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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #4,821
  • May 30, 2007 5:48pm May 30, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting smnitro1
Wow! Pretty interesting stuff. It's funny, as I was watching the video, I had 2 trades on that went for +50 pips! So I guess the laws of attraction brought me to this forum and my sole focus lately has been positive forex trading. Pretty cool..
Thanks tamkras
Just some evening and general thoughts.. (when I say you, I address anyone in general below).

I know a very positive trader on FF whose trades and mind game I follow with very much interest. I can't help respecting his ardent belief in his own objectives. He went through terrible losses recently while being patronized by "great traders" whose trades we have not even seen. He takes losses with dignity and moves ahead.

You will never know why exactly you failed - it is a myth. The good opportunity might turn against you any time. Your stop-loss can be hit by 1 pip, you can move stop by 100 pips and can still be hit. Your task is to turn statistical quantity of trades into account quality. Again, you can turn back to your bad trade and say "eh-he-he, I knew this was going to happen". Then why do we enter if such troubling thoughts haunt us? Change your attitude, make yourself comfortable with the thought that YOU ARE GOING TO WIN, shoot when no one expects you to win, design your perfect set-up and make it your own secret. Share your thoughts with your journal and no one else (Pips is perfect in doing this and can teach us how to keep our thoughts clear). Do not judge yourself, this is not a court. Always keep an open mind and perfect your system as it should suit your personality and the whole life environment of yours. Alright, you stumbled upon a loss which is shocking, confusing, disheartening, cruel. This is exactly what the market wants you to feel - to belittle and ridicule you - "you are out!" Maybe it is time to be out. We know the market is always right. Do not fight windmills. Take your time, distance yourself from the market and you will see from where the wind is blowing. It's like making a big picture for yourself.

I tend to agree with Pips that demo losses do not teach us properly but demo is the perfect way to start. So, you suffered a loss, blown your first account, second account, enough is enough. You are told to take vacation, that's it. No second guess. What happens next in your psychology is the most important. You will probably start treating each trade as an investment. I mean it, folks. You will need to take it seriously. You are investing into your future. You will realize that you must work hard on each setup and tell yourself multiple times to wait before pulling the trigger. When you finish 6 months successfully you may scale up your positions and open multiple lots. These are my positive thoughts, or gibberish for whoever prefers.

Good luck.
  • #4,822
  • May 30, 2007 6:19pm May 30, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting Cope
I'm looking at the Nzd/Usd pair right now, price has tested the 89 for the last 3 bars and a nice rt is forming. I'm looking at shorting the pair. Any thoughts? Is this the right set up or am I misinterpreting some of Phillips rules?
just my 2 cents: the setup looks great. You might probably hear many pro's and the same number of con's that this is not favoured MACD pair and that it is a commodity-tied currency, etc, etc. Pro's are the pair is in downtrend. There are also 2 symmetrical highs rejected at 0.7308 - I put the red bar there. And the formation reminds me of a scallop which is bearish. However, I would prefer to see a steeper curve such as in usd/cdn. If I short this pair I would put a tight stop as it might develop into the next swing as high as 0.7368. I am not sure if I helped much. But these are my messy thoughts.

and yes, yes - 89SMA is by the rules.
Attached Image
  • #4,823
  • May 30, 2007 6:34pm May 30, 2007 6:34pm
Quoting tamkras
just my 2 cents: the setup looks great. You might probably hear many pro's and the same number of con's that this is not favoured MACD pair and that it is a commodity-tied currency, etc, etc. Pro's are the pair is in downtrend. There are also 2 symmetrical highs rejected at 0.7308 - I put the red bar there. And the formation reminds me of a scallop which is bearish. However, I would prefer to see a steeper curve such as in usd/cdn. If I short this pair I would put a tight stop as it might develop into the next swing as high as 0.7368. I am not sure if I helped much. But these are my messy thoughts.

and yes, yes - 89SMA is by the rules.
Thanks for your feedback Tamkras. As I'm learning, pros AND cons are exactly what I'm looking for. That's why I love FF and specifically this thread. BTW, I took the trade prior to your feeback, stop is fairly tight above the previous pin with TP just above the 365. I'll post the results after it hits one way or the other.
  • #4,824
  • May 30, 2007 6:35pm May 30, 2007 6:35pm
Quoting tamkras
Just some evening and general thoughts.. (when I say you, I address anyone in general below).

I know a very positive trader on FF whose trades and mind game I follow with very much interest. I can't help respecting his ardent belief in his own objectives. He went through terrible losses recently while being patronized by "great traders" whose trades we have not even seen. He takes losses with dignity and moves ahead.

You will never know why exactly you failed - it is a myth. The good opportunity might turn against you any time. Your stop-loss can be hit by 1 pip, you can move stop by 100 pips and can still be hit. Your task is to turn statistical quantity of trades into account quality. Again, you can turn back to your bad trade and say "eh-he-he, I knew this was going to happen". Then why do we enter if such troubling thoughts haunt us? Change your attitude, make yourself comfortable with the thought that YOU ARE GOING TO WIN, shoot when no one expects you to win, design your perfect set-up and make it your own secret. Share your thoughts with your journal and no one else (Pips is perfect in doing this and can teach us how to keep our thoughts clear). Do not judge yourself, this is not a court. Always keep an open mind and perfect your system as it should suit your personality and the whole life environment of yours. Alright, you stumbled upon a loss which is shocking, confusing, disheartening, cruel. This is exactly what the market wants you to feel - to belittle and ridicule you - "you are out!" Maybe it is time to be out. We know the market is always right. Do not fight windmills. Take your time, distance yourself from the market and you will see from where the wind is blowing. It's like making a big picture for yourself.

I tend to agree with Pips that demo losses do not teach us properly but demo is the perfect way to start. So, you suffered a loss, blown your first account, second account, enough is enough. You are told to take vacation, that's it. No second guess. What happens next in your psychology is the most important. You will probably start treating each trade as an investment. I mean it, folks. You will need to take it seriously. You are investing into your future. You will realize that you must work hard on each setup and tell yourself multiple times to wait before pulling the trigger. When you finish 6 months successfully you may scale up your positions and open multiple lots. These are my positive thoughts, or gibberish for whoever prefers.

Good luck.
Nicely said!....& that stupid long....yipee...It's up 3 pips all day ....Think today was a very positive lesson for me....why the heck did I ever enter, eh? (stop and reverse seemed like a good idea....major downtrend line broken...hey, its up 4 now!!!

Tam is such a good trader who does much work on the research end of all her trades. Someday I'll be as good....maybe?

hmmm...report must have been ok....still up..now its 5! LOL!!

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #4,825
  • Edited 7:06pm May 30, 2007 6:48pm | Edited 7:06pm
Quoting Cope
Thanks for your feedback Tamkras. As I'm learning, pros AND cons are exactly what I'm looking for. That's why I love FF and specifically this thread. BTW, I took the trade prior to your feeback, stop is fairly tight above the previous pin with TP just above the 365. I'll post the results after it hits one way or the other.
Even if the price goes against you, Cope, my advice is to follow your plan as designed, let the price sort it out. Every chance is unique but there are still one thousand chances ahead. Good luck and well done regardless of the outcome.

I just remembered with a smile when back in March this year I was probably encouraging Alcastro in the same way although it was a different pair. This is what I posted at that time as a good setup while helping my daughter with the homework. I hope Alcastro held his short until yesterday, he-he .
  • #4,826
  • May 30, 2007 7:28pm May 30, 2007 7:28pm
For those who consider going long usd/cad:

1). Do you feel the price is running like mad from the new low?
2). Have you seen retest of the low, at least 1.0700?
3). Why is that the price is still within yesterday's hi-low range?
4). Has the new support been established, where is it?
5). Has any day ended green?

If you have answers and you are not a scalp trader then your plan is ready. Yours, Tamkras.
  • #4,827
  • May 30, 2007 8:23pm May 30, 2007 8:23pm
Anyone looking at the aussie bounce off 89 to the 21. Could develop let watch and see.
  • #4,828
  • May 30, 2007 9:21pm May 30, 2007 9:21pm
Quoting tamkras
For those who consider going long usd/cad:

1). Do you feel the price is running like mad from the new low?
2). Have you seen retest of the low, at least 1.0700?
3). Why is that the price is still within yesterday's hi-low range?
4). Has the new support been established, where is it?
5). Has any day ended green?

If you have answers and you are not a scalp trader then your plan is ready. Yours, Tamkras.
Good points tamkras. The one thing which the market is telling me that leads me to believe price will go up at least some is yesterday's daily pinbar. I don't have any real money in this long trade, but my gut says we will see at least some up action. (Hands steady on the "Edit" button, ready to retract that statement if price plummets down hehehe)...
  • #4,829
  • May 30, 2007 10:18pm May 30, 2007 10:18pm
Quoting tamkras
.

I just remembered with a smile when back in March this year I was probably encouraging Alcastro in the same way although it was a different pair. This is what I posted at that time as a good setup while helping my daughter with the homework. I hope Alcastro held his short until yesterday, he-he .
Wow! Wouldn't that have been something!

I'm in the process of reading Rem. of a Stock Operator, and your post reinforces the concept of thinking of general movements, not individual fluctuations....and

The BIG money is made by sitting, not thinking (Yes, you have to think first then let it run)...and

The way to make big money is to be right at exactly the right time

But who would have thought the loonie was going to dig a hole to the center of the earth? Go figure.

Also, to you brave souls going long now...carry a rope to help pull that currency pair up. Trust your plan....& I wish you the best of luck (keep an eye out for the TC from those perfect RB's). I would like to see this pair start moving up w/a few efforts to the 89 and partial, half failed drops downward first (would really like to see it lose its perfect rhythm. Bullish divergence would be good after this long drop! Not a single one of us has an excuse to whine about missing any of this move as it was textbook rhythm (I didn't trade it...but I'm not whining (and neither are you guys)...I wrote it down each day...on paper...fakey rb and all ...and thought...how many miles towards the center of the earth will this pair go before it explodes?). & I know me...I won't trade it, most likely, on the way up...well, maybe...

Good Times in Canada, eh? All that oil...and silver...and jade....and timber....but we can't afford to buy it anymore...the exchange rate is too bad...I want my .30 cent premium dang it, so I can buy all the Coffee Crisp I can eat!!! ...yeah...I think its time to get some sleep...night all

Pips
  • #4,830
  • May 30, 2007 10:26pm May 30, 2007 10:26pm
Quoting fxpertno1
Anyone looking at the aussie bounce off 89 to the 21. Could develop let watch and see.
I'd like it to hit the 200 first, please . It's just broken through resistance, so let's see what happens here....I' don't want to see a round top...but it might be ok if it goes to the 8 (and you can hop on board if long signal still given).. then travels back up to the 200 and then on to .8320. Sound good? Can you tell I'm long???

Happy trading!
  • #4,831
  • May 31, 2007 1:04am May 31, 2007 1:04am
Quoting Cope
Thanks for your feedback Tamkras. As I'm learning, pros AND cons are exactly what I'm looking for. That's why I love FF and specifically this thread. BTW, I took the trade prior to your feeback, stop is fairly tight above the previous pin with TP just above the 365. I'll post the results after it hits one way or the other.
While I slept, I got stopped out at 0.7313. Next trade will be the start of a long profitable run.
  • #4,832
  • May 31, 2007 3:45am May 31, 2007 3:45am
Quoting Cope
While I slept, I got stopped out at 0.7313. Next trade will be the start of a long profitable run.
Yes, I can see that. You never know until you try.
  • #4,833
  • Edited 4:07am May 31, 2007 3:48am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting tamkras
For those who consider going long usd/cad:

1). Do you feel the price is running like mad from the new low?
2). Have you seen retest of the low, at least 1.0700?
3). Why is that the price is still within yesterday's hi-low range?
4). Has the new support been established, where is it?
5). Has any day ended green?

If you have answers and you are not a scalp trader then your plan is ready. Yours, Tamkras.
Hope common sense prevailed and you did not press "buy" button.

I read this yesterday and thought out loud "oh-oh, Mr. and Mrs. Elliots, there is some problem" -
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...534038450.html
  • #4,834
  • May 31, 2007 5:09am May 31, 2007 5:09am
Get ready for 'something'...

Upper trend-line kinda off there...
Attached Image
  • #4,835
  • May 31, 2007 6:29am May 31, 2007 6:29am
Quoting pips4uandme
I'd like it to hit the 200 first, please . It's just broken through resistance, so let's see what happens here....I' don't want to see a round top...but it might be ok if it goes to the 8 (and you can hop on board if long signal still given).. then travels back up to the 200 and then on to .8320. Sound good? Can you tell I'm long???

Happy trading!
This worked out pretty nicely. Just closed 2 lots for +61 pips each (yesterday I took a short that turned on me while I slept, and took -27 pips loss on 3 lots...Entered short on turn from res. line w/TC down on MACD. My error was I got greedy and didn't protect profit on short...I was targeting the 365 and a very strong support line held price action and turned the pair back up...I let a > +20 win turn to a loss). But, I was lucky on the timing. My 5AM PST candle (which is the one that stopped me) showed a clear break in the res. line, the bounce from the daily Inside Top Low (a few pips below price bounce) from the historic highs decades ago (which have been holding as support for the retraction. Will be interesting to see how far the pair falls if this support is broken), and a MACD zero line cross (I know some of you don't like the cross (think DCG called it chasing), but I guess this is where I have personalized the system and I have found it can be a great signal indicating directional change in momentum, especially if you miss the round bottom turn (we all create our own rules that fit our testing and trading style) . I'm not talking about a very weak .0001 cross going back and forth directionlessly (even though this cross was marginal at .0003 from a mutated previous signal (not sure what to call it) and the 1 hour supported entry as well. My stop was 17 pips, and the 89 was 30 pips (The odds seemed good to me w/almost 1:2 ratio, res. break and close, and support bounce along with upward cross on MACD & hourly price closed above the 200 w/MACD signal for long good). My real target was the 4 hour 200 MA giving me an exceptional r:r (and the aggressive was the Down TL from daily at .8320). This is the first time I "stopped and reversed" using Phillip's system, but it was based on logical reasons coupled with timing that seemed to prove that my short was wrong and the market would keep moving up. As a result, I finished up +41 pips (after taking the original loss). Thought I would provide more details on the trade, since I had referenced it on the forum.

Hope everyone is having profitable trades.

Pips
  • #4,836
  • May 31, 2007 6:32am May 31, 2007 6:32am
Quoting Palmer
Get ready for 'something'...

Upper trend-line kinda off there...
Yikes! Look at that squished price movement whipping back and forth....bet the pair is preparing for NFP....

& you are preparing your plans ahead of time.....Nice!

Bet you caught more of the Eur pips last night too....pretty soon, you can hire someone to clean your room!

Happy trading,

Pips
  • #4,837
  • May 31, 2007 6:34am May 31, 2007 6:34am
From pips4:

"but I guess this is where I have personalized the system and I have found it can be a great signal indicating directional change in momentum"

Regardless of the time frame. I'm right there with you. I've looked a little deeper inside Phill's MACD Magic and found some gems as well, not to be discussed here. This is Phillip's thread. Either way...THIS IS IT.
  • #4,838
  • May 31, 2007 8:21am May 31, 2007 8:21am
Quoting Cope
While I slept, I got stopped out at 0.7313. Next trade will be the start of a long profitable run.
Hope you went long for the target of 0.7368 which I drew for you. Check and mate.
  • #4,839
  • May 31, 2007 10:01am May 31, 2007 10:01am
Quoting tamkras
Hope you went long for the target of 0.7368 which I drew for you. Check and mate.
When I got up at 4am est to check positions and candles, I was going on 3 hours of sleep so I saw that I had been stopped out and went back to bed since I had to be at work at 8:30. I was tired and disappointed and was not looking for any further entries. I make it a point not to enter new trades when I'm not fresh, especially coming off a loss as I can make irrational decisions. Although I missed a trade, I followed my plan so I'm not disappointed.
  • #4,840
  • May 31, 2007 10:12am May 31, 2007 10:12am
COPE,

which hours do you trade?
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