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The DIBS Method - No Free Lunch Returns

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 2, 2021 8:36am Feb 1, 2021 7:06am | Edited Feb 2, 2021 8:36am
Quick Word:
First and Foremost I must thankyou PeterCrowns for being such an inspiration, he opened my eyes with his words, I took some of his hints and had some yet to figure out, feel free to share if you know what he is talking about. Other honorable mentions: Bemac (for starting the thread) and TheRealThing (PC's mentor).

This Thread's Main Purpose:
1. To analyze his posts and try to understand it, catch his "hints".
2. Trade the DIBS method live.

Who Is This Thread For?
1. System jumpers.
2. Seasoned DIBS traders.

Quick review of PeterCrowns' DIBS system:
1. Entry= H1 Inside Bar(IB).
//SL is below/above the IB, Pending STOP Orders are placed above/below the IB too.

2. Exit = D1 SMA(close, 20).
//It either hits your SL or it hits your trail SL. Not so fun (trading profitably) isit? The holy grail of this system is in the LONG TAILS.
edit: sorry I forgot to mention, that he takes 50% off on 1:1, and let the rest run until it's stopped by his trailing stop or he closed it manually when he is on holiday.

3. Trend Filter=

a.) Today's D1 Open Price relative to H1 IB.

//if IB is below Today's open= Only look for Sell Stops, vice versa. However if IB is between Today's open, trade both ways.


b.) D1 Open Price starts from 06:00 GMT.

//he trades from 06:00 GMT to 15:00 GMT or 16:00 GMT max.


c.) HOT HAND (THIS IS CRUCIAL)

//I'm just gonna quote him (link)

Quote
Trading the "hot hand": Trading the strongest/weakest market is actually really simple. For example, yesterday the Eur/Usd was up more proportionately than the Usd/Chf was down. This was because the Usd/Chf wasn't even a down day. Definitely off its highs but not down relative to last week's close. The Eur/Usd was up, up and away! So that is the market you buy.


//quick note: in general, he only trades 4 pairs= EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY.

//"Hot Hand" Summary:

/*

Most trending day relative to Yesterday's close and last Week's Close. //I love this, it's so objective..

So in short,

Yester-day's close is up (bullish), and Price Now is above last Week's close = CLEAR UP TREND = HOT HAND.

Yester-day's close is up (bullish), and Price Now is below last Week's close = Indecision = BAD HAND.


Yester-day's close is down (bearish), and Price Now is above last Week's close = BAD HAND.

Yester-day's close is down (bearish), and Price Now is below last Week's close = HOT HAND.


unpopular opinion: I think Hot Hand is a poker terminology.

*/


Quote
Obviously, it would logically follow that the currencies which are up more are better buys and the ones down more are the better shorts. So basically, if you get a buy setup forming on two strong currencies, take the trade on the one up most on the day.


//I do think this one should be self-explanatory.


//For e.g. GU is up, UJ is down and both are Hot Hands, then you should pick the ULTIMATE HOT HAND.

//you should pick which ever is the more trending one.

//and if all are Indecision(daily up, Weekly down) then simply don't trade.


//DIBS is merely a Trend Following strategy and trading IBs is a method to get sniper entries and tight stops on an existing trend.

//the holy grail is in the LONG TAILS.


To Summarize:
Lemme quote him before I give you my humble opinion (link) //yup, still the same post.
Quote
I'm sure this sounds simplistic to everyone, and maybe this stuff is obvious to you all, but I doubt it. How many times do you find yourself buying a weaker currency instead of the stronger one, thinking that the weaker one "has" to catch up, or the stronger one has already moved as much as it is likely to already.

Always buy setups in the strongest daily markets, always take sell orders in the weakest daily markets.

And yes, I have come up with very simple methods to exploit this. Breakouts of inside bars on hourly charts is one very useable technique I use a lot. Pennants of various constructions work very well too. Once you know which markets to trade, and in which directions--- it is a pretty simple job.

After all, trading is just risk control. Unfortunately it can take a while for us to learn to use the simple tools we have available.

Okay so my opinion:
This is how he basically trade in general:
1. TRADE TRENDING MARKETS.
2. FIND ENTRIES ON SMALLER TIMEFRAME.
3. KEEP YOU BETS SMALL.

sounds familiar? If you don't like this simplistic idea, I suggest you to jump to other strategies and come back here when you have tried everything. Cuz I assure you, I've tried everything, and the simpler & more objective it is, the longer it will work, this is called consistency.
//I suggest you to click the link on the word "consistency" blue-labeled and read it.

FOR THE SAKE OF CLARITY:
Inside Bar is not THE system you want to focus your attention to. THE system that you want to focus to is THE HOT HAND method.
NB: Inside Bars has NO EDGE, I've personally built an EA and back-tested over 10 years worth of data. I'll geek-out about the research on the 2nd post.

Inside Bar, like any other Candle Stick patterns has NO EDGE what-so-ever, they are simply tools for me.
F.A.Q. on my statement above
1.) So why do they work?
>> THEY ONLY SOMETIMES WORK. WHICH PROVES NO EDGE.

2.) So why are there profitable traders who are still using it?
>> I can't give you one correct answer but I can give you a general answer: Sniper Entries, Tight SL, low risk entries (low risk means tight SL).
>> alternate answer: I can't put it better than Mark Cuban himself:

Quote
... everyone is a genius on a bull market...

//any type of trader will simply profit from a bull/bear market if they follow it. even the Gann's will also profit from it.
//even if you just place a buy/sell stop on the high/low of yesterday, everyday. You will could be a millionaire. I can guarantee that. (with high risk ofc)

3.) If they prove no edge at all, so how do I trade the market to make infinite yield (infinite return)?
>> By following the trend and keep your Stop Losses relatively tight, and because now you will lose more than you win you should consider on keeping your bets small. (no more than 1% per trade)

GLOSSARY:
LONG TAILS= let your winners run and cut your losses short.
//"Cut your losses short" translates into= having a tight stop-loss.
//for some of you who still don't get it, it literally means holding a trade for a prolonged period of time, to get the most profits out of the existing trend, and simply hold your position until you get stopped out by your trailing stop loss. Or I would like to call it: Buy n Hold.

HOT HAND= a pair with a STRONG TREND.
//Whose current Price is the furthest away from last Week's Close is the Ultimate HOT HAND.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #2
  • Feb 1, 2021 7:59am Feb 1, 2021 7:59am
I'll keep this one short.
this is for the geeks.
btw this is mt5.

The parameters:

Direction
>> long only , short only , both.
//should be self-explanatory

direction_filter_input
>>open of the direction_timeframe, breakout of the direction_timeframe, MA_directional_filter, no_filter
//open - if price above open of direction_timeframe then only look for buys, vice versa.
//breakout - if price broke the high of direction_timeframe then look for buys, vice versa.
//ma - if current close is above directional_timeframe MA , look only for buys, vice versa.

trailstop_filter_input
>>sma_filter, ric's filter, no trailing stop
//sma filter is on the trailstop_timeframe
//sma filter - on a buy trade, when price closes below the SMA then close the position, vice versa
//ric's filter is on the signal_timeframe
//ric's filter - on a buy trade, when a bearish candle is formed, and the low of that bearish candle is broken, close the trade when the bar is closed.

riskPerTrade
>> 0.5% risk per trade

input_riskExposure
>> max total risk is set to 2%

TP
>> if buy, the TP *range of the input_PTN's bar and add to the high of the input_PTN's range, vice versa.

SL
>> if buy, the TP *range of the input_PTN's bar and add to the lowof the input_PTN's range, vice versa.

minSL
>> minimum SL is set to 5 pips

noSLlotcount
>> set this to 0
//a way to count the lot size without a physical SL.

ma_method
>> simple, smoothed, exponential, linear weighted

source
>> open, high, low, close, median, typical, weighted price.

ma_period
>> moving average period is set to 20
//for trail stop purposes

time_filter 1 or 2?
>> 1, 2.
// 1= only find input_PTN on timetotrade.
// 2= find input_PTN between timetotrade and timenotrade

timetotrade
>> time allowed trading

timenotrade
>> time not allowed trading

signal_timeframe
>> input_PTN timeframe

direction_timeframe
>> direction_filter_input's timeframe

input_PTN
>> 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 on signal_timeframe

input_PTN_exit
>> exit on signal_timeframe
//if the exit is 'always true' then it will exit on the trailstop_filter_input

pd
>> this is no longer relevant

spread
>> buystop =high + spread(in pips)

PTN:
0= IB //inside bar
1= OB //outside bar
2= NR(1) //narrowest range of yester-bar and the bar before
3= WR(1) //widest range of yester-bar and the bar before
4= NR(2)
5= WR(2)
6= IB&NR(2) //yester-bar has to be an inside bar and also the narrowest range of the bar before and the bar before that
7= OB&WR(2) //yester-bar has to be an outside bar and also the widest range of the bar before and the bar before that
8= always true

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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input_PTN_exit= 8 (always true, only rely exits on trail stops and stop loss)
as you can see,, there is no edge at all.
You need to rely on one important factor that machines can't do:
1. first and foremost YOU NEED TO HAVE INSTINCT.
2. second only you can distinctly differentiate a hot hand from a bad hand. a machine can't do that yet.
3.
Quote
..,everybody is a genius on a bull market...
remember this quote.

back-testing can be very deceiving and I'll show you an example:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a0dcee557c767ff4cd3158eb9dc1632b.png Size: 77 KB

same expert. slightly different parameters.
what I'd done is set the 'Modelling' on the 'Settings' tab right under the screen to 'Open prices only'.
and the SL i set it to 0.2 (which is illogical btw, because if you set it that close, the real tick data will hit you sell stop then go to your stop-loss then it will go to your direction, but if you set it to 'Open prices only' It will not do the 'up down' thing like it does on the 'real tick data' or just 'tick data' or you also can use '1minute ohlc' to increase the speed of the back-testing, i personally like to use 5min 'open prices'.

so ofc the question needs to be asked:
WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS EA AND HOW CAN I BACKTEST DIBS METHOD EFFICIENTLY FOR THE BACK-TEST GEEKS OUT THERE.
>> to simply put:
Quote
...everybody is a genius on a bull market...

just follow the trend.

I have done rigorous back-testing on different strategies that i can think of, and the conclusion I can make is:
Quote
...everybody is a genius on a bull market...

you do not need fancy filters.
you do not need fancy indicators.
you do not need fancy terminologies.
you just need to simply follow the trend.
and you can't let a robot to decide which way the trend is heading to.

and also: keep your bets small, scale in on an uptrend / downtrend, you'll be a millionaire if you keep doing this consistently.
any kind of entries is fine, i prefer low risks entries (tight stop-losses).

Quote
...everybody is a genius on a bull market...
-Mark Cuban
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #3
  • Feb 1, 2021 8:26pm Feb 1, 2021 8:26pm
I will share the live trading more frequently on my public telegram channel: https://t.me/DIBStrading
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #4
  • Edited Feb 2, 2021 9:09pm Feb 1, 2021 10:31pm | Edited Feb 2, 2021 9:09pm
More "hints" (link)
Quote
There are "secrets" of trading that are known to a few of us. These secrets buy our multi-million-dollar homes and lives of relative security.

Some of them are very simple- but not known or able to be exploited by many. You actually only need one good one to gain entry to a world that no one ever really sees, until you're there yourself.

His so-called "secrets" is in the LONG TAILS. Let you winners run and cut your losses short. re-read my first post if you forgot what this means.
If you believed that his "secrets" is some sort of magic indicator,, well I can confirm that you are wrong. He has said it himself:
Quote
I traded simple, robust breakout setups that I had to wait for. I can't tell much change in profitability to right now.
Quote
The power of this simple concept still amazes me.
Quote
And yes, I have come up with very simple methods to exploit this. Breakouts of inside bars on hourly charts is one very useable technique I use a lot.
Quote
it is a pretty simple job.
Quote
After all, trading is just risk control. Unfortunately it can take a while for us to learn to use the simple tools we have available.
Quote
...profitable trading can be simple. Most are looking for some special complex answer. It isn't there!")
Quote
I've found "elegantly simple" in trading is best.

you get my point.

Quote
And, contrary to some common beliefs, not all breakouts are the same. I know which breakouts have 2 - 5 times the edge of similar-looking breakouts others take, get frustrated with, and likely lose money trading if they don't have perfect skills.
(link)

not all breakouts are the same.
What does he mean by this? It's quite vague if you just focus on those words.
Fortunately, PC is quite a teacher. He elaborates what he meant by it:
I know which breakouts have 2 - 5 times the edge of similar-looking breakouts others take, get frustrated with, and likely lose money trading if they don't have perfect skills.
key words:
Quote
perfect skills.


what is "perfect skills"?
it just means: following your trading plan methodically. like a robot.

how about "2 - 5 times the edge"?
key words:
Quote
of similar-looking breakouts others take, get frustrated with, and likely lose money trading if they don't have perfect skills.
and if you still don't get it, take a step-back look it on a bigger scale.
the edge he is talking about is quite simple: it's in the LONG TAILS.
Quote
...everyone is a genius on a bull market...
-Mark Cuban

get it?

A pro surfer is only interested in surfing the big waves, surfing the small waves will only waste their time.
this should be applied to trading as well.


I shall continue the 5th post with a different "hint"
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #5
  • Edited 9:08pm Feb 2, 2021 2:04am | Edited 9:08pm
another "hint" (link)

Quote
Simple works in the markets, because they are very simple.

Most traders complicate things incredibly. Because their minds probably can't handle the truth yet that the markets basically feed where the orders are.

I think this is very self-explanatory and I'm not gonna lecture you anymore.
But for those of you who still don't get it:
"Simple" means following the trend.

"the markets basically feed where the orders are."
If this passage confused you, don't be confused, it is just an elaboration of trend following. You don't need to know where the 'orders are' all you need to know is the existing trend. Just follow the trend.


Quote
All trading systems or methods are just some structure humans need to use to aggregate results. I use them too. But I use the simplest structures I can because those are the ones the markets can "understand" the best.

"aggregate results" means getting the best out of the existing trend.

"But I use the simplest structures I can because those are the ones the market can 'understand' the best."
in short, this means trend following. It is the simplest structure. After all, it's just a diagonal line from the bottom/upper left of your chart to the upper/bottom right of your chart.

Quote
It sometimes seems TOO easy. That's ok. It helps make up for the times where you get small losses over and over and over again.

Quote
The psychologically hardest one to trade is the one I use. I use the other extreme of the inside bar for my stop point.
(link)
also the psychology sounds a bit like this: accept the small losses in hoping for a bigger return. law of averages . and it will come.
a heads up: you will experience more losses and break-evens than wins.

Quote
The risk is as low as it is going to be and the best trades for us are the ones that don't give you ANY retracement after the breakout. Yes, you get stopped out a bit more than if you had the stop a bit farther away. We are trading to risk as little as possible for the greatest amount of potential gain.
just an observation from him, as I thought you should know about it.

Quote
Imagine the overall success rate of someone taking the opposite side of these breakout trades and only exiting when we exit. They would be trading with unlimited potential risk and only could look forward to very limited potential profits.

Apply the above thought structure to any system you can analyze and see which system would be the most dangerous to fade. That is the system you wish to trade.

The method we have been discussing is one of these extremely "dangerous-to-fade" systems.
this should make perfect sense, why is he trading the inside bar instead of the outside bar or the other candle stick patterns.

he choses the inside bar because it is extremely dangerous to fade the inside bar.
"fading" the inside bar means selling on the high of the inside bar and buy on the low of the inside bar.
From my experience trading, it is extremely dangerous to trade this way, from a reversal-trading stand-point, I would rather fade the outside bar than the inside bar.
because of the "compression-expansion"/"impulse-correction" general theory on trading.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #6
  • Feb 2, 2021 2:43am Feb 2, 2021 2:43am
Quoting remonpilip
So in short, Yester-day's close is up (bullish), and Price Now is above last Week's close = CLEAR UP TREND = HOT HAND
In this example price today has to be above last weeks close. So it doesn't necessarily have to be above current day's open?
  • #7
  • Feb 2, 2021 2:47am Feb 2, 2021 2:47am
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} In this example price today has to be above last weeks close. So it doesn't necessarily have to be above current day's open?
Yes it has to be above the current day's open and above last week's close for a buy trade

But if the IB is between the current day's open, and IB is above last Week's close, then I suggest you to only look on the buy side
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #8
  • Feb 2, 2021 2:58am Feb 2, 2021 2:58am
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} Yes it has to be above the current day's open and above last week's close for a buy trade But if the IB is between the current day's open, and IB is above last Week's close, then I suggest you to only look on the buy side
Of course. I was interpreting these four possibilities and overlooked the core of the entry. Sorry..
  • #9
  • Feb 2, 2021 3:02am Feb 2, 2021 3:02am
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} In this example price today has to be above last weeks close. So it doesn't necessarily have to be above current day's open?
The following passage is just to find a hot hand early in the day
Before the trading day starts (6am gmt)

After trading day start, you have to filter trades with the current day's open price (6am gmt)
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #10
  • Feb 2, 2021 4:12am Feb 2, 2021 4:12am
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} Of course. I was interpreting these four possibilities and overlooked the core of the entry. Sorry..
Nvm bro
For clarity-sake:
Before you find H1 IB, before your finger start itching.
There are 2 things you need to identify before entering the market.
1. Identify the Hot Hands (there should be two, eu/gu and uj/uh) uh=usdchf.
2. Identify whether the Hot Hands have an up/down Week and only trade by following its direction.
3. Identify whether the Hot Hands have an up/down Day and only trade by following its direction.
4. Then you can start finding H1 IBs

Note:
Price relative to Last Week's Close and Today's Daily Open should be on the same direction.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #11
  • Edited 8:33am Feb 2, 2021 6:53am | Edited 8:33am
another "hint" (link)

I'm sure you are getting tired of me keep on rambling about Trend Following like that M. Covel guy..
Well, this is what I've to say: the main difference between a profitable trader and a struggling trader lies in the length of their TAILS..

Quote
If you enter these trades in the direction of a longer term trend, and trail a number of them, the position you can accumulate over a few weeks and months can be tremendous. So are the profits!
just a pro side of this strategy. the cons is that you'll lose a lot. just have faith and wait for the trend to mature further.

Quote
I tend to focus on the ones in the best trends and then, lowest costs of trading- in that order. If a market has a better trend but worse costs, I will move up in time frame to 3 or 4 hour charts to compensate. The trend is who pays you.
(link)
When he said: "I tend to focus on the ones in the best trends and then, lowest costs of trading- in that order."
Trends are pretty obvious. It goes from the bottom left to upper right(trending down) or upper left to bottom right(trending up).
Like I said in the previous post, determine your "Hot Hands" first, then look for the up/down day and lastly find H1 IBs. in that order.

what does he mean by "lowest costs of trading"
elaboration: "If a market has a better trend but worst costs, I will move up in time frame to 3 or 4 hour chars to compensate."
when he said "lowest costs" he was mainly referring to time this is for some of you who have other things to do and can't trade the IB at the time.
Quote
There is a "cost" to trading. Time, execution costs, capital costs--- but mainly time. Time you could be doing something more constructive perhaps, like a job where you make sure money. (That has to do with "utility" too.)
(link)

Okay this next one is a good one:
(link)
Quote
Utility Theory

People generally are unaware of the amount of time involved in a long secular trend, and usually are unwilling to hold winning positions long enough to profit to the degree possible. (This is a good thing for professional traders--)

It would take too long here to do a good job of explaining it. A friend who traded with me in the pits wrote an article in "Trader's World" on the subject and gave me permission to attach the PDF of the article here in FF. It is titled: Trading for...

When a pro trader tells you to be patient, this is what he means by it. Also on waiting for your edge to form.
Think in terms of yearly % profits, daily will kill ya.

Quote
Your questions-

 

  1. In a series of long trades for example, do you trail your stops at each new IB setup? i.e You're in a long trade based on an IB, with your stop currently just below that IB. You get another I.B. later on in the same direction and set up for an additional trade. ....Do you then move your stop from the previous position to the new stop level?
  2. Does this trailing also define your profits?
  3. Do you ever close a trade for any other reason? i.e.

...


trailing stop is on you, you can use some sort of ATR stops or like him you can just simply use a simple moving average (link), period set to 20, on the daily chart, and just trail your stop accordingly. either it hits your SL or your trail SL. and trail SL will ultimately define your profits.

"You need to let the market pay you. You shouldn't limit what it will give you."
eat that. digest. poop it out, then eat it again.
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #12
  • Feb 3, 2021 7:19am Feb 3, 2021 7:19am
Okay I'm just gonna stop here. And 1 last tip.
The best breakouts usually happen so early in the morning. (link)

an IB setup that happens an hour before the market opens (his market opens at 06:00GMT)
usually is the best breakout.

that's all for now. see you in the near future.
I'll keep updating on my public tele channel until I'm bored.

Regards,
Raymond
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #13
  • Feb 3, 2021 8:33pm Feb 3, 2021 8:33pm
Here's a Summary on PC's teachings:
1. TRADE THE STRONGER CURRENCY (link)
>> Identify Hot Hand using Price relative to Last Week's Close and yesterday's Daily movement.
Quote
Trading the "hot hand": Trading the strongest/weakest market is actually really simple. For example, yesterday the Eur/Usd was up more proportionately than the Usd/Chf was down. This was because the Usd/Chf wasn't even a down day. Definitely off its highs but not down relative to last week's close. The Eur/Usd was up, up and away! So that is the market you buy.

>> A bit of word from PC regarding the Hot Hand method.
Quote
I'm sure this sounds simplistic to everyone, and maybe this stuff is obvious to you all, but I doubt it. How many times do you find yourself buying a weaker currency instead of the stronger one, thinking that the weaker one "has" to catch up, or the stronger one has already moved as much as it is likely to already.

Always buy setups in the strongest daily markets, always take sell orders in the weakest daily markets.


2.LONG TAILS (link)
>> this wisdom can be traced back to the 19th & 20th century when Jesse Livermore was still alive (ca. 1877-1940)
Quote
It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting.
Got that? My sitting tight!

- Jesse Livermore



3. DANGEROUS TO "FADE" (link1)(link2)
>> for context purposes: he is talking about the H1 Inside Bar tool.
Quote
Imagine the overall success rate of someone taking the opposite side of these breakout trades and only exiting when we exit. They would be trading with unlimited potential risk and only could look forward to very limited potential profits.

Apply the above thought structure to any system you can analyse and see which system would be the most dangerous to fade. That is the system you wish to trade.

The method we have been discussing is one of these extremely "dangerous-to-fade" systems.

SUMMARIZATION:
>> low risk= trade the stronger currency (strong trending currency out of the 4 he trades EU,GU,UJ,UH.)
>> not a method to "fade"= price goes up when-ever there are more buyers than sellers and vice versa.
And because there are no one is crazy enough to "fade" the Inside Bar (because it is dangerous to do so) then it is a genuine "place to stand".
>> long tails= let your winners run.

Quote
Obviously, finding the low risk “place to stand” is crucial. For me, DIBS has proven to be one. It is definitely not a method to "fade".

This trade is an actual working example of how you can, with a simple but durable methodology, expect to make profits from long tails.

There are consequences for trading correctly. Exponential profits!

Best of luck on your trading journey!
Raymond
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #14
  • Last Post: Apr 17, 2023 3:00pm Apr 17, 2023 3:00pm
So it’s 2 years later. Did you find success with the Dibs method?
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