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Mysterio's Cable Corner -- Key Levels, Price Action & Order Flow

  • #581
  • Feb 11, 2023 2:53am Feb 11, 2023 2:53am
Quoting papadas
Hello Rick, thank you for sharing your setup. i have a question on it … on the same candle where you have at the bottom a double 0 setup that you fade we also have at the top of it another double 0 setup. why not to fade the double top setup and fade the double bottom. well from the candle direction we can see that you were correct…. You opposed the double bottom setup and the price moves up …. However the candle closed with a double 0 on the top….. The only logical explanation is that the strategy is only relevant for the same candle and you took...
Hi papadas

Its relevant as a setup for both trades short & long on one candle or it can be used as a swing low / high setup.
So that would be about 4 tick short and a bigger 6-8 tick long.

We do however need some form of content to trade profitability therefore I would of been looking for a stong Complete Auction setup only as a Long. not as a Short. The content would therefore be based on a swing Low setup.

What the footprint chart doesn't show us is speed, those double 0 are normally executed instantaneously offering no chance to enter a trade till maybe 1 ticks later.

How's your speed?
Do you practice speed drills?

For me to be able to profit from these Complete Auction setups, I had to be able to see setup, hit my Mouse / Stream Deck pad and have it executed on the CME exchange in Chicago within 0.5 seconds. To achieve this, I practice 20 minute speed drills every single trading day before I trade live, and use the faster's trading platform that's linked to the quickest execution Futures broker I can get my hands on.

Whilst I'm not as fast as an HFT Algo from Citadel Securities, I just may be quicker than the average small- time trader which now becomes my prey.
Basically a bigger mug than myself.


Cheers

P.S.

Zego asked how I exit - yes by Data when it flips.
However sometimes a TP place several ticks ahead is just smarter.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #582
  • Edited 4:42am Feb 11, 2023 4:19am | Edited 4:42am
NZD/CHF.

based on the ratio of buyers and sellers, there should be a bullish correction, because the price is trying to balance.
that next week I will be a bull until the correction.

i will count about 50 pips as profit to rebalance.
  • #583
  • Feb 11, 2023 7:25am Feb 11, 2023 7:25am
Quoting mysterio
dont like the EQL. decided to take BE. if we get some BOS then might try again on pullback. Friday afternoon though -- enjoy the weekend
Hello brother. I have been reading your messages for some time and I don't know what you are arguing about. Your emphasis is on high and low sessions such as Asia, New York and London. You are waiting for the price to take it. But after taking it, in which direction do you trade? For example, in a downward trend, when the price reaches the low of Asia or New York, do you go into buying? Or do you wait until the high of Asia etc. is taken to enter the sale How is that ? The next question is, on what basis do you choose supply or demand?
  • #584
  • Feb 12, 2023 4:38am Feb 12, 2023 4:38am
Quoting majidmas
{quote} Hello brother. I have been reading your messages for some time and I don't know what you are arguing about. Your emphasis is on high and low sessions such as Asia, New York and London. You are waiting for the price to take it. But after taking it, in which direction do you trade? For example, in a downward trend, when the price reaches the low of Asia or New York, do you go into buying? Or do you wait until the high of Asia etc. is taken to enter the sale How is that ? The next question is, on what basis do you choose supply or demand?
Hey, I shouldn't really have been trading at this time of day. The reason was it was a level I wanted to trade at earlier in the day, I saw a lot of confluence (such as absorption, DXY had done a LQG, there was absorption etc)

When I saw price just deflected from the structure level I pretty much realized my mistake and set the stop to breakeven

Like you say there are key times you want to be engaging in the markets, like the busy session opens. London close on a Friday is just not optimal.

Supply and Demand just the classic way, a zone that causes a) a high volume 'leg out' (impulse move), b)breaks an opposing supply and demand OR well defined structure level. If you can verify it using market profile all the better.

We are fading the direction, to keep things simple I just described one setup, which generally will work best in ranging conditions. In trending conditions it may not happen, or may only happen once in a day but I wanted to keep it simple and not get into dozens of setups.

I found personally you can improve your trading by just simplifying things and choosing one or two setups that you can set alerts for and not 'screen gaze' all day which will surely lose you money.

If you get into a situation where you're applying say, 10 different setups, or worse the 'random technical analysis' trap where you just deploy a mishmash of methods and find a trade anywhere.
  • #585
  • Feb 12, 2023 4:42am Feb 12, 2023 4:42am
I mentioned a spreadsheet earlier, if you wanted to try and 'grade' the setup with different confluence parameters

I thought the idea had some merit but, the main thing I found is nobody used it (including myself)

The last thing you want to do is fill out a spreadsheet in the 'heat of the moment' so it's not really been road tested in any serious way, but, it's here if you want to play around

If like me you worked in investment management and spreadsheets are second nature then it should only really take a few seconds to fill out

Just to be clear, I don't use it so i'm not recommending anyone else does either, but I was asked for it by a few.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls tradescore.xls   1,021 KB | 251 downloads
  • #586
  • Feb 12, 2023 4:46am Feb 12, 2023 4:46am
And thanks Rick, I knew about complete auctions but double complete auctions is new to me, i'll look out for that

Spending time learning footprint is definitely time well spent for any futures trader

One of the confirmations from the OP (multiple bullish/bearish imbalances) is straight from Trader Dale, that was my one takeaway from his books

Good for the 'V' shaped reversals where you want to confirm that 'the move is on' before it's too late to do anything about it
  • #587
  • Feb 12, 2023 5:09am Feb 12, 2023 5:09am
Oh yea,

Last week was an example of a week where this kind of setup falls down a bit (pronounced trends) and you have to either stand back or adjust your approach. What you'll find is price just plows through liquidity pools instead of 'dancing between' and kind of tap in and out of them. Instead, breakouts in the direction of the trend work fine.

I have two other price action / order flow setups for this kind of situation

But to be honest, I generally just skip them

This is where your multi time frame and macro analysis comes in useful. Look for large untested volume areas, generally the more price goes away from them the faster they'll snap back and retest them, that was the situation last week. Unscientific explanation!

Helps if you can 'tell a story' about price action on the higher time frame. For example last week we were basically filling a large imbalance on H4 created at the start of the year and all the while the possibility of a violent move up to retest the 1.2130 area (high volume on MP) was always a possibility. If you have this story in mind then the market becomes less of a mystery and you can anticipate the bottom of the market. I think we called 1.1962 in real time earlier

Despite that I was still kind of taken aback by how quick it was. I definitely didn't optimize for that.
  • #588
  • Feb 12, 2023 7:52am Feb 12, 2023 7:52am
Hi can anyone please help me understand and integrate supply and demand zones and orderblocks to my trading knowledge
  • #589
  • Feb 12, 2023 10:23am Feb 12, 2023 10:23am
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Quoting tbruintjies2
Hi can anyone please help me understand and integrate supply and demand zones and orderblocks to my trading knowledge
I wait for a break of structure with a really strong move and then wait for price to come back that zone. Once price touches that zone I wait for volume to indicate a good entry.
  • #590
  • Feb 12, 2023 11:36am Feb 12, 2023 11:36am
Quoting tokyopill
{image} {quote} I wait for a break of structure with a really strong move and then wait for price to come back that zone. Once price touches that zone I wait for volume to indicate a good entry.
Can you explain more?
  • #591
  • Edited 10:22pm Feb 12, 2023 9:13pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting fghgjcxsgh
{quote}Can you explain more?
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The logic and fundamental thought process behind these kind of moves is supply and demand or market imbalance. The general concept is price is driven so emphatically in one direction because either a large enough player (like a bank) is moving price, or an overwhelming influx of orders on one side. This is represented in one of two ways..a break of structure, or just a bunch of successive candle sticks in a row...but ideally both. So once we identify supply and demand, or a market imbalance we look for the area of price right before this move happened. This is where you see the zones marked up on the chart. Logic is that price was so appealing to trader or banks at the price, that it must be an important level. So what usually happens is price comes back to this level to grab liquidity, and then back in the direction in originally broke. The only other confirmation I use is volume with a 20ma just take make sure there's enough liquidity left in the move to take some pips. There's hundreds of setups like this a day on all time frames.

It's a very popular and common strategy that re
  • #592
  • Feb 13, 2023 5:12am Feb 13, 2023 5:12am
Morning

For now i'm going to assume the trading range is 1.1950-1.2100

We're on last weeks POC/High volume area which may be considered support, but not definitely

Sellside liquidity under asia low has been taken and there's buy side at 1.2080 along with a price action imbalance. We've had a BOS on m5.

With that in mind i'm cautiously long from just above asia low but, stops at breakeven aware we could travel back down to 1.1950 area.
  • #593
  • Feb 13, 2023 5:29am Feb 13, 2023 5:29am
was that a break of Asia low and sweep?
ado
  • #594
  • Feb 13, 2023 5:30am Feb 13, 2023 5:30am
Quoting mysterio
Morning For now i'm going to assume the trading range is 1.1950-1.2100 We're on last weeks POC/High volume area which may be considered support, but not definitely Sellside liquidity under asia low has been taken and there's buy side at 1.2080 along with a price action imbalance. We've had a BOS on m5. With that in mind i'm cautiously long from just above asia low but, stops at breakeven aware we could travel back down to 1.1950 area.
50% closed at 1.2052 (round number)

half left to 1.2075ish
  • #595
  • Feb 13, 2023 5:31am Feb 13, 2023 5:31am
Quoting ade1
was that a break of Asia low and sweep?
Yessir

key level- asia low
trading level- high volume zone on market profile (last week)

trading level can be S&D, FVG, High volume node etc. Helps if there's something, higher odds

Notice the price action too try and make sense of it- initial bounce, shake out/stop hunt, accumulation, leg out

There was a short available too after the morning during Frankfurt but, had a long drive last night slept in :/

Looking for short at 1.2080, got a slight short bias
  • #596
  • Feb 13, 2023 5:35am Feb 13, 2023 5:35am
Yessir

key level- asia low
trading level- high volume zone on market profile (last week)

Starting to make a whole lotta sense..Thank you.
ado
  • #597
  • Feb 13, 2023 6:08am Feb 13, 2023 6:08am
Looking for this in NY
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  • #598
  • Feb 13, 2023 6:20am Feb 13, 2023 6:20am
stops should be above 1.2110

Looks like we'll contact 1.21-1.2105ish
  • #599
  • Edited 7:01am Feb 13, 2023 6:35am | Edited 7:01am
within a hair of getting stopped.

If so, leaving it there for the day. one decent gain one smaller loss.

1.2105 was my second level for sell so, hopefully still in with a shout

Edit-stopped on second position.

Will leave it there might be mistaken on my assumption of a range. Could just be resumption of bull trend post - FOMC deep correction. Not sure.

Either that or the general idea was right it just overshot.

Anyone got a take on the bigger picture?
  • #600
  • Feb 13, 2023 8:25am Feb 13, 2023 8:25am
Quoting mysterio
within a hair of getting stopped. If so, leaving it there for the day. one decent gain one smaller loss. 1.2105 was my second level for sell so, hopefully still in with a shout Edit-stopped on second position. Will leave it there might be mistaken on my assumption of a range. Could just be resumption of bull trend post - FOMC deep correction. Not sure. Either that or the general idea was right it just overshot. Anyone got a take on the bigger picture?
i think it overshoot...

1.2100 is on h4 an important level
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