Here the analysts tell us "simple.we have to extrapolate the data"

Note that most often the same guys promote and use "numerical analysis" "spectral analysis" "periodograms" to determine "scientifically" and "mathematically" the most dominant frequencies operating within the said data series. Generally with the help of Fourier Analysis (and the like) whose reality is certified by "Bartels tests"

Question : what is (numerically) the value of a data series which includes 28,57 % (2/7) of "artificial/extrapolated / averaged data (that moreover you can not trade) ?
  • #11,209
  • Edited 9:05am Sep 21, 2023 8:46am | Edited 9:05am
by the way I trade mainly the Bitcoin. BTCUSD 1 mn. which Trades 24/24 ..... which solves and negates all above questions !

otherwise in Daily I use Trading Days
  • #11,210
  • Edited 7:01pm Sep 21, 2023 4:30pm | Edited 7:01pm
Nasdaq futures NQ

GOOD TOOLS
GOOD SCENARIO
FORECAT RIGHT ON TRACK

3 Weeks ago
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  • #11,211
  • Sep 21, 2023 4:59pm Sep 21, 2023 4:59pm
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  • #11,212
  • Sep 21, 2023 5:00pm Sep 21, 2023 5:00pm
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  • #11,213
  • Sep 22, 2023 2:21am Sep 22, 2023 2:21am
DAX m1:
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Stick to the plan!
  • #11,214
  • Sep 22, 2023 4:05am Sep 22, 2023 4:05am
BTCUSD 1 mn
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  • #11,215
  • Sep 22, 2023 4:06am Sep 22, 2023 4:06am
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  • #11,216
  • Sep 22, 2023 4:09am Sep 22, 2023 4:09am
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BTCUSD 1 mn

Envelopes
  • #11,217
  • Sep 22, 2023 4:18am Sep 22, 2023 4:18am
CMA 64 (lila) soon turning up for a safe Long Entry
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  • #11,218
  • Sep 22, 2023 4:20am Sep 22, 2023 4:20am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Petchiram Could you indicate the exact references in Chris Grafon Book ? TIA
Parisboy, I have attached the pictures. That is the area in the book where i got confused about to use which kind of chart ? Because christopher has mentioned timegaps for weekends and holidays should be shown in charts especially for intraday. Also when he was looking for a system where it can be changed from calendar time to trading time.
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  • #11,219
  • Sep 22, 2023 4:58am Sep 22, 2023 4:58am
Not my best long !

closed position
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  • #11,220
  • Edited 8:50am Sep 22, 2023 5:17am | Edited 8:50am
Quoting Petchiram
{quote} Parisboy, I have attached the pictures. That is the area in the book where i got confused about to use which kind of chart ? Because christopher has mentioned timegaps for weekends and holidays should be shown in charts especially for intraday. Also when he was looking for a system where it can be cha anged from calendar time to trading time. {image} {image}
Petchiram thanks a lot for your reference !

IMHO this Time Gap thing is in the real Hurst world something nearing bullshit !

Because I do not remember a Hurst chart in Profit Magic or in the Cyclitec course showing a time gap for week end or some discussion on what is the best method to use to extrapolate prices during week end .

I could have missed the point but I doubt it.

Why I suspect it is pure cycle analyst bullshitting for papers, books and conference ?

a) nobody I know has shown a serious (and even a non-serious) study showing comparatively in detail the pros and cons of both methodologies with and without "time gap" for week end

b) I learned a lot about how to use Hurst to forecast and trade with a guy well known at the time (2006-2009) Bob Chonski ( Airedale 88) and other guys involved in Hurst research. It was on a specific forum dedicated to Hurst. Time Gap was never a discussion subject at all.

c) Grafton charts in Hurst Notes do not address (and show) specifically the "Time Gap" but shows them without any extrapolation on the chart

Basically you cannot mix Calendar Days "Cycles" (80,40,20, 10 and 5 according to the nominal Model ) and other Cycles expressed in weeks (80/ 40 / 20) or Years (4,5 / 9 and 18). This is confusing in the analysis.

Moreover what if your software or platform do not show or can not show Calendar Days ?
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