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where will the EURUSD be on Jan1?

  • #21
  • Nov 9, 2006 1:34am Nov 9, 2006 1:34am
This was posted in Asia this morning.

Quote
Quote
China trade surplus swells to record US$23.8b in Oct
CHINA has posted a record trade surplus of US$23.83 billion for October, a result that easily beat forecasts and fanned expectations that Beijing will come under new pressure to let the yuan rise faster.


Since the US is China's biggest customer, this means US trade balance will be much worse than expected.

HOWEVER, unless China is prepared to take a serious loss on their $1 Trillion of foreign reserves, I think that breaking Euro 1.3000 will be VERY difficult. For each and every .01 euros increase above 1.25 Euro, the value of China's holdings in USD drops by $8 BILLION.

I think that China will continue to manipulate/intervene in the currency markets to preserve the value of its USD foreign exchange assets.
  • #22
  • Nov 9, 2006 3:44am Nov 9, 2006 3:44am
Soon (in a week) EUR/USD will fall, but till a New Year come, it will rise again (to 1.2900, I think).
I am a Scammer and a spammer
  • #23
  • Nov 9, 2006 8:18am Nov 9, 2006 8:18am
Quoting merlin
lets see if the masses have and predictive/counter-predictive value
Between 1.2600 and 1.3000 is the most appropriate option
  • #24
  • Nov 10, 2006 4:31am Nov 10, 2006 4:31am
Quoting jacko
This was posted in Asia this morning.



Since the US is China's biggest customer, this means US trade balance will be much worse than expected.

HOWEVER, unless China is prepared to take a serious loss on their $1 Trillion of foreign reserves, I think that breaking Euro 1.3000 will be VERY difficult. For each and every .01 euros increase above 1.25 Euro, the value of China's holdings in USD drops by $8 BILLION.

I think that China will continue to manipulate/intervene in the currency markets to preserve the value of its USD foreign exchange assets.


This was posted in Asia this morning.

Quote
Quote
Chinese asset managers to invest US$75b overseas
CHINA's asset managers may invest US$75 billion abroad in the next two years, slowing growth in foreign exchange reserves and easing pressure on the yuan to strengthen, Standard Chartered Bank said.


What a Joke.....$75 Billion is toilet paper to China. And over 2 (long) years.

They have USD $1000 Billion (that's a Trillion Dollars) and are accumulating at approx $20 Billion a month.
  • #25
  • Nov 10, 2006 5:41pm Nov 10, 2006 5:41pm
Quoting jacko
I cannot see ONE reason for strength in the US Dollar:

1. Europe, Britain and Japan have effectively told the world that they will have more interest rate rises than the US ...and the rises will be bigger....

2. The Pound is now much stronger on higher interest rates... the same will happen with the Euro and Yen in the near future

3. The Arabs/ Swedes/Russians etc etc are still continuing to heavily buy other currencies (Euro, Yen, Pound) to spread their Reserve Bank portfolios in preference to US dollars. (If China stops buying US bonds, these portfolios will explode in value as the USD drops)

4. The enormous US deficit will not disappear. China effectively told ole George W to get stuffed and that they would not change their currency peg. (Read: China will continue to flood the market with cheap goods and slowly strangle US businesses). The trade inbalance is heading towards a Trillion dollars (thats US $1000 Billion) in China's favour and has been getting significantly higher each month

5. After the fall of the communist regimes, Europe is now finally getting its act together

6. The Iraqi war is another Vietnam and will continue to suck money.

All of the above would, and should, result in a fall in the US Dollar.

EXCEPT for this one:

The most significant reason that it hasn't fallen dramatically is the ongoing "manipulation" of the USD by China, which does NOT want to see the Euro over 1.3000 and the Yen under 100.00 as it will affect their trade competitiveness.

The US Administration is continually haranguing Beijing to let their currency "float" but the Chinese just smile (as they know very well that they are quickly strangling all US manufacturing industries to death).

The question arises: what can the US administration do about this? Absolutely nothing!!!
Don't get overjoyed with what the Chinese are doing...There is a quote in my country which initiated long ago which says, "Those who don't control their food, don't control their future"...And China, despite everything, despite the huge USD surplus, despite the huge amounts of products being exported to all over the world and flooding the US and despite all the economic growth they are having and all the power, still don't have control over their food..And when we talk about food, we talk about the basic grains, wheat, corn, soybeans and other types of agriculural products like rice, sugar and so on...

Yes, China is hitting the US hard in many fields & they are smiling calmly because they have USD reserves and they are now supposed to be stronger, but the US still have the power of food man, they feed over 1 billion people in China...Look at the agriculture production numbers in the US & you will find them the highest in the world and way beyond any other country...Tell me about the USD reserves held by the Chinese


Thanks,

Nader
  • #26
  • Nov 11, 2006 4:43am Nov 11, 2006 4:43am
Quoting narafa
Don't get overjoyed with what the Chinese are doing...There is a quote in my country which initiated long ago which says, "Those who don't control their food, don't control their future"...And China, despite everything, despite the huge USD surplus, despite the huge amounts of products being exported to all over the world and flooding the US and despite all the economic growth they are having and all the power, still don't have control over their food..And when we talk about food, we talk about the basic grains, wheat, corn, soybeans and other types of agriculural products like rice, sugar and so on...

Yes, China is hitting the US hard in many fields & they are smiling calmly because they have USD reserves and they are now supposed to be stronger, but the US still have the power of food man, they feed over 1 billion people in China...Look at the agriculture production numbers in the US & you will find them the highest in the world and way beyond any other country...Tell me about the USD reserves held by the Chinese


Thanks,

Nader
Hi Nader,

I am not likely to get overjoyed about what China is doing.

I am an American who now resides in Asia. I am amazed and angry at how stupid our Government and businesses has been.
I watch, almost on a daily basis, the growth of the Asian economies and realised some time ago that ole George and his recent predecessors have squandered the enormous wealth of America on foolish follies.

China will overtake the US as a world economic power sooner than everyone expects.
  • #27
  • Nov 12, 2006 5:33am Nov 12, 2006 5:33am
Quoting jacko
Hi Nader,

I am not likely to get overjoyed about what China is doing.

I am an American who now resides in Asia. I am amazed and angry at how stupid our Government and businesses has been.
I watch, almost on a daily basis, the growth of the Asian economies and realised some time ago that ole George and his recent predecessors have squandered the enormous wealth of America on foolish follies.

China will overtake the US as a world economic power sooner than everyone expects.
Have been having a think about this over the last 24 hours and have come to the realisation of something rather mindboggling.

China now has a Trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves. The US is hopelessly in debt to all major countries.

Does this mean that China now effectively controls the fate of the US dollar???

It sure looks like it to me.
  • #28
  • Nov 12, 2006 6:01am Nov 12, 2006 6:01am
China, China, China,...next time it will be Russia,...and it will be Russia, Russia, Russia,....same thing,...many companies, are receiving USD if trading with Russia,...and many europeans do so, if they want fair prices in energies etc. So They are also long with eur/usd or other, to hedge positions if usd falls. So its not only china.
its just money
  • #29
  • Nov 15, 2006 7:15pm Nov 15, 2006 7:15pm
I have read this entire thread, and there is nothing but fundamental crap all through it. China controlling this, russia doing that, surplus crap.

Being a technical trader and very anti fundamental. With my charts are the arts phrase.

Take a look at your weekly and monthly chart. Draw it up nicely, do your trends, and indcators, however you swing or day trade. And take a freaking look
After the last failure at 1.3 it set a new trend, sideways down. Its only a matter of time before the bottom breaks from that. We will see the comfortable levels of 1.18-1.20 sooner rather than later on the euro/usd.
The options dont suit the market at the moment. As the range is 1.2550-1.2900 And its more likely to be there by new years than the rest of the options. however I voted for below 1.26. As its time for bottom end consolidation.

The US GOVERNMENT and FEDERAL RESERVE, are moving forward on controlling the dollar, and making it more valuable. As well as interest in euro dropping, since its just too damn expensive.

Some might argue "Banks and hedge funds only care about profits, not about price" well.. If you have the public pissing off the ECB about too high costs of living, and the over value of the euro. They will make it weaker. Or you will see most of the european union countries fall into the 3rd world category.

Now I am not a fundamental or political or whatever trader. I trade technicals. I dont even use indicators. But I can tell you, the failure for 1.3 is a reason to short at any high level. This trend has over matured, and its time for a fresh down trend.

Just my 2 pips and criticism.

Enjoy.
  • #30
  • Edited 4:18am Nov 16, 2006 3:27am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting Takisd
I have read this entire thread, and there is nothing but fundamental crap all through it. China controlling this, russia doing that, surplus crap.

Being a technical trader and very anti fundamental. With my charts are the arts phrase.

.......

The US GOVERNMENT and FEDERAL RESERVE, are moving forward on controlling the dollar, and making it more valuable. As well as interest in euro dropping, since its just too damn expensive.

.......

Now I am not a fundamental or political or whatever trader. I trade technicals. I dont even use indicators. But I can tell you, the failure for 1.3 is a reason to short at any high level. This trend has over matured, and its time for a fresh down trend.

Just my 2 pips and criticism.

Enjoy.
Hi Takisd

Interesting concepts.

How are "The US GOVERNMENT and FEDERAL RESERVE... moving forward on controlling the dollar, and making it more valuable." ???

The US Govt lost control of the US dollar when it legislated the formation of the (independant) Federal Reserve in 1933.
The Federal Reserve progressively lost control of the US dollar in the last 10 years when the deficit blew out into the stratosphere.

How do you think they are going to pull back a Trillion dollar deficit to China PLUS all the other USD $Billion + deficits to all its other major trading partners?

As far as the effect on me as a trader, I will be trading the (Euro) band of 1.2900 to 1.2600.... because that is where the major trading partners want it to be.
  • #31
  • Nov 16, 2006 9:13pm Nov 16, 2006 9:13pm
Quoting newbietrader101
Jacko,

I have just been reading your all your posts. You seem very intelligent. You also appear to be a trader of large volumes. In one of your posts here you said that you usually trade 100 to 120 lots of Euro deals at a time
Are you the same Jacko from dailyFX ? He was a very successful trader who just disappeared from the scene after ripping out a huge amount of money from Forex trading live online in a thread there.
Can you contact me to help me in my trading?

newbietrader101
Jacko

Are you interested in starting a trade journal here so that I can follow your trades?
It would really help me.

newbietrader101
  • #32
  • Nov 20, 2006 8:39pm Nov 20, 2006 8:39pm
Quoting newbietrader101
Jacko

Are you interested in starting a trade journal here so that I can follow your trades?
It would really help me.

newbietrader101
Jacko,

Are you still around?
I have sent you an email.

Newbietrader101
  • #33
  • Nov 21, 2006 10:57am Nov 21, 2006 10:57am
Quoting newbietrader101
Jacko,

Are you still around?
I have sent you an email.

Newbietrader101
Hello Newbietrader101,

Thank you for your post (and email) but I see no real value for starting a journal here (or anywhere else for that matter).

Firstly, I have been there and done that on another Forum for about six months and, as was seen by all who followed those trades, was very successful in my trading. If you have read that journal, you will know that it was "live time trading" and there was no possibility of any B.S. because I (and others) were all posting as we traded. If we had tried to B.S. then everyone would have jumped on us. Initially, I started with very small numbers of standard lots, but as I started to make very serious money, I stepped up my trading volumes and eventually found my ideal comfort level. I am still trading those large lot numbers.

Secondly, I trade a little differently now than in my original trading pattern. I trade longer term, and trade on average only about twice a week. Less stressful, more profitable.

Thirdly, and most importantly, I don't do anything different from what ALL the good trading books say to do.
I am a trend follower, I use stops, I don't overtrade, I am not afraid to pull the trigger on a trade (either to open or close it...cos I know that I can get back into a trade at the click of a mouse), I don't risk my money stupidly, I don't waste my time looking for any "Holy Grail", I only use the KISS system (price, round numbers, minimal trend lines (2 at most) and the 50% Fib number) to guide my entry and exits, and....I treat it like a business.

Finally, if you look through my posts here and the other forum, you will see the guts of what I do.
If you like I might start a thread and just put all the various issues (such as how to determine a trend, how to trade them, the "jacko" version of a hedge, etc). But again, I don't do anything different from what ALL the good trading books say to do. The only difference, I think, is that I stick to those rules.

I hope that helps you
  • #34
  • Nov 21, 2006 11:31am Nov 21, 2006 11:31am
Quoting TheJungleLion
Between 1.2600 and 1.3000 is the most appropriate option
i am agree with you
  • #35
  • Nov 24, 2006 10:20am Nov 24, 2006 10:20am
i think it is obviousthat the eru will over power usd, doing by chiness intrest in keeping their trade ralationship tight

again, it is like us against the world, for christ sake, eur is a continent, more power to drive usd to nught, anyway, it is subjet to public critism

anyway, the point is pips for money!
  • #36
  • Nov 26, 2006 8:42pm Nov 26, 2006 8:42pm
euro may be will be more than 1.33++
  • #37
  • Dec 4, 2006 9:34pm Dec 4, 2006 9:34pm
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
I'm shocked how 20% have voted for below 1.26.. that could only happen if there is some serious fundamental change over the next couple of weeks, we'll see! i believe we'll be in the 1.34 to 1.30 range. Next year we could head higher again... 1.40 could be on the cards!!
  • #38
  • Dec 18, 2006 4:25am Dec 18, 2006 4:25am
Quoting zaky1971
euro may be will be more than 1.33++

Umm, I dont know about that.

it looks like 1.26 to 1.30 is looking more realistic, after all.
  • #39
  • Last Post: Dec 28, 2006 1:13pm Dec 28, 2006 1:13pm
pretty interesting results we got here. looks like only 24% of voters got this right. more interesting is that the bell curve, although very blunt, was perfectly balanced.
Relax and be happy.
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