Aussie Pairs

yes but NFP is gonna be good so...........

I guess that depends on a few factors such as what London does with the RBA statement. If they sell off like it is doing now then even if the numbers come in poorly, I am not sure it would rebound back to that number.

Even if the their was a short-term retrace after NFP the mid-term seems to be very bearish.

I guess a strong aussie dolar wasn't that good for the trade balance. We did get a 'nice' correction of 200 and some pips so far on the contrary of the hype out there that the market will continue one way.

Here is a chart to show what I am thinking that goes with what you are thinking. Nothing but trendlinesand price action. For me to post all my thoughts and visuals on one chart is impossible. The chart I will post if a weekly chart. Look at that big upbar right after the bar of indecision. I don't plan on this going to the upper yellow trendline. It may but, I am keeping my eye on this one. If that upper dotted trend line breaks and holds to the break. This pair may go for a long way. BUY ON DIPS

Another intraday clue to catch the ride.

Reward : Risk = 3 : 1

Cheers.

I think the dollar is starting to look like good value again. I will be protecting all positions prior to the No Farm. If dollar hits reverse trend line I will sell again.

Dollar closes weaker

Source:SYDNEY AAP
Date:2007-May-04 05:44 PM

The Australian dollar closed weaker today after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) diminished expectations of an interest rate rise this year following its forecast of lower expected inflation.

At 1700 AEST, the domestic unit was trading at $US0.8198/04, down almost half a US cent from yesterday's close of 0.8238/43.

The currency traded between a low of $US0.8171 and a high of 0.8259 during the local trade today.


The local unit shed almost 0.3 US cents within five minutes after the RBA issued its quarterly statement on monetary policy late this morning.

The report downgraded the RBA's underlying annual inflation rate for 2007 to 2.5 per cent from an earlier prediction of 2.75 per cent.

However, the RBA maintained its tightening bias and predicted headline and underlying inflation would rise to the higher side of its two to three per cent target range from June 2008.

Citigroup director and strategist Stephen Halmarick said the strengthening of the US dollar after strong manufacturing numbers and lower than expected jobless claims weighed down the Australian dollar.

The domestic currency would now be sought after by investors looking to buy on the dips below $0.8200.

"A little bit of profit-taking would not be out of the question," Mr Halmarick said.

"The low of 82 US cents is looking like good value."

The Australian dollar is expected to move back above $0.8300 in coming weeks as stronger commodity prices supported the currency, more so than the prospect of an interest rate rise next year.

"Previously the bank was saying commodity prices were peaking and they would be coming down in the year ahead," Mr Halmarick said.

"This time they're more upbeat about commodity prices.

"That suggests the Aussie (dollar) could be well supported by China."
The market will be looking to the release of US non-farm payrolls tonight.

7.30pm Tuesday night Aussie time, so early Tuesday for you in the US we have the Aussie budget handed down by the Treasurer.

Few are expecting tax cuts which would probably lead the RBA to raise rates later this year, currently all rate rises seem to be on hold given the data out the past few weeks.

You can access the budget from the government website http://www.budget.gov.au/ (hope the link works)

I'm still short AUD because I'm bearish on commodities short term after having been bullish for the past few years.

Also the trade deficit had a huge blow out today, interesting that we hear of the US trade deficit running around 5-6% of GDP whereas the Aussie I think is actually higher.
Also the printing presses may well be running harder here than the US too, m3 growth over last year I read was about 16%

Just have to throw another chart in here. The green line that has been broke will be a good area to watch for being support now. That is where I would add to my position.

bvbfan,

Thanks for the input.

Is that short term bearish on commodities? mostly they run in 17 year cycles so I'm still bullish, but anything can happen with china trying to slow down the economy in the short term.

I'm looking for sell opportunities above 8230, 8250.

I would expect to see AUS/USD range until the Fed interest rate decision.

Yes just short term bearish on commodities, expecting a correction in China which could/should flow into some of the commodities. Unfortunately I got bearish a few weeks to early and missed quite a rally on my major (stock) holdings.

The only upside to AUD is inflation brought on by the drought in south east Australia following into higher prices in fresh fruit and vegetables. The high AUD hasn't reduced petrol prices much and that could be a double whammy on transport costs for the fruit and veges too.

I'm more a fundamentalist but use techincals for entry and exits

I think a close eye on the Murray darling basin rainfall will and the water available for the farmers will give a good indication on possible inflation in the coming year. I also read the other day that Italy was having some similar problems with their water supply to agriculture.

I saw a comment the other day that Costello said that they will not change interest rates based on short term inflation caused by the shortfall of water causing increase pricing in agriculture. Don't know how he can say this? thought the RBA was suppose to be independant.

Costello thinks he's god and constantly makes dumb comments. He's been trying to get into the leadership position in his political party for years but no one likes him despite the fact that he's been a very succesful.

Back on topic:
My short position on the 4 hour chart has just closed at 69 pips profit. (3 working days). I've just put a long bid on at:

Entry: 0.8356, Stop: 0.8207, Limit: 0.8346

I'm not sure this will trigger as the shorter period charts seem to show that it has hit some kind of resistance. Current price is 0.8244

So you're entering a buy stop on an upward breakout? You're not looking to get long at the current levels? (.8244)

Well, I am an Aussie in Southern Sydney suburbs. (the shire!)The nations Birthplace in 1770.
The aussie battler, as we call it, is booming due our rich supply of resources & shipping our resorces to China. There seems no end to this, however, COT data, which I don't have access to, may tell whether the run is over.

Generally, though, during the east coast aussie day, all trading is usually very thin, & the aussie usually only moves 50-60 pips in a day. ( most of that during the London & US sessions)Watch for big announcements from our resource companies, such as BHP, RIO tinto, Blue scope steel (BSL), and of course, interest rates,
cya, Bazza

I put a bid in to go long but it didn't trigger with in the four hour bar. So I've taken it off. I'll look for a signal next.

http://www.freecotcharts.com/charts/SF.htm

some cot data available here.

I think there is more upside for the AUS but I am not taking any long trades because I think it's short term, low risk reward trade. I will be waiting for dips to the upside, possible 8300 prior to selling to the AUD again. I am happy to stay out of the market for the time.

$A closes higher ahead of federal budget

Source:SYDNEY AAP
Date:2007-May-07 05:32 PM

The Australian dollar closed higher on Monday as traders built on US dollar weakness ahead of key economic news due on Tuesday, including retail sales and the federal budget.

At 1700 AEST, the domestic unit was trading at $US0.8247/53, about half a US cent higher than Friday's close of $US0.8198/04.

The currency traded between a low of $US0.8206 and a high of 0.8256 during the day.

Grange Securities research director Stephen Roberts said the Australian dollar was initially boosted from its lows by a softer-than-expected US non-farm payrolls on Friday night.

"Since then, it has largely been on the climb," he said.

The US non-farm payroll numbers showed 88,000 jobs were created in April, against market expectations of 100,000 new positions.

Mr Roberts said the Australian dollar added to its weekend gains on Monday amid a rise in commodity prices and firm second-tier data.

He said there was further upside potential for the local currency, with Tuesday's key data, including retail sales, building approvals and the federal budget, likely to be supportive.

"There's a lot of reasons why the Australian dollar should be strong," Mr Roberts said.

"The cash rate obliviously won't be lifted anytime soon, but that's where the risk lies in six, seven, eight months' time.

He said retail sales would likely be firm, while the federal budget had the potential to keep interest rates high.

At 1600 AEST, the Reserve Bank of Australia's trade weighted index (TWI) was at 66.8 points from Friday's close of 66.5.

I have placed two buy orders on pullback today on the EUR/AUD. With strong bias toward EUR raising interest rates this week and the donward momentum after last week of the AUD I believe there is more reason for a stronger EUR against AUD.

Appears the mods merged all the AUD threads, which I think was a good idea.

Looks like the retail sales caught some shorts off-guard, AUD/USD back above the .8300 level, and the down trendline from the 4/18 highs has been broken. What's everyone's analysis from here? Looks like a re-test of the highs is in order.