USD/CAD

Indeed. Been calling 1.40000 for a while.

US equities fly today, oil holding steady, and yet USD/CAD didn't lose much ground. Inverse correlation broken signals USD/CAD should fly soon.

First stop 1.3480

ATM, we are at 133.70

Our target at 1.3480 gets hit. The charts show the two correlation breaks giving us the clue that smart money will be moving the price up next. (insert pat on the back here)

Reports of the death of the USD have been wildly exaggerated.

and the CDN is doomed to purgatory over time here. Just have to wait it out.

The USD/CAD hasn’t changed much on Friday, but the 200-Day Moving Average is still under bullish pressure.
After forming a double bottom in July, the USD/CAD broke into the bullish flag again.

Its a nice set up for sure. Seems like a struggle for this one but my thesis remains the CAD is not going to come out of what is come without taking a good hit. Just have to wait it out.

Nice whipsaw out of the channel and a break to the upside channel seems good now. And then continuation but expect the volatility will continue. Not sure if its intervention or what but it really seems to be fighting the weakness based on the fundamental crappy economic situation based on housing etc in Canada. Debt to the eyeballs and no chance of rates dropping anytime soon.

Ok Trade is on for USDCAD I was away so couldnt post earlier

Anyway here is the Trade



Target is 1.35990

The pair has reached a temporary top and will move back to 1.35.

USDCAD Trade And Target





Target Is 1.35952

Add Here little To Target 1.35566

Later we will see if can go Long Again



Currently Target is 1.35566

Will Update next if Sl is needed or Tp is hit

Target is Hit





Thats a Nice Gain

As I said on Friday in my "Fractal Geometry" thread we may see some short term bullish SP500 price movement this week based on the chart below.

SP500 H1 CHART - on Friday price broke up through and closed above two congruent fractal lines around 4370

Today the SP500 spiked up to 4407 and now sits at 4397.

Now, I'm short USDCAD at 1.3543 and am looking for a retest of 1.34. Risking 50 pips for 150.

This is not trade advice but rather an explanation of my thought process. I am generally an intraday quasi-scalper but occasionally I will swing trade if I find the right technical/fundamental setup.

Fundamental angle: Early last week the US retail sales print was much greater than expected. That coupled with the FED minutes suggesting that future rate hikes were a possibility led to a sell-off in equities.

Given the inverse relationship between the SP500 and USDCAD, it was no surprise to see USDCAD's strength. Also, a downward correction in oil added fuel to that USDCAD fire.

However, lost in the shuffle was the Canadian CPI print which came in at 0.6 m/m crushing the 0.3 estimate. Still, it will be hard for the Loonie to gain strength as long as US equities are falling. But, that may change soon, and if/when it does we can expect USDCAD to drop.

Technical angle: First order of business is WTIOIL. We are going to assume that it can hold $80 for now.

Secondly, and more importantly, is a look at the daily charts for both the SP500 AND USDCAD.

The USDCAD Daily chart shows back-to-back Dojis. Looks like possible price exhaustion to me.



In addition, although still needing a confirmation candle, the SP500 Daily chart has a very bullish candle structure.

To summarize: Both the FED and the BOC will likely be considering more rate hikes going forward so the one thing that can tilt this trade in our favor is cash on the sidelines coming in to bolster the SP500.

In addition, if WTIOIL holds steady or gains strength, USDCAD could fall off a short-term cliff. I would expect that 1.34 will be tested in the next couple of weeks and maybe sooner.

Alright USDCAD Trade New Setup

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Target 1.35013

Here is the Trade Entry

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Lets see how this develops

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

After following a pronounced bullish surge in USD/CAD, the price action on the daily timeframe has displayed a certain degree of instability. This has led us to a pivotal juncture as we converge upon a notable supply zone spanning at 1.35700 to 1.36000. As per my comprehensive analysis, the prevailing indications suggest an imminent corrective phase.

I am Initiating a Short position at the present level of 1.35500 aligns with the anticipation of a pullback in price. The initial take profit objective is situated at 1.35000, while a secondary take profit level has been identified at 1.34700.It's important to note that these objectives are aligned with the interim corrective phase.

All trading Positions outlined in this Analysis can be monitored and documented within Profile's Trading Journal.

Considering the broader perspective, the long-term trajectory reveals a target of 1.33000. This prospective level takes into account extended market dynamics and is reflective of an extended timeframe.

NOTE : It is prudent to approach this analysis with a disciplined risk management strategy, accounting for potential deviations from the projected price movement.

OK USDCAD TRADE I add here one Sell Trade

Sell Trade is Still On Target TP Shown In Screenshot



It is 1.35326 But can be Upgraded if needed

OK The Target Was Hit For A Nice Profit And Gain

Here Is The Screenshot Of The Trade Completed

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Currently I Have no trade on USDCAD

Set and forget. Let price do what it does. Let EA buy/sell untested fractal lines. Stressfree trading

We set two buys and two sells. One for a scalp and one smaller position as a trailer

USDCAD H1 CHART

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USD/CAD (Daily): the price is now consolidating at the major resistance zone.
If the local support is broken, we may see the beginning of a downtrend towards the 1.31600 area

I believe you Chief