Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/JPY

Similar Threads

Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics 1,696 replies

LFB System - London Fib Breakout 45 replies

Fib 4Hour MTF Moving Average 287 replies

Journal related to: Spud's MTF Stochastics 178 replies

Spud's PVX Method 25 replies

Attachments: Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System
Exit Attachments

Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System

  • #101
  • May 21, 2007 12:32pm May 21, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting smartmove
Hi this question's for Pipr Pro what time frame have you used on the examples you gave in post 28, 29, 30 and is that the timeframe you mostly trade and do you have any more tips on fibs and PA

Thanks in advance
The charts were M30 (you can count the bars between period separators). I utilize H1 & M30. Regarding Fibs and PA, my other entries are more aggressive where I will take a bounce off a particular fib level. Those have a lesser win / loss ratio but nevertheless are part of my trading.

My recommendation is to study hundreds of trade set ups the way SPUD has given them to you. He has posted a great system.
  • #102
  • May 21, 2007 6:45pm May 21, 2007 6:45pm
Can someone explain why on some pairs you want both stoch to cross and on others only 5,3,3 or 14,3,3????


Quoting banzai
Here's the new version of my indicator. I have to change the Alerts according to the new rules. Here're some alert messages:

GBPJPY (H1): Both Stochs cross up 76.4%
USDJPY (H1): Only Stoch(5,3,3) crosses up 76.4%
EURJPY (H1): Only Stoch(14,3,3) crosses up 76.4%
EURUSD (H1): Both Stochs cross down 23.6%
GBPUSD (H1): Only Stoch(5,3,3) crosses down 23.6%
USDCAD (H1): Only Stoch(14,3,3) crosses down 23.6%

and then you'll decide whether to buy or sell. It'll alert only once per bar and NOT per second. You can turn the alert on or off.

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/4...212007avl6.gif

EDIT:
I also modified the b-clock indicator so you can change to any color now.
  • #103
  • Edited 11:20pm May 21, 2007 7:39pm | Edited 11:20pm
Version 1.3: MTF (Multi Time Frame)

This time I go MTF. In addition, I added some dots if Stoch (14,3,3) crosses over 23.6% or 76.4%. Only Stoch (14,3,3). You can turn the dots drawing on or off. Attach is a template too.

http://img77.imageshack.us/img77/117...222007ary2.gif
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl Spuds MTF Fib Breakout System.tpl   6 KB | 1,802 downloads
File Type: mq4 #SpudFibo.mq4   5 KB | 1,558 downloads
File Type: mq4 b-clock modified.mq4   2 KB | 1,420 downloads
File Type: mq4 #MTF_FibBreakout1.3.mq4   9 KB | 2,041 downloads
  • #104
  • May 22, 2007 12:21am May 22, 2007 12:21am
Quoting banzai
Version 1.3: MTF (Multi Time Frame)

This time I go MTF. In addition, I added some dots if Stoch (14,3,3) crosses over 23.6% or 76.4%. Only Stoch (14,3,3). You can turn the dots drawing on or off. Attach is a template too.

Thanks mate, now please say your entries and also are you sure fibo's are drawed correctly?
  • #105
  • May 22, 2007 12:44am May 22, 2007 12:44am
Hi guys, I am a little confused. I know we go long when stochs are over 80 and short when stochs are below 20 and we have the break of the 0 or 100 Fib Line...so heres my question. I am reading a book for the second time by Dr. Alexander Elder called Trading for a Living and it says "Do not buy when Stochs is overbought and do not sell short when it is oversold. This rule filters out most bad trades." According to this system however that is ehat we are supposed to do right? I am not doubting the system in anyway as I see many people are succesful with it. I am just wondering if I am not understanding something completely. Thank you in Advance....Joe
  • #106
  • May 22, 2007 2:05am May 22, 2007 2:05am
Quoting jcarrier
Hi guys, I am a little confused. I know we go long when stochs are over 80 and short when stochs are below 20 and we have the break of the 0 or 100 Fib Line...so heres my question. I am reading a book for the second time by Dr. Alexander Elder called Trading for a Living and it says "Do not buy when Stochs is overbought and do not sell short when it is oversold. This rule filters out most bad trades." According to this system however that is ehat we are supposed to do right? I am not doubting the system in anyway as I see many people are succesful with it. I am just wondering if I am not understanding something completely. Thank you in Advance....Joe
Spud has said, in the other thread, that trades within this area have the most momentum. But trades, within the trigger time frame, between 20 and 80 have more movement potential for reversal and therefore more risk. Elder is also correct of course, that is why using spud's method, we exit trades once stoch has crossed back over to 'no-man's land' from 20 or 80 or 23.6, 76.4 respectively.
  • #107
  • May 22, 2007 2:54am May 22, 2007 2:54am
Quoting Porkpie
Spud has said, in the other thread, that trades within this area have the most momentum. But trades, within the trigger time frame, between 20 and 80 have more movement potential for reversal and therefore more risk. Elder is also correct of course, that is why using spud's method, we exit trades once stoch has crossed back over to 'no-man's land' from 20 or 80 or 23.6, 76.4 respectively.
Spud's other MTF stoch methods take the cross of the 20 and 80 into 'no-man's land' for the trade. I think one can be creative with all the info Spud has given us. I just took a trade using the 30/60 min set up and bounce off 50% fib on price when 30min stoch crossed 76.8 south and hourly stoch was curving under 61.8. I exited off the 5min stoch when it crossed upwards over the 20 line. Having a number of techniques in your arsenal allows you to flexible and possibly adapt certain methods to certain types of market behaviour and moods. Identifying which method for which mood could be an interesting thread.
  • #108
  • May 22, 2007 6:54am May 22, 2007 6:54am
Quoting jcarrier
Hi guys, I am a little confused. I know we go long when stochs are over 80 and short when stochs are below 20 and we have the break of the 0 or 100 Fib Line...so heres my question. I am reading a book for the second time by Dr. Alexander Elder called Trading for a Living and it says "Do not buy when Stochs is overbought and do not sell short when it is oversold. This rule filters out most bad trades." According to this system however that is ehat we are supposed to do right? I am not doubting the system in anyway as I see many people are succesful with it. I am just wondering if I am not understanding something completely. Thank you in Advance....Joe
You have it bang on Joe! However, here's the one and only reason we trade when stochs are above 80 (actually 76.4) and below 20 (actually 23.6).

When price moves big time, it will happen here!

Unfortunately, simply trading in these extreme areas every time the stochs enter it is a recipe for disaster. Hence this is why this is called a breakout system.

Breakout System

I cannot emphasize this enough. This is a break out system. Meaning we are looking for timing...timing of a breakout to happen. It won't always happen but when it does we want to be there to catch it. Along the way we want to minimize losses from trying to catch the breakouts.

MTF Stochastics trades the "norm" the area from "20-80"...this is the most dependable trading...this is what we trade when there are no breakouts.

If you like, we are now trading the entire stochastic scale in a manner designed to make pips However the rules change when we get above 76.4 and below 23.6 when the fibs are at their extreme with the stochastics.

Remember that the fib scale is a representation of the stochastic scale....except that the fib scale is helping us measure price movement and the stochastic scale is helping us measure momentum in a direction of movement.

I haven't gone into the topic of the fib scale between 23.6 and 76.4...but a brief glance will tell you that most of the movement is in this range similar to stochastics. Like stochastics there are reliable price moves here.

MTF Stochastics is for trading 20-80 on stochastics. MTF Fib Breakout is for trading the above "80" and below "20" extreme.

So yes, Dr. Elder is right but only in a limited and basic way with regards to stochastics and I'm sure that his reasoning was to keep people out of trouble....I support the same rule in MTF stochastics because you simply cannot enter every trade above 80 or below 20 without a whole lot of grief following you.....we need to aim for the best possible timing to grab pips in the extreme.
  • #109
  • May 22, 2007 7:31am May 22, 2007 7:31am
Looks like we should be in a trade Long GBPJPY based on the looks of the charts. 14.3.3 and 5.3.3 crosed above 76.4% on H1 and M30. Price closed above 100% Fib level.

TimeFreedom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_fib_breakout_05-23-07_01.png Size: 17 KB
  • #110
  • May 22, 2007 7:44am May 22, 2007 7:44am
Harmony, the universe is all about harmony...planets are in harmony with the sun, flowers in harmony with bees...just imagine if bees horded the pollen!

Anyways, for purposes of naming a methodology I call this "Harmonic Stochastics" and it should answer a few questions about inner fib levels.

Spud's Harmonic Stochastics

As mentioned, the fib levels are a representation of the stochastic levels. This is why I emphasized placing the 0 Fib at the bottom and the 100 Fib at the top...so it looks like the stochastic scale.

Trading MTF stochastics usually has the huge pitfall of entering too early...because stochastics are by nature an early warning system...price and stochastics work in harmony.

So, what if we create a pseudo stochastic indicator with price and fib levels?

Add 2 MA's to your price chart:

EMA 3 and EMA 6

These represent 30 minutes (3) and 60 minutes (6)....harmony of numbers.
(you can play with MA values, but I like 3 and 6 because they make sense in an MTF setting...you just don't want them too large or they become meaningless)

The EMA 3 represents the 5,3,3 stochastic and the EMA 6 the 14,3,3 stochastic. On price and the fib levels they behave just like MTF stochastics and all the MTF stochastic rules follow. However, now we have the power of MTF stochastics on price and momentum...(evil laugh).

Alrighty let us look at the chart below. It is the 1H chart with the Fib line drawn from lo to high on May 16th 2007. So we are looking at May 17th as our trading day.

Notice anything harmonic? Like how the stochastic moves from 23 to 76 and the price moves from 23 to 76?

Notice something else? Notice how the stochastic moves first? ---ahhh no wonder we are always early with MTF stochastics!

If you read my MTF journal this is the 80/20 rule in true harmony. How can we go wrong with Fib numbers and stochastics?
Attached Image
  • #111
  • May 22, 2007 7:46am May 22, 2007 7:46am
The chart below is May 18th. Same thing. May 21st no trades, no signals (so no chart)
Attached Image
  • #112
  • May 22, 2007 7:50am May 22, 2007 7:50am
Quoting TimeFreedom
Looks like we should be in a trade Long GBPJPY based on the looks of the charts. 14.3.3 and 5.3.3 crosed above 76.4% on H1 and M30. Price closed above 100% Fib level.

TimeFreedom
My chart is a little different with no closes:
Attached Image
  • #113
  • May 22, 2007 8:01am May 22, 2007 8:01am
Hi Spudfyre
Ih your opinion is it better to hand draw the fibs than use the indicator?
Because the indicator automatically draws the day before and there was no trade yesterday.
Senbanda
  • #114
  • May 22, 2007 8:06am May 22, 2007 8:06am
Quoting senbanda
Hi Spudfyre
Ih your opinion is it better to hand draw the fibs than use the indicator?
Because the indicator automatically draws the day before and there was no trade yesterday.
Senbanda
Personally, I hand draw everything and use each time chart as it is more accurate in my opinion...tedious but better.
  • #115
  • May 22, 2007 8:12am May 22, 2007 8:12am
A little discretionary but if you were in it short, you'd have a good idea what to do.
Attached Image
  • #116
  • May 22, 2007 8:27am May 22, 2007 8:27am
Looks like you could have doubled up your trades on that one. Excellent opportunity to get in at the near bounce off the 0.00 fibs level on price with both 30/60 stochs breaking through the 23 level north. Then enter another trade as fib hits through 100 price level and stoch through the 76 level....piptastic!!



Quoting TimeFreedom
Looks like we should be in a trade Long GBPJPY based on the looks of the charts. 14.3.3 and 5.3.3 crosed above 76.4% on H1 and M30. Price closed above 100% Fib level.

PiprPro. Would you have targeted 123.6 with your method??




TimeFreedom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #117
  • May 22, 2007 12:31pm May 22, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting Spudfyre
A little discretionary but if you were in it short, you'd have a good idea what to do.

Hi Spud, I have a dear friend that cannot clear her trades through the bank due to asset minimums. Which retail broker do you recommend? I have seen negative reviews on many of them. Thanks in advance, PiPr Pro
  • #118
  • May 22, 2007 1:17pm May 22, 2007 1:17pm
Quoting PiPr Pro
Hi Spud, I have a dear friend that cannot clear her trades through the bank due to asset minimums. Which retail broker do you recommend? I have seen negative reviews on many of them. Thanks in advance, PiPr Pro
I can't make recommendations, but I can tell you who I use and my experience. I use FXCM and Man Financial which just moved me to FXCM UK due to Canadian margin rules.

Although I have read lots of negative things about FXCM, I have never experienced anything bad and their service has been outstanding. FXCM UK is new to me, so will have to see but Man Financial was very good to me too.

I have had no issues with either broker...other than technical about twice a year...but they have honoured and covered losses from trades due to those difficulties on a voluntary basis without me having to call them on it.
  • #119
  • May 22, 2007 2:13pm May 22, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting Spudfyre
I can't make recommendations, but I can tell you who I use and my experience. I use FXCM and Man Financial which just moved me to FXCM UK due to Canadian margin rules.

Although I have read lots of negative things about FXCM, I have never experienced anything bad and their service has been outstanding. FXCM UK is new to me, so will have to see but Man Financial was very good to me too.

I have had no issues with either broker...other than technical about twice a year...but they have honoured and covered losses from trades due to those difficulties on a voluntary basis without me having to call them on it.
Thank you and understood. I previously utilized GFT for some monies outside work and only had 1 (maybe 2) issues with them during very volatile time frames (i.e. - more my fault than theirs). 99% of the time they were consistent. But, the Introducing Broker spread increase (8 pips G-yen) can raise the spread too high for someone trying to take say 10 to 15 pips as I am teaching my friend until she has more experience. Thanks
  • #120
  • May 22, 2007 7:18pm May 22, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting banzai
Version 1.3: MTF (Multi Time Frame)

This time I go MTF. In addition, I added some dots if Stoch (14,3,3) crosses over 23.6% or 76.4%. Only Stoch (14,3,3). You can turn the dots drawing on or off. Attach is a template too.

http://img77.imageshack.us/img77/117...222007ary2.gif
Very nice template, but when I try to turn off fibs on higher time frames it resets. Is there a way to make it stick?

thanks,
Brett
1 trader viewing now