Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 515 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #10,281
  • Apr 25, 2023 4:38am Apr 25, 2023 4:38am
Possible DB in another one:
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  • #10,282
  • Apr 25, 2023 9:16am Apr 25, 2023 9:16am
ULTRATECH 1 mn

Double Top
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  • #10,283
  • Apr 25, 2023 10:53am Apr 25, 2023 10:53am
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  • #10,284
  • Apr 25, 2023 11:52pm Apr 25, 2023 11:52pm
Follow through:

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  • #10,285
  • Apr 25, 2023 11:53pm Apr 25, 2023 11:53pm
Quoting parisboy
{image}
Thanks parisboy. In your chart, the smaller rectangle represents trending mode- why do you say trending when it is relatively flat ?
  • #10,286
  • Apr 26, 2023 2:44am Apr 26, 2023 2:44am
Quoting aptx
{quote} Thanks parisboy. In your chart, the smaller rectangle represents trending mode- why do you say trending when it is relatively flat ?
Excellent remark : aptx there is no trend down or up - in this case , may be a better labeling would be "non cyclic flat"
  • #10,287
  • Apr 26, 2023 2:54am Apr 26, 2023 2:54am
courtesy of David F. of Sigma-L

https://www.sigma-l.net/p/shopify-25th-april-2023-74-days-snippet?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf

Signal Class & Attributes
Defining characteristics of the component detected over the sample period.
Detected Signal Class: C - learn more
Average Wavelength: 74.26 Days
Completed Iterations: 9

how to use this information to trade ?

is it a dominant Wave rythm ?
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  • #10,288
  • Apr 26, 2023 2:58am Apr 26, 2023 2:58am
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  • #10,289
  • Apr 26, 2023 3:01am Apr 26, 2023 3:01am
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  • #10,290
  • Edited 4:35am Apr 26, 2023 3:44am | Edited 4:35am
The "Cycles" guys, the Cycle Analysts have never taken into account the ambiguity of the word "cycle" they use .

This ambiguity was identified by Edward Dewey who founded the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.

Dewey talked several times in the magazine "Cycles" . But it is sparsed and IMHO Dewey did not draw all the practical conclusions of this situation..

Dewey noted that the word "cycle" is used in the general public to describe 3 different situations even if they are related.

Dewey identified ;

Cycle
Period
Rythm

Dewey after years of studying and manipulating (manually) "Cycles" reach the conclusion that it would be better to use the expression "Rythm Analysis" more than "Cycle Analysis"

But the President Dewey did not rename the name of his Foundation as "Foundation for the Study of Rythms" and the name of the magazine in which he published his stimulating conclusions as "Rythms" . It seems that the word "Cycle" is more appealing for the general public.
  • #10,291
  • Edited 1:31pm Apr 26, 2023 6:35am | Edited 1:31pm
This ambiguity creates misunderstandings and confusion and generates what I label as "The Hidden Cyclical Component(s) Syndrom"

We have seen that this "component" has a wavelenth of 74.26 days and that 9 items of it have been identified.

The operative question being "can you trade with profit this (Hidden) Component ?"
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  • #10,292
  • Apr 26, 2023 11:39am Apr 26, 2023 11:39am
ETHEREUM Daily
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  • #10,293
  • Apr 26, 2023 11:46am Apr 26, 2023 11:46am
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  • #10,294
  • Apr 26, 2023 12:16pm Apr 26, 2023 12:16pm
Courtesy of Chris Graftom from Hurst Notes

TASI Daily

TASI - in 20 week cycle peak zone and heading into FLD resistance.

Current stance - 20 week peak zone and near a key FLD upside projection.
1. The 20 week cycle FLD was crossed up by price on 3 April, which projects to 11,413 in a neutral market.
Because the end February trough was that of an 18 month cycle we are assuming there is an upside overshoot, potentially somewhat north of 1,500.
We should be able to estimate better nearer the price level, but we do know that TASI is extremely overbought here.

2. Moreover, as price reaches into this key projection we have two confluences of potential resistance.
The first is the 18 month cycle FLD.
This is loose resistance, but because a 20 week cycle trough beckons around mid-June and should drag price lower, we cannot expect a clean breakout through this long cycle FLD.
Additionally, a 20 week cycle peakcircle sits directly above now and we should expect the downswing to start fairly soon.

3. It's hard to say exactly where price falls to right now, but we have a rough downside target of 10,800 as an initial estimate.
This marks the consolidation that occurred in early April.
We will stay on top of the call and provide updates when required.
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  • #10,295
  • Edited 1:36pm Apr 26, 2023 1:25pm | Edited 1:36pm
some definitions by Edward Dewey :

Trend. ls the tendency of a series of figures to increase or decrease
gradually over a period of time.

Cycles are oscillations--ups and downs. The word comes from a greek word
meaning circle - a coming around again to the place of beginning, i.e., a low.
You will want to study these up and down motions in the hope that they will be
rhythmic.

Rhythm means to repeat with a beat, It comes from a Greek word meaning measured time.

Of course. Cycle Analysts are hopeful that the rythm will be so regular and will have
repeated so mary times that the regularity cannot reasonably be the result of
chance. In this event you can expect it to continue.
  • #10,296
  • Apr 26, 2023 1:48pm Apr 26, 2023 1:48pm
We quote again Edward Dewey :

Harmonic Analysis gives you the amplitude ( height ) and
phase (position in time) of the waves that may be present
on the average in the numerical series as a whole,
after corrections for trend,

In harmonic analysis the waves are assumed to be sine shaped,
but of course they may not actually be of this shape
  • #10,297
  • Apr 26, 2023 3:03pm Apr 26, 2023 3:03pm
A periodogram is merely a chart on which, after due adjustment,
you record the amplitude of the average waves at various wave lengths.
In other words it is a spectrum.
  • #10,298
  • Apr 28, 2023 1:14pm Apr 28, 2023 1:14pm
EURGBP Daily

Envelopes
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  • #10,299
  • Apr 28, 2023 1:20pm Apr 28, 2023 1:20pm
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  • #10,300
  • Apr 28, 2023 1:27pm Apr 28, 2023 1:27pm
Courtesy of Chris Grafton

https://notes.hurstcycles.com/eurgbp...tes-newsletter

EURGBP - 20 week cycle trough beckons lower.


Current stance - 20 week cycle still in downswing phase with the trough due second week of May.

1. A 20 week cycle peaked in early February but came in early (left translated) at only 15% along the anticipated full cycle wavelength.
This is bearish across the cycle and the analysis points to more downside.
2. The 20 week cycle consists of two 80 day cycles and the current (second 80 day cycle) peaked two days ago.
An FLD of this cycle has been plotted and may have been crossed down yesterday which generates a downside projection of 0.878,
although as the FLD is falling at the moment this might adjust lower - down to about 0.872 - once we can see a clean cross.
The trough is expected in the second week of May.
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