Aussie Pairs

Check either James16's thread or the jotty summary / pdfs for what pin bars are.

Just some 1h acrobatics I wanted to post from a chart I made for a different thread as an example of how simple making money without fun-da-mentals can be if used properly in conjunction with s/r and price action.

Added a bit to it and thought it might interest some. Currently in a long from that last mini 4h PB, waiting to see if the descending TL goes or not, stop at b/e.

In my eyes AUDUSD can be superior to GBPJPY since you make a lot more money per pip thanks to small stops.

Couldn't agree more.

Thanks for the chart Seeking Light.

Will we see a break of strong support at 8230? if interest rate statement comes out as expected then I think we will see this support broken prior to non-farm payrolls.

A giant in thinking, a short guy in acting.

That is a lot of ppl doing in their daily lives. We are nobody until we can be the giant not only in thinking, but also in acting.

Cheers.

The dollar broke through the key support level at 8230 today but bounced back. It will be interesting to see how the dollar reacts to the RBA statement prior to the noFarm.

Most of the market seems to be moving on the possibility of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at the moment.

$A down on strong US manufacturing data

Source:Trading RoomDate:2007-May-02 05:25 PM
The Australian dollar closed lower as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold as expected and the US posted strong manufacturing data.

At 1700 AEST, the domestic unit was trading at $US0.8237/43, down from Tuesday's close of 0.8290/95.

The currency traded between a low of $US0.8222 and a high of 0.8282 during local trade.


The RBA announced its decision to keep the cash rate at 6.25 per cent, following their monthly board meeting in Sydney on Tuesday.

National Australia Bank head of research Peter Jolly said the market did not react to the central bank's announcement because it was universally expected.

The Australian currency has been trading above the 80 US cent mark for the past six weeks based on previous speculation interest rates will rise.

The domestic unit's slip had more to do with the release of the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index for April.

The figures showed manufacturing growth rose by 3.8 percentage points to 54.7 per cent during the month, with a reading above 50 suggesting an expansion.

Mr Jolly said the ISM numbers showed a weakness in the US housing sector had not spread to other parts of the American economy.

"The way we see it, so far, is the fallout from the weakening housing market is quite limited.

"US manufacturing is at a fairly neutral level.
"If the weakness in housing spreads through the economy we'd expect the ISM to be sub-50."

A weakness in US economic sectors like manufacturing would encourage the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates.

"It just confirms the Feds are on hold at the moment," Mr Jolly said, adding the US central bank was more likely to cut interest rates towards the end of the year.

The euro and the British pound sterling also fell as expectations of a near-term rate cut in the US diminished.

OK, I'm an Aussie - but don't claim to have any particular expertise in this currency (we Aussies tend to be a bit self-deprecating about things Australian) - and mostly I have focussed on more glamourous pairs like the GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and even more exotica like the EUR/CAD. So I missed most of the recent uptrend. I did the same in late 2005, when I first started trading forex - remember having a long position accidentally in place over Xmas, discovered it after the broker closed so couldn't set a stop, and kept logging on to watch these wild (to my novice eyes) swings that eventually gave me an 80% increase in my trading account (which had been hovering on the brink of being terminal - and has since retreated there several times again - an experience every forex trader will be familiar with!).
So - enough reminiscence. Those "pin bars", Seeking, we call "kangaroo tails" down here. The kangaroo has to be one of the stupidest animals in existence (just have a look at the size of its head next time you see one) and is a pest species to boot, but the tourists still think they are cute. The tail is pretty powerful, though.
Anyway, there is a kangaroo tail on the 4 hour (sorry - I am technologically challenged, and have no idea how to post a chart!), and also the daily, from this morning (4:00 GMT or 10:00 a.m AEST, just after the news - or the no-news - came out about the interest rate non-statement), and the body/close has support on the 72 ema (240 min) and the tail bounces off the 34 daily ema.
The last few non-events re interest rates/economic news have resulted in a precipitous decline, followed by a recovery within the european & US sessions, and this one has been much the same, except the recovery is not (so far) complete.
The economy here is pretty buoyant - we are still luxuriating in the commodities (resources - i.e metals and oil) boom. Being an exporting nation, it is not good for our economy to have a strong currency, but we like being able to buy things cheaper! (overseas type things... cars, clothes, cosmetics...)
Now for the Elliott Wave picture (my apologies in advance if you don't like EW - I have a love-hate relationship with EW, as it has led to mostly losses in trading, but I still like having a broader framework).
We are probably not looking at a trend reversal at this point, but a Wave C (down) of Wave 4 retracement - the move up from the 2006 low being more likely a Wave B than a Wave 5, at this point. That is not my own analysis - after seeing the differences of opinion among EW enthusiasts who are much more experienced than me, I don't think my opinion on the EW count is worth much! But the bit to remember is, yes, we are likely going into a retracement, eventually maybe to the 76-77 level, before a further push up to a new high (Wave 5).
Maybe I won't apologise, after having another look at your chart, Mark! Do you have a way of making sense of it???
And I like your AUDUSAurus, Halifax! Best pattern I've seen yet.
All of that is consistent with the topping patterns in the EU & GU and the bottoming patterns in the USD index. So I agree, shorts look to be the thing right now - I wouldn't be betting too much on those kangaroo tails. Just wait for some signs of the rally running out of steam, would be my strategy, and then sell the rally.
But I could be wrong!
Sorry for the rambling on - it's late at night here, and I'm waiting for the US news and open before logging off and going to bed.

Kangaroo Tail?
Not heard that one before but here is a nice chart.
Great thread and good to have some info on what is happening down here!!!

Can't go past a nice daily chart with Daryl Guppy's GMMA.
I am waiting for a bounce but I would have preferred a lower bounce to go long again.

[quote=starfire;1430704]
But the bit to remember is, yes, we are likely going into a retracement, eventually maybe to the 76-77 level, before a further push up to a new high (Wave 5).

Maybe I won't apologise, after having another look at your chart, Mark! Do you have a way of making sense of it???
quote]

Starfire,

Thanks for the input. Personally I do not think we will make any new highs from this point unless the AUS starts raising rates again the US starts a down cycle of rates (just my opinion).

I think the uptrend is still there but the fundamentals of that trend have changed and I think we may be reaching the inflection point of the trend and turnaround.

As for the my charts, they do look pretty!! I completely understand then. All that is really on them is daily range levels and ATR.

Interested to hear other peoples opions on their short positions prior to RBA announcement and Non Farm.

I currently have 5 positions short on the AUS from 8350 and will be taking two of them of the table prior to the release at the close of today unless the AUS drops to 8230 again today in which case I will take them of there. I will leave the other 3 on with 8330 as a stop for long term target of 8050.

$A steady at noon ahead of RBA statement

Source:SYDNEY AAPDate:2007-May-03 12:46 PM
The Australian dollar was little changed at noon as traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy statement on Friday.

At 1200 AEST, the domestic unit was trading at $US0.8243/48, up from Thursday's close of 0.8237/43.

Since the open, it's traded between a low of $US0.8241 and a high of 0.8250.

The RBA is expected, in its statement on Friday, to underline its commitment to curbing inflation, helping to support the local unit at close to current levels, ANZ currency strategist Sally Auld said.

"Currency and bond Markets are trading in very tight ranges ahead of tomorrow's monetary policy from the RBA," Ms Auld said.

"(The RBA's) commentary is going to be broadly supportive of the Aussie dollar in the sense that they aren't going to give up their tightening bias."
The next support level is down about 81.80 but it's unlikely to fall to that level in the next 24 hours, Ms Auld said.

"(The RBA) likely to make some comments to the effect that it's more likely that the next move in rates will be up than down."

In the US, new orders for manufactured goods in March rose a better-than-expected 3.1 per cent to $US400.2 billion ($A484.59 billion), the US Census Bureau said.

The Australian bond market was mixed at noon.

At 1200 AEST, the yield on the Commonwealth Government February 2017 bond was at 5.822 per cent from Wednesday's close of 5.830 per cent, while the August 2010 bond yield was at 6.040 per cent from 6.030.

On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the June 10-year bond futures contract price was unchanged from Wednesday's close of 94.175, while the three-year contract price was at 93.955 from 93.950.

At 1200 AEST, the Reserve Bank of Australia's trade weighted index (TWI) was unchanged from Wednesday's close of 66.9.

i keep my 20 lots short at 8295
target 8202 and 80

I have already unload 10 lots at 8242

hard to break 0,8221
big boys still long in their heads otherwise we should be under under 82 so far

The RBA statement is later today so I don't suspect you will see a move below 8200 prior. The current range at 8222 has only been 35 for day so a small range. The current stall is also around yesterdays low which is lowest the AUD has seen since the 10 of April.

I think if it breaks the 8220 you may see a test of 8200 before it shoots back prior to the RBA statement.

I took everything off the table from my 8340 short. RBA and NFP are too much of a coin-flip, and I'm not interested in gambling +110pip profit on those odds. I'd keep a tight stop on any open positions. Looking for a support break post-NFP of 8220, or preferably a retest of the 4-hr downtrend currently at 8315, before re-entering short positions.

I agree with your decision to exit. I have closed two of my positions but will leave the others open for the RBA statement with a stop above 8270.

0,8202 out 1/3
remaining 1/3 target 0,80

Stayed in short from @.8246. If NFP is USD positive tomorrow then .8000 should not be far off.

just mooving stop to 0,8251 ( short at 0,8295)

will trail it later

I am short eur/jpy at 163,09 from this morning
target 160 before next friday ( very bearish technical signal on my system)

Good call Samuri.
I don't trade this pair but I decided to watch it and I'm happy to see you're making money. Keep up the good work.

If NTP is bad or unemploment rate we see 0.8250 again