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my adventure with a semi-martingale system 4 replies

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Attachments: Art's REAL life Fozzy adventure
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Art's REAL life Fozzy adventure

He started trading with higher lots and unfortunately took some losses. Then he lower his lots and started winning...leading him back on the road to recovery...
Quoting TradeStar
Hi Artamon,
So in spite of 65% winning trades, your account balance went down by 6% or am I missing something.
Thanks for posting your results.
TradeStar
Correct. Bad choices in lot size had a lot to do with this. For example, my first ever live trade accounts for 3.56% of that loss.

Looking back through the trades, the biggest issue has been that even though my first TP target was reached often and half the lots taken at that position, very few then went on to hit my next TP. But, many retraced to hit BE. I've yet to look at the specifics, but I believe the results would have been better had ALL lots been exited at my first TP.

In short, the current results have more to do with the trader than the system.

Cheers,
Art...
it always has to do with trader, bro, whichever system you use..



Quoting Artamon
Correct. Bad choices in lot size had a lot to do with this. For example, my first ever live trade accounts for 3.56% of that loss.

Looking back through the trades, the biggest issue has been that even though my first TP target was reached often and half the lots taken at that position, very few then went on to hit my next TP. But, many retraced to hit BE. I've yet to look at the specifics, but I believe the results would have been better had ALL lots been exited at my first TP.

In short, the current results have more to do with the trader than the system.

Cheers,
Art...
G'day,

Last week was a mixed bag, but overall it was a losing week:

# Winning trades: 52
# Losing trades: 32
# BE trades: 12
Move from previous week (%): -1.69%
 Acct Increase (%): -8.57%
MaxDD (%): -11.36%

Cheers,
Art...
Hi Artamon,

I'd like to share with you some of my experiences.

After couple of months of digesting Fozzy thread and demoing it, I started to trade Fozzy on real mini account @ May 1.
I came to the same conclusion: closing half position, and let the rest run to TP2 worked out very rare (actually it worked only 2 times out of my 11 May's trades). I played out scenario where I closed whole position at TP1, and it would be 2% monthly result increase!!!!
This was my first month of systematic Fozzy trading, and I managed to increase my account by 1.5% (I planned to lose up to 3%).
Funny enough, I had only 52% of winning trades, but I used religiously Fiji money management approach gotten from James16 Group (it really saved me from lot of troubles).
I traded James16's Price Action (demo), and Fozzy (real) in parallel. Fozzy outperformed !!!
However, it looks to me that there are certain Price Action ideas that would benefit Fozzy, so I'm going to apply them to Fozzy in June, and, of course, "will not let the profit run ".

Good trading for all
AlexJ
Quoting AlexJ
This was my first month of systematic Fozzy trading, and I managed to increase my account by 1.5%.
Good trading for all
AlexJ
"systematic Fozzy trading"..................key to success!
G'day Alex,

Quoting AlexJ
I came to the same conclusion: closing half position, and let the rest run to TP2 worked out very rare (actually it worked only 2 times out of my 11 May's trades). I played out scenario where I closed whole position at TP1, and it would be 2% monthly result increase!!!!
For me, it's good to see my own results reproduced by others. However, the above scenario has more to do with me and the way I'm trading fozzy (SL's too tight maybe, TP levels too ambitious?). Nonetheless, it wasn't working the way it did on demo forward test so I needed to amend. To this end I have also stopped picking which trades to take and now take all valid Fozzy signals. It's only been a week, but it's been a good week.

I won't be trading any more this week as I'm away on business, so the results are as follows:

This week
# Winning trades: 8
# Losing trades: 2
Acct Increase (%): +2.29%

Overall
# Winning trades: 60 (56.60%)
# Losing trades: 34 (32.08%)
# BE trades: 12 (11.32%)
Acct Increase (%): -6.28%
MaxDD (%): -11.36%

Cheers,
Art...
G'day BB,

Quoting BeachBum
"systematic Fozzy trading"..................key to success!
I have come to realise this. I thought I could "pick" which trades to go with and which to avoid but if you pick wrong, you're toast! Best to let the Fozzy pick and your SL will weed out the bad ones.

Cheers,
Art...
I am curious as to whether you utilize a BB in your decision making process as to if you will take a trade or not, or is your approcah based soley on the cross of the rsi and sma. Also did you switch to a broker that doesnt provide sunday bars? If so could you kindly inform me which broker.

P.S. Henry might be in barcelona next yr. And Henry is Arsenal.

happy pippin
G'day nikim,

Quoting nikim
I am curious as to whether you utilize a BB in your decision making process as to if you will take a trade or not, or is your approcah based soley on the cross of the rsi and sma. Also did you switch to a broker that doesnt provide sunday bars? If so could you kindly inform me which broker.
I use the EA to get me into trades and it does take into account where the cross is in relation to BB mid line.

I am still with interbankfx. I have chosen to not trade on Mondays unless the cross was from the previous bar (not Sunday bar).

Quote
P.S. Henry might be in barcelona next yr. And Henry is Arsenal.
I love Henry. He is a rare talent. But as much as it pains me to say it, Henry's best years are behind him. He can still be a force up forward but he appears to be very injury prone the last couple of years. I'd love for him to finish at the Arse, but if he moves on I hope they get a bucketload for him. One player does not a team make. For example, Viera. He moved on and Fabregas moved right on in. Now, if Cesc was to move back to Spain, that's another matter altogether.

Cheers,
Art...
same experience here, of past few weeks.. i usually trade 2 lots, this week i started 3..once 1st tp reached i move all lots to be.. unfortunately the % of trades reaching tp2 let alone tp3 is very low..if i had closed all at tp1, wld have been better.

good case is eurjpy long yesterday

tp1 was + 25 pips (half of 0.7 atr).. if i had closed all thee lots at that, wld have had + 75 pips..instead of the +25 i ended up.

i also think there is no easy answer to this. it is all down to trader psychology. closing all at tp1 will mean you will miss out on the occassional long runs that occur, which more than make up for the smaller losses..

art - also agree with you of taking most trade except those that go against common sense. i was very discriminating in the trades i used to take feb to april and invariably the more you discriminate the more your losses mount..



[quote=Artamon;1454857]G'day Alex,


For me, it's good to see my own results reproduced by others. However, the above scenario has more to do with me and the way I'm trading fozzy (SL's too tight maybe, TP levels too ambitious?). Nonetheless, it wasn't working the way it did on demo forward test so I needed to amend. To this end I have also stopped picking which trades to take and now take all valid Fozzy signals. It's only been a week, but it's been a good week.
G'day all,

This week was a very slow week for my Fozzy. It was so slow I actually made the mistake of taking some non-fozzy trades around news times (that's 2 big woopsies for me). No damage done, but there could have been.

In saying that, however, I also made the executive decision that GBPUSD (short entry @ 1.9780) and EURUSD (short entry @ 1.3427) had run their course and were not value trades. Ahem. I believe I was incorrect in that assessment. Dumbass!

Anyway, the results:

This week
# Winning trades: 5
# Losing trades: 4
# BE trades: 1
 Acct Increase (%): -0.74%

Overall
# Winning trades: 65 (56..03%)
# Losing trades: 38 (32.76%)
# BE trades: 13 (11.21%)
Acct Increase (%): -7.02%
MaxDD (%): -11.36%

Cheers,
Art...
Hi Art,

Just wondering: I got almost the same trades last week (5 winners & 4 losers), but my account increased by 1.32%. I attach my summary (P/L/Sizing) calculator, if you are interested I can publish xls file.

Cheers
AlexJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sum.jpg Size: 47 KB
G'day Alex,

I just went through my trades and only a few match what you have shown. Firstly, upto now I haven't been trading any swissy based pairs as they didn't forward test well for me, but they were all winners for you this week. However, I have been reading a bit of late where others are having some success with these trades, so I may include them in my "watch" list.

Which broker do you use? I'm with IBFX (GMT). This is also a contributing factor to the difference in trades.

I suppose it's hard for people to compare without having the actual trades to compare against. I changed my way of documenting on here just to make it easier for me, but that was probably not the best thing to do. I'll go back to listing all my trades but only at the end of the week. Or, maybe just a screenshot of my trading log book, as you have done above.I believe it is important for people to compare in order to gauge the performance of their own trades.

Quoting AlexJ
I attach my summary (P/L/Sizing) calculator, if you are interested I can publish xls file.
I'd like to have a look at this if the offer still stands.

Cheers,
Art...
Hi Art,

I use InterbankFx (I think abbreviation IBFX stands for it) (GMT).
I attached my spreadsheet, hope it’ll make sense to you.

Cheers
Alex
Uups, it did not attach, the second attempt:
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip MM.zip   67 KB | 283 downloads
G'day all,

Following are the Fozzy trades I took for the week:

12/6/07 - EURCAD Short @ 1.4141 - SL hit @ 1.4205: -64
13/6/07 - AUDJPY Short @ 102.08 - SL hit @ 102.65: -57
13/6/07 - GBPUSD Long @ 1.9744 - SL hit @ 1.9685: -59
13/6/07 - AUDUSD Short @ 0.8398 - Trailing hit @ 0.8397: +1
13/6/07 - EURJPY Long @ 162.67 - Exit @ 163.00: +33 (Based off 4hr chart)
14/6/07 - GBPJPY Long @ 241.82 - Exit @ 242.22: +40
14/6/07 - USDJPY Long @ 122.60 - Partial exit (TP1) @ 122.95: +35
14/6/07 - EURJPY Long @ 163.16 - Exit @ 163.56: +40
14/6/07 - CHFJPY Long @ 98.52 - Partial exit (TP1) @ 98.82: +30
14/6/07 - CHFJPY Long @ 98.52 - Trailing hit @ 98.55: +3
14/6/07 - USDJPY Long @ 122.60 - TP2 hit @ 123.50: +90
15/6/07 - AUDCAD Short @ 0.8922 - Trailing hit @ 0.8922: 0

Trades still open:
15/6/07 - EURAUD Long @ 1.5930 - SL @ 1.5860
15/6/07 - EURGBP Long @ 0.6761 - SL @ 0.6741
15/6/07 - AUDNZD Short @ 1.1115 - SL @ 1.1165

From the above trades one thing really stands out - I need to learn to book some profit and let the winners run for much much longer. If you check the charts you'll notice a couple of the pairs moved a further 100+ pips from where I exited. Fear? Uncertainty? Doubt? All of the above.

In addition to the above trades, I took a couple of intraday AUDUSD trades that didn't quite work out. I won't list them above (as the fozzy is all I'm really concerned with) but these trades will count in my tally below (not including trades still open):

This week
# Winning trades: 8
# Losing trades: 5
# BE trades: 1
 Acct Increase (%): -0.56%

Overall
# Winning trades: 73 (56.15%)
# Losing trades: 43 (33.08%)
# BE trades: 14 (10.77%)
Acct Increase (%): -7.58%
MaxDD (%): -11.36%

Cheers,
Art...
G'day all,

I had a very poor Fozzy week last week, and the fact that I could only trade up until Thursday didn't help the situation.

The results were as follows:

Open trades from last week that closed:
15/6/07 - EURAUD Long @ 1.5930 - SL hit @ 1.5860: -70
15/6/07 - EURGBP Long @ 0.6761 - SL hit @ 0.6741: -20
15/6/07 - AUDNZD Short @ 1.1115 - SL hit @ 1.1165: -50

New trades:
20/6/07 - EURGBP Short @ 0.6753 - Exit @ 0.6743: +10
20/6/07 - EURGBP Short @ 0.6737 - Exit @ 0.6723: +14
20/6/07 - AUDCAD Short @ 0.8989 - SL hit @ 0.9035: -46
20/6/07 - USDCAD Short @ 1.0624 - TP1 hit @ 1.0661: +37
20/6/07 - USDCAD Short @ 1.0624 - Trailing hit @ 1.0671: +47
20/6/07 - NZDUSD Long @ 0.7589 - TP1 hit @ 0.7603: +14
20/6/07 - NZDUSD Long @ 0.7589 - Trailing hit @ 0.7597: +8
20/6/07 - AUDUSD Long @ 0.8467 - SL hit @ 0.8431: -36
21/6/07 - AUDNZD Short @ 1.1101 - TP1 hit @ 1.1060: +41
21/6/07 - AUDNZD Short @ 1.1101 - Trailing hit @ 1.1081: +20
21/6/07 - EURCHF Short @ 1.6590 - SL hit @ 1.6627: -37
21/6/07 - AUDJPY Short @ 104.25 - SL hit @ 104.79: -54

This week
# Winning trades: 8
# Losing trades: 7
# BE trades: 0
 Acct Increase (%): -4.18%

Overall
# Winning trades: 81 (56.64%)
# Losing trades: 48 (33.57%) (corrected 2 less losing trades from last week)
# BE trades: 14 (9.79%)
Acct Increase (%): -11.76%
MaxDD (%): -11.76%

Cheers,
Art...
G'day all,

Well I seem to be running very hot and cold on alternate weeks. I think this has more to do with the trends available in the markets. I suppose the key would be to really grab hold of a trend when it is present and ride it for all it's worth. And, when the market chops all over the place, have some trust in your system that it will save you much grief. But, in order for it to do this I believe you must have a favourable R:R ratio otherwise any gains will be wiped out by fewer losses. I don't think 1:1 can cut it.

Anyway, here's the week's results:

25/6/07 - AUDUSD Long @ 0.8486 - Trailing stop hit @ 0.8466: -20
26/6/07 - GBPJPY Short @ 246.84 - TP1 hit @ 246.43: +41
26/6/07 - GBPJPY Short @ 246.84 - Trailing stop hit @ 245.70: +114
26/6/07 - EURJPY Short @ 166.35 - TP1 hit @ 165.94: +41
26/6/07 - EURJPY Short @ 166.35 - Trailing stop hit @ 165.43: +92
26/6/07 - USDJPY Short @ 123.54 - TP1 hit @ 123.14: +40
26/6/07 - USDJPY Short @ 123.54 - Trailing stop hit @ 123.24: +30
26/6/07 - AUDCAD Short @ 0.9058 - TP1 hit @ 0.9018: +40
26/6/07 - AUDCAD Short @ 0.9058 - Trailing stop hit @ 0.9039: +19
27/6/07 - GBPJPY Short @ 245.64 - TP1 hit @ 245.23: +41
27/6/07 - GBPJPY Short @ 245.64 - Trailing stop hit @ 244.46: +118
27/6/07 - CHFJPY Short @ 100.09 - TP1 hit @ 99.65: +44
27/6/07 - CHFJPY Short @ 100.09 - Trailing stop hit @ 99.80: +29

This week
# Winning trades: 12
# Losing trades: 1
# BE trades: 0
 Acct Increase (%): +4.48% (from previous week)

Overall
# Winning trades: 93 (59.62%)
# Losing trades: 49 (31.41%)
# BE trades: 14 (8.97%)
Acct Increase (%): -7.80%
MaxDD (%): -11.76%

Cheers,
Art...

P.S. I just realised that I may be calculating my weekly % increase incorrectly. I have been comparing my weekly P/L against my starting account balance. But, as the weeks pass and the balance rises and falls, the original starting balance is of less value. How do others do it? Is the correct method to compare your P/L for the week against the account balance at the start of that week? I will do that from this week on unless there is some reason I shouldn't be.

the way you measure account growth is right. you shd not measure it against weekly balance but against original capital..

we are here to make money from the initial capital, not measure growth against a bad week...



P.S. I just realised that I may be calculating my weekly % increase incorrectly. I have been comparing my weekly P/L against my starting account balance. But, as the weeks pass and the balance rises and falls, the original starting balance is of less value. How do others do it? Is the correct method to compare your P/L for the week against the account balance at the start of that week? I will do that from this week on unless there is some reason I shouldn't be.[/quote]
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