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Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

  • #1,561
  • Jan 20, 2023 6:49pm Jan 20, 2023 6:49pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} The 20 Linear Weighted will be off from the 20-Hull. The formula for the Hull takes the linear weighted MA and pumps it with some steroids ... What I have there is the 20-Hull as the base. The longer period Hulls are the Hull from a higher time frame. Switched to M15 to see structure better and it is working like a charm.
Definitely can see the difference.. on the 15m what would be your entry on the 15 ?
apparently no data on my 1m for the time period shown. What chart pkg are you using?
  • #1,562
  • Jan 21, 2023 5:56pm Jan 21, 2023 5:56pm
Hey SPZD ,
Nice thread you started ,i was at right time , i just started looking Mr.Burke trading playbook, his ideas about when market moves and timings, stop hunts were gave more useful information and his understanding that horizontal lines r more stronger than slope lines or textbooks patterns , but i personally find his entries a bit hard to focus bcaz in live trading we r trading a session in a aprticualr window if we are scalping ,and his methods justl ike SMC have a lot of teories and things going on,i could see as ur thread progress u have changed ur methods,, currently i am using simple BO strategy trading in LTA zones since i trade from zone to zone ,m ay be u can create a DISCORD channel ,it is easy for traders to come and discuss and share their charts much more better and to communicate better.

Thanks keep up the gud work
  • #1,563
  • Jan 22, 2023 9:46am Jan 22, 2023 9:46am
Quoting 24karatz
Hey SPZD , Nice thread you started ,i was at right time , i just started looking Mr.Burke trading playbook, his ideas about when market moves and timings, stop hunts were gave more useful information and his understanding that horizontal lines r more stronger than slope lines or textbooks patterns , but i personally find his entries a bit hard to focus bcaz in live trading we r trading a session in a aprticualr window if we are scalping ,and his methods justl ike SMC have a lot of teories and things going on,i could see as ur thread progress u have...
Thanks

Mr Burke did help me. And I was having a similar issue with entries. It was then I realized it may take years to really understand PA as I want and I continue to constantly study it.

I consciously changed what I was doing to fit me. It is that simple. And honestly, I think I have something that works. Most of these posts are for my benefit. This way I can't go back and fudge anything. It is documentation of my putting together my trading.

Not going to do discord. For many reasons. I know it is the "thing" and it is likely easier than FF, but I am not into teaching and admin. Just want to trade.

Take care
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,564
  • Jan 22, 2023 9:49am Jan 22, 2023 9:49am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Here it is on the UJ. Sorry GJ fans, I'm liking this pair. Also, with the battle of wills between the two central bank policies and it makes for good volatility. I am thinking this may continue for awhile. {image} {image}
Equilibrium is when price and some other element are at or near the same spot. Examples are when price reaches either a level or a moving average. The value of price and the element are the same or close enough. This is a state of equilibrium. For those with naked charts, this state is seen by price slowing then start to bob or moving mostly sideways for a few bars. There are many areas of equilibrium, only the one's that fall within the framework of the method are important in that these equilibrium points are where the entries are made.

The 20-period Hull set on the 15-minute chart makes for a good combination for short term trading. Due to its nature, the Hull has the unique behavior of following the swings of intraday price movement. The Hull shows these swings in a mixture of cycle like moves and more shallow waves. This behavior gives a distinct buy side and sell side. The demarcation between these two zones would be the apex (top) and floor (bottom).

The concept of Buy side and Sell side. Should be intuitive.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,565
  • Jan 22, 2023 11:03am Jan 22, 2023 11:03am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Equilibrium is when price and some other element are at or near the same spot. Examples are when price reaches either a level or a moving average. The value of price and the element are the same or close enough. This is a state of equilibrium. For those with naked charts, this state is seen by price slowing then start to bob or moving mostly sideways for a few bars. There are many areas of equilibrium, only the one's that fall within the framework of the method are important in that these equilibrium points are where the entries are made....
Swings. When most think of swings (and I was this way) they think longer term, usually at least a few days. I think that is how the majority on FF try to trade. Me, I'm in the trenches. Maybe not as close as some - second and tick charts and all that nonsense. If it's for you OK.

My definition of swing are the always there intraday ups and downs. These moves are mostly framed in the movement of the M15 20-Hull. This and some price behavior rules and that is a lot of my system. A "regular" swing will be moves such as high of the day to low of the day as some moves occur occasionally. Other examples would be a larger move (relative to the instrument and time) to some point of interest, be it some horizontal level or MA (these are often targets). There are also what I call "micro-swings". Micro-swings are often counter moves. They are also the moves in a range. This is often the case with the Asian session for some instruments. It is also seen in price moving toward some red data.

The next two charts are from Mon 16 Jan 2023. This is the MNQ (Nasdaq100) on a partial US holiday. Partial because there was trading in the US morning. The first is with just my stuff. The second is marked-up with how I see swings.

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This was an orderly day.

The circles are the 2 apexes and 2 floors. This created 4 distinct swings. A and D could be considered micro-swings.

Within each box are brown boxes. These are mostly sideways moves, often back to an MA or level. These areas are what I call price resetting or cycling through (as we called it in another life). It is price coming back to equilibrium after a more extended move or it is one of those times like the upper brown box in B. This is the Tokyo Stock Exchange lunch time. I gave it an extra 15 minutes. This area is 40/60 between moves and sideways.

Days like this are a pleasure to trade.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,566
  • Jan 22, 2023 11:18am Jan 22, 2023 11:18am
Quoting spzd
{quote} Swings. When most think of swings (and I was this way) they think longer term, usually at least a few days. I think that is how the majority on FF try to trade. Me, I'm in the trenches. Maybe not as close as some - second and tick charts and all that nonsense. If it's for you OK. My definition of swing are the always there intraday ups and downs. These moves are mostly framed in the movement of the M15 20-Hull. This and some price behavior rules and that is a lot of my system. A "regular" swing will be moves such as high of the day to low...
This is what a lot of days look like.

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The very next day Tues 17 Jan 2023. As you can clearly see, this was a busy day. The US session was quite volatile as it can often be. Asia and London, on the other hand, was mostly range with a few impulse moves. Keep in mind this is a 15 minute chart and in the indices a lot can happen in 15 minutes. Even with, what at first glance is slop, the 20-Hull does a fairly good job of defining price movement. The one exception is after the US FHB. this large down bar bent the 20-Hull in the opposite direction. Not a turn though as price remained contained within the boundaries of the system.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,567
  • Jan 22, 2023 11:54am Jan 22, 2023 11:54am
Quoting spzd
{quote} This is what a lot of days look like. {image} The very next day Tues 17 Jan 2023. As you can clearly see, this was a busy day. The US session was quite volatile as it can often be. Asia and London, on the other hand, was mostly range with a few impulse moves. Keep in mind this is a 15 minute chart and in the indices a lot can happen in 15 minutes. Even with, what at first glance is slop, the 20-Hull does a fairly good job of defining price movement. The one exception is after the US FHB. this large down bar bent the 20-Hull in the opposite...
Here is the USD_JPY for those same two days. Monday was fairly smooth. Tuesday was busy. A lot of that was positions being taken for the BOJ announcement that was the next day. Again, see how well the system frames price and how the M15 20-Hull defines the swings.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,568
  • Jan 22, 2023 1:12pm Jan 22, 2023 1:12pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Here is the USD_JPY for those same two days. Monday was fairly smooth. Tuesday was busy. A lot of that was positions being taken for the BOJ announcement that was the next day. Again, see how well the system frames price and how the M15 20-Hull defines the swings. {image} {image} {image} {image}
These two charts cover about 6 hours of the M1 MNQ from Tues 17 Jan 2023. It is a period from about 1200 UTC to 1800 UTC. I will be using these two charts for a discussion on how I view price action within the framework I have setup.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,569
  • Jan 22, 2023 1:35pm Jan 22, 2023 1:35pm
Somedays I feel just like this ...

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today is not one of those days
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,570
  • Jan 22, 2023 1:46pm Jan 22, 2023 1:46pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} These two charts cover about 6 hours of the M1 MNQ from Tues 17 Jan 2023. It is a period from about 1200 UTC to 1800 UTC. I will be using these two charts for a discussion on how I view price action within the framework I have setup. {image} {image}
A quick reminder of the MAs and this had a slider, which is when price and/or MA "slide" along another element then turns.

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,571
  • Jan 22, 2023 4:37pm Jan 22, 2023 4:37pm
Thinking my comment on his latest thread may have hit the spot. Oh well ...

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Inserted Video
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,572
  • Jan 22, 2023 8:19pm Jan 22, 2023 8:19pm
No US red data until Thursday. Everything else will be more of a nuisance than a mover.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,573
  • Jan 24, 2023 7:15am Jan 24, 2023 7:15am
Quoting spzd
No US red data until Thursday. Everything else will be more of a nuisance than a mover.
Did not see today's red data event. 1445 UTC
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,574
  • Jan 24, 2023 7:05pm Jan 24, 2023 7:05pm
My apologies to any who put this on their charts. I made an error reading my old notes. The base Hull has a period of 15 on the 15 minute chart.

M15 chart: 15-Hull (base), 60-Hull (H1), 1440-Hull (Daily) (have to use a continuous chart if putting this on a futures chart)

M5 chart: 15-Hull (M5), 45-Hull (M15 base), 180-Hull (H1), 4320-Hull (Daily) (I know crazy big)

M1 chart: 15-Hull (M1), 75-Hull (M5), 225-Hull (M15 base), 900-Hull (H1), 21600-Hull (Daily) (yeah it is almost ridiculous)

M15 (fixed)

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M5 (fixed)

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M1 (fixed)

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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,575
  • Jan 25, 2023 3:57pm Jan 25, 2023 3:57pm
Synopsis

Want to thank the folks here. Thanks.

I have levels, high, low, open, close (indices). These are my static framework.

I have a set of Hull moving averages based off the 15-period Hull. This creates a price proxy dynamic framework.

The Hulls are used with price in a concept I call equilibrium.

Price will move from the Buy side into equilibrium into the Sell side for entry and vice versa. (in general rule - needs context)

Equilibrium is more a small area around a point of interest. You can see price does act different.

I use the MAs as a proxy to aid me in reading price.

The main directional MA is the M15-Hull.

Price will often retrace (pullback) to an area near where two MAs cross if it has not gone too far.

Price moves in impulses then needs to reset for the next impulse.

From my viewpoint (and my viewpoint is what I am in the process of doing), take from others what works for you (or may work for you) and create something that fits you. Up to this point, I have not been successful trading someone else's system/method. I think what I have pieced together (for I did not create any of the elements) is a potentially very viable system.

There are very few absolutes in trading.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,576
  • Jan 25, 2023 4:04pm Jan 25, 2023 4:04pm
Quoting spzd
My apologies to any who put this on their charts. I made an error reading my old notes. The base Hull has a period of 15 on the 15 minute chart. M15 chart: 15-Hull (base), 60-Hull (H1), 1440-Hull (Daily) (have to use a continuous chart if putting this on a futures chart) M5 chart: 15-Hull (M5), 45-Hull (M15 base), 180-Hull (H1), 4320-Hull (Daily) (I know crazy big) M1 chart: 15-Hull (M1), 75-Hull (M5), 225-Hull (M15 base), 900-Hull (H1), 21600-Hull (Daily) (yeah it is almost ridiculous) M15 (fixed) {image} M5 (fixed) {image} M1 (fixed) {image}
What do ya do when you get knocked down? Get up, dust yourself off, and power forward.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,577
  • Jan 25, 2023 7:43pm Jan 25, 2023 7:43pm
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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,578
  • Jan 25, 2023 8:30pm Jan 25, 2023 8:30pm
For all you currency traders ...

USD_JPY

First open bar is the trigger. You can enter on that bar. Price has a tendency to do a retrace toward the MA before going in the direction we think it should.

A - I think this is the only one that really needs an explanation. You would like to see the MA start to change to a shallower slope. At the open of the 2nd bar the 15-H was still showing more down. It is a judgement call. Honestly I may have entered on the 2nd bar. If so, I would have been stopped out - or the way it moved I would haved killed it at about -7/-9.

B - Retrace came on the trigger bar.

C - Retrace on trigger. Open above H1-H.

D - Retrace on trigger.

E - Same as C - less profit.

This is a rough estimate as I only traded C & D.

A = 20, B = 30/35, C = 20/25, D = 20, E = 10, Approximate total = 60/70p.


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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,579
  • Jan 25, 2023 8:32pm Jan 25, 2023 8:32pm
Quoting spzd
For all you currency traders ... USD_JPY First open bar is the trigger. You can enter on that bar. Price has a tendency to do a retrace toward the MA before going in the direction we think it should. A - I think this is the only one that really needs an explanation. You would like to see the MA start to change to a shallower slope. At the open of the 2nd bar the 15-H was still showing more down. It is a judgement call. Honestly I may have entered on the 2nd bar. If so, I would have been stopped out - or the way it moved I would haved killed it at...
Those estimate pips where without any real trade management.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,580
  • Jan 26, 2023 9:06am Jan 26, 2023 9:06am
Quoting spzd
For all you currency traders ... USD_JPY First open bar is the trigger. You can enter on that bar. Price has a tendency to do a retrace toward the MA before going in the direction we think it should. A - I think this is the only one that really needs an explanation. You would like to see the MA start to change to a shallower slope. At the open of the 2nd bar the 15-H was still showing more down. It is a judgement call. Honestly I may have entered on the 2nd bar. If so, I would have been stopped out - or the way it moved I would haved killed it at...
The RED moving average looks like it could be a scalping method on its own - bit like Al Brook price action around his 10ma?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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