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Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System

  • #161
  • May 25, 2007 12:43pm May 25, 2007 12:43pm
are the live trading sessions still being held?
if so, where?
  • #162
  • May 25, 2007 1:02pm May 25, 2007 1:02pm
Spud I am really leaning toward your 20 pip/day idealogy.

Nickel and diming for steady profits is the best approach, if you ask me. Many folks taut 120 and 50 pip gains, but over time I am thinking 20 is just fine.

Take Collective2's ExtremeOS system. The goal is to make a VERY small gain each and every day. Who wouldn't want an equity curve that looks like this?

To each their own I guess. I am following Breakout more carefully now, and applaud the work you've done.
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  • #163
  • May 25, 2007 1:09pm May 25, 2007 1:09pm
Quoting tdion
Spud I am really leaning toward your 20 pip/day idealogy.

Nickel and diming for steady profits is the best approach, if you ask me. Many folks taut 120 and 50 pip gains, but over time I am thinking 20 is just fine.

Take Collective2's ExtremeOS system. The goal is to make a VERY small gain each and every day. Who wouldn't want an equity curve that looks like this?

To each their own I guess. I am following Breakout more carefully now, and applaud the work you've done.
I am happy you see the wisdom of the 20 pip a day approach. So many people believe it is a limitation but I feel it is the exact opposite. Unfortunately to know this is to use it.

Glad I could help.
  • #164
  • May 25, 2007 1:27pm May 25, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting PiPr Pro
are the live trading sessions still being held?
if so, where?
I apologize that I haven't been trading "live" as much as I would like as I wrap up some documentation. However live trading does go on at www.tradingrooms.com in the MTF Traders room and I will get back to it in my trading journal next week to summarize trades and to indicate trade opportunities I will enter.

I hope to have the documentation done for this weekend and get back to trading.

I will still be much focused on GJ as this is my favorite pair to trade. I may trade other pairs just to show the systems but in my "normal" realm of life I would only trade GJ.

You will see me most active during live trades just before a trading event happens...most noteably GJ, I am not too active on Fridays as I don't like to carry trades over the weekend...but will usually trade Friday morning 6 am - noon. I do trade on Sunday evening but typically I am watching to gear up for the week...but if opportunity arises I will take it.

My weekly trading is done usually from 6 am to noon est and 7 pm-midnight est.
  • #165
  • May 25, 2007 1:53pm May 25, 2007 1:53pm
Quoting ergon
Yes, your right. None of the the numbers you and I quoted are fib numbers. Fib numbers are actually integers. But we traders tend to use ratios of fib's although I don't think using the ratios is the best way of using fib values for determining a TP. I prefer to use the integer value. Sorry to have taken this thread off topic. I won't say any more about this.
Sorry, I meant to say that the numbers I gave were ratios, not the actual numbers in the integer sequence. My point was that .786 or .764 are not fib ratios.
  • #166
  • May 25, 2007 1:57pm May 25, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting tdion
Take Collective2's ExtremeOS system. The goal is to make a VERY small gain each and every day. Who wouldn't want an equity curve that looks like this?
We all would--unfortunately the realism factor as rated by c2 on this is in the 60's--not good at all. TeamAphid has a system on c2 that has done quite well so far, has a beautiful equity curve, and has a realism factor of 100--in other words, it actually works in real life. Not trying to promote them, just emphasizing that there's a difference between theory and practice.
  • #167
  • May 25, 2007 1:59pm May 25, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting Spudfyre
You will see me most active during live trades just before a trading event happens...most noteably GJ, I am not too active on Fridays as I don't like to carry trades over the weekend...but will usually trade Friday morning 6 am - noon. I do trade on Sunday evening but typically I am watching to gear up for the week...but if opportunity arises I will take it.

My weekly trading is done usually from 6 am to noon est and 7 pm-midnight est.
SpudFyre, how is the activity in your experience during the 7-midnight hours versus the 6-noon hours? I'm looking to establish some solid trading hours and those were two of my options--what is your opinion?
  • #168
  • May 26, 2007 8:33am May 26, 2007 8:33am
Quoting JoshDance
SpudFyre, how is the activity in your experience during the 7-midnight hours versus the 6-noon hours? I'm looking to establish some solid trading hours and those were two of my options--what is your opinion?
I have no trouble finding trades between 7-midnight....usually watching GBPJPY. The market is obviously slower but still plenty of good opportunities. It also allows me to see if waking up at 3 am is going to be necessary or if I can just sleep.

Even if I'm not getting any trades those evening hours set the tone for the next day and I usually "see" more from the market the next day having watched last night's moves.
  • #169
  • Edited May 27, 2007 12:53pm May 26, 2007 8:32pm | Edited May 27, 2007 12:53pm
  •  iya
  • | Joined Oct 2006 | Status: always protect yourself | 129 Posts
The first one worked for higher timeframes, JoshDance's worked for lower timeframes, so I figured the next logical step would be one that works for all timeframes. To top it off, I included linear interpolation for higher timeframes, so they don't look as rugged anymore!

Let's hope it works live, as the market is closed right now.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #MTF Stochastic.mq4   3 KB | 895 downloads
  • #170
  • Edited 3:27am May 27, 2007 2:58am | Edited 3:27am
Hi Spud, I did not take this short trade thankfully. A few hours later the price turned long. Would you care to comment on the attached chart for 21 March 2007. The top chart is H1, the middle chart is M30 and the lower chart is H4. Thank you in advance.
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  • #171
  • May 27, 2007 3:01am May 27, 2007 3:01am
Another potential trade on 21 March I did not take. Can you comment here also?
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  • #172
  • May 27, 2007 7:00am May 27, 2007 7:00am
Quoting PiPr Pro
Hi Spud, I did not take this short trade thankfully. A few hours later the price turned long. Would you care to comment on the attached chart for 21 March 2007. The top chart is H1, the middle chart is M30 and the lower chart is H4. Thank you in advance.
I am a little confused or perhaps I have confused people? I marked on your chart the indications but this is indicating a long entry. You indicate you were looking for a short trade from this?
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  • #173
  • May 27, 2007 7:08am May 27, 2007 7:08am
Quoting PiPr Pro
Another potential trade on 21 March I did not take. Can you comment here also?
I assuming you were looking for a short entry here too? Again this would have been a long entry where price crossed the and closed above 100 and all stochs on all 3 time frames are crossing or above 76.4.
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  • #174
  • May 27, 2007 7:35am May 27, 2007 7:35am
Here's my take on the MArch 21st entry for a long break out.

The moving averages above 100 Fib level is a good sign for an entry.
The price closed above 100 Fib level
The stochastics on 30M, 1H and 4H are all above 76.4

The 1H time frame trade would have lost 17 pips + spread since the 1H 14,3,3 stochastic came back across 76.4

The 4H time frame trade would have had an opportunity to grab over 100 pips before the 4H 14,3,3 stochastic crossed 76.4. If we were greedy then we ran the 4H stoch to 14,3,3 cross and lost 39 pips.

The end result was that there was no real breakout here and with the 1H as our standard exit point we would have lost 17 pips + spread on this one.
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  • #175
  • May 27, 2007 9:42am May 27, 2007 9:42am
From the various communications I have had with other traders, it is difficult for those working or who cannot trade full time to use some of my methods.

As such I've been developing a 4 hour trading method of the MTF FIB Breakout system, which I call MTF FIBOx4. It provides the option of using the 4 hour close and 4H time frame trade window so that the trader need only check every 4 hours for trade entry/exit. It also includes some upgrades I have been working on to help filter trades. This system also includes the 1H exit strategy as well.

FIBOx4 Rules:

3 time frames: 4H, 1H, 30M
Entries are on 4H close only

Indicator checklist:
Price must cross and close above 100 or below 0 Fibonacci as per regular MTF Fibonacci rules

Moving Averages must be near, close to or already above the 100 or below the 0 Fibonacci. "Near" means it appears the MA's will cross. This is more common on the 4H time frame. It is best that either the 1H or 4H time frame has the MA's across before entering a trade.

Stochastics should be above 76.4 with price above 100 or below 23.6 with price below 0. More emphasis is with the 14,3,3 stochastic than the 5,3,3 stochastic. It is viable to enter with the 5,3,3 not in the entry range, but best to have at least 2 time frames with all stochs in the entry range.

Candle Indicator: This is new. Simply any candle with the same open and close price on the 4H or 1H that appears at or before entry is a good sign for the trade. This is a "feel good" indicator rather than a decision making indicator, so don't restrict entry in a trade if the CI is not present.

Exit options are:

When you have made some good pips.
4H when 14,3,3 crosses 76.4 down (long) or 23.6 up (short).
1H when 14,3,3 crosses 76.4 down (long) or 23.6 up (short).
When MA's reach +200 or -100
When price crosses +200 or -100

Best exit is always being pip positive! So use trailing stops or move the stops up to keep some profit if we don't want to risk taking a loss.

Some Tips:
I find the MA's to be more important than price for crossing.
Price candles almost always touch the MA's, so when entering and exiting trades this information is useful for timing.
If the entry at close of candle is too far (i.e. above 150 or below -50) it may be a good idea to pass on the trade as "bad timing" since there won't be many pips to grab anyways. If trend continues we will grab the break on the next day and timing may be better.
Entry can be made on 1H close with 30M support.

The green area on the chart represents the 1H entry and exit and the green and yellow areas combined are the 4H entry and exit.
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  • #176
  • May 27, 2007 4:42pm May 27, 2007 4:42pm
Quoting Spudfyre
I am a little confused or perhaps I have confused people? I marked on your chart the indications but this is indicating a long entry. You indicate you were looking for a short trade from this?
Hi Spud - thanks a bunch - because I had been working so many hours on charts I was not clear. On the first chart, I did take the long trade but did not close out and take the 80/20 trade short because the more conservative entry of H4 was not in agreement with the H1 & M30.

As you know, there had been a string of great trades in March, this was one of the rare trades that was tough or slightly negative. Now that I have made this more clear do you care to comment on whether you would have gone short after the long trade. In other words when the H1-14,3,3 crosses back over the 76.4 and the MTF Stochs are tight and in sync with one another heading down, do you normally take the reverse in the short direction? If so, may I assume you only take the reverse if the H4 is in agreement? Thank you in advance.
  • #177
  • May 27, 2007 5:32pm May 27, 2007 5:32pm
Hi

I got new indicator from my friend. I opened that using Microsoft Word by mistake. Now all custom indicators have turned to word icon. I download again that new indicator but it turns to word from original mql. It's causing me big frustration.

I need help.

Thanks
  • #178
  • May 27, 2007 5:59pm May 27, 2007 5:59pm
The following link will take you to the Microsoft Knowledge Base article that explains how to change file type associations. It should help you fix your problem.

http://support.microsoft.com/kb/307859

oo7_ts

Quoting young_09
Hi

I got new indicator from my friend. I opened that using Microsoft Word by mistake. Now all custom indicators have turned to word icon. I download again that new indicator but it turns to word from original mql. It's causing me big frustration.

I need help.

Thanks
  • #179
  • May 27, 2007 6:17pm May 27, 2007 6:17pm
Quoting PiPr Pro
Hi Spud - thanks a bunch - because I had been working so many hours on charts I was not clear. On the first chart, I did take the long trade but did not close out and take the 80/20 trade short because the more conservative entry of H4 was not in agreement with the H1 & M30.

As you know, there had been a string of great trades in March, this was one of the rare trades that was tough or slightly negative. Now that I have made this more clear do you care to comment on whether you would have gone short after the long trade. In other words when the H1-14,3,3 crosses back over the 76.4 and the MTF Stochs are tight and in sync with one another heading down, do you normally take the reverse in the short direction? If so, may I assume you only take the reverse if the H4 is in agreement? Thank you in advance.
I typically don't trade the short on an exit by the 1H 14,3,3. I prefer to have the 4H 14,3,3 signal the beginning and enter when the 1H and 30M line up with the 4H. It's more successful that way.
  • #180
  • May 27, 2007 7:14pm May 27, 2007 7:14pm
Quoting Spudfyre
I typically don't trade the short on an exit by the 1H 14,3,3. I prefer to have the 4H 14,3,3 signal the beginning and enter when the 1H and 30M line up with the 4H. It's more successful that way.
thanks again
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