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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #341
  • May 22, 2007 9:13am May 22, 2007 9:13am
Quoting megamo
Hello Igrok, I uploaded a chart of the usdchf weekly.. Could you verify if I have drawn the trendlines accurately based on your book, because according to the way I have drawn it, usdchf weekly currently seeme to be forming a triangle if the usdchf makes a weekly top this week.. Even though I feel with such a strong trend, it may go and test the 1.25 level..

Thanks.
USD/CHF on monthly. I guess, the lower line is a bulletproof level and it should target the opposite side of its range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly FXUSSFMUL.jpg Size: 35 KB
  • #342
  • May 22, 2007 9:18am May 22, 2007 9:18am
Besides, USD/CHF has bounced off of the last rising support that can be drawn on the chart. It's likely that we have seen the low of the year already.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly FXUSSFMUL.jpg Size: 39 KB
  • #343
  • May 22, 2007 9:21am May 22, 2007 9:21am
This trendline is the most likely target for the moment also likely to be reached before the end of the year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly FXUSSFMUL.jpg Size: 34 KB
  • #344
  • May 22, 2007 12:28pm May 22, 2007 12:28pm
Hi Igrok,

The SNB president said, that he sees problems with a weakening Franc and that the market could see a surprising correction.

How does this fit into your picture of a move up on USD/CHF?

Kurti
  • #345
  • May 22, 2007 12:56pm May 22, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting Igrok
Besides, USD/CHF has bounced off of the last rising support that can be drawn on the chart. It's likely that we have seen the low of the year already.

Igrok, a month eariler you had mentioned that the chf is bound to see the 1.13 level, it has since taken a strong upward move.. Given that we may have seen the low of the year, (since the gbp has probably done a top as well and moving down) are we not targeting the 1.13 level anymore, or is that based more on a monthly level with targets next year??
  • #346
  • May 22, 2007 2:28pm May 22, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting Kurti
Hi Igrok,

The SNB president said, that he sees problems with a weakening Franc and that the market could see a surprising correction.

How does this fit into your picture of a move up on USD/CHF?

Kurti
I would be pretty much surprised. Exactly like he said.
  • #347
  • Edited 3:05pm May 22, 2007 2:41pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting megamo
Igrok, a month eariler you had mentioned that the chf is bound to see the 1.13 level, it has since taken a strong upward move.. Given that we may have seen the low of the year, (since the gbp has probably done a top as well and moving down) are we not targeting the 1.13 level anymore, or is that based more on a monthly level with targets next year??
It's impossible. I couldn't say anything lilke that. Perhaps you just don't remember correctly. In the very end of 2004 I took a long position on this pair at 1.1300 which then kept open for the whole year and eventually pocketed the entire annual range. I knew that this level is the last and the strongest barrier even then, not talking about a month ago. At the end of last year i thought that USD/CHF ideal bottom for this year would be at around 1.1600-1.1650 and posted this target on my amazon blog, but this target has rather been based on the correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/CHF than on USD/CHF directly. Eventually it appeared that EUR/CHF has even overcompensated that correlation.

Here is the quote posted on December 2, 2006:
"On my opinion, the ideal targets for now are as following:
EUR/USD – 1.3850; USD/CHF – 114.50; Cable 2.0160-70. Also think that at least 1.1640 on USD/CHF is a “must reach” level.
Have no idea whether these targets will be touched before the end of the year or not, but such scenario makes sense to me. Current overbought market conditions can be deceiving and no sizeable retracement will be seen till the end of the year. However it is rather possible that the majors will have to make some intra-month corrective move before finishing up their annual cycles. Those corrections are unlikely to exceed 200-300 pips in size and should be viewed as yet another USD selling opportunity."
  • #348
  • May 22, 2007 5:23pm May 22, 2007 5:23pm
HI Igrok,

Can i get your opinion on the USD/JPY pair.
It seems to have broke out of its triangle on the monthly charts. And if the highs in January at 122.14 gets taken out, the main direction of the move for the year will change from down to up and we can take a long position with the annual range as the target. Is that right
  • #349
  • Edited 6:11pm May 22, 2007 5:58pm | Edited 6:11pm
Quoting jotty
HI Igrok,

Can i get your opinion on the USD/JPY pair.
It seems to have broke out of its triangle on the monthly charts. And if the highs in January at 122.14 gets taken out, the main direction of the move for the year will change from down to up and we can take a long position with the annual range as the target. Is that right
No. The change of the direction of the main move of the year doesn't provide the immediate trading signal. It works only for intraday trading and only if the opposite end of the range is close enough to place protective stops without taking excessive risks. Buying the USD/JPY on the change of the direction of the year would mean that your stops have to be placed below 115.15, which is obviously a nonsense. Selling here with stops above current high of the year would make much more sense from the templates point of view.

However, at this moment I don't have a longer-term view on the USD/JPY. Too many uncertainties related to JPY crosses and carry trades in general. Technical picture also looks obscure. EJ and BJ crosses look overbought at current levels and any unwinding of carry trades on crosses will negatively affect the USD/JPY as well. Technically speaking I would rather sell USD/JPY at around 122.40-50 with just 20 pips stops, but this would be a pure speculation on relatively unimportant technical levels.
  • #350
  • May 22, 2007 6:34pm May 22, 2007 6:34pm
On the very long run this is the only triangular pattern that makes sense for the moment. The correct sequense would be to touch the upper line first and then go all the way down to the lower trendline. Obvioulsy, the picture is totally useless for now from practical point of view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly FXUSJYMUL.jpg Size: 33 KB
  • #351
  • May 22, 2007 7:05pm May 22, 2007 7:05pm
thanks for the quick reply Igrok
  • #352
  • May 22, 2007 7:38pm May 22, 2007 7:38pm
Hi Igrok,
what's your view on GBP/CHF for this year?
it looks like range trader's dream now---
GL/GT
  • #353
  • May 22, 2007 8:04pm May 22, 2007 8:04pm
Quoting mysticgenie
Hi Igrok,
what's your view on GBP/CHF for this year?
it looks like range trader's dream now---
GL/GT
I don't have a view on it. Several different scenarios look equally possible.
  • #354
  • May 22, 2007 9:48pm May 22, 2007 9:48pm
Quoting mysticgenie
Hi Igrok,
what's your view on GBP/CHF for this year?
it looks like range trader's dream now---
GL/GT
bullish for this pair.

i am curious why igrok doesn't have a view on this pair though.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #355
  • May 23, 2007 12:52am May 23, 2007 12:52am
Quoting bravado

i am curious why igrok doesn't have a view on this pair though.
Because longer-term trading is different from intraday. Timing and range are obviously too wide in order to develop any reasonable trading plan at any given moment for a leveraged position. Usually the market provides a trader with just two opportunities a year to enter into a longer-term position targeting anything from 1/2 to a whole annual range. Those are the trades of opportunity and can be taken from very specific major levels bordering some major formations in order to be able to place reasonable stops if a trade goes wrong. There is no major technical level close to the current level on GBP/CHF . It just doesn't make sense to discuss longer-term views on this pair at the moment as no real trade can be suggested.
  • #356
  • May 23, 2007 2:48am May 23, 2007 2:48am
Strange... That major historical fibo level on EUR/JPY at ahead of 164.00 is still holding despite numerous attempts to break higher. Because of that I'm starting to suspect that a new high of the year on GBP/JPY might be out of reach for now.
  • #357
  • May 23, 2007 4:07am May 23, 2007 4:07am
Daily range on Cable is in place while the EUR/USD still has a main move of the day being down. Seems like a good time to short the Euro on 18.4 with very reasonable stops.
  • #358
  • May 23, 2007 4:16am May 23, 2007 4:16am
Quoting Igrok
Strange... That major historical fibo level on EUR/JPY at ahead of 164.00 is still holding despite numerous attempts to break higher. Because of that I'm starting to suspect that a new high of the year on GBP/JPY might be out of reach for now.
Hi Igrok, imo new year high for GBP/JPY is still possible even if EUR/JPY can't break 164 provided that EUR/GBP falls to around 0.6700.
Tra-X
  • #359
  • May 23, 2007 4:20am May 23, 2007 4:20am
Quoting Traex
Hi Igrok, imo new year high for GBP/JPY is still possible even if EUR/JPY can't break 164 provided that EUR/GBP falls to around 0.6700.
Possible. But double top on the GBP/JPY would be ideal outcome.
  • #360
  • Edited 4:50am May 23, 2007 4:24am | Edited 4:50am
In this case I wouldn't be even surprised to see 228.20 by the end of this month. I know, it sounds absolutely crazy, but technically looks possible.
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