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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #2,121
  • Mar 27, 2023 7:17am Mar 27, 2023 7:17am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Indices are a different creature in their make up. The SP500 is one of the cleanest instruments you will encounter. It is a challenge. I have almost got it tamed.
Just looked at the SP500 chart, the dip during London Open, dipped right into previous buying pressure 24th March @ 20:15 GMT, the large Bull Candle that broke previous High of the same day around 3965.2

There was a warning from MACD to this drop with divergence signal.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,122
  • Mar 27, 2023 7:45am Mar 27, 2023 7:45am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} The only reason why I don't trade indices is that there aren't 2 parties to the party. You are trying to work out strength between SP500 shares vs Dollar. Saying that though, Market structure works just the same on any pair. I think specialising on certain pairs only, means that you concentrate better and don't miss moves., as TT does with GJ only. All the best with your trading.
There is correlation between the S&P and USD pairs, sometimes they are positively correlated, other times inversely correlated. I have yet to figure out why, I think understanding capital flows and perhaps taking a deep dive into the bond market will help. There is always more to learn.

I agree with keeping the number of pairs to watch to a minimum. I helps hone you in and keep your focus. I get side tracked too easily when I try to watch too many pairs, and often take my eye off the ball. :/ I pruned my list last night, so only watching EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY (my favorite pair).
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #2,123
  • Mar 27, 2023 7:58am Mar 27, 2023 7:58am
Quoting Butters
{quote} There is correlation between the S&P and USD pairs, sometimes they are positively correlated, other times inversely correlated. I have yet to figure out why, I think understanding capital flows and perhaps taking a deep dive into the bond market will help. There is always more to learn. I agree with keeping the number of pairs to watch to a minimum. I helps hone you in and keep your focus. I get side tracked too easily when I try to watch too many pairs, and often take my eye off the ball. :/ I pruned my list last night, so only watching...
With Low interest rates and all the quantitive easing ( printing dollars ) going on, the banks rather than lendin the money out to businesses have gone on
to plough this "free money" into stocks to make a better short term return. So boosting these indices somewhat.

But with inflation, these profits are dwindling, so major corrections come in as these guys sell off & come back in when prices have fallen enough.
I took a look on the monthly charts and I see Feb 2020 & Jan 2022 as major corrections, after which the SP500 took off again. Some buying has come back again since October 22, but structure wise, it coulld still go either way. Price is supported @3812.2
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,124
  • Mar 27, 2023 9:43am Mar 27, 2023 9:43am
Quoting Butters
{quote} There is correlation between the S&P and USD pairs, sometimes they are positively correlated, other times inversely correlated. I have yet to figure out why, I think understanding capital flows and perhaps taking a deep dive into the bond market will help. There is always more to learn. I agree with keeping the number of pairs to watch to a minimum. I helps hone you in and keep your focus. I get side tracked too easily when I try to watch too many pairs, and often take my eye off the ball. :/ I pruned my list last night, so only watching...
There is correlation. GBP and Euro tend to run with equities and JPY tends to run against. For me it is not enough to make it worth bothering with.

I consider EG a scalping pair. The moves are much smaller. It does pay the best per pip.

This method works well with Yen pairs.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,125
  • Mar 27, 2023 9:47am Mar 27, 2023 9:47am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} With Low interest rates and all the quantitive easing ( printing dollars ) going on, the banks rather than lendin the money out to businesses have gone on to plough this "free money" into stocks to make a better short term return. So boosting these indices somewhat. But with inflation, these profits are dwindling, so major corrections come in as these guys sell off & come back in when prices have fallen enough. I took a look on the monthly charts and I see Feb 2020 & Jan 2022 as major corrections, after which the SP500 took off again. Some...
Stocks are the Big Casino and equities traders love cheap money. The halt rules in equities markets prove this. Unlimited upside, controlled downside.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,126
  • Mar 27, 2023 11:02am Mar 27, 2023 11:02am
Quoting spzd
If the rest of the morning shapes up like the first 30 minutes this could be a nice smooth cycle day. {image}
And of course it did not trade that way.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,127
  • Mar 28, 2023 5:00am Mar 28, 2023 5:00am
Tre Cime di Lavaredo, Dolomites, Italy

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,128
  • Mar 28, 2023 6:27am Mar 28, 2023 6:27am
Did a few minor tweaks. I have virtually eliminated any reference to the M5. I was focusing on the M5 due to my issues of the M1. I think that issue has been solved. Now it is the M15 moves inside the H1 entered off the M1. With a few other things thrown in.

M15

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M1

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,129
  • Mar 28, 2023 6:32am Mar 28, 2023 6:32am
I found this YouTube video last night. He's a SB style trader. I'm watching it this morning.

Inserted Video
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #2,130
  • Mar 28, 2023 6:33am Mar 28, 2023 6:33am
MES M15

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M1

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,131
  • Mar 28, 2023 6:39am Mar 28, 2023 6:39am
Quoting Butters
I found this YouTube video last night. He's a SB style trader. I'm watching it this morning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_JcCHovF1E
He explains the Burke method quite well. I recommend watching his stuff.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,132
  • Mar 28, 2023 7:31am Mar 28, 2023 7:31am
I found this indicator to mark off the previous week's high/low if anyone wants it. I was doing it manually but this is easier.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 common_sr.mq4   19 KB | 185 downloads
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #2,133
  • Mar 28, 2023 8:06am Mar 28, 2023 8:06am
Quoting Butters
I found this indicator to mark off the previous week's high/low if anyone wants it. I was doing it manually but this is easier. {file}
I will go through my mt4 and see what indis I can share that goes with all that is done here. Will do the same for mt5. Some come off the meta-quotes market still free.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,134
  • Mar 28, 2023 8:47am Mar 28, 2023 8:47am
The markets tell me it is lunch time.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,135
  • Mar 28, 2023 8:57am Mar 28, 2023 8:57am
One thing that will possibly help people is the reality that certain pairs and markets (gold, oil, equities) have consistent chances of a move during certain time windows.

Bad news for those who think it futile to look at past data. Yeah that's where I got that.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,136
  • Mar 28, 2023 9:12am Mar 28, 2023 9:12am
Quoting spzd
One thing that will possibly help people is the reality that certain pairs and markets (gold, oil, equities) have consistent chances of a move during certain time windows. Bad news for those who think it futile to look at past data. Yeah that's where I got that.
Sadly, the times vary. Good part, find the general time periods then use whatever you use to make some p.

An example is the GBP_JPY. During the Asian session there are usually 1 to 3 moves that I consider worth trading. I base my sessions off the opening of stock markets.

Asia = TSE - Tokyo Stock Exchange - 0900 to 1130 then 1230 to 1500 Tokyo time (this time never changes as Japan does not use DST [good for them])
London = LSE - London Stock Exchange - 0800 to 1630 London time
New York = NYSE - New York Stock Exchange - 0930 to 1600 New York time

According to Burke the first three hours of each session make up The sessions. His reasoning, get in, get a trade, get gone. Sound reasoning.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,137
  • Mar 28, 2023 9:24am Mar 28, 2023 9:24am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Sadly, the times vary. Good part, find the general time periods then use whatever you use to make some p. An example is the GBP_JPY. During the Asian session there are usually 1 to 3 moves that I consider worth trading. I base my sessions off the opening of stock markets. Asia = TSE - Tokyo Stock Exchange - 0900 to 1130 then 1230 to 1500 Tokyo time (this time never changes as Japan does not use DST [good for them]) London = LSE - London Stock Exchange - 0800 to 1630 London time New York = NYSE - New York Stock Exchange - 0930 to 1600 New...
Those Asian moves on the G-J.

Before the session start and after (at least for me) spreads return to normal. Last night that move started about 1845 NY .

Sometimes there is a mid-session move or you can catch a grinder coming out of the that Asian box. My Asian session box ends at Tokyo lunch start.

Then there is the after lunch move that can take you into Frankfurt/London if you trade then. This move is sometimes a two-parter.

Take your fave pair or instrument and study the timings of that instrument. You just may find you can save time and money by adjusting when/how you trade.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,138
  • Mar 28, 2023 9:28am Mar 28, 2023 9:28am
Did you know that the market capitalization of the NYSE and Nasdaq is some 43.5 Trillion$.

Any time a regulation is made or a law is enacted, consider the favors in that law that go ^^^^^
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,139
  • Mar 28, 2023 9:36am Mar 28, 2023 9:36am
An important thing to learn - and it can't be taught, you just learning through lots of observation - is to tell when price may be moving into some type of consolidation.

An example of this was when I said the markets are telling me it's lunch time. Look at the GJ.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,140
  • Mar 28, 2023 9:39am Mar 28, 2023 9:39am
There is no secret sauce. There is no mystical Intent of the H4. The markets do the same thing all the time. What differs is the time they do it and the direction they have decided to take it. Our job is to figure that out.


Lots of chart time.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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