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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,021
  • Mar 8, 2023 8:40am Mar 8, 2023 8:40am
Question for anyone. When is a heavy volume test bullish and when is it more likely a sign that supply is present?

Attached is an example. With #28, there's above average volume but the market just pushes higher. The only other textbook VSA principle I can see at play here is the more nebulous 'long-term test' for the 17th bar since the climactic volume (see the question mark). Or is it as simple a SoS in the background so treat most tests as bullish?

Interested to hear how others would analyze #28.
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  • #36,022
  • Edited 6:53pm Mar 8, 2023 6:41pm | Edited 6:53pm
Quoting Macallik
Question for anyone. When is a heavy volume test bullish and when is it more likely a sign that supply is present? Attached is an example. With #28, there's above average volume but the market just pushes higher. The only other textbook VSA principle I can see at play here is the more nebulous 'long-term test' for the 17th bar since the climactic volume (see the question mark). Or is it as simple a SoS in the background so treat most tests as bullish? Interested to hear how others would analyze #28. {image}
its an easy question Mate, but i dont know if you will read my answer because i'm in your ignore list, so maybe you will not see the answer hahaha, but dont worry you can put me in your ignore list i really dont care, and i see this question is very important for VSA trader maybe others will get benefits from this too.

Its called #28 "Spring" one of important principle in VSA, if you see buying in the background and the price come back to support area and you see high volume but narrow spread thats a sign of Spring and at that level the price is quickly recovered and go to the higher level.

#17 it is not climatic volume price was closed under the previous level, you should read MtM book again to understand what is climatic volume.
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  • #36,023
  • Mar 8, 2023 9:25pm Mar 8, 2023 9:25pm
Thanks Cyberforex, appreciate your input.

Springs are definitely an important principle, but I do want to note they are Wyckoffian and not a part of VSA. Tom Williams mentions a spring board which is a low volume shakeout, but springs are never brought up in MtM, in any of his newsletters articles from 2010 - 2015, and is never mentioned by Gavin in Trading In the Shadows.

I checked my notes and Williams never appears to have coined a phrase. I did find this excerpt in his newsletter (broken in two to avoid truncation):

Quote
as the market falls, eventually professional money will see an opportunity where they can enter the market and create a rally of some sort. so here, the exact opposite happens at the bottom of the market as to the top. You get high volume on a down-bar but the key observation is the price spread narrow, and the market has declined making the market vulnerable to business opportunities from professional money.

Quote
Most of these lows are seen on narrow spreads indicating although the volume may be high on the down-bar, that the market has been supported, creating a narrow spread on a downbar. This in most cases will produce a signal of strength appearing automatically. You may often see also a similar type of down-bar where the volume is very low. If the spread is narrow on the down-bar then the market has got no sellers in there, and that is a sign of strength so the path of least resistance must then be up.

I think the part that tripped me up was the expectation that the SoS would need to be tested before the move higher. Thanks again.

(Also although I'm overdue to reread MtM, I know #17 isn't climactic volume... if you reread my post, you'll see that climactic volume started @ #1 and so #17 is 17 bars from climactic volume as I stated )
  • #36,024
  • Edited 12:45am Mar 9, 2023 12:30am | Edited 12:45am
Oh ok got it I read it wrong (#17), sorry Mate. Btw about Spring it's true, originally it's Wyckoff concept but everything about Volume and Spread analysis I think as VSA concept even if Tom Williams rarely spoke about it just to make it simple.
  • #36,025
  • Mar 9, 2023 1:29am Mar 9, 2023 1:29am
EURUSD attempting a bullish Jump across the creek (15 mins). Much overhead to the left though.
  • #36,026
  • Mar 16, 2023 10:13am Mar 16, 2023 10:13am
I'm suppose to be on vacation right now but couldn't sleep.

I'm not sure VSA gets any easier than this.

Yesterday on the low you have a low volume down bar which allows price to rally.

Basically every time price tried to dip today it found a hidden test, mix that with yesterday's low volume bottom.. I mean what else can you do besides buy it?
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  • #36,027
  • Mar 19, 2023 11:40am Mar 19, 2023 11:40am
although the D1 candle has not yet closed. tomorrow could be a bearish day.

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  • #36,028
  • Mar 30, 2023 7:14am Mar 30, 2023 7:14am
We still have the VSA discord server going, the catch is that you have to participate in some form. If you're interested in the invite link you can message Gambis, Macallik or me.
  • #36,029
  • May 1, 2023 10:16am May 1, 2023 10:16am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD Monday short hrly weak background.png Size: 25 KB

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Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD Monday short hrly weak background.png 5m entry AR break ND confirmed after weakness 5R trade. Size: 20 KB
  • #36,030
  • May 1, 2023 5:03pm May 1, 2023 5:03pm
Quoting Anotan
We still have the VSA discord server going, the catch is that you have to participate in some form. If you're interested in the invite link you can message Gambis, Macallik or me.
Hi Anotan. I can't send a PM because of my account status. How can I join the group? I'm interested.

Thanks!
  • #36,031
  • Edited 10:11am May 3, 2023 7:58am | Edited 10:11am
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EDIT> haven t pressed buy yet as the candle that broke AR had a bit more volume then i would ve liked to see. also FOMC day today, so i need to see clear imbalance in order to trade. cos it could just stay there till news. so a nice low volume test around that area (NS) would be great.
i ll pass on this trade, it s late nearing London close and the odds on such a news day of it running till then just aren t worth it.
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Click to Enlarge Name: wefnesday FOMC day GU 5m waiting for AR break NS but 2 wide candle confirming it plus vol increased. Size: 19 KB
  • #36,032
  • May 3, 2023 9:17pm May 3, 2023 9:17pm
we dont need to have best entry more important is we trade in the right direction, the rest is money management, 90 pips enough, make it simple Mate .....

here my trades in M5 TF (like your chart), but my entry based on higher TF, just put it in your perpective ...

Happy trading
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  • #36,033
  • May 4, 2023 1:34am May 4, 2023 1:34am
Quoting Cyberforex
we dont need to have best entry more important is we trade in the right direction, the rest is money management, 90 pips enough, make it simple Mate ..... here my trades in M5 TF (like your chart), but my entry based on higher TF, just put it in your perpective ... Happy trading {image}
while i don t disagree, my money management prohibits me to take trades with SL more then 20 pips,(except for Gold ofc) in order to have a good risk reward. i don t tend to hold overnight into Asia or over the weekend and i trade with a SL. moreover, i ve taken losses which if i had stuck with my entry plan wouldn t have occured, so now i m at a point where i value quality over quantity. i have very few losses nowadays, but i take only best looking setups with clear background, imbalance. if i am to risk money i need to make sure i ve set the odds in my favor, then what happens happens. this week for instance i ve had only 1 trade so far on EC and i ve gotten out with+5R(a bit early cos i should ve waited for the high vol reaction first) and tuesday and yesterday no trades. plus yesterday was Fomc and from the experience gathered just by watching the charts unfold over the years specially during high impact news like that the odds of having a trade run are way scarce rather then just sitting there ranging in anticipation of the numbers to come out. i do not trade Nfp, Cpi, Fomc. i m way past the point of pressing buy/sell button out of boredom. the cleaner the setup the better it is psichologicaly to take the loss if that occurs and move on. for me it s not about the amount of trades but it s the quality of the so called signal and beeing able to scale that. cheers
  • #36,034
  • May 4, 2023 4:07am May 4, 2023 4:07am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} while i don t disagree, my money management prohibits me to take trades with SL more then 20 pips,(except for Gold ofc) in order to have a good risk reward. i don t tend to hold overnight into Asia or over the weekend and i trade with a SL. moreover, i ve taken losses which if i had stuck with my entry plan wouldn t have occured, so now i m at a point where i value quality over quantity. i have very few losses nowadays, but i take only best looking setups with clear background, imbalance. if i am to risk money i need to make sure i ve set...
yes, agree to be on the winner side in long run just take the best setup to trade
  • #36,035
  • May 4, 2023 9:38pm May 4, 2023 9:38pm
Anyone wanna share their views on the markets. I feel like Nasdaq is leading the S&P nowadays w/ tech (specifically semiconductors) leading the charge:
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  • #36,036
  • May 5, 2023 4:48am May 5, 2023 4:48am
Quoting Macallik
Anyone wanna share their views on the markets. I feel like Nasdaq is leading the S&P nowadays w/ tech (specifically semiconductors) leading the charge: {image}
i for 1 can t really draw any conclusion based on those daily volumes. there s nothing that stands out. i look at daily for areas of SR and to see overall direction.but to determine background i use the hrly chart.
  • #36,037
  • May 5, 2023 8:54am May 5, 2023 8:54am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Friday after NFP NU hrly.png Size: 26 KB

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Click to Enlarge Name: Friday after NFP NU 5m entry NS confirmed.png Size: 20 KB
  • #36,038
  • May 5, 2023 10:23pm May 5, 2023 10:23pm
My view for NZD/USD (H1 and D1) but off course it could be wrong ... i rarely trade NZD/USD because of lower volatility compare to others and lower liquidity so its not so interesting for me to trade this pair but its just my personal view and if you know this pair well just go ahead ...

Happy weekend
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  • #36,039
  • May 6, 2023 1:51am May 6, 2023 1:51am
Quoting Macallik
Anyone wanna share their views on the markets. I feel like Nasdaq is leading the S&P nowadays w/ tech (specifically semiconductors) leading the charge: {image}
i have a good idea about the next movement but i think i will let other do it for you ....

happy weekend
  • #36,040
  • May 6, 2023 7:34am May 6, 2023 7:34am
Quoting Cyberforex
My view for NZD/USD (H1 and D1) but off course it could be wrong ... i rarely trade NZD/USD because of lower volatility compare to others and lower liquidity so its not so interesting for me to trade this pair but its just my personal view and if you know this pair well just go ahead ... Happy weekend {image} {image}
i choose NU cos it just looked better then AU at that time, also my SL was smaller then if i had went long on AU. i rather not get into liquidity and volatility cos my view might not be what the usual consensus is. but lower volatility means also lower SLs. and as long as the spread is small then that is a good enough liquid pair to trade. as for the daily chart, u should look at the fundamentals if u wanna know the long term trend for a certain pair. i m a day trader so i m more concerned with the intermediate data that affects a pair and the shorter term view rather then shooting for hundreds of pips. cheers
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