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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #81
  • May 2, 2007 2:22am May 2, 2007 2:22am
Since everyone's posting charts, I thought I'd try one, too

One of many perspectives (my main chart looks quite different again..)
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #82
  • Edited 2:35am May 2, 2007 2:24am | Edited 2:35am
Let me show you what I mean - this one here is more plausible, as it has more "touches" and conforms better to the actual price reactions.

We'd just now be falling back inside the channel again.

BTW, question for Jacko:

Where would you in this case put long orders, at which 50% fib(of which swing)? At which TL?

You don't need to tell me / us ahead of time(I trade my own wickedness, no worries hehe), I'd just like to know at some point so I can understand how you look at the chart.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #83
  • May 2, 2007 10:21am May 2, 2007 10:21am
Jacko,
how do you exit a trade?I know you use a 50 pips trailing. Do you use also profit targets?

thanks and happy trading
  • #84
  • May 2, 2007 11:02am May 2, 2007 11:02am
ok here's my 2 cent chart. Going by Jacko's very wise words I see this as a short down to 1.100. Good trend, and seems the market really really wants the nice round number.
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TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #85
  • May 2, 2007 12:57pm May 2, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting hilmy83
hey Jacko

can i ask you what's the largest drawdown you ever experienced using your technique?
Hi hilmy,

You really don't want to know.....

It is all relative...I trade large lots so my drawdowns (as a percentage of earnings) were initially a bit scary. (However, the drawdowns are now seriously limited by the anti-hedge limits).

In an attempt to put it into context the following is a summary of the growth of my accounts over time (as documented in the live-trade / live-time thread at DailyFX)

http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/showthread.php?t=2373&highlight=leveraged+trading

The following was posted on 02-28-2006 (Post 1846):

Quote
...I went profitable on my first couple of trades and therefore was using my earnings as the funds...after the first two trades, my initial balance has been basically untouched. The point I am trying to say is that a huge account balance isn't really necessary....
The whole fundamental point or advantage of this business is Leverage.

The following was posted on 03-07-2006 (Post 2851):

Quote
As can be seen from my trading history that has been published real-time here on this thread, I was $30,000 in profit last month...this month (at the current price of 1920), I am $8,800 in profit (plus my off record trade is $13,000 in profit).

I realise that my trades look big... but I have yet to touch my original starting capital....

Again, I appreciate your comments and I do realise that I am trading a bit bigger than some others here, but I started this thread as a document for me to keep track of my emotions and feelings (along with everyone else in the Bar) and see how it went...

I also agree that I have moved up my positions agressively...from 5 lots...to 9 lots...to 20 lots...to 30 lots, all within a six week period....I will be slowing down on the growth rate of my positions in the future.

To date, I have been very happy (with the exception of some Twinkies who always try to hijack this Board and other Boards with inane discussions about nothing of relevance to trading) regarding the value of this Forum as a trading diary for me....And I have really appreciated the discussions and camaraderie amongst other traders such as yourself


The following was posted on 03-23-2006 (Post 4474):

Quote
I am pretty happy with progress so far...I think I have been fortunate that my first couple of trades were profitable so I had the advantage of firstly, an initial confidence boost and secondly, I was always playing with the markets money after that...I have barely touched my initial capital and that was only in the first three trades, I think...

My drawdowns have been a bit scary at times, but again I have always been playing with the markets money so I was a little more gutsy than I would have been if they they had been my first trades (and therefore my own money)...

My maximum drawdown has been around the $22K, but at that stage I was $30K in profit so I was still playing with the markets money, and then the market came all the way back and I was then in profit...

I am now comfortable with playing at the 20 lots level...I think I will play at that size for a while until I make a bit more money...then I might move up to 30 lots...hmmm...see how I go...

John G, I respect your experience...I would appreciate any pointers as to how to improve my trading... I have one small idea that I am thinking of using to stop any large drawdowns but I am going to practice it in another currency pair to check it first. (NOTE: This actually was start of the "anti-hedging" strategy)


The following was posted on 04-06-2006 (Post 6498):

Quote
Since I have been recording my trades here on 2/2/06 (just over two months), I have made a strong six figure income ($188K) ...with minimal ($3000) drawdown on my original account (which occurred on my third trade here) and a maximum drawdown of around $22,000 (which at that stage I was already $30K in profit)...so I was playing with the "casinos" money . I have been tempted to even show my trading statements but I don't know how to scan documents into a computer. Besides, its all here in the thread anyway...

In answer to your question, i use the barest of Technical tools...minimal numbers of Support and Resistance lines, the 50% Fib retracement rule and the natuaral "clustering of trades around the "round numbers" (eg 2100...2200..etc).

I guess that after I have a feel for those things, I then use what you have called intuition....if something is looking "stretched" or "extreme", then commonsense kicks in...it shouldn't happen unless there is a very clear reason for it

Also I have a policy that everyone here knows ...which is to only trade with the trend...cos if you make a mistake, the trend will get you out of trouble.

The only other thing I can think of is that I think that , to date, I have been VERY lucky...

I hope that is of help...if you want to know anything else just ask...I try to be open about everything I do...my trading has been all done live time here and if I had tried to pull any tricks, these guys here on the thread would have nailed me to a wall.


The following was posted on 04-12-2006 (Post 7089):

Quote
All my trades are documented in this thread... I am more than happy for you to do an independant audit...

My trading strategy hasn't changed...only the size of my trades as I became more confident (and profitable). i trade in $100,000 units and my trades went from 2 lots to 5 lots to 10 lots to 20 lots fairly quickly. I now trade in 50 lots (for first trade) and then will add a 20 lot.

I did start with a large (six figure) starting balance, but I have only gone into my capital to the maximum of $3000, primarily due to being profitable in my initial trades...Please feel free to go back through this thread and verify all this

As to "over leveraging", I am currently almost $200K in the black...even if I was wrong with a 50 lot trade, I would have to be wrong by 400 pips on each of those 50 lotsto just get back to zero profit...and I would NEVER let a trade go 400 pips against me.

But as I said, please feel free to go back through this thread, conduct a thorough audit and verify all this



The following was posted on 04-27-2006 (Post 11415):
Quote

I just passed the $500,000 profit mark about 30 minutes ago...


The following was posted on 07-24-2006 (Post 15544):

Quote
I funded my original accounts with six figure balances (around $300K).
BUT....the interesting thing is that the maximum amount of my account that I used was only around $3k.

If you go back to the start of this thread, you can read it all...I started small with only 2 standard lots and was very lucky...they were winners...then I simply escalated my trading up using the "markets" money. I quickly leveraged up my trading using my "earnings."

More importantly, I have done exactly what all the books on trading say to do...I don't have any special "system"...if anything, I think that everyone leans on complex indicators too much as a crutch.

NOTHING I DO IS DIFFERENT FROM WHAT ALL THE TRADING BOOKS SAY TO DO.

Anyone who says that you cannot make a million dollars in this "business" in your first year, simply doesn't know what they are talking about.

.
  • #86
  • May 2, 2007 1:01pm May 2, 2007 1:01pm
Quoting canados
Jacko,
how do you exit a trade?I know you use a 50 pips trailing. Do you use also profit targets?

thanks and happy trading

how do you exit a trade?I know you use a 50 pips trailing. Yes

Do you use also profit targets? No


.
  • #87
  • May 2, 2007 1:20pm May 2, 2007 1:20pm
Hi Jacko,

I just wanted to give my applause to your trading and you as a person.

I don't know you, but reading a lot of your postings (and also the thread from the FF guy who visited you), gives a strong impression of a brilliant trader, who takes it all down to "basics".

A SUPER motivation for all readers/traders here at the Factory .





Quoting jacko
Hi hilmy,

You really don't want to know.....

It is all relative...I trade large lots so my drawdowns (as a percentage of earnings) were initially a bit scary. (However, the drawdowns are now seriously limited by the anti-hedge limits).

In an attempt to put it into context the following is a summary of the growth of my accounts over time (as documented in the live-trade / live-time thread at DailyFX)

http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/showthread.php?t=2373&highlight=leveraged+trading

The following was posted on 02-28-2006 (Post 1846):



The following was posted on 03-07-2006 (Post 2851):




The following was posted on 03-23-2006 (Post 4474):




The following was posted on 04-06-2006 (Post 6498):




The following was posted on 04-12-2006 (Post 7089):





The following was posted on 04-27-2006 (Post 11415):



The following was posted on 07-24-2006 (Post 15544):



.
Less is more...
  • #88
  • May 2, 2007 3:38pm May 2, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting Snuffleupagus
I wouldn't normally trade against the trend. However, I will be playing the break of this TL that has been working as s/r. Hope I am not....."wwwwrong".
I always loved TLs on long TFs, especially near good confluence and support areas... however trading against main trend, almost always costs me dearly.
(with one exception in gpb/jpy)

Thank you Jacko for sharing your "way". It sure made me rethink my own trading.

R
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  • #89
  • May 3, 2007 12:00am May 3, 2007 12:00am
Thanks jacko, this is what a lot of people on this forum need.
  • #90
  • May 3, 2007 12:47am May 3, 2007 12:47am
Quoting luqmanz
Thanks jacko, this is what a lot of people on this forum need.
Hey Jacko,

Great to hear from you the other nite. you are doing a great job here.keep it up
  • #91
  • May 3, 2007 5:26pm May 3, 2007 5:26pm
when using round numbers, fib 50%, and long bias with current down retracement, I've come up with 1.3500 for another buy order.

I put buy limit order to see what will happen.

Q to Jacko
1. How fundamental affects you, what kind of news you followed ?
Not necessarily news like in calendar of FF, but other news as well

2. Do you subscribe/read to long-term investment mail and believe they will be defining next trend or current trend ?
  • #92
  • May 4, 2007 5:10am May 4, 2007 5:10am
When looking at the EUR/USD you might take note of a possible double top the shows up on the weekly chart, and better on the monthly chart. Previous top was in September 2006.

I have not noticed this being mentioned before.
  • #93
  • May 4, 2007 5:26am May 4, 2007 5:26am
Hi Watcher,

I think the nearest important levels in EurUsd are:
1,3656 (12/2004)
1,3469 (03/2005)
1,3368 (12/2006)

So you can see a double top at 1,3656.

I have a stop buy @1,3500 and @ 1,3450 with SL50. If 1,3400 is hit IŽll revise my bullish theory.

Jacko:

When did you realised the last transition from bearish to bullish and how did you do it?

Thanks Jacko for everything and good trades to everyone,

J Fonseca
  • #94
  • May 5, 2007 1:03am May 5, 2007 1:03am
Hi Jacko,

I am the newest of newbies in this game so apologies if my question seems ignorant, but I am very interested in your alternative hedging strategy. Can I ask you if you had been stopped out at a point which had become a strong resistance/support area would you still place your new order there or would you adjust it to accomodate the S/R area
  • #95
  • May 5, 2007 4:42am May 5, 2007 4:42am
The morning before NFP, I entered a Long EURUSD market order at 3549 because the price touched a support level (3550-ish).
Before NFP, I moved the SL to break-even.
Because of NFP, I got kicked-out before the price actually moved up since NFP result was weaker USD.
Since my initial bet was right and I got kicked out because of "noise", I currently have a limit Long order EURUSD at 1.3610.
Currently the short term fundamental (NFP) and technical (a bounce off a support level) is very positive towards a Long position.

Just wanna share my plan for Monday.
  • #96
  • Edited 11:47pm May 5, 2007 4:54pm | Edited 11:47pm
luqmanz
Member

Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 263

The morning before NFP, I entered a Long EURUSD market order at 3549 because the price touched a support level (3550-ish).
Before NFP, I moved the SL to break-even.
Because of NFP, I got kicked-out before the price actually moved up since NFP result was weaker USD.
Since my initial bet was right and I got kicked out because of "noise", I currently have a limit Long order EURUSD at 1.3610.
Currently the short term fundamental (NFP) and technical (a bounce off a support level) is very positive towards a Long position.

Just wanna share my plan for Monday.
__________________
I trade like a sniper, I wait.

I decided to set a stradle see if I can catch a few pip on the next move...

http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/8...enshot2aa2.png

http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/3...enshot3ka5.png
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #97
  • May 6, 2007 7:52am May 6, 2007 7:52am
Hi Jacko!


Thanks a lot for your great posts and advice! I follow your thread with a great interest.
I have a couple of questions.

First one on your anti-hedging strategy. Does it often happen that price goes to your stop-loss, touches it and then goes back? What do you do in this case? Just buy more as soon as price goes back up to where it was, same amount?

And another question on your money management, could you please share, what % of your account you risk at a single trade and what leverage do you normally use?

Thanks again for your help!!!
  • #98
  • May 6, 2007 8:14am May 6, 2007 8:14am
Quoting JFonseca
Hi Watcher,

I think the nearest important levels in EurUsd are:
1,3656 (12/2004)
1,3469 (03/2005)
1,3368 (12/2006)

So you can see a double top at 1,3656.

I have a stop buy @1,3500 and @ 1,3450 with SL50. If 1,3400 is hit IŽll revise my bullish theory.

Jacko:

When did you realised the last transition from bearish to bullish and how did you do it?

Thanks Jacko for everything and good trades to everyone,

J Fonseca
Hi JFonseca

As you probably know, I can't post a chart here to save my life, but:

1. if you bring up a weekly chart of the Eur/USD. (Isotonic or Newbie...can you do this for me?)
2. Then draw a line from the top of 3-14-2005 to 9-05-2005
3. That bearish trend line was broken in Jan 2006 and confirmed by trend line becoming support line in mid February 2006.
4. After that it was becoming obvious that trend had changed. Just a matter of getting onboard the Northern Express for a couple of years.
5. Due to length of time that Euro tends to trend, I made a decision to really ramp up the trading in volume, so I moved from 2 standard $100k contracts to 5 to 10 to 20 to 50 to more, using profits from trades.

.
  • #99
  • Edited 8:52am May 6, 2007 8:24am | Edited 8:52am
Here ya go
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  • #100
  • May 6, 2007 8:29am May 6, 2007 8:29am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hey Iso.

Yea, I've also shorted, but yesterday, due to a 1h BEOB after the news blast.
I'm starting to worry that 1.3545 may have been the place to TP / exit for now and wait for the bounce to ebb...

Also, I read today that a lot of folks are going short pre-NFP. This pretty much turns on sirens and red alerts for me.
If the "public" side is thinking stronger NFP / shorting EURUSD, you've a pretty good bet the EURUSD is going to shoot up like a rocket.

I can also line you up an ABC correction end at 1.3535 - apologies to jacko, who thinks Elliot is BS - which would mean that if this low holds, all we'll be seeing is a rise. If it goes of course, we move on a bit..

Personally, especially with cable, I favor pro USD still(also believe AUDUSD and Kiwi should drop) as EURUSD made a bearish engulfing candle/BEOB yesterday...but things have been ugly and messy.

Today's the big "all bets are off - let's hope your positions are, too" day

Hi SeekingLight,

Good target hit.

PS I don't think Elliott Wave is B.S. ....I have never said that....what I have said (repeatedly) is that:
" Elliott Wave Theory has never been a "sufficiently reliable" model to generate consistent profits from predicted entry point or exit points"

Consequently I would never trade off Elliott Wave Theory.


.
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