Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 556 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #11,101
  • Edited 6:51am Sep 10, 2023 5:44am | Edited 6:51am
PICK IShares MINING AND METALS ETF Daily

Envelopes
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  • #11,102
  • Sep 10, 2023 6:47am Sep 10, 2023 6:47am
WOOD IShares Timber ETF Daily

Where is the Trend ?
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  • #11,103
  • Sep 10, 2023 12:21pm Sep 10, 2023 12:21pm
Quoting parisboy
Morning Alain, this is a link to my current indicator. https://www.tradingview.com/script/A...-CMA-Channels/
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  • #11,104
  • Edited Sep 11, 2023 4:46am Sep 10, 2023 2:43pm | Edited Sep 11, 2023 4:46am
E-Mini ES 30 mn

courtesy of ogbobby
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  • #11,105
  • Sep 10, 2023 2:59pm Sep 10, 2023 2:59pm
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  • #11,106
  • Sep 10, 2023 4:09pm Sep 10, 2023 4:09pm
Quoting OAPDave
https://youtu.be/6ZrO90AI0c8 Some numbers I am familiar with {image} {image}
Vortex mathematics is a hoax and has no basis; be cautious.
  • #11,107
  • Sep 11, 2023 2:26am Sep 11, 2023 2:26am
DAX M1, took profit because its very slow and overstrechted:
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Stick to the plan!
  • #11,108
  • Sep 11, 2023 5:06am Sep 11, 2023 5:06am
courtesy of Chris Grafton

US Dollar - closing in on top zone.

Top out is closing in on us.
In Monday's Macro Outlook we were looking for a push higher into a 20 day cycle peak with the slightly dubious assumption being that the 80 day cycle had peaked already - the peak phasing analysis suggested as much. However, taking a step back and ignoring the phasing analysis peak triangles of that note, with an 80 day cycle trough due around mid-October and with prices clearly still rising, we have to assume that price is still being sucked into the 80 day cycle peak. The composite cycle line has been plotted and we think its a reasonable roadmap except that it is hugging the peak too closely here - which can happen. Shifting this line up to hit 106 and then following the same trajectory going forward makes more sense to us.

The 80 day FLD was crossed up in the first week of August and projects to just under 106. This is a key level for another reason as well, its around the March spike high failure and we think its a natural liquidity magnet at this point in the cycle. We are therefore looking for about a point more upside before a topping formation starts.

The underlying trend is still robust with a young upswing of the 18 month cycle that kicked off in July still in force. And in fact there have been eight consecutive white weekly candles, you can see them in the headline image for this note. We are due a refresh and the dollar tends to power into tops.
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  • #11,109
  • Sep 11, 2023 2:03pm Sep 11, 2023 2:03pm
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  • #11,110
  • Sep 11, 2023 2:04pm Sep 11, 2023 2:04pm
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  • #11,111
  • Sep 12, 2023 2:04am Sep 12, 2023 2:04am
DAX M1
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Stick to the plan!
  • #11,112
  • Sep 12, 2023 2:43am Sep 12, 2023 2:43am
DAX m1 up again :
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Stick to the plan!
  • #11,113
  • Sep 12, 2023 4:04am Sep 12, 2023 4:04am
courtesy of Terry¨Pascoe
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  • #11,114
  • Sep 12, 2023 4:21am Sep 12, 2023 4:21am
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your white dot indicating that the CMA 104 (lila) 2 Years is changing direction
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  • #11,115
  • Sep 12, 2023 4:25am Sep 12, 2023 4:25am
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  • #11,116
  • Sep 12, 2023 5:35am Sep 12, 2023 5:35am
This Gold daily chart shows you little zig-zags oscillating modestly around a strong significant trend visible with naked eye.

In the real world in Daily the 80 Day cycle (frequency) in itself is not very useful.
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  • #11,117
  • Sep 12, 2023 5:36am Sep 12, 2023 5:36am
When the amplitude of your selected trading cycle (here 80 days ) is from 5 to 15 % of the amplitude of the underlying trend , this gives you this kind of chart
  • #11,118
  • Sep 12, 2023 5:37am Sep 12, 2023 5:37am
Tthere is anyway an 80 day "cycle" (frequency) within the data.

You can not trade this "cyclicity" on daily but on lower timeframe - 1 Hour - for example
  • #11,119
  • Sep 12, 2023 5:39am Sep 12, 2023 5:39am
When both amplitudes ( the amplitude of the selected Trading Cycle and the Amplitude of the Underlying Trend) are more or less equal, let's say 1/3 - 2/3 up to 50/50 you cumulate simultaneously a Trend and "cycles" - always visible with naked eye

When CMA's are // you are in trend mode ( + some zig-zags due to shorter "cycles" oscillations)

When the underlying trend is FLAT / NEUTRAL (+/- 5%) you see the cycles clearly with naked eye
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  • #11,120
  • Sep 12, 2023 5:46am Sep 12, 2023 5:46am
Cyclicity + (up) trend = Hybrid Mode

Observe that the Angle of the Ascending VTL is the same than the Angle of the Trend linking both Focal Points FP5.
Which IMHO reinforces the Uptrend

Technically this means that there is no divergence between both trends
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