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Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System

  • #41
  • May 18, 2007 8:30am May 18, 2007 8:30am
Quoting Rosco_P
Quick question, in my MT4 version I have Low/High and Close/Close as options in my parameters settings. I noticed in your first post that you stated you use High/Low, is this correct and if so do I need to acquire another SO to use?
My mistake...Low/High is the proper term. Doesn't matter...it is just calculating of the highs and lows and not the closes.
  • #42
  • May 18, 2007 8:34am May 18, 2007 8:34am
Quoting banzai
See post #26:



In version v. 1.1, I was able to combine the 2 stochs into 1 indicator. So for the new alerts, if both stochs cross over level 80, then we'll have a Buy alert. And vice versa for level 20.

Download v. 1.1 below:
Thanks banzai! Now I am going to keep you real busy with indicators from all this data coming in
  • #43
  • May 18, 2007 8:38am May 18, 2007 8:38am
Quoting ssotiro
First of all, thaks again Spudfyre for yet another great system.


I have been following yours and TEB's thread on MTF trading, which now are the backbone of my trading. As far as this one goes, I only have one question:
Do we enter as price breaks the barrier, or wait for the candle to close and enter at the open of the next?
For hard rules..best to trade after the close and on the open of the next candle...then you have no fudge factors in the stochastics or fib levels. There is such a large margin for error here on entry and exit that I would just stick to the hard rules and forget trying to grab an extra 20 pips by anticipation...but that's easier said than done for us trader types.
  • #44
  • May 18, 2007 8:39am May 18, 2007 8:39am
That's what I thought. Will keep you posted on how it goes.
  • #45
  • May 18, 2007 9:01am May 18, 2007 9:01am
March 15 2007, the chart below shows the "typical" failure...this by the way was the first failure in March 2007.

The entry follows the simple rules of a Break at 0 and the stochs below 23.6. However, the 14,3,3 stochs on the hour rise above 23.6 and we drop about 50 pips.

Right after that there is an entry for a 200 pip gain....so the failure is pretty short lived....about 3 hours of crying in all....then back to happy mode.

These are what most failure will resemble....whipsaws. They happen and that's the nature of having hard rules. However these failures are not common and amount to small fractions of the gains.

Your losses are only as far as the 14,3,3 1H stochastic takes you....let it be your guide to exiting trades good and bad.
Attached Image
  • #46
  • May 18, 2007 9:02am May 18, 2007 9:02am
Quoting PiPr Pro
here were my setups last nite - can't wait to study Spud's new info !!
Great information Pipr! We all have lots of studying to do now Thank you for your input and sharing your strategies.
  • #47
  • May 18, 2007 9:17am May 18, 2007 9:17am
Quoting Rosco_P
Quick question, in my MT4 version I have Low/High and Close/Close as options in my parameters settings. I noticed in your first post that you stated you use High/Low, is this correct and if so do I need to acquire another SO to use?

Rosco,
Nice car.

Don't know if this might help. Here's a basic Stoch indie. If you want it in the same window as the other Stoch just drag it to the window and then adjust your settings. (if you knew already, pardon.)

KudzuFX
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Stochastic.mq4   4 KB | 970 downloads
  • #48
  • Edited 10:03am May 18, 2007 9:37am | Edited 10:03am
From here on I'll be posting daily events forwards. There will be more things discussed as we go because I believe it is the only way to show what to look for as we advance.

So here is today's chart. On the chat last night I entered GJ short at 239.54.
I exited at 238.34 for a net of 112 pips after spread. I exited on the 14,3,3 stoch coming up past 23.6.

On the earlier short trade, I entered because the price moved from 100 to 76.4 on the fib. When price moves 2 levels on the fib it is common for the price to continue in that direction (123.6 to 76.4)....I don't use this as a hard and fast rule but it is a check mark towards entry.

The 1H stochs were together at 50 and moving down together after a peak. The fact that they are together is a check mark, the fact that they are at 50 or below is a check mark and the fact that there stochs are moving from a peak is a check mark. So now have 4 reason to enter.

The 30M stochs are much easier as they crossed from 76.4 so taking a ride to 23.6 on those is a strong compulsion to enter the trade with the 1H stochs headed down.

The break at 0 is a sigh of relieve and since stochs are breaking below 23.6 all that is left to do is wait for the 14,3,3 to rise above 23.6 and count the pips.


Right now there is no trade...stochs are too low for any clear indication price will continue to rise. Being Friday and later in the morning, I won't enter any more trades as I don't like to get stuck on weekend carries.

Arguably and I forgot to mention that you could trade the long from when both stochs crossed the 23.6....my decision in not doing so was simply because I was asleep
Attached Image
  • #49
  • Edited 12:38pm May 18, 2007 12:22pm | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting banzai
See post #26:



In version v. 1.1, I was able to combine the 2 stochs into 1 indicator. So for the new alerts, if both stochs cross over level 80, then we'll have a Buy alert. And vice versa for level 20.

Download v. 1.1 below:
Thanks Spud for your continuing efforts,
everyone for very actively contributing
and Banzai for the very nice indicator!

The elasticity concept ,that Mr. Spud mentions on post #6, is very interesting and obvious with this Stoch setup. Any thoughts on this as a filter or leading indication, anyone?

I'm looking forward to working on this thread over the weekend!

Thanks again, everyone.

FXS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: elec.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #50
  • May 18, 2007 12:51pm May 18, 2007 12:51pm
SpudFyre,

What was the system basis of the 239.54 short on 5/18/07? As I understand the system, I would have gone long on the break of the previous days high with confirming stochastics.
  • #51
  • May 18, 2007 12:52pm May 18, 2007 12:52pm
A couple of questions for anyone who knows and is willing to explain:

1. How do you line up the time periods between the 1H and the 30M charts (one on top of the other with the day period indicators lining up)? My 30M day period is twice the width of the 1H day period because of the double number of candles.

2. How do you get rid of the default 80 and 20 lines on the stochs?

Thank you,

Fish
  • #52
  • May 18, 2007 1:28pm May 18, 2007 1:28pm
Right click on chart-choose indicators from list-find stoc or fib break out then highlight-choose edit then levels tab and you can change 80-20 or add lines there...it appears not all questions will be answered...thats life
  • #53
  • May 18, 2007 2:51pm May 18, 2007 2:51pm
Quoting fishhunter
A couple of questions for anyone who knows and is willing to explain:

1. How do you line up the time periods between the 1H and the 30M charts (one on top of the other with the day period indicators lining up)? My 30M day period is twice the width of the 1H day period because of the double number of candles.


Fish
Fish,

You can get your time periods to line up several ways . . . use the +/- magnifying glass to zoom in or out, or you can just change the size of the 30M window.
  • #54
  • May 18, 2007 3:12pm May 18, 2007 3:12pm
Jake and Tony:

Questions answered. Your suggestions worked. Thank you.
  • #55
  • May 18, 2007 7:51pm May 18, 2007 7:51pm
Quote

Rosco,
Nice car.

Don't know if this might help. Here's a basic Stoch indie. If you want it in the same window as the other Stoch just drag it to the window and then adjust your settings. (if you knew already, pardon.)

Kudzu,


Thanks, we like to car here in Kentucky and the girl is quite cute too!!

Appreciate the indicator.
  • #56
  • Edited 4:54pm May 19, 2007 10:54am | Edited 4:54pm
What an interesting approach, Spud! Attached is an indicator to draw the fibs both above and below based on the previous day high/low. My broker shows the last 2 hours of Sunday so the indicator is coded to use Friday high/low if today is Monday. It may barf when Monday is a market holiday (as it was this year on Christmas and New Years) but I'll cross that bridge when I get there.

If I get time, I'll add the actual prices to the levels and possibly combine Sunday data with Friday just in case a new high/low is created on Sunday.

Feel free to modify/improve this - if you do so, please share...

Lou G
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #SpudFibo.mq4   3 KB | 1,340 downloads
Old Benjamin was right
  • #57
  • May 19, 2007 11:34am May 19, 2007 11:34am
I realized after posting that the Fibo indicator (post#56) would not function correctly on the M30 timeframe - it's fixed now (I think).
Old Benjamin was right
  • #58
  • May 19, 2007 11:45am May 19, 2007 11:45am
Spud, in a case such as that shown in this chart, is a re-entry called for?

Thanks,
Lou G
Attached Image
Old Benjamin was right
  • #59
  • May 19, 2007 12:49pm May 19, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting Lou G
Spud, in a case such as that shown in this chart, is a re-entry called for?

Thanks,
Lou G

Need a few things:

a 76.4 fib line you'll want to see that crossed
The stochastic 80 level changed to 76.4
The stochastic 20 level changed to 23.6
30M stochastics

If the price closes above the 76.4 fib line AND
the 1H stochastics and the 30M stochastics (all) cross 23.6...then you have a long
  • #60
  • Edited 5:09pm May 19, 2007 4:10pm | Edited 5:09pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Need a few things:

a 76.4 fib line you'll want to see that crossed
The stochastic 80 level changed to 76.4
The stochastic 20 level changed to 23.6
30M stochastics

If the price closes above the 76.4 fib line AND
the 1H stochastics and the 30M stochastics (all) cross 23.6...then you have a long
I'm sorry - I asked that question in a confusing way. The chart posted shows the fibs drawn below the previous day low. The initial entry is at 0600 hours when price falls below the previous low. After a few hours the stochs begin to rise through 23.6 ending the trade with a modest profit. Then the stochs fall again (at about 1300 hours) and my question is: would you re-enter short at this point?

Sorry for the confusion.
Old Benjamin was right
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