Dewey 1944 " Nominal Model"
Dewey did a fantastic job for that time, and beyond,
His estimates are very close to what we could estimate today with better tools,
Bbut he did not include one of his favorite cycles in this set, the 3.5Y cycle (which he also speculated was a compound cycle possibly)
The cyclic model shown (Dewey's Nominal Model ) dated from 1944.
It includes no cycles of length shorter than 4 years.
The 3.5 Years cycle was "discovered" (studied) by Dewey after 1950 - see my posts on the 3.5 Year / 41 months Cycle
Dewey and Dakin in their book "Cycles" in 1947 showed 3.5 year cycle for multiple series like stock prices, industrial production, pig iron, etc, and gave credits to the discovery of the 3.5 year cycle to Crum 2023, Hoskins 1935, Schumpeter (on five series) 1939 and Armstrong, all in the range of 40.5 to 42 months.
In other words, well established before WW2
Dewey did a fantastic job for that time, and beyond,
His estimates are very close to what we could estimate today with better tools,
Bbut he did not include one of his favorite cycles in this set, the 3.5Y cycle (which he also speculated was a compound cycle possibly)
The cyclic model shown (Dewey's Nominal Model ) dated from 1944.
It includes no cycles of length shorter than 4 years.
The 3.5 Years cycle was "discovered" (studied) by Dewey after 1950 - see my posts on the 3.5 Year / 41 months Cycle
Dewey and Dakin in their book "Cycles" in 1947 showed 3.5 year cycle for multiple series like stock prices, industrial production, pig iron, etc, and gave credits to the discovery of the 3.5 year cycle to Crum 2023, Hoskins 1935, Schumpeter (on five series) 1939 and Armstrong, all in the range of 40.5 to 42 months.
In other words, well established before WW2
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