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Sedona- A system for inactive hours

  • #201
  • May 16, 2007 4:19pm May 16, 2007 4:19pm
Quoting stevegee58
Hey, cash is a position, right?
Once a good friend of mine told me: you should learn to make money by sometimes not to take any positions. You are absolutely right. We have to stick to our profits and never give them back to the market. That's the first periority
Making pips is easy, holding 'em is hard - Pipsopolis
  • #202
  • May 17, 2007 10:34am May 17, 2007 10:34am
It looks like the trades might setup as following:
SL=239.69
TP=239.16
Shorts at 239.51, 239.42, 239.33

I know this is 30 minutes early so we might have a no trade day.
Let see what we have in store for today.
  • #203
  • May 17, 2007 10:51am May 17, 2007 10:51am
I am thinking this might be a no trade day since the current price is near the high without being over bought. Does anyone agree?
  • #204
  • May 17, 2007 11:06am May 17, 2007 11:06am
I have started an extensive boring candle by candle backtest for GJ and I will post the results. I have focused on these three questions:
1- Is 20% a good S/L? As we had a couple of return in a matter of 1-3 pips over our S/L, I'd rather start using 25% in the backtest.
2- How much OB/OS sensitive to Hi and Lo in the system? Are they necessary or just a return is enough?
3- What happened if we let a free winning trade enters the active session? Does it brought back more profits?

Till now I'd rather use a 25% stop, enter half size when facing a non-correlating high and low with RSI zones (rather than not trading) and let the middle trade (10%) go to the active session (free of course) for the other end of the box.
I'll post the entire backtest as soon as I finish it.
Making pips is easy, holding 'em is hard - Pipsopolis
  • #205
  • May 17, 2007 11:16am May 17, 2007 11:16am
I hate getting stopped out of any trade when the price reaches my stoploss exactly. I am sure that I am not the only one this has happened to. So what I ahve done is add 5-7 pips to what I think my stop loss should be.

Looking at the 4H charts, the GBP/JPY has strong resistence at ~239.75. So in this case if you up you SL to 25%, I calculate that to about ~239.77.

This also look toppish to me, so I will enter at my above mentioned price but with a new SL at 239.77
  • #206
  • May 17, 2007 11:29am May 17, 2007 11:29am
Quoting Mojea
I am thinking this might be a no trade day since the current price is near the high without being over bought. Does anyone agree?
agree with u
  • #207
  • May 18, 2007 3:32pm May 18, 2007 3:32pm
This week was a so-so week. Up to now, we were 65% correct, average winner of 16 pips and loser of -23 pips and total profit of 37 pips.
Attached Image
Making pips is easy, holding 'em is hard - Pipsopolis
  • #208
  • May 26, 2007 4:10pm May 26, 2007 4:10pm
Is someone out there?
I thought that weekly results were to be posted by what I was told. I had stated in a PM that the site had suddenly become a barron wasteland of activity. I was then told that instead of more frequent posts we were trying weekly posts of results. The last posted was week of May 7th. I am not sure how this system can be profitable with such a large spread to chase as price slowly drifts back to 62EMA during inactive hours. By the time you have covered your spread (mine being either 8 or 9 pips) there are not many more pips to be had. Anyone else had this problem? Is that why this site appears to be abandoned? Otherwise I was interested in learning more about this methodology. It is challenging to try and learn a system when the only feedback you can get is a PM to the author of the system. Don't get me wrong I am very happy with the feedback I have received from PM's. Sometimes when something is in the process of being developed it helps to have all the feedback that existed on this thread prior to it going to sleep shortly before the final post for the week of May 7th.
Michael
  • #209
  • May 27, 2007 8:46am May 27, 2007 8:46am
Quoting mikebrewer5335
Is someone out there?
I thought that weekly results were to be posted by what I was told. I had stated in a PM that the site had suddenly become a barron wasteland of activity. I was then told that instead of more frequent posts we were trying weekly posts of results. The last posted was week of May 7th. I am not sure how this system can be profitable with such a large spread to chase as price slowly drifts back to 62EMA during inactive hours. By the time you have covered your spread (mine being either 8 or 9 pips) there are not many more pips to be had. Anyone else had this problem? Is that why this site appears to be abandoned? Otherwise I was interested in learning more about this methodology. It is challenging to try and learn a system when the only feedback you can get is a PM to the author of the system. Don't get me wrong I am very happy with the feedback I have received from PM's. Sometimes when something is in the process of being developed it helps to have all the feedback that existed on this thread prior to it going to sleep shortly before the final post for the week of May 7th.
Michael
Michael,
I stopped posting the results because now there is enough sources for anyone who wants to try the system or use it.
For spread, that's why I use three entries, the closer your entry is, the bigger lot size it has. So it might be possible to close one or two positions with loss but the biggest position size, compensate for the dollar value.
Besides, GJ was an example and it is absolutely possible to test the system for other pairs. Give it a try on cable, it has a low spread and see the results. My experiece shows there are less losers on cable.
Making pips is easy, holding 'em is hard - Pipsopolis
  • #210
  • Jun 1, 2007 11:36am Jun 1, 2007 11:36am
I have been following this strategy for the past few weeks and I am very happy with the results. I put together a stripped down version of this strategy in Tradestation. The back testing results were great. I only used 1 lots for the test with the assumption that most people don’t want to start trading a new strategy with a 3 lot risk. I still used the lowest/highest and 10/20 % levels. I will show an image to explain the entry process. For exits I use the 62 EMA and 1.00 stop loss. I did not use the RSI filter but I will get that set up next.

I back tested with all of the trade station data avaiable which goes back to oct/2002. This version was 76% profitable and...i will post the trade station report.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sedona01.jpg Size: 66 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip SedonaV1Results.zip   661 KB | 388 downloads
  • #211
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:05pm Jun 1, 2007 12:05pm
Quoting mikehabit
I have been following this strategy for the past few weeks and I am very happy with the results. I put together a stripped down version of this strategy in Tradestation. The back testing results were great. I only used 1 lots for the test with the assumption that most people don’t want to start trading a new strategy with a 3 lot risk. I still used the lowest/highest and 10/20 % levels. I will show an image to explain the entry process. For exits I use the 62 EMA and 1.00 stop loss. I did not use the RSI filter but I will get that set up next.

I back tested with all of the trade station data avaiable which goes back to oct/2002. This version was 76% profitable and...i will post the trade station report.
Great results.

I can't see your image well enough to tell exactly what you are doing.

Do you enter at the high/low?
Stop loss=1.00. What does that mean?
Thanks
  • #212
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:55pm Jun 1, 2007 12:55pm
I apologize for the bad image and not explaining the entry process very well.

Going long: Order entry starts at 11am cst.
Condition1 - If the market is above the (Low*.20%) then place 1 buy at (Low*.20%)
Condition2 - If the market is between (Low*.20) and the (low) then place buy market order at 11:30am cst.

For Short entry: Change (above) to (lower) and (low) to (high).

The 1.00 stop = 100 pips.
I am going to optimize the stop amount.

Note: the profits in the performance report are in Yen not US $$.
  • #213
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:07pm Jun 1, 2007 1:07pm
Mr billbss,
As near as I can tell you box in the active market session for the pairs. I am in California and if I do the gbp/jpy I need to create a box between 4PM pst and 9AM pst the next morning (iparamon worktime, works well, search this forum and find the indicator and download it to where you need it in your program files under your trading station usually under experts is the indicators). Now that you have your box you need to create a horizontal line at both the high and the low of the session. When you find the difference you will have how big the box is in pips. Lets say it is 110 pips. Then you need to check for overbought and oversold status during the session. Say you have both overbought and oversold status. Then you check to see if you are towards the top or bottom of the box which makes setting up your pending orders easier. For example lets say it started the session off at what will become the bottom of the box and moved all the way to the end of the session. The price is going in this senario to be at "the top of the box". So you would set pending orders to sell in the top 10%(11 pips) of the box using a stoploss of 20%(22 pips) and the first take profit at 10%. Then another pending sell order at that 10% profit level moving the stoploss up accordingly with the second take profit at the 20% level. Then maybe if you still have room before reaching 62EMA you would again move up the stop loss accordingly and set your final take profit at the EMA. Of course if this near perfect setup does not occur and you are in the middle of the box somewhere and the active session had both overbought and oversold territory breached then you need to be thinking of setting up pending orders from either direction( buy and sell) using the EMA as your target point.
The stop loss example you are asking about if you go back and look closely at it appears to be that he set his stoploss at 100 pips!! Hope my attempt at an explanation and answer to your questions is of some sort of help. But most of this information and so much more is available by taking the time to read this forum. He goes into risk protection and money management skills that I have not even touched on. Again hope this helps.
Michael
  • #214
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:25pm Jun 1, 2007 1:25pm
Mike and Mike,
Thanks guys.
Great explanations.
  • #215
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:11pm Jun 1, 2007 2:11pm
Quoting mikehabit
I have been following this strategy for the past few weeks and I am very happy with the results. I put together a stripped down version of this strategy in Tradestation. The back testing results were great. I only used 1 lots for the test with the assumption that most people don’t want to start trading a new strategy with a 3 lot risk. I still used the lowest/highest and 10/20 % levels. I will show an image to explain the entry process. For exits I use the 62 EMA and 1.00 stop loss. I did not use the RSI filter but I will get that set up next.

I back tested with all of the trade station data avaiable which goes back to oct/2002. This version was 76% profitable and...i will post the trade station report.
Thank Mike for sharing and backtesting
Making pips is easy, holding 'em is hard - Pipsopolis
  • #216
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:15pm Jun 1, 2007 2:15pm
Quoting mikebrewer5335
Mr billbss,
As near as I can tell you box in the active market session for the pairs. I am in California and if I do the gbp/jpy I need to create a box between 4PM pst and 9AM pst the next morning (iparamon worktime, works well, search this forum and find the indicator and download it to where you need it in your program files under your trading station usually under experts is the indicators). Now that you have your box you need to create a horizontal line at both the high and the low of the session. When you find the difference you will have how big the box is in pips. Lets say it is 110 pips. Then you need to check for overbought and oversold status during the session. Say you have both overbought and oversold status. Then you check to see if you are towards the top or bottom of the box which makes setting up your pending orders easier. For example lets say it started the session off at what will become the bottom of the box and moved all the way to the end of the session. The price is going in this senario to be at "the top of the box". So you would set pending orders to sell in the top 10%(11 pips) of the box using a stoploss of 20%(22 pips) and the first take profit at 10%. Then another pending sell order at that 10% profit level moving the stoploss up accordingly with the second take profit at the 20% level. Then maybe if you still have room before reaching 62EMA you would again move up the stop loss accordingly and set your final take profit at the EMA. Of course if this near perfect setup does not occur and you are in the middle of the box somewhere and the active session had both overbought and oversold territory breached then you need to be thinking of setting up pending orders from either direction( buy and sell) using the EMA as your target point.
The stop loss example you are asking about if you go back and look closely at it appears to be that he set his stoploss at 100 pips!! Hope my attempt at an explanation and answer to your questions is of some sort of help. But most of this information and so much more is available by taking the time to read this forum. He goes into risk protection and money management skills that I have not even touched on. Again hope this helps.
Michael
Great explanation. Thanks
Making pips is easy, holding 'em is hard - Pipsopolis
  • #217
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:39pm Jun 6, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting sahamdarjoz
I have started an extensive boring candle by candle backtest for GJ and I will post the results. I have focused on these three questions:
1- Is 20% a good S/L? As we had a couple of return in a matter of 1-3 pips over our S/L, I'd rather start using 25% in the backtest.
2- How much OB/OS sensitive to Hi and Lo in the system? Are they necessary or just a return is enough?
3- What happened if we let a free winning trade enters the active session? Does it brought back more profits?

Till now I'd rather use a 25% stop, enter half size when facing a non-correlating high and low with RSI zones (rather than not trading) and let the middle trade (10%) go to the active session (free of course) for the other end of the box.
I'll post the entire backtest as soon as I finish it.
My Backtesting is done and here are the new rules for Sedona:
1. stop is changed to 25% out of the box instead of 20%.
2. RSI can be ignored or you may enter half size when RSI is not in OB/OS territory.
3. I'd like to free one position with the other side of the box as the target to catch possible trend reversals.
Making pips is easy, holding 'em is hard - Pipsopolis
  • #218
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:45pm Jun 6, 2007 3:45pm
Just to clarify, would you still scale in at the 10% and 20% levels but increase the stop to 25%?
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #219
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:44am Jun 7, 2007 11:44am
Quoting stevegee58
Just to clarify, would you still scale in at the 10% and 20% levels but increase the stop to 25%?
exactly
Making pips is easy, holding 'em is hard - Pipsopolis
  • #220
  • Jun 7, 2007 2:27pm Jun 7, 2007 2:27pm
I have dumped the RSI from this strategy as an entry filter. I was looking at something like the MACD as a filter. If the MACD is -0.2500(or lower)/+0.2500(or higher) then do not enter Buy/Sell orders. I am still working on the MACD parameters.

For fun I optimized the EMA # from 20-420 EMA. For what it's worth 41EMA had the best results and the best (lowest) drawdown. Everything from 33/55 did pretty well.
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