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M1 Countertrend Scalping Strategy

  • #5,941
  • May 30, 2023 10:33pm May 30, 2023 10:33pm
Whew. Today is a lesson for sure so far LOL. Buckle up. This might be a long one or two posts.

2nd setup of the day I took a sell on USDCAS:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-05-30 172517_03a USDCAD 1st sell entry.png Size: 69 KB


I should have stayed out for 2 reasons. One obvious the other not (to me at the time at least). To me the obvious was the spread to distance to EMAs. I shouldn't ever take trades when the distance to the 20 EMA is less than the spread from entry point. The second is it was a huge news day for CAD. I really need adjust for the time difference in MT4 and the FF news indi.

3rd setup took a sell on USDJPY as it hard rejected an old supply/resistance box and the 200 EMA:
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2nd sell on USDCAD:
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USDJPY quickly past its 50 EMA and I exited for a nice 5.5 pips:
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-05-30 173340_04 USDJPY exit past 50 ema 5.5 pips.png Size: 72 KB


I zoomed out to see where I thought USDCAD might go. Spoiler alert, I was way wrong! Again, wasn't aware (not an excuse) of big news day:
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4th setup was on GBPUSD where i took a sell order:
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Took the 3rd sell on USDCAD when price was in the middle of the previous supply box, according to my theory LOL:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-05-30 181631_03c USDCAD 3rd sell entry.png Size: 80 KB


Exited GBPUSD on a 50 EMA touch for 5.4 pips:
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-05-30 183118_05 GBPUSD exit 50 EMA 5.4 pips.png Size: 72 KB


USDCAD really started to move, So while staying calm I made a 4th sell entry:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-05-30 183133_03d USDCAD 4th sell enntry.png Size: 79 KB


And then REALLY move! Now i went and looked on trading view the news icons at the bottom on the chart. WHOOOPS! Big news day for Canad. 5th sell entry was placed. Here is the current situation a little after the entry. 6th entry was on the 4th red candle after the upthrust:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-05-30 202919_03 USDCAD current situation.png Size: 79 KB


To be continued...
  • #5,942
  • May 31, 2023 12:42am May 31, 2023 12:42am
Quoting Amiraven
{image}
a brief commentary would assist us and yourself understand your thought process even though the trade does speak for itself amiraven - perfectly executed with well spaced orders, picking the top and exiting with skill and precision, superb!
every minute matters!
  • #5,943
  • May 31, 2023 12:51am May 31, 2023 12:51am
Quoting Donny3rd
And then REALLY move! Now i went and looked on trading view the news icons at the bottom on the chart. WHOOOPS! Big news day for Canad. 5th sell entry was placed. Here is the current situation a little after the entry. 6th entry was on the 4th red candle after the upthrust: {image} To be continued...
as always, enjoy the ride!

hopefully it has topped out and starting its return to the support levels once it breaks back below ema200 to get you back into profit...

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you can just check this sites homepage or market page for upcoming news events in case your not aware...

https://www.forexfactory.com/market/usdcad
every minute matters!
  • #5,944
  • May 31, 2023 1:01am May 31, 2023 1:01am
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people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #5,945
  • May 31, 2023 1:29am May 31, 2023 1:29am
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hope that helps mate
all most every day i play this game
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #5,946
  • Edited 1:55am May 31, 2023 1:32am | Edited 1:55am
Hello

First of all I want to thank Abade for creating the thread and Cpfleger for his great contribution as well as the rest of the active participants.

I have been testing the system for a while, I have adapted the original system to myself, I have added some indicator that I feel comfortable with and the results are fascinating, I have been trading since 2014 and I have finally been able to win for two weeks straight every day positively with this system, however almost 90% of the days I have to face one or two strong trends that put my account at risk and I don't like that but I don't know how to fix it because without setting a stop loss I feel like I lose too many times.

I think the key is to open fair operations but averaging in key areas, but of course, it is one thing to say it and another to do it with real money hehe
  • #5,947
  • May 31, 2023 4:11am May 31, 2023 4:11am
Quoting niks
{quote} as always, enjoy the ride! hopefully it has topped out and starting its return to the support levels once it breaks back below ema200 to get you back into profit...
For sure. I keep hearing The Smashing Pumpkin lyrics "Wanna go for a ride?" LOL. Thanks for the link too.

Here's an update as of 2:05am AZ time:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-05-31 020516_03 USDCAD 205am update.png Size: 85 KB


Also, keep in mind my max leverage is only 50:1. Anyway, I'm headed to bed. Risky evening lol. Been through this when I was testing raw KoF without cpflegers indicators because I initially didn't want to go from Tradingview to MT4 lol. I just couldn't find matching indicators over there. Will be fun to check this in the morning. Good night everyone.
  • #5,948
  • Edited 6:31am May 31, 2023 6:13am | Edited 6:31am
Quoting niks
{quote} a brief commentary would assist us and yourself understand your thought process even though the trade does speak for itself amiraven - perfectly executed with well spaced orders, picking the top and exiting with skill and precision, superb!
Thank you Niks ,
Trying different types of bands... I was hoping to catch the right moment whenever price crosses or touches the Bands as entry and exit points. However this method has not been proven to be profitable yet . I guess we can use any logic to execute a trade ,but turning that execution into a profitable trade is completely a different story! the hardest part is to have patience that I have learned from your prefect trades .
I haven't come this far to only come this far !
  • #5,949
  • Edited 8:53am May 31, 2023 6:25am | Edited 8:53am
Quoting Donny3rd
{quote} Also, keep in mind my max leverage is only 50:1. Anyway, I'm headed to bed. Risky evening lol. Been through this when I was testing raw KoF without cpflegers indicators because I initially didn't want to go from Tradingview to MT4 lol. I just couldn't find matching indicators over there. Will be fun to check this in the morning. Good night everyone.
all trades are risky donny, here you will learn the importance of money management and protecting margin...

your lot size relative to account size is double the recommended amount, that is not trading lightly, that is akin to flipping an account in short time and will be difficult to manage while you are learning, make the most of this lesson and hope you get out unscathed

also, aussi has highlighted to me at least the importance of swaps, i will manage negative swap trades more aggressively from now on, you are now in a negative swap trade which also doesn't help

if your game and it continues going up, just start scalping longs until it reverses! if you can that is with fifo regulation, it will help protect your margin

and i just realised i think you mentioned you cant set TP's - that'll make it difficult to sleep! good luck mate!

at least its heading in the right direction for now, a nice break of ema200 on the 5M might do it!
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and it has, good news up, bad news down!, i hope your awake...
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every minute matters!
  • #5,950
  • May 31, 2023 7:39am May 31, 2023 7:39am
Quoting Amiraven
{quote} Thank you Niks , Trying different types of bands... I was hoping to catch the right moment whenever price crosses or touches the Bands as entry and exit points. However this method has not been proven to be profitable yet . I guess we can use any logic to execute a trade ,but turning that execution into a profitable trade is completely a different story! the hardest part is to have patience that I have learned from your prefect trades .
always a pleasure amiraven and thanks for the kind words, it really is your hard work paying off, my trades are far from perfect but we try! yes, use whatever guides work for you best, you can only trade what you see... hope you have many more great trades ahead of you...
every minute matters!
  • #5,951
  • Edited 8:06am May 31, 2023 7:56am | Edited 8:06am
I would like to extend my thanks to all the contributors to this thread.

I am using this cost avg system and accumulating profits or atleast I am now more confident as I dont have to worry about the precise entry point. I am sticking to the rules as in always remain small with the lot size and never get greedy. But I am still new to this sytem and I understand it's a matter of time that market tests my mentals. With that being said, I need experts guys like you:
- I always wait for a considerable distance between 9ema & 200ema before I execute my first small lot to this contrarian approach.

According to KOF, a logical way to add the next position is to wait for the 9ema line to reach the last order line. Thanks to him for the guidance. However, challenge comes as the trend keeps going aginst me. I don't know what will be the optimal lot multiplier, or to be precise I don't know if my next position size would be 0.01/0.02 or 0.04. I know I will have to remain small with the next lot size but I also want to know more about the next logical lot multiplier so when the trend retraces and touches the target 9ema/50ema I want to remain a winner.

My question to the experts, is there any way to know what will be the next lot size so when it hits 9ema/50ema it will be overall profitable? as you know if when trades doesn't feel like hitting the 9ema let alone 50, that's when it starts to become more and more important how we decide about the lot multiplier.

encryptedehs
Protect your capital
  • #5,952
  • May 31, 2023 8:23am May 31, 2023 8:23am
Quoting encryptedehs
...that's when it starts to become more and more important how we decide about the lot multiplier.
i am far from being an expert but from my experience lot size is fixed - KoF will only vary his lot size when he runs out of margin of trying to flip an account, it is not standard practice, so there is no "lot multiplier" to consider

what you are facing is the challenge of developing your risk and money management plan for this strategy and you have to work very hard on that - you will face many failures while learning it, otherwise you will not learn it, best of luck to you encryptedehs!
every minute matters!
  • #5,953
  • May 31, 2023 8:42am May 31, 2023 8:42am
every order is fixed lot size, risk is managed by correct timing of entries and exits and money is managed with appropruate lot size relative to balance and leverage

there are no fixed rules for this - capital preservation is entirely each traders responsibility based on skill level and risk tolerance
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every minute matters!
  • #5,954
  • May 31, 2023 9:08am May 31, 2023 9:08am
Quoting niks
every order is fixed lot size, risk is managed by correct timing of entries and exits and money is managed with appropruate lot size relative to balance and leverage there are no fixed rules for this - capital preservation is entirely each traders responsibility based on skill level and risk tolerance {image}
Thank you for your quick response. Makes complete sense!

I see the logic - lot is fixed and to make profit one has to wait up until the price retraces to a profitable area.

I also read that on the other hand, Since price retraces 9ema/20ema more often on a 1-minute time frame, lot can be multiplied so you can book overall profit as soon as they hit let's say 20ema. This way one won't have to wait for price to reach 200ema for example. But this also means that if price doesn't touch 9ema/20ema for some time and trend is a strong one, It can lead to big draw-downs.

Cost avg methods doesn't require stop loss. Could you give me an idea on the cpfleger's screenprints - he seems to uses stop loss as I have learned by asking him the other day. His a different strategy made of RSI DIV, HA, ZIGZAG etc?

My heartfelt respect and love to you.

Encryptedehs
Protect your capital
  • #5,955
  • May 31, 2023 9:28am May 31, 2023 9:28am
Quoting encryptedehs
{quote} Thank you for your quick response. Makes complete sense! I see the logic - lot is fixed and to make profit one has to wait up until the price retraces to a profitable area. I also read that on the other hand, Since price retraces 9ema/20ema more often on a 1-minute time frame, lot can be multiplied so you can book overall profit as soon as they hit let's say 20ema. This way one won't have to wait for price to reach 200ema for example. But this also means that if price doesn't touch 9ema/20ema for some time and trend is a strong one, It can...
no problem, i have no advice on different strategies and you are correct about the dangers of multiplying lots, i would personally highly discourage it, however i will reiterate advice i gave earlier about using ema's as a guide to your target, not as your target for maximising profits... you will see a great example of this on the USDCAD snapshots i posted for donny above...
every minute matters!
  • #5,956
  • May 31, 2023 10:39am May 31, 2023 10:39am
Woke up randomly and went to check the chart. Here's what I saw:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2023-05-31 081627_03 USDCAD woke up to this.png Size: 84 KB


Looks great to me! I really wish I marked up a screen showing that I though it'd go back down to correct the news impulses of the previous day after getting to the previous high supply/resistance. But alas I didn't:
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I'm aware 0.02 lots is double the recommended amount. That happened by accident one day after I think my first averaging trade and I just never turned it back to 0.01. I'm also figuring that KoF is using and/or assuming everyone is leveraged at least 500:1. I'm 50:1 and figured leaving it at 0.02 should be ok. Even with 6 open positions on the pair, I only got to 30% of my hard mental SL (10%/ -$100 of account balance).

As much as I like the resulting pips, I do not like being in a trade for so long that I didn't plan to be. So, look at news! Look at swap/ema distance ratio. And now that I look more closely at the initial USDCAD entry, the first wickless red bar didn't spawn all the way under the LWMA. I'm just trying to see how and if I could of stayed out of this using rules to filtering out entering into these runners.

I was strangely calm sleeping btw. All comments, advice, things you noticed are welcome. Thanks. Oh, and I'm curious to know now if I could have indeed scalped up perhaps using 0.01 lots or 0.03, anything as a different lots order size to possible go around the FIFO limitations. I might make a second demo account just for ideas without caring about its balance or performance.

With the fun behind me and update post made, I'm gonna go back to bed for a couple. Thanks for watching! Thanks Niks for coaching!
  • #5,957
  • May 31, 2023 2:01pm May 31, 2023 2:01pm
An afternoon trade....
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  • #5,958
  • May 31, 2023 3:51pm May 31, 2023 3:51pm
Morning all (6.00am in Australia)... I've been following with interest and appreciation all the contributions to this thread, as well as watching all KOF's youtube videos and studying his trading style. I am learning a lot, specifically about price tendency to revert back to the mean from an extended deviation (think stretched rubber bands)... anyway I thought I'd share some observations I've made, excerpts from my journal...

Thoughts and observations resulting from watching KOF Youtube videos…

1. Never enter a reversal trade at the end of the 1st candle that moves away from EMA cluster.
2. When you see price a long way away from the EMA cluster, that’s when you enter reversal trade.
3. 200 & 50 EMAs are very important for polarity. These EMAs are your ultimate profit target, if market conditions allow for it. But the 9 & 20 can be useful for Momentum & trade entries.
4. That said, do not enter a trade where price and the 9 20 EMAs are inside the 50 & 200 EMAs (inside what I call the SQUEEZE ZONE).
5. KOF’s countertrend strategy relies on 1P spread or less. I don’t have that on any pair in Axitrader. On 8Cap – yes I do have.
6. Some of KOF’s entries were questionable (especially when he simultaneously entered buys & sells) and resulted in significant drawdowns. [Trading my way (from Nested Entries/Mantis Claws outwards, riding the expansions) for me, at least, is more consistent & reliable, and possibly less stressful.]
7. Larger moves occur with crosses EA EN GA GN. These can’t be entered with a 5P profit target!
8. KOF videos times of day – this is very important. Of the 33 videos I checked his starting times (see file photo, that includes all his longer videos, not his short self-promotional ones), by far the majority of them began between 17:00 and 18:00 MT4 time (near or after LDN close). The rest began between 13:00 and 14:00 MT4 time – after EUROPE/LDN peak hours have finished. The conclusion I make from this is that KOF avoids the more volatile commencement hours/'peak hours' of LO & NYO, where his strategy of entering reversal positions when price is a mere 5P away from the EMAs could go horribly wrong, given the usual price action of those hours.

He only trades during Consolidation/Distribution market phases, after LO and at the End of Day.

These are just some of my observations, entered into my personal trading journal. I think the most important takeaway for me is the times of day KOF trades/records his videos (I hope the pic comes out ok, doesn't look like you can see much of it, as I look at it while I write this post). Trading this strategy requires the markets to be in consolidation mode, distributing and/or accumulating orders, as opposed to profit-taking during expansionary phases, such as you find during 'peak hours' of LO, NYO, TO, etc. For me, I would be avoiding trading KOF-style during those peak hours unless market conditions clearly warranted it, but knowing that these times of day have the highest level of institutional involvement and therefore the highest VOL/liquidity and volatility, makes me wary of entering countertrend trades, unless it's clear that price has extended deep into discount or premium and is setting up for a reversal after a fakeout or a failout.

I hope you will accept my thoughts as positive to this thread, not negative. I am all about refining my trade entries to minimize risk, not make this tough profession even tougher.

I see that I have rambled for a long time, sorry about that.

Cheers
MantisClaw/sonicvista12
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We don't see things as they are - we see things as we are.
  • #5,959
  • May 31, 2023 3:55pm May 31, 2023 3:55pm
Quoting encryptedehs
{quote} I see the logic - lot is fixed and to make profit one has to wait up until the price retraces to a profitable area. I also read that on the other hand, Since price retraces 9ema/20ema more often on a 1-minute time frame, lot can be multiplied so you can book overall profit as soon as they hit let's say 20ema. This way one won't have to wait for price to reach 200ema for example. But this also means that if price doesn't touch 9ema/20ema for some time and trend is a strong one, It can lead to big draw-downs.
I know you're conversing with Niks, but another thing I notice him and KoF do is spread out their averaging. I started doing this too where the next entry is a bit farther than the last. Like an expanding fan if that makes sense. Let's say it goes 5 pips against you so you make a 2nd entry. Then the next entry may be 8-10 pips from that, and a 4th entry 12-15 pips. That way you are increasing profit when it reverses closer to your entry /break even point without increasing lot size while also moving that break even point farther away from the initial entry. It also let price move farther away without a clump of tightly packed "hopium" orders all going negative at a relatively close rate.



Quoting niks
{quote} aussi has highlighted to me at least the importance of swaps, i will manage negative swap trades more aggressively from now on, you are now in a negative swap trade which also doesn't help
Yes, I've seen Aussi highlighting that and it'd intrigued me. I'm intraday through and through but as you saw sometimes things go overnight. I'm trying to get me head around swap as I've never really dealt with or learned about it. I know it's interest on holding positions overnight, but I don't know how to tell if I'm in negative or positive swap or how to track it. Any help on that matter would be appreciative, even if it's just links or keywords to head me on the way to an insightful search.
  • #5,960
  • May 31, 2023 4:52pm May 31, 2023 4:52pm
Quoting sonicvista12
anyway I thought I'd share some observations I've made, excerpts from my journal... Thoughts and observations resulting from watching KOF Youtube videos…
Good morning and welcome. Thank you for sharing your notes! This is very insightful and appreciated (speaking for myself). I usually start trading around 200-300 MT4 time (4-5pm my time, Arizona, USA) and end 600-700 MT4 time (8-9pm my time) as that's just when I'm available to trade based on work and whatnot. I'm making it happen somewhat but it's a weird time that's usually really a slow/low volatility period. I'm also working on waiting till price is far enough from EMAs before entering. I'm very much like you in wanting to scrap quantity for quality to avoid drawdown and time in a trade.

I'm currently working nights 2pm-10pm (000-800 MT4) for another month with a lot of downtime at work, so that's where/when I'm doing this. Then I'm back to working mornings 7am-3pm (1700-100 MT4) with downtime but not nearly as much. I could trade for a month starting at 8am (1800 MT4 ), but when morning shift starts in July I'll be too busy at work to attend to trades, but I'll be home by my "normal" trading time of 4-5pm (600-700 MT4) so it could stay consistent to how I'm practicing now. It would/will be nice if/when I didn't/don't have a job and could choose to trade when I'd like. I'm not there yet. But it's the goal for sure.

I just found this time zone indicator for MT4 (will update with attachment soon) and will be giving it a spin. It shows your current time, then the current time in each sessions time zone, and your MT4 server's current time, while highlighting the open session(s). Might be helpful to other's as well.
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