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  • #173,001
  • May 29, 2023 3:20am May 29, 2023 3:20am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Its ok none knows the end result, it's knowing your system well and the skills trading it that make the difference
thats true, as per my system bull needs to defend 0710
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #173,002
  • May 29, 2023 3:33am May 29, 2023 3:33am
Can't break 745 will come back to test 700 - 686. I'm waiting to buy at the end of the day or short to 745 -760 ( I only day trade )
  • #173,003
  • May 29, 2023 3:46am May 29, 2023 3:46am
Quoting pedro319
It seems like a challenge of the lows is coming. My plan for this week is: If we break 1.07, I will be selling pullbacks targeting 1.0480, it is a similar trade to the ones from 1.0824, market is not giving enough retracement so I have to grab what I get, hence the short from 1.0724 with a 30 pip sl.
Weekly bearish divergence also point to 1.05.
I believe that even after agreement is done on debt ceiling, Usd demand will persist for a while longer.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #173,004
  • May 29, 2023 4:15am May 29, 2023 4:15am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Weekly bearish divergence also point to 1.05.
Yes, the overall picture has not changed although I anticipated a bounce at least to the top line of the channel (around 1.0752).
However, I am surprised it didn't even reach that -> only 1.0742. But we could see the 1.074xx tomorrow again. That would touch the down channel and a a good confirmation of the same.
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Anyhow, the debt circus is not over... yet. The deal is very weak and has drawn already heavy criticism form the house. Either Senate or House still can threw a spanner into the gearbox. That would rattle the markets a bit and we could see a 100+ pip move down. If not, we might juggle around the 1.07xx-10760 area for a few days.

But then... don't bet for a new 1.10xx!!! Right the day after the day the blind guy signed and stamped it the Treasury will start re-filling the TGA -> and that is $$$ positive! within a few days 10 different T-Bill issuances will take place. (for the ones interested -> https://home.treasury.gov/system/fil...n-Schedule.pdf )
In total, within the next 6-8 weeks 730 Billion $ will be drawn from the market. So the drop to the 1.05xx / lower edge of the channel is very likely.
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Sill holding my EUR sells and occasionally scalping some other stuff.
  • #173,005
  • May 29, 2023 4:23am May 29, 2023 4:23am
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  • #173,006
  • May 29, 2023 4:24am May 29, 2023 4:24am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Yes, the overall picture has not changed although I anticipated a bounce at least to the top line of the channel (around 1.0752). However, I am surprised it didn't even reach that -> only 1.0742. But we could see the 1.074xx tomorrow again. That would touch the down channel and a a good confirmation of the same. {image} Anyhow, the debt circus is not over... yet. The deal is very weak and has drawn already heavy criticism form the house. Either Senate or House still can threw a spanner into the gearbox. That would rattle the markets a bit...
On Friday market only managed to retrace to 1.0757, that was minimum target for my trade, then it came down for a new low.
There is still indecision and the daily candle says just that, however with the pa from Friday I am more inclined for a breakout of the lows.
In case we have a relief rally to 1.0830 let's say, it would be a great opportunity to short again and again targeting 1.05.
A lot of politics and financial engineering driving these moves as you explained so well.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #173,007
  • May 29, 2023 4:24am May 29, 2023 4:24am
The reason!!!
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  • #173,008
  • May 29, 2023 4:33am May 29, 2023 4:33am
Quoting andvk74
The reason!!! {image}
Makes perfect sense to me!
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #173,009
  • May 29, 2023 5:33am May 29, 2023 5:33am
Based on H1, I am marking 1.0724 area as nearest resistance..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #173,010
  • May 29, 2023 6:24am May 29, 2023 6:24am
This IDEA from last week is still VALID!
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  • #173,011
  • May 29, 2023 6:41am May 29, 2023 6:41am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} On Friday market only managed to retrace to 1.0757, that was minimum target for my trade, then it came down for a new low. There is still indecision and the daily candle says just that, however with the pa from Friday I am more inclined for a breakout of the lows. In case we have a relief rally to 1.0830 let's say, it would be a great opportunity to short again and again targeting 1.05. A lot of politics and financial engineering driving these moves as you explained so well.
Well, that with the TGA... I wold not call it financial engineering. Financial engineering... that is what the FED is doing, or is trying to do. That with the treasury is actually THE MARKET. If there is a massive buyer - irrespective if this are big pension funds, commercial commodity dealers, Treasury departments etc. and even a big herd of folks (like that with Gamestop) - price goes up. And if they pull out of the arena, price goes down.

That's the way it worked centuries ago... and so it will be in future.
  • #173,012
  • May 29, 2023 6:49am May 29, 2023 6:49am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Well, that with the TGA... I wold not call it financial engineering. Financial engineering... that is what the FED is doing, or is trying to do. That with the treasury is actually THE MARKET. If there is a massive buyer - irrespective if this are big pension funds, commercial commodity dealers, Treasury departments etc. and even a big herd of folks (like that with Gamestop) - price goes up. And if they pull out of the arena, price goes down. That's the way it worked centuries ago... and so it will be in future.
Still pretty much like that now, they call each other and enter at predefined price!
My job is trying to figure out where!
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #173,013
  • May 29, 2023 6:58am May 29, 2023 6:58am
I have only one word for this: Manipulation!
Keep trading and learning or keep learning and trading!
  • #173,014
  • May 29, 2023 7:09am May 29, 2023 7:09am
Quoting arthurbolbos
I have only one word for this: Manipulation!
MONEYpulation!!!
  • #173,015
  • May 29, 2023 7:13am May 29, 2023 7:13am
We could just tell all of these longs to go short on a break but it will work the other way round

Just watch your risk and follow two - three rules and you will go fine.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #173,016
  • May 29, 2023 7:15am May 29, 2023 7:15am
Quoting arthurbolbos
I have only one word for this: Manipulation!
A bit of that too, but don't get caught in negativity (this will affect your judgement), take advantage of the moves to the best of your abilities, someone else will get the stick!
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #173,017
  • Edited 7:33am May 29, 2023 7:16am | Edited 7:33am
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  • #173,018
  • May 29, 2023 7:24am May 29, 2023 7:24am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} A bit of that too, but don't get caught in negativity, take advantage of the moves to the best of your abilities, someone else will get the stick!
You're 100% right.
It's just the difference when the trend changes like going down the mountain, you know you fall and you get up, and the road goes on, but if you just fall of the cliff, you nearly don't get up, only with the parachute a.k.a. SL
Edit: I speak here for swing trading ( scalping & investing mode is not so affected )
Keep trading and learning or keep learning and trading!
  • #173,019
  • May 29, 2023 7:31am May 29, 2023 7:31am
Quoting arthurbolbos
{quote} You're 100% right. It's just the difference when the trend changes like going down the mountain, you know you fall and you get up, and the road goes on, but if you just fall of the cliff, you nearly don't get up, only with the parachute a.k.a. SL
Money management is your control over this game, unlike the casino (where the rules benefit the house) you have to set your own rules so that you don't fall that cliff.
I know it is easier said than done but I have no doubt that it does not matter how good your are with the technicals or fundamentals if you don't know how to manage and control risk.
Keeping drawdown under 5% at all times is a good start.
Practice will get you there!!.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #173,020
  • May 29, 2023 7:32am May 29, 2023 7:32am
You can also use the power of AI it's super easy!

https://forexclientsentiment.com/client-sentiment
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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