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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #5,381
  • May 11, 2023 10:06am May 11, 2023 10:06am
Quoting btrfx1
{quote} Morning Sir, Not specifically as Turnip and a few others are here also. I do spend a lot of time reviewing other peoples charts to try and understand their trading ideas, if I believe I can help I may submit a comment, as Laura has offered, but her comment re time is precious, so do apply yourselves, is very important. If I can help them I may post some ideas, as I did for you, however the most success I have ever had came from studying thousands of charts, applying what I had learnt, modifying them, reapplying those ideas, writing up...
Yes -an ongoing process for the serious trader.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,382
  • May 11, 2023 10:07am May 11, 2023 10:07am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi Ian, A couple of things jump out from your chart. Let's deal with the general first. It looks like a pretty bad time to be seeking an entry. Volatility is super-low and price is churning in a narrow range. To be more specific, your entry isn't ideal (regardless of the low volatility environment) - the most recent close outside of the channel was to the downside. We ideally want to see a close above the channel as that signifies a higher potential for bullish momentum. Once you get that close above the channel you can either enter straight...
Thank you Laura. This helps greatly.
  • #5,383
  • May 11, 2023 10:11am May 11, 2023 10:11am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi Ben - nice to hear from you. Partly health challenges and partly the fact I felt I had said enough already. Unfortunately I can't really maintain my Discord involvement enough to invite people in but who knows what the future holds. My nephew is thriving thanks - he's as tall as a house and far too cool to associate much with me
I got a grandson like that. Always ready for a story from a book or a trip to the seaside etc. Now he is a few years older and says "cool" a lot ,and sits at the computer, wearing his "cool" head phones and playing " Road Block" and same such with his friends.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,384
  • May 11, 2023 2:07pm May 11, 2023 2:07pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOIL.cashM1.png Size: 41 KB

Oil
-Entered on channel cross
-Was targeting ADR low, but I exited when bars started closing above channel
  • #5,385
  • May 11, 2023 9:17pm May 11, 2023 9:17pm
Quoting ianhjulberg
{image} Oil -Entered on channel cross -Was targeting ADR low, but I exited when bars started closing above channel
That was a better outcome mate. I checked the larger time frame an see that it Oil was heading South.

I do not understand the importance of ADR values, as I use other tools, ---my oil chart for May 11th had a low of something like 71.??? followed by another low before ranging sideways,as a matter of interest what was you target price ?

Ok talk later
Ben
  • #5,386
  • May 12, 2023 2:46am May 12, 2023 2:46am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{image} Oil -Entered on channel cross -Was targeting ADR low, but I exited when bars started closing above channel
Nothing wrong with the trade but I want to recommend an exercise.

Here we see the 15m view. I've marked when price started closing below the channel, put an X when it closed inside the channel and then marked when it closed above the channel. All of those 15m bars where price closed below the channel create quite a lengthy period of time where it's prime territory for sellers.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LCrude-sbM15.png Size: 20 KB



Now let's keep those markings in place and switch to 1m view. Notice how long you could potentially stay in the trade and how much 'noise' you have to ignore.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LCrude-sbM1.png Size: 23 KB



The thing about trading a 1m chart is that you will be confronted by a large amount of 'noise'. With experience and time, you learn what to pay attention to and what to dismiss as insignificant. But until those things are in place you are a hostage to the constant whipsaws created by order flow. On the chart you posted, price had already closed a few times above the channel - you ignored that but the next time there was a close above you exited.

So, let's try something if you're up for it. For anyone reading along, I'd recommend giving this a go also.

Aim to take 20 trades using this approach and record your win rate and profit factor.

Look for entry triggers on your normal timeframe chart as usual but now you must seek confirmation that the 15m timeframe is in your favour. If wanting to take a long entry, the 15m must show the most recent close beyond the channel as above and vice versa for shorts. This will likely feel frustrating at first, as it will probably involve you having to scratch lots of entries you wanted to take because they don't pass the 15m test. This is actually a positive.

As long as the 15m keeps closing on the correct side of the channel, you have permission to stay in the trade. You can dismiss what the 1m does. Obviously you still want to actively manage the trade and find an optimal and logical exit, but you don't have to react to every whipsaw.
  • #5,387
  • Edited 5:04am May 12, 2023 3:40am | Edited 5:04am
Quoting btrfx1
{quote} That was a better outcome mate. I checked the larger time frame an see that it Oil was heading South. I do not understand the importance of ADR values, as I use other tools, ---my oil chart for May 11th had a low of something like 71.??? followed by another low before ranging sideways,as a matter of interest what was you target price ? Ok talk later Ben
Thanks Ben.
My target was around 70.4 (adr low). But I exited when price broke my trendline
  • #5,388
  • May 12, 2023 4:14am May 12, 2023 4:14am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Nothing wrong with the trade but I want to recommend an exercise. Here we see the 15m view. I've marked when price started closing below the channel, put an X when it closed inside the channel and then marked when it closed above the channel. All of those 15m bars where price closed below the channel create quite a lengthy period of time where it's prime territory for sellers. {image} Now let's keep those markings in place and switch to 1m view. Notice how long you could potentially stay in the trade and how much 'noise' you have to ignore....
Wow, thank you.
I think I'm done trading the 1m timeframe for now lol. I'm just not experienced enough.
I will absolutely do the 15m exercise. It will keep me from overtrading (one of my issues)
I have so much to learn.
Thanks again Laura
  • #5,389
  • May 12, 2023 4:33am May 12, 2023 4:33am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} Wow, thank you. I think I'm done trading the 1m timeframe for now lol. I'm just not experienced enough. I will absolutely do the 15m exercise. It will keep me from overtrading (one of my issues) I have so much to learn. Thanks again Laura
Knowing you have a lot to learn, and being willing to do that learning, is a great start to the journey. The exercise will simplify your decision tree and will reduce the risk of over-reactions to short-term noise. You will find the point value of the wins and losses will be larger now, so you might want to adjust your size accordingly.

The 1m can still have value. It can be a tremendously useful timing tool for example. But treating the 15m as your king will mean those little twists and turns the quicker timeframe takes will become much less of an issue.

Good luck! Look forward to seeing the trades.
  • #5,390
  • Edited 5:06am May 12, 2023 4:52am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Knowing you have a lot to learn, and being willing to do that learning, is a great start to the journey. The exercise will simplify your decision tree and will reduce the risk of over-reactions to short-term noise. You will find the point value of the wins and losses will be larger now, so you might want to adjust your size accordingly. The 1m can still have value. It can be a tremendously useful timing tool for example. But treating the 15m as your king will mean those little twists and turns the quicker timeframe takes will become much...
Makes complete sense!
And yes, though I am a slow learner by nature, I am willing to do the learning. Eventually it will "click".
  • #5,391
  • May 12, 2023 11:15am May 12, 2023 11:15am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Nothing wrong with the trade but I want to recommend an exercise. Here we see the 15m view. I've marked when price started closing below the channel, put an X when it closed inside the channel and then marked when it closed above the channel. All of those 15m bars where price closed below the channel create quite a lengthy period of time where it's prime territory for sellers. {image} Now let's keep those markings in place and switch to 1m view. Notice how long you could potentially stay in the trade and how much 'noise' you have to ignore....
I've just closed my first trade for the 15m exercise. I think I did it right...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US30.cashM5.png Size: 24 KB

This is the 5m chart showing my entry after a channel cross.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US30.cashM15.png Size: 28 KB

This is the 15m chart showing bars closing under the channel, and the last bar which closed inside the channel is where I exited.



I've got another trade still open on Oil which is in profit as well.

So far so good, I think...
  • #5,392
  • May 12, 2023 11:22am May 12, 2023 11:22am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} I've just closed my first trade for the 15m exercise. I think I did it right... {image} This is the 5m chart showing my entry after a channel cross. {image} This is the 15m chart showing bars closing under the channel, and the last bar which closed inside the channel is where I exited. I've got another trade still open on Oil which is in profit as well. So far so good, I think...
Perfect!

Did it feel any different trading this way?
  • #5,393
  • May 12, 2023 11:28am May 12, 2023 11:28am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Perfect! Did it feel any different trading this way?
Yes!
It felt much easier to manage. I didn't have to waffle over when to exit.
I also had no emotion, because I knew the guidelines.
  • #5,394
  • May 12, 2023 11:31am May 12, 2023 11:31am
E/J sedately collecting pips. Pardon my fun emoj'ies
Seriously -work at the "Roadmap" and it pays off.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_2023-05-12_17-28-40_575e9.png Size: 171 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,395
  • May 12, 2023 11:39am May 12, 2023 11:39am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} Yes! It felt much easier to manage. I didn't have to waffle over when to exit. I also had no emotion, because I knew the guidelines.
That's ideal as two big elements of the exercise are to encourage discipline to get in and out according to rules and also to narrow your decision making down as much as possible, hence hopefully making you feel more in control and less 'lost'.

If the 20 trade series ends profitable, that's great. But don't worry too much about outcomes at this stage. Everything you are doing can be refined and improved.
  • #5,396
  • May 12, 2023 11:41am May 12, 2023 11:41am
Quoting turnip15
E/J sedately collecting pips. Pardon my fun emoj'ies Seriously -work at the "Roadmap" and it pays off. {image}
Nice T - also a lovely example of price becoming too extended beyond the SMA.
  • #5,397
  • May 12, 2023 11:54am May 12, 2023 11:54am
What a nice surprise for me this morning to see you active here again Laura .

All the best
Kevin
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #5,398
  • May 12, 2023 11:59am May 12, 2023 11:59am
Quoting bluesteele
What a nice surprise for me this morning to see you active here again Laura . All the best Kevin
Hey Kevin - good to hear from you.

Hope you're doing well.
  • #5,399
  • May 12, 2023 12:30pm May 12, 2023 12:30pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi Ian, A couple of things jump out from your chart. Let's deal with the general first. It looks like a pretty bad time to be seeking an entry. Volatility is super-low and price is churning in a narrow range. To be more specific, your entry isn't ideal (regardless of the low volatility environment) - the most recent close outside of the channel was to the downside. We ideally want to see a close above the channel as that signifies a higher potential for bullish momentum. Once you get that close above the channel you can either enter straight...
Hi Laura

It is so nice to hear that you are alive and wealthy to some extend.

I have seen this several times. An OP just disapear. No warning at all. The last post gave no sign at all, that it would be the last. Then the followers - I was one - get worried. "What has happened?". And we become sad. So to you and all other OP's with a lot off followers my wish is: It is of cause very OK if you need to get away from the thread - for any reason. But please, if it is possible, write just one single message to tell us, that you are leaving. Please.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #5,400
  • May 12, 2023 12:40pm May 12, 2023 12:40pm
One more winner from the 15m exercise...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOIL.cashM1.png Size: 40 KB

Entry on a channel cross to the downside...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOIL.cashM15.png Size: 43 KB

Exit after a bar closure inside the channel


I'm really liking this so far
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