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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,001
  • Feb 14, 2023 9:00pm Feb 14, 2023 9:00pm
Was an okay trade, nothing spectacular.

Yesterday was a CPI day, because of that this was only a 1/2 position.

Something that I haven't mentioned in a while and also it's kinda implied is that you want to see a down move behind your SOS. The reason why its implied is that you want to see the SOS into fresh new ground, but its still worth noting because any SOS in a range is really a 50/50 gamble I think.

You really want to see a no selling pressure bar with lower volume and to be honest I would've never considered this bar if it weren't for that bar I labeled Effort to move up. That effort bar is a shakeout type bar but I don't want to label it a strength bar due to its a relatively widespread up bar which is against VSA principles.

Once again a weak TP, but the trade was up 20+ pips before the news so it made sense/still makes sense to take the profit and run before big news release.
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  • #36,002
  • Feb 14, 2023 9:15pm Feb 14, 2023 9:15pm
Could be something going on ECad, but its still too early to do anything about it.

Up thrust on the highs, H1 confirming the weakness.

But... Its not ready to short yet, we are still seeing increasing volume on up bars which is a sign of bullish intent, as price approaches 1.4330 any up bars should be on decreasing volume, if we start seeing increased volume or even high volume up bars into that area its probably a good idea to walk away and not trade it.
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  • #36,003
  • Feb 14, 2023 11:39pm Feb 14, 2023 11:39pm
I was also looking at AJ for another long, but we are seeing high volume back into the lows which isn't good for higher prices. More than likely best to avoid any trades here.
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  • #36,004
  • Feb 15, 2023 1:30am Feb 15, 2023 1:30am
I'm done with ECad as well, you can see that widespread up bar that just printed that isn't healthy for bears.

Everything was looking good as price tried to approach 1.4330 on an up bar with decreasing volume. There was an low volume up bar that could've have been taken but it wasn't a great entry bar. Look at the previous few bars, the bars were making LLs and LHs, you want to short after an up move, not as price is falling. Shorting that low volume up bar, is what I believe they call chasing the market.

So far nothing else I want to trade, hopefully this gives an idea of my process for trading the right edge of the chart.
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  • #36,005
  • Feb 15, 2023 6:28am Feb 15, 2023 6:28am
Quoting Anotan
Watching AU tick, when it approached the area where the close of the No Selling pressure bar, price stopped ticking. It just stalled out at support, lets see if price will make a run to last Thursday's high of .7140 {image}

off topic. what does a low volume high spread imply ? does that mean the move has no support from smart money expecting a volume divergence ? or that mean there is little resistance in its path ( because it required less volume for that movement )
  • #36,006
  • Feb 15, 2023 7:43am Feb 15, 2023 7:43am
Quoting kapzEU
{quote} off topic. what does a low volume high spread imply ? does that mean the move has no support from smart money expecting a volume divergence ? or that mean there is little resistance in its path ( because it required less volume for that movement )
As a general rule widespread and low volume is lack of professional support.

The post that you're quoting is not 100% VSA, when I start talking about how fast price is ticking that is more along the lines of tape reading. In that instance price was at support and price just stopped moving for a few seconds, that was a dead give away that no orders were being filled and no interest in taking price lower.

Going back to VSA, when you see widespread spreads on low volume in fresh new low ground or price trying to push through previous support/resistance on low volume that is an indication that smart money is no longer supporting the move and may reverse directions. But obviously thats not enough to trade on, from there you're watching PA to confirm trend change as well looking at higher time frames to confirm that price is reversing directions.

There are also times when low volume is means no resistance and price will continue to follow the same path. During these times its unlikely that your higher time frame will show any signs that price maybe beginning to change directions. Actually today UCad is showing perfect example of this.

On this chart you see price pushing through a previous high (resistance) on low volume, this should be bearish. Go up to a H1 chart, the next bar closes up showing you that price is not weak, in fact you can see several up bars on low volume but price keeps pushing up. As of right now the path of least resistance is up.
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  • #36,007
  • Feb 15, 2023 7:57am Feb 15, 2023 7:57am
Quoting Anotan
I was also looking at AJ for another long, but we are seeing high volume back into the lows which isn't good for higher prices. More than likely best to avoid any trades here. {image}
Something that I've learned from Davit is; Bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered. What that means is when you find a direction stay with that direction, don't be a pig trying to play both directions.

AUDJPY earlier we saw high volume back down into previous strength which wasn't good for bulls, staying patient and watching for further signs of strength just paid off.
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  • #36,008
  • Feb 15, 2023 5:28pm Feb 15, 2023 5:28pm
Hi Anotan,

I have been watching a lot of videos on VSA and also looking at the right side of the chart.

They mention 2 things that I see you are using and that is why Im asking and need your help.

They mention to look for change of character like a wide spread up bar on high volume for longs or a wide spread wide bar for shorts. Basically that there is demand when going long or supply when going short or what they call a change of character or behaviour. This is from Gary Fullett and Gary Dayton

Now my question is which bars to look for, what I mean is that typical VSA compares the current bar with the previous bar if the spread is high or low. If we use classical definition we get bars all over the place.

Also they look at break of market structure to confirm the strength or weakness, do you look for anything similar. I see on your chart wide bars and you label them trend change but i do not see anything else in particular apart from being wider than average to confirm the trend change

thanks
kind regards
  • #36,009
  • Feb 15, 2023 8:47pm Feb 15, 2023 8:47pm
Quoting Frag8383
Hi Anotan, I have been watching a lot of videos on VSA and also looking at the right side of the chart. They mention 2 things that I see you are using and that is why Im asking and need your help. They mention to look for change of character like a wide spread up bar on high volume for longs or a wide spread wide bar for shorts. Basically that there is demand when going long or supply when going short or what they call a change of character or behaviour. This is from Gary Fullett and Gary Dayton Now my question is which bars to look for, what I...
Hey Frag,

Change of character is a Wyckoff term, which I know next to nothing about Wyckoff but that makes sense that its essentially increasing volume on up bars to show demand.

Before we talk about what bars to look for, lets talk about trend change. The trend change is the first thing I look for after I've seen the initial SoS that was into fresh new ground. The trend change is just Tom's simple trending system, consecutive up bars making HHs and HLs above the close of the initial SoS. If you've seen an initial SoS then a trend change and finally a higher timeframe confirming the strength thats when you know to start really paying attention to what is going on.

Now onto what bars too look for after the trend change and the confirmation on the higher timeframe. On your question you're really concentrating on wide spread bars but I think you're falling into a trap of you telling the market what it needs to do which never works out. Instead focus on what the market is showing you, with strength in the background are you seeing low volume down bars? Increasing volume on up bars? Bullish tests with the next bar up? Bearish tests with the next bar up? You aren't going to see all of these examples every time, some days you see price heavily testing, other days you won't see traditional tests (the narrow range/close in the middle on low volume) but you will see demand/lack of demand which will typically be wider spreads.

Try to look at these charts more with am I seeing bullish behavior after I've seen my initial SoS rather than specific bars. As always feel free to post charts if you have any questions about specific setups.

For example yesterday on that AJ trade, none of the up bars had increasing volume but once we saw that low volume down bar at the lows with the next bar closing well above the high of that low volume down bar. that was bullish behavior and a good indication that you wanted to be long.
  • #36,010
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:33am Feb 16, 2023 1:33am
So here is something that I haven't talked about that took me a long time to learn. If you have your initial SoS/SoW and you've seen a clear trend change but the higher timeframe doesn't confirm.. Walk away from the pair, look for something else to trade. If the higher timerframe doesn't confirm I stop looking at the pair for the rest of the day, the reason is because 1 of 3 scenarios will play out and the odds of getting it right is only 33%.

Scenario 1: Bad luck, assuming there is a weak background, the lower time frame could've driven price up in order to test for demand and inadvertently causes the H1 to close up. In this case price is still weak and will fall.

Scenario 2: The weakness was only temporary due to profit taking, price tests out the weakness and continues to climb.

Scenario 3: Price grinds sideways for whatever reason. Maybe there is more supply/demand in this particular area that smart money has to absorb which causes price to go no where.

Today AJ fell into this scenario where we are into fresh new high ground with a trend change, but hourly isn't confirming. Its not worth trading and Ill look to other pairs, hopefully tomorrow we see more weakness and if that is the case there could be potential for a nice drop.
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  • #36,011
  • Feb 16, 2023 7:54am Feb 16, 2023 7:54am
Lets play a game..

I'm in a trade and its not really hard to figure which direction but still..

Am I long or short?

Where is the initial SoS/SOW?

Where is the trend change?

Where is the higher timeframe confirmation?

What behavior do you see to that tells you to take a trade?
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  • #36,012
  • Feb 16, 2023 10:47am Feb 16, 2023 10:47am
Quoting Anotan
Lets play a game.. I'm in a trade and its not really hard to figure which direction but still.. Am I long or short? Where is the initial SoS/SOW? Where is the trend change? Where is the higher timeframe confirmation? What behavior do you see to that tells you to take a trade? {image}
Nice quiz, guess you're short on failure to come back to 2bar reversal 50%, short in one of the two test lows. It looked like bulls on the initial move up, pullback was low volume, hence it took some time today to absorb after 2bar reversal. And suck some buyers from h1 wicks.
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  • #36,013
  • Feb 16, 2023 4:37pm Feb 16, 2023 4:37pm
Quoting Gambis
{quote} Nice quiz, guess you're short on failure to come back to 2bar reversal 50%, short in one of the two test lows. It looked like bulls on the initial move up, pullback was low volume, hence it took some time today to absorb after 2bar reversal. And suck some buyers from h1 wicks. {image}
I agree with your analysis, 1hour rejection on high volume and the low of the rejection is broken on the next bar that confirms the rejection.

On the 15 m chart the first test is good to enter short for me even if looks early i would have enter there

Kind regards
  • #36,014
  • Feb 17, 2023 3:27am Feb 17, 2023 3:27am
Gambis nailed it perfectly, that wide spread 2 bar reversal plus how hard price came off after the first test.

EJ long today, straight forward trade especially when price returns to the close of the initial SoS on low volume.

Anyways I've been posting a lot lately so I'll give it a rest.
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  • #36,015
  • Feb 17, 2023 8:49am Feb 17, 2023 8:49am
We set up a VSA discord server.

I'm not sure what the FF policy is on posting discord links on threads? So to be safe just message me or Gambis if you're want the link, its open to anyone.
  • #36,016
  • Edited 4:54pm Feb 18, 2023 4:32pm | Edited 4:54pm
just for fun chit-chat with ChatGPT :
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  • #36,017
  • Feb 19, 2023 10:45am Feb 19, 2023 10:45am
Quoting Cyberforex
just for fun chit-chat with ChatGPT : {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Its funny: VSA uses spread analysis between bid and ask...
  • #36,018
  • Edited Feb 20, 2023 2:06am Feb 19, 2023 9:39pm | Edited Feb 20, 2023 2:06am
just for fun i let ChatGPT create a script for multiple entries, i already tried it and the execution is fast .... well done ChatGPT!!

I normaly use script FXPT_BuySellUnlimitedOrders (you can find it in forum) but i'm not satisfied with execution speed so i thought to let ChatGPT create this script and the result is amazing faster than FXPT!

all scripts made by ChatGPT :
1. Multiple Buy entries with TP and SL with MagicNr
2. Multiple Sell entries with TP and SL with MagicNr
3. Modify Buy Orders with different TP and SL with MagicNr
4. Modify Sell Orders with different TP and SL with MagicNr
5. Close All Orders with MagicNr
6. Close All Orders

Please check it first before using in real account.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 BuyOrders.mq4   2 KB | 291 downloads
File Type: mq4 SellOrders.mq4   2 KB | 267 downloads
File Type: mq4 ModAllBuyOrders.mq4   < 1 KB | 284 downloads
File Type: mq4 ModAllSellOrders.mq4   < 1 KB | 287 downloads
File Type: mq4 CloseAllOrders_MagicNr.mq4   2 KB | 266 downloads
File Type: mq4 CloseAllOrders.mq4   2 KB | 276 downloads
  • #36,019
  • Feb 24, 2023 12:34pm Feb 24, 2023 12:34pm
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1 break of support
2 marked high and close of weak bar
3 upthrust
4 no demand Entry
  • #36,020
  • Mar 6, 2023 9:05am Mar 6, 2023 9:05am
Bump..
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