100 Trades Analysis

Updates on S/L's of open trades

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/9844/picnr0.jpg

hilmy

ive looked through this thread but didn't find an answer to this question--what is your exact method?

So I finally completed my first 20 trades, thanks to the EUROCAD.

Here are the results:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 144pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=192 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=3 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 96pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" width=128 colSpan=2 height=17>Total trades</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=64 x:num>20</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Winning trades</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>7</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Percent wins</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.35">35%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Net pips</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>46</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Average R</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>-0.21</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Average duration</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">2.9 days</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Total positive pips</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>479</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Total negative pips</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>-433</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Average positive pips</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>68</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Average negative pips</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>33</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

You can also check the excel attached for more details.

Observation:
Well, when I look at the statistics, I say to myself, this system does not look at all impressive. BUT, with only 35% wins, I did manage to end up positive.

This means one of two things, I'm lucky for these first 20 trades OR my money management is efficient enough to protect me against a low percentage win system.

One of the things I find interesting is the average pips win/loss vs R. To recap, R is the ratio of the pips you gain (positive or negative) relative to the initial pips risked when you open a position. So if you open a position risking 10 pips, and when you closed the tradee with 20 pips, your R is 2 (2x the risk).
So here we have our R to be -0.21. this is a very good example of how deceptive pips can be. Even when I have a good average winning/loss pips ratio (68/33), my R (or expectancy) for this particular system is negative. This means that in the LONG term, I would LOSE money. So therefore, I needed to modify this a little bit to enhance it's profitability.

My goal is:
To increase the percentage wins (35% ain't cutting it for me)
To increase the R (expectancy) value, to at least 1.00
Minimize drawdowns

However, before I end the analysis, I want to point out something that EVERYONE should note
MONEY MANAGEMENT is the single most important aspect of your trading strategy. If you have been following my thread from the beginning, you know I had series of losses. However, proper money management have steered me away from being out of the trading game completely.

I'm on my next 20 trades and have added a filter and see how the results would come out.

ps. I find this so freakin interesting

This is a better version of the excel with the dates open included

New Trades

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/1338/piceo4.jpg

Trade #33
GBPJPY
Risk percent: 2%

Trade #34
AUDNZD
Risk percent: 2%

Trade #35
EUROAUD
Risk percent: 2%

Trade #36
EUROJPY
Risk percent: 2%

Trade #37
AUDJPY
Risk percent: 2%

aight i'm out..

Looking over your stats, I don't really find anything bad. One thing though, and no offense intended, I think your "R" and the importance you place on that is flawed. The measures for any system should be winning% win/loss size, and, derived from that, expectancy. Your expextancy is positive, although it could be improved.

Expectancy= (winning%*average win size) - (losing%*average loss size)

Your expectancy, using the values you provided just a few posts ago, show an expectancy of 2.35 pips. Now the closer your expectancy is to your average win size is an indicator (IMO) that you have got something great. Right now, your expectancy is closer to your average loss than your average win, but it's still positive, which is the main thing.

I wish you success, and don't get hung up too much on stats.

andersenws

Oh yea, I found that same calculation somewhere else. Maybe I misunderstood what expectancy is when i read van tharp's book. Thanks

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/8100/piccc1.jpg

If it was couple of months ago, I would have closed these and be one happy dude. But now, I'm like sort of indifferent towards these kinds of things.

I just finished reading your thread.
It's very good and wish you best of luck.

I have some questions.
First, I've noted you dont't use a TP on the trade and I don't think I read about any TP on the thread.
So, what's your rule for that? I saw on your images some trades with even +200 but you don't close.
So, does your system tells you the TP? Is it the same for every trade?
I think if you would have had a TP of let's say 150 or 200 pips your results for the first 20 trades would had been much better.

Am I right or I am missing something?

Updates of S/L's on open trades

http://img92.imageshack.us/img92/6910/picah4.jpg

Trade #21
NZDUSD
Stopped @ 0.6691
Net pips: 44 pips
R: 0.80

New trades open

http://img92.imageshack.us/img92/7115/pickk6.jpg

Trade #38
EUROGBP
Risk percent: 2%

Trade #39
CHFJPY
Risk percent: 1%

When I opened the SHORT on CHFJPY, I felt an troublesome feeling of a newbie; fear.

I never had a trade that went well with this pair. This is probably one of those crazy range market that doesn't trend well, but, I reasoned with myself. I said that in order for me to analyze data, I need to take any bias out of my analysis. If the trade goes bad, oh well. I need to remind myself of the uniqueness of each trade opportunity. Past history does not predict future performance.

So there you go, an example of dealing with emotional trading

Well before I answer your question, remember this phrase:
Let your profits run, and keep your losses short...

So everybody has their own style of trading. Some doesn't believe in s/l, some use t/p and some don't

I'm one of those people who doesn't believe in t/p. This is because I feel that t/p limits your potential gains. Why is it that everyone can all agree we cannot predict the future of the prices, but still able to practice t/p???
Isn't that a contradiction? If you believe that you cannot predict the future, then I feel then it is only logical to leave the trade alone.

However, I do move my s/l as you can see to lock in profits, but I NEVER manually close a trade. What if the trade decides to go to 300 or 400 pips or even more. Who to say that is not achievable. TP just limits your potential thus giving you the 'security' that you have closed the trades for profit. I think moving your s/l to lock in profits is better then t/p (just my opinion)

I also have a SHORT signal on NZDUSD with S/L @ 0.6714. Percent risk 1%

I couldn't take this trade cause I already have too many positions open and it would risk margin call.

I think I need to limit my open trades to like 10% total risk. These many positions make me nervous about margin call

This proves my point. Basically fundamental news pretty much helped me out on this one. Let it ride to infinity is what I say! Some trades did close for losses, but it's early in the morning so I'll update my trades later.

http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3082/picmc1.jpg

daaaaaayumn..i'm looking at usdchf and eurousd and the charts look pretty retarded. But oh well..no complains here.

Happy Black Friday everyone..get those items before the sale's over!!!

This is a very good point because if you are going along with a trend there is no need to cut your own profits. Your maximum profit potential stops at your stop loss once you are in a winning trend. The GBP is making new highs and thankfully I have a stop following at a safe distance. Merry Christmas.

Now that Oanda maintenace is over, let's update a few things

Trade #34
AUDNZD
Stopped @ 1.1536
Net pips: -13 pips
R: -0.30

Trade #39
CHFJPY
Stopped @ 95.38
Net pips: -26 pips
R: -1.00

Trade #36
EUROJPY
Stopped @ 151.05
Net pips: 1 pip
R: 0.02

Trade #33
GBPJPY
Stopped @ 223.38
Net pips: 2 pips
R: 0.03

Update of S/L's of open positions. http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/9949/picuq8.jpg