USD/JPY Discussion | Page 4343 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #86,841
  • Jun 16, 2023 5:57pm Jun 16, 2023 5:57pm
Quoting moondoggie
USDJPY has thrown me into an existential crisis about my ability as a trader. If one follows my posts, I've had a fairly decent start to my trading career, reaching a +100% within my first year trading. I fear now that this may be beginner's luck, because none of my analytical methods seem to be making sense of this pair. The pair has been strongly bullish for the past 3 months, with March giving me the biggest bearish fakeout of my new trading career. I've been misinterpreting the chart since then, banking on the BOJ to change its YCC policies...
Totally trading like Retail traders

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-06-17_8-41-35.jpg Size: 130 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #86,842
  • Jun 17, 2023 12:00am Jun 17, 2023 12:00am
Quoting tiborf71
Next week, on Monday, I will probably start the week with shorts.
If all central banks are hawkish and boj is dovish so why to short buy everything against yen i think we still are in the beginning this time jpy will cross the 155
  • #86,843
  • Jun 17, 2023 12:18am Jun 17, 2023 12:18am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Totally trading like Retail traders {image}
Respectfully, I disagree with putting any meaning behind retail sentiment. I think these charts are anecdotal at best.

I see a few of problems with sentiment charts.

1. These numbers only represent open positions at the end of the day. These charts aren't going to show how many longs and shorts that were opened and closed intraday. Most if not all retail who open a trade in the right direction on a day that runs 150%+ ADR aren't going to hold it over night.

2. We don't know how old those positions are. Most of these positions on JPY crosses could/probably were opened last week, so essentially retail sentiment charts are showing data that is weeks/months old.

3. Data for thinly traded pairs are easily manipulated. Take for example of CHFJPY, on the FF trades tab CHFJPY shows 23 TEs trading the pair, 1 trader with 10 TEs could easily shift the numbers in the opposite direction.

I think retail sentiment charts are great at showing that retail traders hold on to losing positions for waaaay too long and cut their wins way too soon. Honestly if you want to trade against retail follow the old trade axiom: cut your losses short and let your winners run long.
  • #86,844
  • Jun 17, 2023 3:21am Jun 17, 2023 3:21am
Quoting Hassa9
{quote} If all central banks are hawkish and boj is dovish so why to short buy everything against yen i think we still are in the beginning this time jpy will cross the 155
my analysis shows that this pair should decline.
at worst, I expect only a southerly correction before the direction can go anywhere.
H1.
  • #86,845
  • Jun 17, 2023 3:59am Jun 17, 2023 3:59am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Complicated? You don't trade on fundamentals, you only need to be aware of them, analyze the price action taking those conditions into consideration. Okay, just reduce to it to the often-told driver of the FX market - Interest Rates And the Retail Sentiment, also often told to be wrong, do the opposite. {image}
if it works for you, great.
I trade in H1, fundamentals don't really matter to me. Of course I'll keep an eye out for bigger news.
good luck.
  • #86,846
  • Jun 17, 2023 9:13am Jun 17, 2023 9:13am
Quoting Hassa9
{quote} If all central banks are hawkish and boj is dovish so why to short buy everything against yen i think we still are in the beginning this time jpy will cross the 155
Because it has been so for a while now, and the early part of the week is usually good for some profit taking.. in my opinion
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,847
  • Jun 18, 2023 1:03pm Jun 18, 2023 1:03pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Because it has been so for a while now, and the early part of the week is usually good for some profit taking.. in my opinion
profit always comes in handy. I scalped this pair a few times this week. It went quite well. Now I am counting on a southward correction, I hope it will come true.
  • #86,848
  • Jun 18, 2023 3:00pm Jun 18, 2023 3:00pm
USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is in a bullish mode. Although we may still see a further northward move, we cannot rule out a bearish correction as price action tackles the upper part of the 140.550/142.200 horizontal resistance zone (blue) seen on the weekly time frame.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 12 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #86,849
  • Jun 18, 2023 3:12pm Jun 18, 2023 3:12pm
Quoting KeenPips
USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is in a bullish mode. Although we may still see a further northward move, we cannot rule out a bearish correction as price action tackles the upper part of the 140.550/142.200 horizontal resistance zone (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {image}
hello,
so what you suggested, do you think it will fall after this
  • #86,850
  • Jun 18, 2023 4:47pm Jun 18, 2023 4:47pm
Quoting tiborf71
Next week, on Monday, I will probably start the week with shorts.
M definitely sticking with d bulls for now..

This week, U expect the currency to Range with more bullish swings though...

Perfect to throw in some EA..
  • #86,851
  • Jun 18, 2023 4:49pm Jun 18, 2023 4:49pm
Quoting nomi00001
{quote} hello, so what you suggested, do you think it will fall after this
He is clearly saying d pair us at a very strong resistance zone though d bullish sentiment remains.

So expect correction
  • #86,852
  • Jun 19, 2023 3:49am Jun 19, 2023 3:49am
short term uj view

Attached Image
ma ma make me happy
  • #86,853
  • Jun 19, 2023 3:59am Jun 19, 2023 3:59am
we guessed right, the bear correction happened in the morning. after that, the price went north, as a result of which another bearish correction is now expected.
H1.
maybe i'm wrong.
  • #86,854
  • Jun 19, 2023 4:09am Jun 19, 2023 4:09am
Quoting hanzohas
short term uj view {image}
sl

will keep following
ma ma make me happy
  • #86,855
  • Jun 19, 2023 4:19am Jun 19, 2023 4:19am
Giving another try. On slightly bigger TF, aiming for around wave 2 area. Expecting intermediary support on triangle lower line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 6 KB
ma ma make me happy
  • #86,856
  • Jun 19, 2023 6:55am Jun 19, 2023 6:55am
Quoting hanzohas
Giving another try. On slightly bigger TF, aiming for around wave 2 area. Expecting intermediary support on triangle lower line. {image}
THis looks gud, totally agree with this...
Hoping the Market doesn't fukkk us up
  • #86,857
  • Jun 19, 2023 7:42am Jun 19, 2023 7:42am
Quoting tiborf71
we guessed right, the bear correction happened in the morning. after that, the price went north, as a result of which another bearish correction is now expected. H1. maybe i'm wrong.
update.
the correction option has failed, so the exchange rate can go in any direction again.
H1.
  • #86,858
  • Jun 19, 2023 9:36am Jun 19, 2023 9:36am
I traded GBPJPY almost every day last week as it featured on my strength vs weakness tables (something I've built to tell me what's moving in the FX space).

I was aiming to trade support at 174.50 and 175.00. I got it about right and price rallied over 700+ pips to the highs of 182.00.

My thinking was and is that, fundamentally, BoE Gov Bailey stated that interest rates could reach as high as 5.75%. Rates currently stand at 4.50% and the market bought into the comments and is now pricing in significant rate rises from the BoE.

My weekly chart shows price is trading above previous resistance which was formed by the lows on 13th September 2015 at 180.75. This level could act as support for getting long in this market again.

The next level of resistance on my weekly chart is up at 188.00, which was a right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.
I'm thinking if this sentiment continues we could see GBPJPY trade another 700-800 pips higher.

On my hourly chart price formed a high at the 180.75 resistance, this week this could be used as support/entry as it holds confluence with a 50 moving average and a trend line.

We'll see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.png Size: 27 KB
  • #86,859
  • Jun 19, 2023 10:36am Jun 19, 2023 10:36am
Quoting Chas-Clifton
I traded GBPJPY almost every day last week as it featured on my strength vs weakness tables (something I've built to tell me what's moving in the FX space). I was aiming to trade support at 174.50 and 175.00. I got it about right and price rallied over 700+ pips to the highs of 182.00. My thinking was and is that, fundamentally, BoE Gov Bailey stated that interest rates could reach as high as 5.75%. Rates currently stand at 4.50% and the market bought into the comments and is now pricing in significant rate rises from the BoE. My weekly chart shows...
although I am a scalper and I trade on a completely different basis, the situation of gbp/jpy is also an important detail for me, among other things, this pair is also part of the puzzle to find out what the intention of usd/jpy . your analysis seems logical, I see you combine technical and fundamental analysis, which can bring good results if done well.
good luck.
  • #86,860
  • Jun 19, 2023 12:48pm Jun 19, 2023 12:48pm
EUR/JPY.
I can see that the balance has been upset.

sell. 154,955
SL. 155,400
tp. open
62 traders viewing now