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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #101
  • Edited 8:57am May 6, 2007 8:30am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting willf
Here ya go

Thanks willf.

Can you put another one underneath that one , but start date at mid 2004. Please put into the post above

Thanks again, willf

.
  • #102
  • May 6, 2007 9:28am May 6, 2007 9:28am
Quoting jacko
Hi JFonseca

As you probably know, I can't post a chart here to save my life, but:

1. if you bring up a weekly chart of the Eur/USD. (Isotonic or Newbie...can you do this for me?)
2. Then draw a line from the top of 3-14-2005 to 9-05-2005
3. That bearish trend line was broken in Jan 2006 and confirmed by trend line becoming support line in mid February 2006.
4. After that it was becoming obvious that trend had changed. Just a matter of getting onboard the Northern Express for a couple of years.
5. Due to length of time that Euro tends to trend, I made a decision to really ramp up the trading in volume, so I moved from 2 standard $100k contracts to 5 to 10 to 20 to 50 to more, using profits from trades.

.
Are you still on the Northern Express?
And in a big way?
TEB
  • #103
  • May 6, 2007 9:42am May 6, 2007 9:42am
Quoting TEB63
Are you still on the Northern Express?
And in a big way?
TEB
Hi TEB63

I am in and out of the Northern Express...and I don't get on the Southern track.

In a big way is relative...but yes, it could be said that I am currently trading in a big way (for me).

.
  • #104
  • May 6, 2007 12:53pm May 6, 2007 12:53pm
here it is on the monthly chart (shaded area).

Quoting jacko
Hi JFonseca

As you probably know, I can't post a chart here to save my life, but:

1. if you bring up a weekly chart of the Eur/USD. (Isotonic or Newbie...can you do this for me?)
2. Then draw a line from the top of 3-14-2005 to 9-05-2005
3. That bearish trend line was broken in Jan 2006 and confirmed by trend line becoming support line in mid February 2006.
4. After that it was becoming obvious that trend had changed. Just a matter of getting onboard the Northern Express for a couple of years.
5. Due to length of time that Euro tends to trend, I made a decision to really ramp up the trading in volume, so I moved from 2 standard $100k contracts to 5 to 10 to 20 to 50 to more, using profits from trades.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #105
  • May 6, 2007 12:56pm May 6, 2007 12:56pm
sorry about that, you wanted weekly


Quoting jacko
Hi JFonseca

As you probably know, I can't post a chart here to save my life, but:

1. if you bring up a weekly chart of the Eur/USD. (Isotonic or Newbie...can you do this for me?)
2. Then draw a line from the top of 3-14-2005 to 9-05-2005
3. That bearish trend line was broken in Jan 2006 and confirmed by trend line becoming support line in mid February 2006.
4. After that it was becoming obvious that trend had changed. Just a matter of getting onboard the Northern Express for a couple of years.
5. Due to length of time that Euro tends to trend, I made a decision to really ramp up the trading in volume, so I moved from 2 standard $100k contracts to 5 to 10 to 20 to 50 to more, using profits from trades.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #106
  • May 6, 2007 1:35pm May 6, 2007 1:35pm
Hi Jacko,

I think this system is so brilliantly simple

Just a couple of questions though.

Firstly, if you have to use your anti-hedging technique but the price drops away for a period of time what do you do?

Lets say you enter long at 1.3600 with a trailing stop of 50. The market suddenly retraces and you are stopped out at 1.3550. The market continues down and at 1.3500 you enter a buy stop for 1.3550 which would put you back in the market where you were stopped out. However the pair continues to fall 200 more pips.

Would you continue to hold the buy stop for such a period of time, say 30 days? Or would you just write it off as a loss?

Secondly, do you take one trade at a time or as the price reaches a round number do you take out another position. Say you are long 1.3000 and prices reaches 1.3100. Would you stick with your original trade or take another trade at 1.3100?
  • #107
  • May 6, 2007 5:03pm May 6, 2007 5:03pm
Eh-hem...

Anti-hedging is gambling under another name. Suppose you follow the instructions and -BLOOP- the market reverses again after your second trade. You stand to re-enter repeatedly, hitting stops time and time again.

In fact, the market may never come back down (or up) to your original entry.

Jacko, I don't care what people are saying about how "great" your anti-hedging is... let's paint it with real world light.

-T
  • #108
  • May 6, 2007 5:25pm May 6, 2007 5:25pm
I have been looking at that with some curiosity as well....given that the daily average fluctuation of the EUR/USD is around 90 pip +/- it seems your trailing stop is hit with little or no gain on a regular basis.....maybe I am looking at this wrong and please correct my error if I am.....but something just isn't clear to me yet...... just tring to gain some clairity here.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #109
  • May 6, 2007 5:44pm May 6, 2007 5:44pm
Quoting johnedoe
I have been looking at that with some curiosity as well....given that the daily average fluctuation of the EUR/USD is around 90 pip +/- it seems your trailing stop is hit with little or no gain on a regular basis.....maybe I am looking at this wrong and please correct my error if I am.....but something just isn't clear to me yet...... just tring to gain some clairity here.
At first I had the same thought. But having spent a lot of the weekend backtesting it would appear to work out.

It works out because of one thing. You were following the trend.

The only downside I see is if you get a large retracement you could be left waiting several weeks for your buy stop to get picked up again and there is the possibility of your buy stop being triggered and then stopped out again.

All in all though he's doing what every book says. Following the trend, cutting his losses short.
  • #110
  • Edited 6:07pm May 6, 2007 5:55pm | Edited 6:07pm
Hi Jacko,

Thanks again for your teachings and your reply.

I´m trying to figure out when and why do you decide that the trend has changed. If you check this chart, you can see a red line and 2 blue lines. The red line is the one you told me to draw, and where we can see a very bullish candle violating this trendline but, why didn´t you decided this when the first blue trendline was violated, or the second one?
And when you started to see the EURUSD dropping again (the second red Line) how did you play it? Weren´t you afraid that the southern express was moving again?

http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s...f?t=1178491862
Attached Image


In the last bear move, 17 of the 41 weekly candles were bullish. And there were a set of 6 consecutive bulllish weeks. How do you trade in these situations?

In this actual uptrend, between May and Octobre 2006 the weeekly candles were ranging (+- 500 PIPs range). How did you play this? With the same strategy?

http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s...f?t=1178492037
Attached Image


Sorry to ask so many questions, but I really want to succed in this forex jungle, so I need to learn from who has already achieved what I´m looking for, and you´re one of those traders.

Thanks for everything,

J Fonseca
PS: I´m long EURUSD @1,3582, long GBPUSD @1,9910 and short USDCAD @1,1051
  • #111
  • May 6, 2007 7:03pm May 6, 2007 7:03pm
I maybe wrong but this is how I think Jacko decided.

Excuse the crude arrows :
Attached Image
  • #112
  • May 7, 2007 2:26am May 7, 2007 2:26am
trade with the trend - I think the phrase 'couldn't see the wood for the trees' applies here.

I like the anti-hedging thing too.

I suppose I'd explain it thus I may of course be completely wrong.

If you are following the trend and your overall strategy is successful, that would indicate that in terms of expectancy any trade you place is a 'good' one even if it fails.

if the trade goes against you for some time and you re-input your losing trade from the position of the stoploss then it holds numerous advantages.

Firstly it is in the direction of the long term trend

secondly, the market will most definitely be moving in the right direction once the trade is opened.

Thirdly, if the system you used to first input the trade is satisfactory overall, there is no reason why that position should hold any greater threat of failure a second time.

As I understand it Jacko's system looks to enter the market on pullbacks to trendlines at a confluence of round numbers and/or the 50% fib as these are relatively probable swing points back in favour of the overall trend. I'm not sure, but I understand that such points have far more relevance in a retracing market than a trending one.

If that is true it follows that any position placed at these levels in a trending market has a statistically greater chance of breaking through than it has of reversing, since it is no longer a high probability technical level.


if a second trade goes against you, then presumeably it will have formed a short/medium term top at or around your entry point and as such a third go at it might be inadviseable (am unsure as to what Jacko would do, but this seems logical).
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
  • #113
  • May 7, 2007 2:59am May 7, 2007 2:59am
Quoting jacko
Hi canados

You are correct. The anti-hedging is VERY important to my trading.

As long as I have the major trend direction correct, I cannot lose money. If I make a mistake in the short term, because of a minor retracement, then I know that I will get ALL those losses back when the market resumes its primary, dominant direction. The ONLY way to get hurt is to be wwwwwwrong on the primary trend.

As a result, I have become VERY confident in my trading.

.

Dudes,
I have been reading all the comments on the last set of pages. you need to look at what jacko said above. the only way his method can get into trouble is if he he wrong on the major trend. If you don't understand that then you don't understand his method.
  • #114
  • Edited 8:49am May 7, 2007 8:37am | Edited 8:49am
Hi willf,

See below for answers

Quoting willf
At first I had the same thought. But having spent a lot of the weekend backtesting it would appear to work out.

It works out because of one thing. You were following the trend. YES

The only downside I see is if you get a large retracement you could be left waiting several weeks for your buy stop to get picked up again YESand there is the possibility of your buy stop being triggered and then stopped out again.YES, but it must fall within the 50pip gap between the SL and the point at which you place the StopBuy. Also, you have a thing called "discretion"

All in all though he's doing what every book says. Following the trend, cutting his losses short.YES YES YES
  • #115
  • Edited 9:04am May 7, 2007 8:44am | Edited 9:04am
tdion

I wasn't going to answer this post because it has a "cynical" intent. However, the answers to the imprudent statements are below:


Quoting tdion
Eh-hem...

Anti-hedging is gambling under another name. Suppose you follow the instructions and -BLOOP- the market reverses again after your second trade. You stand to re-enter repeatedly, hitting stops time and time again. This will occur ONLY if the trend has reversed and you are fighting the trend

In fact, the market may never come back down (or up) to your original entry. This will occur ONLY if the trend has reversed and you are fighting the trend

Jacko, I don't care what people are saying about how "great" your anti-hedging is... let's paint it with real world light. Don't try to start a fight here

-T
  • #116
  • May 7, 2007 8:48am May 7, 2007 8:48am
Quoting willf
I maybe wrong but this is how I think Jacko decided.

Excuse the crude arrows :
Hi willf,

Close enough...

.
  • #117
  • May 7, 2007 8:55am May 7, 2007 8:55am
Quoting Gmak
trade with the trend - I think the phrase 'couldn't see the wood for the trees' applies here.

I like the anti-hedging thing too.

I suppose I'd explain it thus I may of course be completely wrong.

If you are following the trend and your overall strategy is successful, that would indicate that in terms of expectancy any trade you place is a 'good' one even if it fails.

if the trade goes against you for some time and you re-input your losing trade from the position of the stoploss then it holds numerous advantages.

Firstly it is in the direction of the long term trend

secondly, the market will most definitely be moving in the right direction once the trade is opened.

Thirdly, if the system you used to first input the trade is satisfactory overall, there is no reason why that position should hold any greater threat of failure a second time.

As I understand it Jacko's system looks to enter the market on pullbacks to trendlines at a confluence of round numbers and/or the 50% fib as these are relatively probable swing points back in favour of the overall trend. I'm not sure, but I understand that such points have far more relevance in a retracing market than a trending one.

If that is true it follows that any position placed at these levels in a trending market has a statistically greater chance of breaking through than it has of reversing, since it is no longer a high probability technical level.


if a second trade goes against you, then presumeably it will have formed a short/medium term top at or around your entry point and as such a third go at it might be inadviseable (am unsure as to what Jacko would do, but this seems logical).
Hi Gmak

A good summary...

.
  • #118
  • May 7, 2007 8:59am May 7, 2007 8:59am
Quoting newbietrader101
Dudes,
I have been reading all the comments on the last set of pages. you need to look at what jacko said above. the only way his method can get into trouble is if he he wrong on the major trend. If you don't understand that then you don't understand his method.
Hi newbie,

Its not that they don't understand it...its just that some have been too lazy to try to understand it...or they are just too cynical and don't want to understand it.

But I will say it again...

Quote
You are correct. The anti-hedging is VERY important to my trading.

As long as I have the major trend direction correct, I cannot lose money. If I make a mistake in the short term, because of a minor retracement, then I know that I will get ALL those losses back when the market resumes its primary, dominant direction. The ONLY way to get hurt is to be wwwwwwrong on the primary trend.

.
  • #119
  • May 7, 2007 9:17am May 7, 2007 9:17am
Rescuing people from the "Counter-Trend Trade Church" is an inglorious war.

Loving the thread... Keep it up...
  • #120
  • Edited 10:15am May 7, 2007 9:28am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting cesarnc
Rescuing people from the "Counter-Trend Trade Church" is an inglorious war.

Loving the thread... Keep it up...
Hi cesarnc

Thanks for the encouragement....

My wife has just read the last couple of posts that I wrote and has suggested that I just concentrate on my making my trades (and giving her lots of good loving...).

I think she was annoyed because she could see that I was little annoyed at the cynical post by tdion

It was actually because of her that I stopped posting on dailyFX, because she said that I was getting more hassled from the posting than from my trading...

.
.
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