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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #1,581
  • Jan 26, 2023 7:29am Jan 26, 2023 7:29am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} The RED moving average looks like it could be a scalping method on its own - bit like Al Brook price action around his 10ma?
It be the main one. Works fairly well within the rules.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,582
  • Jan 26, 2023 7:41am Jan 26, 2023 7:41am
Quoting spzd
For all you currency traders ... USD_JPY First open bar is the trigger. You can enter on that bar. Price has a tendency to do a retrace toward the MA before going in the direction we think it should. A - I think this is the only one that really needs an explanation. You would like to see the MA start to change to a shallower slope. At the open of the 2nd bar the 15-H was still showing more down. It is a judgement call. Honestly I may have entered on the 2nd bar. If so, I would have been stopped out - or the way it moved I would haved killed it at...
You are waiting for the Red MA to hook upwards / downwards for a signal ?

I think signal A, B & D would be profitable,

How do you cope with the late signals, such as Candle C & Candle E when the swings are much smaller.

Unless you only take Short signals as the general market trend is down. So B & D signals.

Confirmation by checking JPY is strong against all other majors (Correlation). So shorts are order of the day.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,583
  • Edited 2:56pm Jan 26, 2023 8:35am | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} You are waiting for the Red MA to hook upwards / downwards for a signal ?
What I look for is price crossing from one side to the other. The slope and eventual turn is a validation not a trigger. By the rules of waiting on a pullback toward the MA the MA is often in that position.

Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I think signal A, B & D would be profitable, How do you cope with the late signals, such as Candle C & Candle E when the swings are much smaller.
The rules are what allow me into some and not others. If I do not get a pullback toward the MA there is no entry. When trading the M5 or M15 all entries come on the open of the bar after the retrace if the context still allows an entry.

Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Unless you only take Short signals as the general market trend is down. So B & D signals. Confirmation by checking JPY is strong against all other majors (Correlation). So shorts are order of the day.
This is by all means valid. For me, I am trying to keep it as simple as I can. My main focus is day trading the indices and I trade currencies using the same system with the same rules.

For this day, and I took a couple of those trades, price had been moving down since London. It had however been in a small range and was at PDL. With the cross from Sell to Buy was a good time to see if a signal is given. This pair has been ranging in this area since about the 13 Jan.

Not apparent at the outset, but it was after the 2nd hour of the US session that this was ranging

This is the only pair I trade. Have bounce between the GU and GJ and now this.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,584
  • Jan 26, 2023 8:40am Jan 26, 2023 8:40am
A pullback is not required if the bar that crosses is already close to the apex or floor.

I use these MAs as proxies for price. They are my crutch and I have figured how to make this work.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,585
  • Jan 26, 2023 8:52am Jan 26, 2023 8:52am
Because I spend the vast majority of my chart time on the smaller time frames I am learning how price moves from my perspective. It is quite interesting and has saved me a couple of times just because of how price acts.

Also, due to how price reacts at certain points of interest convinces without a doubt that price is NOT a reflection of buyers and sellers. There is no way in hell that a bunch of random people can cause some of these outcomes.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,586
  • Jan 26, 2023 1:18pm Jan 26, 2023 1:18pm
Quoting spzd
Because I spend the vast majority of my chart time on the smaller time frames I am learning how price moves from my perspective. It is quite interesting and has saved me a couple of times just because of how price acts. Also, due to how price reacts at certain points of interest convinces without a doubt that price is NOT a reflection of buyers and sellers. There is no way in hell that a bunch of random people can cause some of these outcomes.
This is your system, you built it and understand it best.

I use just one Ma for trend direction, but rely more on Market structure & key levels to guage who is in control.

It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #1,587
  • Jan 27, 2023 9:01pm Jan 27, 2023 9:01pm
HMA 21 as creator's original setting.
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  • #1,588
  • Jan 28, 2023 6:23am Jan 28, 2023 6:23am
Quoting FocusWinReal
HMA 21 as creator's original setting. {image}
Thanks. Could not find that. Probably missed it in my skim reading.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,589
  • Jan 28, 2023 7:46am Jan 28, 2023 7:46am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Thanks. Could not find that. Probably missed it in my skim reading.
Sorry mate my mistake. Re-watched the video and it is a default setting. He says to curve fit it to whatever you are trading. Interesting. Even says volume is useless now compared to 30 years ago. Algo's he mentions.
Cheers...

Inserted Video
  • #1,590
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:42am Jan 28, 2023 8:42am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} Sorry mate my mistake. Re-watched the video and it is a default setting. He says to curve fit it to whatever you are trading. Interesting. Even says volume is useless now compared to 30 years ago. Algo's he mentions. Cheers... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1escKAsUwjM
Thanks again. I have set mine to a base of 15. Works very well within my market view.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,591
  • Jan 28, 2023 8:59am Jan 28, 2023 8:59am
"If you try to engineer all of the risk out of a trade, it will only surface somewhere else when it is least welcome."

Perry Kaufman algo creator (systematic trading) and rocket scientist <--- go figure
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,592
  • Jan 28, 2023 1:00pm Jan 28, 2023 1:00pm
OK. Entries are set. Work the same no matter the time frame. The only difference from M1 and H1 would be the precision of the entry as both could be used.

I mention the H1 because it is time for at least a touch of strategy (even though I think most everything will be the same) in the attempt to get a bit more out of each swing.

I have also been analyzing the UJ v GJ. Back in the GJ crowd. Larger moves with action very similar to UJ.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,593
  • Jan 28, 2023 1:30pm Jan 28, 2023 1:30pm
Quoting spzd
I have also been analyzing the UJ v GJ. Back in the GJ crowd. Larger moves with action very similar to UJ.
Have you considered that the GJ spread is often double the UJ spread ?
  • #1,594
  • Jan 28, 2023 2:12pm Jan 28, 2023 2:12pm
Quoting Lou
{quote} Have you considered that the GJ spread is often double the UJ spread ?
The broker I am using has a GJ spread of around .2p to .5p.

edit: Over weekend it is 10.2p.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,595
  • Jan 28, 2023 9:33pm Jan 28, 2023 9:33pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Thanks again. I have set mine to a base of 15. Works very well within my market view.
Watched most of the video. I am pleased that what I am doing has some similarities with what the originator does. I have taken the extra step and made the MA my own. This is seen in how I use it.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,596
  • Jan 29, 2023 10:29am Jan 29, 2023 10:29am
Spent a week, even if the first couple days I had the wrong period on the Hull, and have adjusted my perspective just a bit. It became completely clear after I watched the video with AHull and saw what I am doing is based off his method (figured out before watching the video ).

The H1 15-Hull, 60-H 0n the M15, as the primary MA works well as the main swing identifier even if it is lagging some. Since I use the same base Hull of 15-periods no matter the chart time, I think I will just name them the chart time with a capital H. H1-H, M15-H, M5-H, M1-H. Crossings of the MAs work as with any other MAs in defining price direction. The concept of the arch and floor remain (this was briefly mentioned in the video).

In a strange way, the MAs help me to see price better (still have not put my finger on exactly why). When price is moving directionally, up or down, it tends to move in impulse moves followed by a sideways or some counter-direction move before moving off in another impulse type move. When price reaches the top or bottom can only really be known after the fact. Potential change in direction still comes with price crossing an MA. Nothing in how price and the MAs has changed.
My initial premise that the M15-Hull was the primary MA has been proven incorrect. From what I am seeing the H1-Hull looks as if it will hold up as the primary. The two charts clearly emphasize how the H1-H (blue) is far superior in general swing direction than the M15-H (red).

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,597
  • Jan 29, 2023 10:51am Jan 29, 2023 10:51am
In this time of learning some new methodology and putting together this whatever it is, I have used a prop firm evaluation account for the currencies and the occasional CFD chart. I have taken this account almost to the terminal drawdown before I started to climb back after mostly solidifying my system. I have 7 trading days to salvage this thing. May do it. May not. Either way it will be good to execute my system in a full trial.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,598
  • Jan 29, 2023 10:53am Jan 29, 2023 10:53am
Quoting spzd
In this time of learning some new methodology and putting together this whatever it is, I have used a prop firm evaluation account for the currencies and the occasional CFD chart. I have taken this account almost to the terminal drawdown before I started to climb back after mostly solidifying my system. I have 7 trading days to salvage this thing. May do it. May not. Either way it will be good to execute my system in a full trial.
This way I can work out any kinks before I take this system to the indices full time.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,599
  • Jan 29, 2023 8:24pm Jan 29, 2023 8:24pm
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  • #1,600
  • Jan 29, 2023 8:28pm Jan 29, 2023 8:28pm
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