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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #281
  • May 2, 2007 1:05pm May 2, 2007 1:05pm
It makes sense to check out USDX on daily chart. The line drawn through two bottoms made on 05.15.2006 and 12.05.2006 is quite signficant for the moment.
  • #282
  • May 3, 2007 6:39pm May 3, 2007 6:39pm
USDX is forming a key reversal week now. Seems we're getting ready for some bull run on the buck.
  • #283
  • May 4, 2007 2:34am May 4, 2007 2:34am
Dera Igrok,
re the bull run on the usdx....

With this scenario, the weekly usd/swissy support that you point to could first lead to a rise to level of 1.2350ish, where there is a down pointing trendline resistance.

Are you seeing evidence of price walking through that resistance?

best
john h
aust
  • #284
  • May 4, 2007 3:14am May 4, 2007 3:14am
Quoting Igrok
USDX is forming a key reversal week now. Seems we're getting ready for some bull run on the buck.
*nods* And with NFP today we should get a good tilt to either side =)

Btw, Igrok, could I ask you a favor?

I posted some patterns to Traex's thread and I would love to hear whether you know anything about them / how to recognize and trade them.
I do not own your book, so this would be a voluntary thing =)
It could be I've simply been posting Head and Shoulders, but these formations aren't all neck breaks, they also have a sort of H&S shape, but the neckline holds and then we have a strong takeoff...it would appear you're the person to ask on how to distinguish one from the other and what is really what =)


http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1429087&postcount=150
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1429089&postcount=151
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1429091&postcount=152
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1431774&postcount=181
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1431777&postcount=182
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1431811&postcount=183

If you know or recognize one of those or can tell me where to find some info on them, I'd be interested, been watching these pop up quite a few times...


Just thought it might be worth a shot asking

Take care and keep posting your thoughts, it's interesting stuff =)


SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #285
  • Edited 6:41am May 4, 2007 6:23am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting SeekingLight
*nods* And with NFP today we should get a good tilt to either side =)

Btw, Igrok, could I ask you a favor?

I posted some patterns to Traex's thread and I would love to hear whether you know anything about them / how to recognize and trade them.
I do not own your book, so this would be a voluntary thing =)
It could be I've simply been posting Head and Shoulders, but these formations aren't all neck breaks, they also have a sort of H&S shape, but the neckline holds and then we have a strong takeoff...it would appear you're the person to ask on how to distinguish one from the other and what is really what =)


http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1429087&postcount=150
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1429089&postcount=151
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1429091&postcount=152
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1431774&postcount=181
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1431777&postcount=182
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1431811&postcount=183

If you know or recognize one of those or can tell me where to find some info on them, I'd be interested, been watching these pop up quite a few times...


Just thought it might be worth a shot asking

Take care and keep posting your thoughts, it's interesting stuff =)


SeekingLight
1. This is an artificial synthetic chart on the EUR/USD which is nonetheless similar to the reversed USD/DEM. The first pattern on the left is a channell. You just don't have enough data on your screen to see the whole picture. In fact, the highs made in 1988, 1991 and 1992 are on the same line. It could be shorted on the third touch using same strategy that would fit any other rising channel. The similarity between the left (historical) and the right (recent) formations is the fact that in both cases EUR/USD had no chance to avoid bearish divergence on some indicators like MACD for example. If you add this indicator to the chart you will see the similarity which also says that a drop below 1.1638 is guaranteed and will take place some time in the future. For the moment the most current formation looks like a broadening triangle to me. It might turn later on in the diamond and after trading inside of 1.38-1.18 range for another couple of years from now it will break below to target parity once again.
2. Those patterns are not similar to each other.
3. Same thing here. I guess it is just a wrong identification. You have to bear in mind that real H&S formation does have to follow some rules to be identified correctly. One of those rules says for example that the right shoulder must be equal or shorter than the left one. The pattern here looks more like a bullish wedge than a failed H&S.
4. Don't know what it is either.
5. Can't see any significance on this picture. It might probably make sense to extend our view horizon.
6. Nothing significant here as well except for the fact that the entire move from 1.9185 to 2.0133 is the main diagonal of a broadening triangle. Thus the ideal medium-term target for the moment is 1.9265 to match the low made in January.
  • #286
  • May 4, 2007 6:40am May 4, 2007 6:40am
Thanks Igrok

Yes, it would seem EURUSD monthly has quite some MACD divergence, although when it will "take" I have no idea
Wish I'd have more history beyond 1989.

Thanks for your thoughts however, I'll just have to keep an eye out for my usual PA clues on these things to tell me what's going where =)

Take care,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #287
  • May 6, 2007 1:16pm May 6, 2007 1:16pm
Quoting jsh01
Dera Igrok,
re the bull run on the usdx....

With this scenario, the weekly usd/swissy support that you point to could first lead to a rise to level of 1.2350ish, where there is a down pointing trendline resistance.

Are you seeing evidence of price walking through that resistance?

best
john h
aust
I don't know. The top on the EUR/USD doesn't seem to be final at the moment. Looks like it still has some unfinished business above 1.37. It also makes that support on the USD/CHF vulnerable. Only the change of the direction of the main move of the year on the USD/CHF will allow us to shift the view and to target 1.38-1.40 zone.
  • #288
  • May 8, 2007 7:06pm May 8, 2007 7:06pm
I read in GBP thread that you think GBP may come down to low 1.9500s this month... while I tend to agree, can you explain why you think this ???

I think maybe we are coming to an end of long term uptrend... at least for a little while... but while I spend so much time trying to confirm my idea... I don't want to miss the boat getting in... like I missed the boat on USD/CAD 800 pips ago !!!

I trust your thoughts far more than others in the GBP forums....
  • #289
  • May 8, 2007 7:14pm May 8, 2007 7:14pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I read in GBP thread that you think GBP may come down to low 1.9500s this month... while I tend to agree, can you explain why you think this ???

I think maybe we are coming to an end of long term uptrend... at least for a little while... but while I spend so much time trying to confirm my idea... I don't want to miss the boat getting in... like I missed the boat on USD/CAD 800 pips ago !!!

I trust your thoughts far more than others in the GBP forums....
It's just a common sense. Recently the average monthly range on Cable is about 450-500 pips. It has already changed the direction of the main move of the month twice this month and the direction is down at the moment. Assuming that we have already seen the top of the month, we can easily project the bottom. Besides there is an obvious broadening triangle clearly seen on monthly, weekly and even daily charts that target next diagonal low most likely to be at the 1.93-9260 zone.
  • #290
  • May 9, 2007 3:37pm May 9, 2007 3:37pm
Seems like GBP/JPY hasn't finished all its business on the upside yet. The flat surface on the top of the daily chart is a bullish sign calling for some more upside potential. It seems however that the previous hight at 241.50 might hold. If it does, then a sharp correction towards 213.00 zone is likely to be seen.
  • #291
  • May 9, 2007 4:12pm May 9, 2007 4:12pm
Quoting Igrok
Seems like GBP/JPY hasn't finished all its business on the upside yet. The flat surface on the top of the daily chart is a bullish sign calling for some more upside potential. It seems however that the previous hight at 241.50 might hold. If it does, then a sharp correction towards 213.00 zone is likely to be seen.
213? Good god, that's a long way down! Like looking out from a cliff, sort of.


I've always benefited from your analysis Igrok, and practically always agree so far. Is there a particular way/chart/TF you trade (you're obviously not a M5 guy haha), or do you look out for certain things before entering? If so whereabouts in the thread have you summarised it?

Cheers,
-P
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #292
  • May 9, 2007 4:56pm May 9, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting Plutonite
213? Good god, that's a long way down! Like looking out from a cliff, sort of.


I've always benefited from your analysis Igrok, and practically always agree so far. Is there a particular way/chart/TF you trade (you're obviously not a M5 guy haha), or do you look out for certain things before entering? If so whereabouts in the thread have you summarised it?

Cheers,
-P
To me TA is not about indicators but mostly about geometry. Historical charts provide enough information about the past thus making future visible as well. My longer-term analysis are usually accurate enough in terms of levels but not very precise in terms of timing and sometimes I also make mistakes when play a "nostradamus" by predicting sequences.
Generally speaking, the entire TA is mostly about triangles and channels. Every trend usually occurs inside of some sort of a channel, while every side trend is either also a horizontal channel or a triangle (diamond formation, for example, is nothing else, but two triangles put together). Borders of those patterns are usually quite easy to find and therefore the market is usually easy to trade on a longer-term. GBP/JPY is in the rising channel at the moment and the upper border has been touched already. If you draw the line between the lows of 2000 and 2005 you will get the lower border which naturally attracts the market. It comes at 213 in 6 months from now.
  • #293
  • May 9, 2007 10:22pm May 9, 2007 10:22pm
Hi Igrok,

Has EUR/USD just completed a diamond in h4?
Thanks for keeping this thread up.
Tra-X
  • #294
  • May 10, 2007 2:59am May 10, 2007 2:59am
Here is my longer-term view on the USD/CHF. The green line is the most likely target for this year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly FXUSSFMUL.jpg Size: 26 KB
  • #295
  • May 11, 2007 12:19am May 11, 2007 12:19am
that seems like a monthly chart with a yearly high of 1.37(ish).

since MAy 4th, line plot of pair and 3 precise trendlines derived from 4hr chart have been useful........

many thanks
john
aust
  • #296
  • May 11, 2007 3:37am May 11, 2007 3:37am
Igrok, in another thread you said: "For the moment Cable looks like being in a broadening triangle on hourly chart. If it turns into a diamond later on then the probability to see it gaining later in the day is higher because from such diamonds market usually makes breaks in the direction opposite to the direction of the main diagonal."
Could you please elaborate on what is the main diagonal, how do you determine it, and how do you use this information?
And btw, it's a pity that there is no electronic copy of your book on amazon. I'd love to be able to search for "main diagonal" in the text...
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #297
  • May 13, 2007 11:50am May 13, 2007 11:50am
Quoting ilanr
Igrok, in another thread you said: "For the moment Cable looks like being in a broadening triangle on hourly chart. If it turns into a diamond later on then the probability to see it gaining later in the day is higher because from such diamonds market usually makes breaks in the direction opposite to the direction of the main diagonal."
Could you please elaborate on what is the main diagonal, how do you determine it, and how do you use this information?
And btw, it's a pity that there is no electronic copy of your book on amazon. I'd love to be able to search for "main diagonal" in the text...
It indeed turned into a diamond as expected and, as expected, it later made a break on the upside. Check out the 60 min. chart here:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FXBPUSMUL.jpg Size: 27 KB
  • #298
  • May 13, 2007 11:58am May 13, 2007 11:58am
Quoting Igrok
It indeed turned into a diamond as expected and, as expected, it later made a break on the upside. Check out the 60 min. chart here:
Thanks for this, Igrok, however, my question was of a more general nature: "what is the main diagonal, how do you determine it, and how do you use this information?". I referred to the term "main diagonal" you used. If it's too basic a question, then please just disregard it.
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #299
  • May 13, 2007 12:06pm May 13, 2007 12:06pm
Quoting ilanr
Thanks for this, Igrok, however, my question was of a more general nature: "what is the main diagonal, how do you determine it, and how do you use this information?". I referred to the term "main diagonal" you used. If it's too basic a question, then please just disregard it.
Main diagonal is the longest one inside of a broadening triangle or a diamond. In this particular case it's the move down from 1.9816 to 1.9761.
  • #300
  • May 13, 2007 12:15pm May 13, 2007 12:15pm
Thanks a lot. And btw, the fact that you started posting charts is extremely helpful. Although it was of educational value to try to apply what you said in words to charts, but still, the old saying about 1 picture = 100 words has something to it... Thanks again. I'm learning a lot from you.
sans peur et sans reproche
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