Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

short follow up

follow up

closed short position

DAX M1:

I do not use Hickson's FLD strategies because it is structurally flawed.

This for 2 main reasons :

a) Hickson , as most "cycles analysts" focus on "cycles" b
) his examples use only "cycles" which have the SAME amplitude , which is NOT the case in real trading life.

Hickson made a great job and a great demonstration if you want to understand THEORETICALLY HOW and WHY FLD's work.

but structurally all "cycle analysts" have an erroneous reasoning !

Because none of them has correctly read what Hurst wrote.

If you understand fully what you read , if you focus on "*cycles* (oscillations), you focus on 23 % of all price motion in a way which is "*semi-predictable*" - an oscillatory motion which is "*extremely complex"*

The consequence of this statement is this one :The consequence of this statement is this one :

Hence why focusing exclusively your attention and energy on 1/4 of Price motion ?

Let's say that Price motion oscillates for the most part within the Envelope 128 (ocre) whose amplitude is 2.5

this chart shows that the measured move is ( 4428- 4405) = 23 Points.

As Price motion oscillates within the Envelope 128 whose cyclical Amplitude is 2.5 Points.

Then we can infer that non oscillatory influence on Price motion is 23 -2.5 = 20.5 points = 20.5/23 = 89% of the Measured Move

FLD 64 as a Trend Following tool

BTCUSD 1 mn

Opened Short Position

No need to be a genius to observe a Descendinng Contracting Triangle

Short Follow Up