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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,841
  • May 31, 2007 1:32pm May 31, 2007 1:32pm
Quoting alcastro
COPE,

which hours do you trade?
Well if you keep it quiet, I've downloaded my tradestation to my pc at work recently so essentially whenever I'm awake I keep my eye on it. I've been trying to get up for the London open too, but I need to get to bed earlier if I really want to be alert to analyze that session.

My goal is to change my habits to getting to bed around 8:30pm est so that I can more actively participate in the London thru NY open, then monitor positions while at work throughout the day. The challenge is that I really love baseball season and the temptation to watch night mlb games is often too much. I need to get my priorities straight.
  • #4,842
  • May 31, 2007 3:19pm May 31, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting Cope

My goal is to change my habits to getting to bed around 8:30pm est so that I can more actively participate in the London thru NY open, then monitor positions while at work throughout the day. The challenge is that I really love baseball season and the temptation to watch night mlb games is often too much. I need to get my priorities straight.
I think I have a solution to your sleep/baseball conflict ....TIVO the game(s) you want to watch during the evening...then when you get up for London, you can listen to it while you watch the market (provided your trading plan is already done). Maybe it would work? If not, baseball's off limits until the weekend...

Sorry for the distraction from trading issues...but quality of life is really important to our psychological outlook of the market....so, this is sort of a trading issue.....

Hope everyone had a pipductive day!!!

Pips
  • #4,843
  • May 31, 2007 3:46pm May 31, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting pips4uandme
I think I have a solution to your sleep/baseball conflict ....TIVO the game(s) you want to watch during the evening...then when you get up for London, you can listen to it while you watch the market (provided your trading plan is already done). Maybe it would work? If not, baseball's off limits until the weekend...

Sorry for the distraction from trading issues...but quality of life is really important to our psychological outlook of the market....so, this is sort of a trading issue.....

Hope everyone had a pipductive day!!!

Pips
That's a great solution and I've considered it, but it would require me to purchase another tv for my office where I trade. Maybe I can turn that into a reward for accomplishing a trading goal. X amount of pips earned = new lcd for office? Or trading account balance = $x = new lcd.
  • #4,844
  • May 31, 2007 5:18pm May 31, 2007 5:18pm
Hello,

I finally have posting priveledges on this forum. I've never been an user of this forex factory (only strategybuilderfx and a bit on forex-tsd), but I came here following a reference to another thread, and discovered this one. It caught my eye, and I've been reading and following it for the past 2 weeks.

I'm reading it all the way through (now on page 75...) which is not an easy job, but it seems worth the effort. But I already read all the pdf's and listened to all the mp3's on the lessons that were posted on page 289 onwards. So I think I have a good idea about the system.

I've been trying to do some deals based on this system, but some more experience with it is needed for me to feel confident.

But this system looks awesome, and reachs me right when I feel I have to get back to the "basics" (meaning simplicity) - trendlines, MA's, just one indicator, sometimes a fibo.

In fact after more than one year trying many systems, indicators, oscillators, ea's, etc, I felt I was not reaching what many feel is more important: the price action - and this system maked it so much easier to understand. Why was I relying so much on indicators, and not using trendlines as they should, when that's one of the first things you read about...

Also H4 is one of the TF's I started with, and then moved all around, following several ideas. But from what I hear the experienced traders make most of the pips on H1, H4 or even higher TF's.

So I feel this is just what I needed to become a better fx trader.

==> Now to Phillip:
- All the work and testing you had to come up with this! I honestly think we can only admire that.
- And then you share it with other traders! We can only be very, very thankful.
- And on top of that, you put up high quality material for us to learn! Simple clear - impressive! We can only admire and thank you.

OK, this is long enough. I won't be this boring on future posts!

From now on, I'll post some questions as well as some analysis based on this, and will try to follow and discuss potencial trades, as I've seen here.

May we all earn lots of pips with this.

Thanks

MD
  • #4,845
  • May 31, 2007 6:14pm May 31, 2007 6:14pm
Hey Pips!

You got it, I stole some from the EURO$ last night and this morning AFTER the news was released...both times. The USDJPY is coiling up like a snake waiting to strike. Oh, and by the way 'Mom' , I have to go down to South Florida to take care of some family business stuff. Not to bust anyone's kneecaps or anything....just stuff. So, my posting may be minimal next week. I'll have my laptop though with the wireless broadband keeping me going, you can count on that!

Don't let the news trade you!

"Let the market come to YOU" as Phillip has stated.
  • #4,846
  • May 31, 2007 7:05pm May 31, 2007 7:05pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey Pips!

You got it, I stole some from the EURO$ last night and this morning AFTER the news was released...both times. The USDJPY is coiling up like a snake waiting to strike. Oh, and by the way 'Mom' , I have to go down to South Florida to take care of some family business stuff. Not to bust anyone's kneecaps or anything....just stuff. So, my posting may be minimal next week. I'll have my laptop though with the wireless broadband keeping me going, you can count on that!

Don't let the news trade you!

"Let the market come to YOU" as Phillip has stated.
Grats on the steal Palmer & S. Fla. is the place to be. Naples, FL here.
  • #4,847
  • May 31, 2007 7:54pm May 31, 2007 7:54pm
hold on, dear, above this redline and longs will be with you.
Attached Image
  • #4,848
  • May 31, 2007 8:04pm May 31, 2007 8:04pm
Hehe!

Tam and I are doing the same action...posting our thoughts on USDCAD contra trades....

I'm going to start by showing my daily chart....then post a 4 hour....

All the comments I make are my own opinion, and are not designed to think for you. Please develop your own trading plan based on your own analysis and don't let me sway you....with that said...here I go...

Based on the daily chart, I am not thinking about countertrend trading this pair...I don't see a definable pattern other than bump and run, and the pair is still running down. Phillip's MACD is also not showing divergence....But, if I were inclined to go long, I would like to see a close above the aggressive TL and 8 EMA w/a MACD reading of more than -.0052 (ie -.0050 or smaller), it would be good to see prices flatening out or still moving down slightly while the MACD turned below this level indicated (then we'd have some good old fashioned bullish divergence). The targets would be the 21 EMA, and a positioning for a break above the "bump and run resistance line) at 1.0923...next target would be 1.0965 then 1.1087...then if very patient and all indicators point north, the 200 andd 89 confluence would be targets. Again, I don't like the way the daily looks for a contertrade...the downmove still looks like it has some magma in the earth to explore. If you do trade off a Pin...make sure you have confirmation of which way prices are going...OK...enough said...

My true preference would be to wait for a short at the 21/ res. line failure w/TC down on 4 hour (or 1 hour)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 053107 daily.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #4,849
  • May 31, 2007 8:08pm May 31, 2007 8:08pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hehe!

Tam and I are doing the same action...posting our thoughts on USDCAD contra trades....

I'm going to start by showing my daily chart....then post a 4 hour....

All the comments I make are my own opinion, and are not designed to think for you. Please develop your own trading plan based on your own analysis and don't let me sway you....with that said...here I go...
Donna, I believe master Phil was going to create a subfolder for our trade journal, wasn't he? I just do not know the poll results. I would certainly put my charts elsewhere not to confuse with the general discussion. Just my opinion.
  • #4,850
  • Edited 8:37pm May 31, 2007 8:15pm | Edited 8:37pm
Now for the 4 hour chart (which gives me disoriented feeling to look at b/c of steepness of price action w/few flat spots...looks like my yard (I live on the side of a hill: )...

First, look how beautiful the motion of this pair has been....to the Support line....up to the 8...then usually to the 21....then back to support....amazingly beautiful and so rhythmic! It's also interesting to note that most of the moves away from the MA's usually occur at the 01:00 PST candle...aka 04:00 ET...aka 08:00GMT...Also notice that price is getting squeezed within a falling wedge...which does lead to the assumption that price will eventually break out. Let's assume you want to take the countertrade, how could you play it?

1) You could buy the pair a few pips above the support line and use a very tight stop of 25 pips. The pair has been travelling back up to the 8 w/in 24 -48 hours and you could take partial profits and move stop on lots to BE to position yourself for a move to the 21 and possible breakout of resistance line. The risk to this plan is the pair may break to the downside and travel many hundreds of pips further (but you only risked 25 for the chance to make 100 or more...not bad r:r...but it is against the trend (and I don't really see too much flatening)

2) You could wait for a break and close above the 21 and the res. line w/MACD indicating long is good direction (watch carefully for a TC around 1 AM candle -- watch the 1 hour too for early signs of entry...or wait for a retest of the Res line or MA.

There are a lot of possible pips to capture on a countertrend trade...just do your homework first. Confirm price is moving in your direction and don't enter to soon, unless you are entering at support and shooting for res (I actually kind of like that plan). Also, keep an eye on the important res. levels and look for price to fail w/TC down...those should give you high probability trend direction trades...but what do I know?

Happy trading...and be careful! this pair has pips to give, just take them wisely!

Pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 053107 4hr.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #4,851
  • May 31, 2007 8:21pm May 31, 2007 8:21pm
Cope: I'll be rollin' on the East side in West Palm....

Subfolder for 'other' charts would be great...I just wouldn't want it to diverge from Phill's method. But, I do use his 'logic' for entries/exits that differ from the rules. I have yet to post any of 'those' charts to keep things in this thread 'clean'. I just don't want to stir the pot....
  • #4,852
  • May 31, 2007 8:41pm May 31, 2007 8:41pm
Quoting tamkras
Donna, I believe master Phil was going to create a subfolder for our trade journal, wasn't he? I just do not know the poll results. I would certainly put my charts elsewhere not to confuse with the general discussion. Just my opinion.
Hi Tam!

I don't know the answer...but it seems most people like all the discussion kept in one place...

guess I should also indicate that our cad discussions were requested by members of the forum in PM's...

Hope all your trades are profitable

Donna
  • #4,853
  • May 31, 2007 8:45pm May 31, 2007 8:45pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey Pips!

You got it, I stole some from the EURO$ last night and this morning AFTER the news was released...both times. The USDJPY is coiling up like a snake waiting to strike. Oh, and by the way 'Mom' , I have to go down to South Florida to take care of some family business stuff. Not to bust anyone's kneecaps or anything....just stuff. So, my posting may be minimal next week. I'll have my laptop though with the wireless broadband keeping me going, you can count on that!

Don't let the news trade you!

"Let the market come to YOU" as Phillip has stated.
MOM!!....

& COPE.....great idea on the reward = LCD...
  • #4,854
  • May 31, 2007 8:46pm May 31, 2007 8:46pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Tam!

I don't know the answer...but it seems most people like all the discussion kept in one place...

guess I should also indicate that our cad discussions were requested by members of the forum in PM's...

Hope all your trades are profitable

Donna
o.k., I will comply. It will work out for me, too. I became somewhat superstitious with my public trades, he-he.
  • #4,855
  • May 31, 2007 9:04pm May 31, 2007 9:04pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I am using this 4 Hour strategy only for the last month as I have papertraded for 2 years trying everything and or system I could find. (I am trading equities for almost 10 years)I have decided that I will only go live(after some losses-not to serious) after I have studied the field of forex and are satisfied that I have a system that works. I do believe that we are trying to make it to impressive and difficult. This system is simple and easy to understand. I have backtested and forward tested it over more than 200 trades and it gives 300+ pips per month. I never had more than two consecutive losses. I never use a stoploss bigger than 50. There are enough chances to ignore the ones bigger than 50.

I am using this strategy only on the EurUsd and the GbpUsd. Have not tested it on other.
I hope that you will find some use for it and that it put you on the road to financial independence.

EDIT: For a summary of the 4 hour system go to page 289 Post 4335.
thanks for sharing this
  • #4,856
  • May 31, 2007 9:16pm May 31, 2007 9:16pm
Quoting MD27
Hello,

I finally have posting priveledges on this forum. I've never been an user of this forex factory (only strategybuilderfx and a bit on forex-tsd), but I came here following a reference to another thread, and discovered this one. It caught my eye, and I've been reading and following it for the past 2 weeks.

I'm reading it all the way through (now on page 75...) which is not an easy job, but it seems worth the effort. But I already read all the pdf's and listened to all the mp3's on the lessons that were posted on page 289 onwards. So I think I have a good idea about the system.

I've been trying to do some deals based on this system, but some more experience with it is needed for me to feel confident.

But this system looks awesome, and reachs me right when I feel I have to get back to the "basics" (meaning simplicity) - trendlines, MA's, just one indicator, sometimes a fibo.

In fact after more than one year trying many systems, indicators, oscillators, ea's, etc, I felt I was not reaching what many feel is more important: the price action - and this system maked it so much easier to understand. Why was I relying so much on indicators, and not using trendlines as they should, when that's one of the first things you read about...

Also H4 is one of the TF's I started with, and then moved all around, following several ideas. But from what I hear the experienced traders make most of the pips on H1, H4 or even higher TF's.

So I feel this is just what I needed to become a better fx trader.

==> Now to Phillip:
- All the work and testing you had to come up with this! I honestly think we can only admire that.
- And then you share it with other traders! We can only be very, very thankful.
- And on top of that, you put up high quality material for us to learn! Simple clear - impressive! We can only admire and thank you.

OK, this is long enough. I won't be this boring on future posts!

From now on, I'll post some questions as well as some analysis based on this, and will try to follow and discuss potencial trades, as I've seen here.

May we all earn lots of pips with this.

Thanks

MD
You are welcome to our forum, enjoy the process of becoming a good trader!
  • #4,857
  • Edited 11:33am Jun 1, 2007 8:54am | Edited 11:33am
My thoughts about the loonie marathon posted on May 19. Many are asking this question - when is this going to end? Maybe this chart is an answer? A to B = B to C. Now, the true fight begins. In a last desperate attempt many longs will begin to reverse their positions only likely to aggrevate their loss. Money flows to Canada, the little farm, to my piggy.

11:15 EST - Hmm, where now? Another 614 pip leg? Canada is taking over?

I am scared, folks. I want to wake up in a year or so when loonie is back to 88 cents and we are all happy neighbours.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tamkras_loonie19may.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #4,858
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:25pm Jun 1, 2007 12:25pm
Well, being Canadian and listening to the fundamentals (although I don't trade the fundamentals), the end of this will not be seen until at least mid-September. Our dollar is quickly moving up to the break even point of the US dollar and it doesn't look pretty. I wouldn't Long the USD/CAD pair just yet folks, regardless of what the technicals say.

Nancy
  • #4,859
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:30pm Jun 1, 2007 2:30pm
Phillip, I will not be tired to thank you again and again.
Before coming to this thread I've lost half of my mini account at random trading. I've been trading your system for 3 weeks live, and took back my money from "them" . It's not much money but it's a great victory, as I don't trade randomly any more, I stick only to your strategy, I don't jump in a trade if I see a price move. I've learned to stick to the rules and be disciplined and patient thanks to this wonderful thread. I hope I will keep it going! I took only few deals these weeks. That was really hard!

I am following the thread closely and there has been a good discussion after DGC has posted a chart. Sorry, for late input. Doing my backtesting I also found it difficult to catch such moves, when the trend breaks suddenly, as I trade counter trend trades very carefully. But I think experience will solve this problem. I study the market rhythm and it's really "a magic", as Pips called it.
So, here are my question: Would you take the trade if there was a good sitter according to the market rhythm, but no MACD signal? Do you still use 1hour conformation only for TC signal or the other signals too?
  • #4,860
  • Jun 1, 2007 3:38pm Jun 1, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting ira
Phillip, I will not be tired to thank you again and again.
Before coming to this thread I've lost half of my mini account at random trading. I've been trading your system for 3 weeks live, and took back my money from "them" . It's not much money but it's a great victory, as I don't trade randomly any more, I stick only to your strategy, I don't jump in a trade if I see a price move. I've learned to stick to the rules and be disciplined and patient thanks to this wonderful thread. I hope I will keep it going! I took only few deals these weeks. That was really hard!

I am following the thread closely and there has been a good discussion after DGC has posted a chart. Sorry, for late input. Doing my backtesting I also found it difficult to catch such moves, when the trend breaks suddenly, as I trade counter trend trades very carefully. But I think experience will solve this problem. I study the market rhythm and it's really "a magic", as Pips called it.
So, here are my question: Would you take the trade if there was a good sitter according to the market rhythm, but no MACD signal? Do you still use 1hour conformation only for TC signal or the other signals too?

You can use the 1H on other signals. When you get familiar with the rhythm of a certain pair you will recognize that a very high probability setup is occuring even before the 4H MACD gives the signal and the 1H will confirm it. But use this option only if you are sure you know the market motion. The advantage is that your stoploss gets smaller as you enter earlier.

This week was difficult. I got 52 pips on Tuesday and 30 pips today on EurUsd after NFP.
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