Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 484 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Planetary cycles, astrological theory of cycles of the markets 510 replies

Forecast Forex using Numeric Cycles and Astrology Cycles 38 replies

Planetary Cycles... Plotting Cycles into the Future 0 replies

Market Waves are NOT Cycles 8 replies

Waves/Trends/Cycles 0 replies

Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
Exit Attachments

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #9,661
  • Feb 10, 2023 9:07am Feb 10, 2023 9:07am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 46 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 45 KB
  • #9,662
  • Feb 10, 2023 9:40am Feb 10, 2023 9:40am
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} Sorry i have another question and it is about focal points. what Moving averages you consider for crossing each other to create focal point?
Read attentively the 3 documents posted on Tillman's methodology and Hurst's Profit Magic - Chapter 6

Prerequisite :

a) to intersect in the Middle of a Price Move successive adjacent Moving Averages HAVE to have their Period related by 2.

They are labeled Full Span Moving Average and Half Span Moving Average.

b) your moving average periods has to be close from operative cycles working efficiently within Price Action.

Up to Daily from 1 mn upwards I use 16 ,32, 64, 128, 256

For weekly data I use 13, 39, 78, 156, 312
  • #9,663
  • Feb 10, 2023 11:26am Feb 10, 2023 11:26am
NATURAL GAS Daily

Chart from Ziggy generated by Sentient Trader for the location of potential future troughs of the Cycles
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 76 KB
  • #9,664
  • Feb 10, 2023 11:33am Feb 10, 2023 11:33am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 41 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 35 KB
  • #9,665
  • Feb 10, 2023 11:38am Feb 10, 2023 11:38am
Jenkins fans would label it a Quadrilateral
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 77 KB
  • #9,666
  • Feb 10, 2023 11:52am Feb 10, 2023 11:52am
Quoting parisboy
I often find the correct FP for a move is at a retracement or pause zone (which makes sense). Obviously a 5 leg move can be between pause zones so that's one to watch out for I did think NG was at a major low, but after applying the new FP tools I suspect it may be heading down in a 5 leg move. this configuration is very common. This is how I noticed the importance of Double Tops (Double Bottom) and the existence of 3 or 5 Downwaves with the "intermediary" successive Focal Points {image} {image}
Unlike crude oil, nat gas cannot go below zero dollar. Producers just can flare the excessive gas. More interestingly, oil-gas conversion rate is now over 30 (historic norm is 20). If we can have longer term investment vehicles, selling crude oil and buying nat gas at the same time is a pretty sold arbitrage opportunity.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #9,667
  • Feb 10, 2023 11:55am Feb 10, 2023 11:55am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 39 KB
  • #9,668
  • Feb 10, 2023 11:58am Feb 10, 2023 11:58am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Unlike crude oil, nat gas cannot go below zero dollar. Producers just can flare the excessive gas. More interestingly, oil-gas conversion rate is now over 30 (historic norm is 20). If we can have longer term investment vehicles, selling crude oil and buying nat gas at the same time is a pretty sold arbitrage opportunity.
Low Target Price could be 1,64 $ - which is not zero.

I will elaborate later on the subject

Thanks for your interest.
  • #9,669
  • Feb 10, 2023 12:03pm Feb 10, 2023 12:03pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Low Target Price could be 1,64 $ - which is not zero. I will elaborate later on the subject Thanks for your interest.
Fundamentally, that's very much possible after some short covering rally or bull trap.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #9,670
  • Feb 10, 2023 12:22pm Feb 10, 2023 12:22pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Fundamentally, that's very much possible after some short covering rally or bull trap.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 40 KB
  • #9,671
  • Feb 10, 2023 12:44pm Feb 10, 2023 12:44pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Fundamentally, that's very much possible after some short covering rally or bull trap.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 40 KB
  • #9,672
  • Feb 10, 2023 2:42pm Feb 10, 2023 2:42pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Read attentively the 3 documents posted on Tillman's methodology and Hurst's Profit Magic - Chapter 6 Prerequisite : a) to intersect in the Middle of a Price Move successive adjacent Moving Averages HAVE to have their Period related by 2. They are labeled Full Span Moving Average and Half Span Moving Average. b) your moving average periods has to be close from operative cycles working efficiently within Price Action. Up to Daily from 1 mn upwards I use 16 ,32, 64, 128, 256 For weekly data I use 13, 39, 78, 156, 312
Thanks
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #9,673
  • Feb 10, 2023 6:41pm Feb 10, 2023 6:41pm
that is a typical "cyclic" chart (almost) unuseful !

It is just tells you that there is a component cycle of period P (which Amplitude ?) or more precisely wave within price action.

But you can not really trade it.

There are within Price Action always several Component Waves at work, building some Composite Waves whose some are Dominant.

Among the Dominant Waves (what you see on your Chart) some are more Dominant than the others.

The chart posted does not take into account the UNDERLYING TREND which is Bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 81 KB
  • #9,674
  • Feb 10, 2023 6:43pm Feb 10, 2023 6:43pm
you have such regular sinewave(s) configuration ONLY when Price Action is in Range ( Underlying Trend is Flat / Neutral)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 84 KB
  • #9,675
  • Feb 10, 2023 6:44pm Feb 10, 2023 6:44pm
In this case you just need to show the useful information.

The rest is irrelevant.

Too much information negates the useful information
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 70 KB
  • #9,676
  • Feb 10, 2023 6:48pm Feb 10, 2023 6:48pm
9 Months CMA(red) and 18 months CMA (blue) have intersected creating a Focal point FP2 .

This gives us a Target Price as a Low; CMA 36 Months (3 Years) is UP and potentially targeting the Focal Point FP2;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 30 KB
  • #9,677
  • Feb 10, 2023 6:50pm Feb 10, 2023 6:50pm
Keep in mind this potential scenario called " Mirror Image"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 25 KB
  • #9,678
  • Feb 10, 2023 6:51pm Feb 10, 2023 6:51pm
the best way for all people interested is to TRAIN on BTCUSD 1 mn on a demo account.

Open 24/24 - good volatility.

Then on a 1 mn chart you can check your anticipations between 4 to 8 times a day. then you will gain confidence in the tools and your judgment
  • #9,679
  • Feb 10, 2023 6:56pm Feb 10, 2023 6:56pm
You have to learn to CLASSIFY and HIERARCHIZE your WAVES.

What no Elliotician does in a rational way. Envelopes helps you to do that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 81 KB
  • #9,680
  • Feb 10, 2023 6:58pm Feb 10, 2023 6:58pm
Every time you see a Double Top you have this Configuration 2 Waves of Period X (orange) and One Wave of Period 2X (blue).

You also see a M pattern or a Bat Pattern . Depends of your taste , history etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 78 KB
3 traders viewing now