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Simple morning hours breakout system - forward test $1000 => ?

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Feb 15, 2016 3:25am Feb 12, 2016 3:19am | Edited Feb 15, 2016 3:25am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
Hey there and a good new year 2016!

In this thread I want to introduce and forward test a dead simple breakout approach where I take the 30min candle from 9:00-9:30 (CET => GMT+1) and place stop buy and stop sell orders above and below. That's it. Traded pairs are EUR/USD and GBP/JPY...

Alright, here are the rules in a more readable form:

 

  1. Traded pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/JPY.
  2. Take the 30m candle from 9:00-9:30 (CET => GMT+1) and place two stop buy orders above that candle and two stop sell orders below (0.5% risk each).
  3. SL is 90% of the size of the candle for all orders.
  4. TP for one of the orders is 100% of the size of the candle, no TP for the other one (let it run).
  5. Order duration is 1 day.
  6. Once the buy or sell order is filled, place one additional buy order 1/2 below the entry. SL and TP have the same settings. Reason for this is to increase the position in case of an initial retracement.
  7. If one target is reached, clear the opposite order.


The idea behind this is to use the usual volatility in the first hours of the european trading session.

I will see that I show some example trades later on. Initial risk will be 1.5% per trade.

Cheers!

  • Post #2
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  • Feb 12, 2016 7:02am Feb 12, 2016 7:02am
  •  kasrafx
  • | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Member | 483 Posts | Online Now
Sounds good , waiting for examples
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Feb 12, 2016 9:11pm Feb 12, 2016 9:11pm
  •  M0ndm4nn18
  • | Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Member | 52 Posts
it's simple and will work sometimes.. Examples would be good, I back tested it right now. When the candle is too small, there won't be a good trade, when the wicks are too big or bigger than the candle, there is no good trade. Do you set the orders at both ends of the candle or at the ends of the wicks?

Mon
"If it wasn't hard everyone would do it. Its the hard that makes it great."
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Feb 12, 2016 10:08pm Feb 12, 2016 10:08pm
  •  LDFX
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Member | 970 Posts
Subscribed
LDFX Trading Ltd
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Feb 13, 2016 12:44pm Feb 13, 2016 12:44pm
  •  DerBerliner
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 822 Posts
Hi Xaron ! Nice to meet you here again.

Your approach in post #1 sounds very mechanically. So could you perhaps write an EA ? I think it's not so intricately to create such an instrument ?
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Feb 14, 2016 2:08am Feb 14, 2016 2:08am
  •  johnvr
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Member | 207 Posts
This is just another London Breakout strategy, nothing new, it's all been done before.
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Feb 15, 2016 3:24am Feb 15, 2016 3:24am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
Quoting johnvr
Disliked
This is just another London Breakout strategy, nothing new, it's all been done before.
Ignored
Do you look for new stuff or stuff that works? Why does it have to be new? I could add some funny indicators (which are completely useless btw because they do NOT add any new information).
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Feb 15, 2016 3:25am Feb 15, 2016 3:25am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
Quoting DerBerliner
Disliked
Hi Xaron ! Nice to meet you here again. Your approach in post #1 sounds very mechanically. So could you perhaps write an EA ? I think it's not so intricately to create such an instrument ?
Ignored
An EA is very possible and shouldn't be that hard to do. I'm just too lazy atm, might do it later. This is for sure not even close to a holy grail but it's simple and might work in the long run. I actually don't know.
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Feb 15, 2016 10:39am Feb 15, 2016 10:39am
  •  M0ndm4nn18
  • | Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Member | 52 Posts
some examples would be good, your trade history of the explorer isn't really helpfull...
"If it wasn't hard everyone would do it. Its the hard that makes it great."
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Feb 15, 2016 10:56am Feb 15, 2016 10:56am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
I will post some... Tomorrow.
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Feb 15, 2016 11:12am Feb 15, 2016 11:12am
  •  M0ndm4nn18
  • | Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Member | 52 Posts
Quoting Xaron
Disliked
I will post some... Tomorrow.
Ignored
Good to hear, see you tomorrow!
"If it wasn't hard everyone would do it. Its the hard that makes it great."
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Feb 15, 2016 1:03pm Feb 15, 2016 1:03pm
  •  Rizarma
  • | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Member | 40 Posts
will it work on another pair?
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Feb 15, 2016 1:40pm Feb 15, 2016 1:40pm
  •  DerBerliner
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 822 Posts
Quoting Xaron
Disliked
{quote} An EA is very possible and shouldn't be that hard to do. I'm just too lazy atm, might do it later. This is for sure not even close to a holy grail but it's simple and might work in the long run. I actually don't know.
Ignored
@Xaron
In fact - that would be quite enough !

Btw - a good start you have made in the test account above, documented by the trade report !
 
 
  • Post #14
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  • Feb 16, 2016 5:31pm Feb 16, 2016 5:31pm
  •  M0ndm4nn18
  • | Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Member | 52 Posts
Missed your examples too. Btw: I back tested EUR/USD today and it doesn't look good.... It's more a 50/50
"If it wasn't hard everyone would do it. Its the hard that makes it great."
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Feb 18, 2016 3:35am Feb 18, 2016 3:35am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
Right, a live example:

EUR/USD orders are set, let's see how this plays out:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: eurusd_180216_1.png
Size: 13 KB
 
 
  • Post #16
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  • Feb 18, 2016 6:34am Feb 18, 2016 6:34am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
After a while the sell stop order got filled. One has a TP, the other not, both have SLs. Added a sell limit order in the middle to catch a possible retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: eurusd_180216_2.png
Size: 13 KB
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Feb 18, 2016 6:59am Feb 18, 2016 6:59am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
First target almost hit...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: eurusd_180216_3.png
Size: 13 KB


...and hit. So now we remove all pending orders and trail the stop for the remaining open position. For trailing I use just the high of the last two finished candles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: eurusd_180216_4.png
Size: 13 KB
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Feb 18, 2016 7:34am Feb 18, 2016 7:34am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
Next candle started. Trailing the stop above the highest high of the last two candles...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: eurusd_180216_5.png
Size: 13 KB
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Feb 18, 2016 8:02am Feb 18, 2016 8:02am
  •  Xaron
  • Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Evil Kraut | 2,743 Posts
Trailing...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: eurusd_180216_6.png
Size: 17 KB
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Feb 18, 2016 8:45am Feb 18, 2016 8:45am
  •  DerBerliner
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Member | 822 Posts
Hi mate ! So plz, you are a nice guy - I know it - code that EA for this KISS strategy .... come on !
 
 
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