Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

Several times over the past few months I've mentioned here that in addition to working with the rocky system I've also been trying to learn Stacey Burke's setups. I purchased Stacey's Best Trade Setups Playbook course and I'm going to focusing most of my attention on that course for the rest of January.

Good trading to all!

Another note to share is that with increased volatility again, I am using 10 Renko instead of 5 Renk on the MES/ES contracts. ALso, I started to prefer the 4-9-18 ema system to the 9 ema bands system, again, just due to the larger ranges and increased volatility.

Hi Vivad I don't know the odds in detail but it reminds me of smart money and yes when you plug into this smart money system and wait for the right trade there is always almost 100% TP

What do you mean "smart money?"

Hi vidvad;

Can you develop a little more, the use that you make in your strategy, the indicators: PP, Hi-Lo previous week / day, and Swing?

Thanks in advance and good luck.

High and low of the week and the high and low of the previous day serve as profit targets and also as places where I am on "heightened alert" for a new signal. Price will either breakout, pullback, and trend, breakout, fail, and reverse, or, breakout and move into a trading range. Those are the only three things price does.

There are very few inside days and very, very few inside weeks. That tells us that if price breaks out, pullsback, and then continues in a trend, that trend if likely to continue for a little while. If instead, price breaks out, pullsback, and reverses (failed or false breakout) then look for the signal to get in for the return trip to the other side of the previous day's or week's range.

Make sense?

More and more I am really coming to prefer the 4, 9, 18 ema rendition of the Renko HA. I find that I am better able to define set ups and as a result, better able to eliminate discretion and my own subjectivity.

Two main setups:

The 1st cross: Exactly what it sounds like: on the first candle close with the 4>9>18, go long at the market. First candle close with 4<9<18 got short at the market.

The 9-18 pullback: When 9ema>18ema, and a red candle(s) closes below the 9 ema, buy at the market when a green candle closes > 9ema; the 4 ema will by definition be back above the 9 ema. When the 9 ema< 18 ema, and a green candle(s) closes above the 9 ema, sell short at the market when a red candle closes below the 9 ema; the 4 ema will by definition be back abve the 9 ema.

ALso, rocky's swing indicator has been great at identifying double and triple tops and bottoms and also areas of congestion, and these areas of congestion make for great areas to find breakout continuation trades and breakout reversal trades.

Hi Vidvad,
Have you considered entering the trade when price closes inside the lower band?
I know a money manager that trades that way.
He uses support and resistance / pivots and timing trades around market opens.
Although there is a minor rejection, you also have an Inside Bar Breakout where my arrow is.

Excellent observation, BorderT.

As I continue to log live market hours watching both the 9ema band template and the 4-9-18 ema template I am seeing a lot of repeating patterns that can be worked out as rule-based set ups.

Your suggestion offers potentially a smaller required stop loss, though I'd have to back test to see exactly how much smaller. Currently, I use 20 ticks as stop on MES/ES, which is $25/$250 risk. This is up from 12 ticks ($15/$150) the intraday "back and fill" on the S&P's has increased since the new year. The chart pic you copied here, for ewxample, I was suing 5 tick renko bricks on ES. I have now doubled that to 10 tick Renko brick on ES. But back to your proposal, the trade-off for the potentially lower risk is lower probability. For example, bot 7 and 9 candles back from where you marked the candle close inside the band, there were two green candles closing inside the bands. That would have resulted in at least one stop out, possibly two stop outs. However, that was a profitable continuation trade that made it to the minimum profit target.

On the 4-9-18 template, which I am now gravitating toward, I like to see an opposing candle close between the 9-18 ema's, even closing on the other side of the 18 ema, then getting back in when we get a candle close back above the 9 ema. For the 4-9-18 template, I am using the ema's of the closes. The rockypoint 9ema band is the ema of the highs over the ema of the lows.

WHat I really like about both the templates, especially with the swing S/R indicator rocky uses, is that both offer a lot of flexibility for different sorts of traders: breakaout traders can trade this template, reversal traders can trade this template, trend traders can trade these templates. What you've seen from me is only "scratch the surface" stuff and I hope you and others post your own observations and set up ideas here.

I think there is incredible potential in both of these systems.

Hopefully rocky will be back from his holiday and back to posting soon too.

All the same data. All covering the same time period. How that data is collated makes a lot difference in how one cana use that data to construct a trading plan.

10 Renko Heikin Ashi

10 Renko

10 Range
15 Minute

I started a journal specifically to explore the 4-9-18 ema version of this system further along with some ideas I have about money management and position sizing. If you're interested in following along you can find the journal here:

vidvad's 2023 4-9-18 ema journal | Forex Factory


I'll still be posting here in rocky's thread when discussing rocky's 9 ema band template.

Looking forward to Tuesday and the US market's re-opening.

Looking forward to journal and following your trading journey.

Anyone here trading, whether live or demo, rocky's system or his or her own variant today?

Here is a the 9ema hi-lo template applied to a chart with my notes based on the 4-9-18 ema closes template today.

Whichever you trade, if you were trading the MES/ES you should be green on the day.

Got back home late today. Wound up staying a few extra days. Great trip, great surf.

Busy morning 5 trades. Moderate success. I'll be trading on ThinkorSwim for awhile instead of Ninjatrader. Account been sitting idle and I have some options trades I'm working on which is where TOS is really good. Charts don't have renko/heiken ashii candles can't do that on TOS, but I'm using 10 ticks range/heiken ashi instead. Also using MACD instead of RSI.

Big volatility started working its way into the NY session since the New Year. from 5 brick to 10 brick to now 12 brick for ES to better let the swing indi scope out S&R levels and avoid some whipsaw entries.

I already thought I wasn't going to get any trade today and yet the bounce from resistance came

the second trade of the day you open the trade as I do or otherwise or where you put the SL and when you move it to BE

Got up super late today 10:30, had trouble sleeping last night. So no trading for me.

Not in a trading mindset yet, still recovering from a 2week body battering by Playa Zicatela. Zicatela snapped 2 of my boards last 2 days. Not as young as I used to be. So sleeping late and doing lots of stretching . Tomorrow will hit the gym then take it from there.