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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #581
  • Dec 28, 2022 6:20am Dec 28, 2022 6:20am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Well, this is just one month.... it repeats every month and the winners of the last month have no higher probability of being winners in the next month. So looking at a 5 year periode, none of them makes money.... we are talking about 99% losing money and the 1% can be still explained by pure luck, not skill. In reality, the picture looks even more dramatic, as soon as leverage enfolds its destructive nature: {quote} Wanne stay in the game with such odds? Retail forex trading is a negative sum game for losers.
When i first started trading a few years ago, i looked up all these statistics. The most damning was on my own broker "75% of clients lose". w

What i think is funny is - most of these statistics motivate me and seem actually rather positive.

im not going to write all day to try to change minds, however when i read:

 

  1. 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. 1
  2. Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month.

this alone, to me, seems very encouraging. of course someone trading for a month is likely to lose money. Maybe my mind is wired differently idk. but:

3. Traders sell winners at a 50% higher rate than losers. 60% of sales are winners, while 40% of sales are losers

this should also be very encouraging. stats like this should help make you profitable.

--

i think op is a low key troll tbh. "forex is for losers" we know "75% lose money" so what's happening with the other 25%? all break even?

Also , all of these stats do not divide the gamblers from the traders. I know lots of people who will load up an account and just put on crazy trades in between work meetings. no stops, just check if margin call at the end of the meeting.
it doesn't take much to put yourself in the top 10% of retail imo.

just because you couldn't raise your game/thinking to become profitable, doesn't mean it applies to all.

If anyone is reading this and struggling - don't give up!

  • #582
  • Dec 29, 2022 12:43am Dec 29, 2022 12:43am
Quoting PippityPips
{quote} When i first started trading a few years ago, i looked up all these statistics. The most damning was on my own broker "75% of clients lose". w What i think is funny is - most of these statistics motivate me and seem actually rather positive. im not going to write all day to try to change minds, however when i read: 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. 1 Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month. this alone, to me, seems very encouraging. of course someone trading for a month is likely to lose money....
Hi, ...excuse me, where do you stand now, since you first started trading a few years ago? Lemme guess, still struggling and don't give up?
But you feel encouraged...
Quoting Tylerz
{quote} please tell me any other industry where u can make money without develop your business without change your company . you have follow always the market in every industry , you can not use the same receipt always
To reform the business strategy is not the point here. All false analogies. Never mind. Trade well!
Member
  • #583
  • Dec 29, 2022 3:39am Dec 29, 2022 3:39am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hi, ...excuse me, where do you stand now, since you first started trading a few years ago? Lemme guess, still struggling and don't give up? But you feel encouraged... {quote} To reform the business strategy is not the point here. All false analogies. Never mind. Trade well!
lol another loser?

Lemme guess, couldn’t find an edge, then gave up and decided to project your own failure into others?

or your just a straight up troll.
  • #584
  • Dec 29, 2022 4:09am Dec 29, 2022 4:09am
After 7 years of full-time trading, I have to say that Forex traders make it unnecessarily difficult for themselves.
NQ/ES are soooooooo much easier to beat.
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #585
  • Dec 30, 2022 2:07am Dec 30, 2022 2:07am
Quoting PippityPips
{quote} When i first started trading a few years ago, i looked up all these statistics. The most damning was on my own broker "75% of clients lose". w What i think is funny is - most of these statistics motivate me and seem actually rather positive. im not going to write all day to try to change minds, however when i read: 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. 1 Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month. this alone, to me, seems very encouraging. of course someone trading for a month is likely to lose money....
Quoting PippityPips
{quote} lol another loser? Lemme guess, couldn’t find an edge, then gave up and decided to project your own failure into others? or your just a straight up troll.
Hey, I was nice to you, a little ironic but still nice... and you come back like a jerk, it's OK, I love to start the big guns.

Just as I imagined, you're still there, still jerking and cheering because obviously this addiction of yours feels good.
You're such a low scum and you prove yourself so dumb that you can't even figure for yourself how this casino works.
If 75% lose it doesn't mean that the other 25 win or break even as you imply. Time is the key word here, momo.
Is like saying, oh, I won 125% last month, oh, yeah, I'm so fkn great, ...but that doesn't necessarily make you a consistent winner, because you'll fuck everything up and everything you've got will be gone the next month as you sick addicts come for more to no end.
I got news for you, statistics don't "divide" consistent winners from the occasional winners either.
So you're a winner on one month time but a lame loser on two months time, congratz!
And so they are your 25% "winners".
Same kind of lame fallacy you morons use for the chart patterns or time frames...
Oh, yeah, your mind is wired differently ...differently like stupid.

Long run practice and application shows that overall FX is even worse than a zero sum game, it could even become a negative sum game ...I mean even if you mind the over-the-counter pool principle, you miss the strategic enormous pile of cash power coming in the arena form the high rollers which can possibly make 99% from all retail to lose on some particular period of time.
The fact that you never hear stats like saying 50% win and 50% lose should give you a hint ...that would make it a zero sum fkn game, but it's obviously not!

We also brought here arguments why there are only 50% odds for up or down, not only those statististics of losers ...but trolls like you open their big mouth without reading or studying anything before because they love to hit the slot machine before too much thinking.

And you prove yourself such a sneaky bastard also because you didn't even bother to read that I actually got a kind of "an edege" such as this "all green" robot I started in 2014. Even so, I do understand how a casino works.
Member
  • #587
  • Edited 10:30am Dec 30, 2022 4:18am | Edited 10:30am
hahahah must say I really missed FF

At the end you need two things for a chance for long term trading success

"-reproducible analysis processes (whether technical, fundamental/macro, sentiment, statistical, order flow, preferably everything combined)
-how to turn reproducible analysis processes into trading systems

Systems with fixed rules don't remain successful on the market over the long term, unless you're extremely lucky.
The only systems that remain permanently successful are also permanently adapted and optimized."
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #588
  • Dec 30, 2022 6:16am Dec 30, 2022 6:16am
Something I look for in these pointless pissing matches, is how few folk talk about transaction costs. And who does.
You see my experience over 20 years has been that these ONLY really come into serious focus when you are long term winner.
If your system is losing, they are just PART of your problem ..But if youre system wins consistently they ARE your problem.
And the shorter your typical trade cycle is the bigger the TCs impact your profitability.
For the very few Folk who trade consistently profitable systems, on anything other than multi day/week position trades,
(where swaps and funding costs are the issue) its a continuous talking point.
Anyone?
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
  • #589
  • Edited 9:03am Dec 30, 2022 7:01am | Edited 9:03am
Quoting RossEdwards
Something I look for in these pointless pissing matches, is how few folk talk about transaction costs. And who does. You see my experience over 20 years has been that these ONLY really come into serious focus when you are long term winner. If your system is losing, they are just PART of your problem ..But if youre system wins consistently they ARE your problem. And the shorter your typical trade cycle is the bigger the TCs impact your profitability. For the very few Folk who trade consistently profitable systems, on anything other than multi day/week...
101%

Volatility/trading costs are the major reason I think futures are so much easier to beat long term.

I pay for a roundturn for 1 NQ contract 3.80$ commissions, with 1 contract I'm trading with 20$ per point.
If I make just 2p/8ticks, my trading costs are already <10%.

Since I'm working mostly with limit orders (Entry & TP) I don't pay a spread, I only pay additionally a spread to commissions when I get stopped out (market order)

If I make 10p = 200$ my trading costs are already <2%.

NQ has an average daily range of 250p...
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #590
  • Jan 1, 2023 12:15pm Jan 1, 2023 12:15pm
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Frate Pizdos, ...come on, everybody knows that the PoS protocol of validation leads to more vulnerability in crypto. Because the individual (or group) stake value criteria actually leads to centralization. That makes a wide range of attacks way much worse than PoW and more possible, ...shit like Long-Range, Alternative History, Alternate History, History Revision, Nothing at Stake, Bribery attacks... It's common knowledge that the proof of stake model is less secure compared to the proof of work!! If then proven less...
Concentration of mining power is also centralization just very inefficient. But well yes I can't imagine completely decentralized systems adopted at government levels it just runs counter the idea of a state
  • #591
  • Edited 2:25am Jan 3, 2023 2:07am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting PippityPips
Hidden
Your bullshit has no meaning, no value, ...you just keep repeating the same stupidity without any reasonable argument, being gross vulgar, typically for lame sick trolling... Ignored!
Member
  • #592
  • Edited 2:31am Jan 3, 2023 2:21am | Edited 2:31am
Regardless technicalities, fundamentals, subtleties about how the over-the-counter pool works, pushing risk management, soft martingales, and another ten thousand more "sound strategies"..... regardless all that, you little schmucks don't get simple things about how a big arena works.
The big money are always winning not because they are cheating, or they create confusion, or they throw you out if you're "too lucky", or they rigg your positions, or they fleece you by commissions, or they steal your system, or they are, wow, fkn professionals... no!!
They always win just because they are BIG !
And that's it.
Nothing more.

On the long run, there's no edge for anyone, it's all 50-50.
The odds are even for everyone - big or small - in this business. But the high rollers can stay solvent more than you the little retail bastards do.
That's the strategy.
And nothing more.

Sure, on the short run, anyone can be a champ. I know that because I really was!

And you still miss the point that time is the key word for a winning system.
Success in FX trading is only temporarily.

"Trading may have princes, but nobody stays a king. The people you meet on the way up, you will meet again on the way down." — Vincent from Brooklyn, NYSE floor trader
Member
  • #593
  • Edited 2:35am Jan 3, 2023 2:23am | Edited 2:35am
Unwittingly, the small money are playing against the big money.
For some iditos I need to spell it. Like the pic below.

That means: even if the odds are even for everyone, "the big" win just because they are big. ...because ultimately they can obviously stay solvent more than you do!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tempy.png Size: 17 KB
Member
  • #594
  • Jan 3, 2023 5:25am Jan 3, 2023 5:25am
Forex understanding varies as it only comes from practice and is all about focus with will to learn.
  • #595
  • Aug 8, 2023 10:50am Aug 8, 2023 10:50am
Some more recent trading statistics from:
https://blog.gitnux.com/day-trading-statistics/

Zippia: “Day trader demographics and statistics in the US”, cited February 2023. (Source)
WorldFinance: “The changing face of trading”, cited February 2023. (Source)
MyTradingSkills: “15 Mind Opening Day Trading Statistics”, cited February 2023. (Source)
DayTradeReview: “Day Trading Statistics-10 Interesting Facts”, cited February 2023. (Source)
DayTradeTheWorld: “Risk management strategies working in 2022 in day trading”, cited February 2023. (Source)
TheBalance: “Why Day Traders Should Stick to the 1% Risk Rule”, cited February 2023. (Source)
Tradeciety: “Scientists discovered why most traders lose money – 24 surprising statistics”, cited February 2023. (Source)
Chron: “How Much Does a Day Trader Make?”, cited February 2023. (Source)
University of California: “Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence from Taiwan”, cited February 2023. (Source)
NYSE: “Trading and Data”, cited February 2023. (Source)
FINRA: “Day Trading Risk Disclosure Statement”, cited February 2023. (Source)

Reality doesn't change over time.

  1. Retail forex and daytrading are negative sum games for losers.
  2. Leverage makes it even worse - massively worse.
  3. Expect that only 1 out of 100 over a time span of 5 years, will be able to remain net positive after costs (not rich)
  4. Don't worry, the probability for you to quit within a year because auf losses is already about 80 - 90 %. You don't need to waste 5 years to find that out. Cut the losses and move on with your life.
  5. If you have a productive job you with a decent salary you will outperform 99.9% of all daytraders with less drama, less stress and have a much more fullfilling life as a bonus on top of it.

Cheers, Hudi

  • #596
  • Aug 8, 2023 11:31am Aug 8, 2023 11:31am
On top of that they still rig the markets like in the age of the good old gold price manipulation or the london 4pm fix manipulation as if that never happened. Seems the fines are too small compared to the benefits:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news...10f61b11&ei=43

Their edge is always working against all other market participants, including you. They go against average positioning of market participants in their favor.
  • #597
  • Aug 8, 2023 11:38am Aug 8, 2023 11:38am
Another nice one:

"In the retail FX market, different investors are given different quotes and institutional investors receive far superior quotes than retail. For example the revenue per value executed at Gain Capital is 10x higher for retail clients than for institutional clients."

This is how you guys compete, and you don't even realize it.

Furthermore, let's say you convert your net profits / net losses into you home currency on your account to settle or withdraw them. Check the rates your broker will do on these transactions and compare it to the few pips you pay while trading..... see, that's where they skim it off aggressively with most not retail trader not even realizing it. 0.5 - 1% exchange commission in some cases. Crazy shit!
  • #598
  • Aug 15, 2023 1:32am Aug 15, 2023 1:32am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Oh my ... the walls are closing in, the walls are closing in ... And now we have TDS + MDS, this is an NPC's dream come true BTW, is this what Cenk said ? Cenk ? is that you ?
Georgia, Georgia....
The whole day through
Just an old sweet song
Keeps Georgia on my mind

Tick Tock...... The walls close in as predicted ...... still in denial?

Trump and his enablers did all these crimes, as well as MAGA cult members like you their lying and support, in open daylight. Everything perfectly documented all over the place to prove guilt beyond reasonable doubt. A very clear picture and it will stick.
  • #599
  • Sep 3, 2023 5:37pm Sep 3, 2023 5:37pm
Have a a look at the 300 Mio USD ponzi sceme at MyForexFunds currently unfolding....

Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.

Your money is gone.... get a real productive job.
  • #600
  • Sep 4, 2023 8:43am Sep 4, 2023 8:43am
Wow, Aussi put me on ignore.... what a badge of honor.

Looking at the timing he is either a MFF victim or part of the team.

Missies cookie money might be gone for good.
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