Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 517 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #10,321
  • May 3, 2023 2:06am May 3, 2023 2:06am
BAJ Finance - DB in progress ?
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  • #10,322
  • May 3, 2023 2:13am May 3, 2023 2:13am
Infy possible upside ?
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  • #10,323
  • May 3, 2023 8:06am May 3, 2023 8:06am
NATURAL GAS Futures Daily

Envelopes
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  • #10,324
  • May 3, 2023 8:13am May 3, 2023 8:13am
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  • #10,325
  • May 3, 2023 8:22am May 3, 2023 8:22am
FLD 64 as Trend Following Tool

Actual Price is projected 1/2 Period (32 days ) in the Future
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  • #10,326
  • May 3, 2023 8:27am May 3, 2023 8:27am
Courtesy of Chris Grafton

https://notes.hurstcycles.com/long-t...tes-newsletter

Natural Gas futures long term - 18 month cycle trough not due until end of summer now - so more downside expected.


Longer term downtrend is still running

In the last note (14 March 2023) the phasing analysis pointed to the end February price low as that of the 18 month cycle trough.
However, the force of the preceding downtrend looks to have pushed the trough forward in time (trough right translation)and the estimate for the next 18 month cycle trough is now the end of August.

This would be 19.5 months since the last 18 month cycle trough in January 2021, but we expect wavelength to stretch in a heavy downtrend).
Since the last 18 month cycle trough we had a major peak (last August) and the down cross of the 18 month cycle VTL makes it a 54 month cycle peak.
This is the longest cycle we look at and has a lot of power. It's why the downtrend has been so strong.

So for the long term view suffice it to say that we likely have months more broad downside to come and the down-cross of the 18 month cycle FLD back in January actually targets below

1. It does not mean it goes this far but that's something to bear in mind.
So let's say we are looking back down to the summer of 2020 54 month cycle low of 1.43.
  • #10,327
  • May 3, 2023 8:30am May 3, 2023 8:30am
Current 80 day cycle peaked

The end of March trough is that of the 20 week cycle (we know this because the light blue down-sloping valid trendline associated with the 80 day cycle was crossed up in early April).

This is the last 20 week cycle before the 18 month cycle trough expected late summer.

We are are now in the first 80 day cycle (of two).

It looks like the spike high on 28 April was the 80 day cycle peak, which means that we are now in the downswing phase of that cycle and the trough is not expected until the first or second week of June.

The 80 day cycle FLD was crossed up by price on 27 April and in a completely neutral market the upside target to the peak would be 2.5, which was met exactly. This suggests that longer term bearishness is not flowing through to this 80 day cycle yet (had it been, we would have seen a target undershoot).

A 40 day cycle trough is due within the next week or so and should lead to a weak bounce and then back down towards the 80 day cycle trough.
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  • #10,328
  • May 3, 2023 8:41am May 3, 2023 8:41am
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  • #10,329
  • May 3, 2023 8:57am May 3, 2023 8:57am
How a Low build itself /: the Propagation Effect

A) Centered Moving Average 16 (red) has already build its Low
B) Centered Moving Average 32 (blue) is very close of having build its Low
C) Centered Moving Average 64 (lila) is dececelerating, almost flat, going toward its future Low

D) Centered Moving Average 128 (ocre) is trending Down (towards its future Low)
D) Centered Moving Average 256 (black) is trending Down (towards its future Low)
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  • #10,330
  • May 3, 2023 9:55am May 3, 2023 9:55am
Hi Parisboy I'm here to learn. How can I express a cycle mathematically, especially a triad.
  • #10,331
  • Edited 3:05pm May 3, 2023 2:54pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting aptx
BAJ Finance - DB in progress ? {image}
BAJ Finance Daily
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  • #10,332
  • May 3, 2023 3:04pm May 3, 2023 3:04pm
BAJ Finance Daily
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  • #10,333
  • May 3, 2023 11:56pm May 3, 2023 11:56pm
Baj Finance- follow through. However I called the bottom too early. There was one more dip -pending before the rocket launched.
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  • #10,334
  • Edited 8:53am May 4, 2023 8:09am | Edited 8:53am
DAX 40 Daily
"Inverted Cyles " & Sinewaves

"inverted cycles" (which cycles ?) are just a consequence of the dominant sinewaveoperative within Price Action.
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  • #10,335
  • Edited 12:23pm May 4, 2023 11:52am | Edited 12:23pm
quotes from Edward Dewey :

The easiest way to find rhythm in the ups and downs of a curve is by simple inspection.
This method takes a little practice but in many instances, I find it adequate.

You can often see several rhythms in the same curve at the same time.
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  • #10,336
  • May 5, 2023 12:20am May 5, 2023 12:20am
Hi Parisboy,

Was trying to read cyclitec material over past few days. It is surprising that he (Hurst) doesnt use moving averages at all in the material and yet expects people to visualize waves and cycles. An interesting comment that I came across was on the way he defines a trend. In our context where we use moving averages to approximate waves, is it ok to assume that if majority of the MAs (16/32/64/128/256) are looking up then the trend is an uptrend ? Its very intriguing when he says that "look at the direction of action of each component wave in the sum that makes up the trend". Without MAs how is he expecting some one to guess this ?
  • #10,337
  • Edited 7:39am May 5, 2023 6:03am | Edited 7:39am
Quoting aptx
Hi Parisboy, Was trying to read cyclitec material over past few days. It is surprising that he (Hurst) doesnt use moving averages at all in the material and yet expects people to visualize waves and cycles. An interesting comment that I came across was on the way he defines a trend. In our context where we use moving averages to approximate waves, is it ok to assume that if majority of the MAs (16/32/64/128/256) are looking up then the trend is an uptrend ? Its very intriguing when he says that "look at the direction of action of each component...
Hi aptx.

Moving Averages are a filter which smooth the numerical series - for us Price Action - .
Hence MA's have no independent existence by themselves.
MA's are just a way of reading Price Action.

Hence , to answer your question, when Price Action is Trending Up , MA's are trending Up too.
Do not forget that what we label as "Trend " is a Composite of no-independent mathematical items we label " Moving Average"

I need to summarize what Hurst wrote about "trend" Thanks for your remark.

The Cyclitec Course IMHO is First a Commercial Tool . 1.500 pages for 5.000 dollars (if you follow the Course) .
Hurst sold also a newsletter (Signals) and some periodograms calculations (from memory).

Hurst Cyclitec Course focus mainly on FLD's as a Trading Tool and on Phasing Analysis.

But if you analyze in detail what Hurst wrote in his Cyclitec course:

- Hurst used 5. 000 times the word Wave and only 800 times the word Cycle

- Hurst explained in a detailed way how a Moving Average works,and the link between MA's and FLD's

But Hurst does not use in the Course MA's as a trading Tool (MA's crossing) for calculating Target Price - as David Hickson of Sentient Trader Hurst focused on FLD's
  • #10,338
  • May 5, 2023 6:15am May 5, 2023 6:15am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Hi aptx. Moving Averages are a filter which smooth the numerical series - for us Price Action - . Hence MA's have no independent existence by themselves. MA's are just a way of reading Price Action. Hence , to answer your question, when Price Action is Trending Up , MA's are trending Up too. Do not forget that what we label as "Trend " is a Composite of no-independent mathematical items we label " Moving Average" I need to summarize what Hurst wrote about "trend" Thanks for your remark. The Cyclitec Course IMHO is First a Commercial Tool...
If many self-labelled "Cycle Analysts" pontificate about Cycles in the Market, it is the proof that there are no Cycles in the Market.

You do not sell books, seminars , webinars, conferences about something which is obvious; Clarity is not a good marketing tool .
  • #10,339
  • May 5, 2023 6:19am May 5, 2023 6:19am
Quoting aptx
Hi Parisboy, Was trying to read cyclitec material over past few days. It is surprising that he (Hurst) doesnt use moving averages at all in the material and yet expects people to visualize waves and cycles. An interesting comment that I came across was on the way he defines a trend. In our context where we use moving averages to approximate waves, is it ok to assume that if majority of the MAs (16/32/64/128/256) are looking up then the trend is an uptrend ? Its very intriguing when he says that "look at the direction of action of each component...
In addition to Alain's description above, the direction of the centred moving average is the sum of all cycles equal to or greater than the moving average. In other words, if the 128 period moving average is trending higher then sigma-L (the underlying trend) of all cycles >= 128 is up, so you don't need to determine if the majority are rising.
  • #10,340
  • Edited 1:05pm May 5, 2023 6:34am | Edited 1:05pm
I will elaborate later on various concepts we use or "Cycle Analysts" are using :

Cycle
Period
Periodicity
Rythm
Regularity
Frequency
Trend
Noise
Random
Wave - (Component Wave, Composite Wave, Dominant Wave)

etc
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