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Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 329 replies

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Trading Made Simple

Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Did you follow Big E' Post #8703? Your " 35% return on a single pair only trading daily charts." on EURUSD Daily chart trading is too low. You need to work on a system strategy which trade multi-pairs as one basket which will enable you to pick only the best market type conditions to swing trade on Daily. This would enable you to make a average target of 10% every 20-trading days cycle and you have to accept at least 3 losing cycles every year where you have to cut-loss...

GU 2019 and 2020
Full two years 24 months 2019 and 2020 Daily chart swing trading

USD10,000
Risk 2% per basket using Position Sizing Account Balance/Equity
TP 300pips
SL 50pips
Trailing Stop 50pips after 50pips locked.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Jan 2019 to Dec 2020 CATS EVO 14-1-2023 6-23-12 pm.png Size: 15 KB


You can get lucky when the market conditions are favorable to your system, strategy.
2020 were a few good weeks / months because of Brexit and the Daily swing ran more than 10 candles.

...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} For MT4, use this EA for manual backtesting. -Can configure keyboard for sell/buy/close/close all. -Got fix TP/SL. MT4 has F12 which forward chart 1 bar at a time. > Check if Trading view as such a function. Every time you see a trade setup, press a button!!! {file}
@Tekkies

Don't talk only.

Do some back-test and show us your test results.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Quoting korosh1350
{quote} its withought considering price action?
Yes, when you are trading live you must look at the 5-Method Price Action with APB/HA candles and the 5EMA Typical Price,Shift+2.

Trade only
1) Trending Market Type 1 and
2) Sideways Wide Range Market Type 2
which you will determine using Daily and Weekly charts Top Down Analysis.

Use the APB/HA of the Weekly candles when swing trading.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Yes, when you are trading live you must look at the 5-Method Price Action with APB/HA candles and the 5EMA Typical Price,Shift+2. Trade only 1) Trending Market Type 1 and 2) Sideways Wide Range Market Type 2 which you will determine using Daily and Weekly charts Top Down Analysis. Use the APB/HA of the Weekly candles when swing trading.
and its very important after your advice i do some test in my live trade and see when i use price action with rhis meted its very useful i think this system beside PA can win much better
If anyone is trading crypto - this would be of interest.

Daily BTC at resistance.
H4 is printing inside bar, HA still bullish but TDI hooking over. lets see how this plays out. I see it either a reversal with a stop above the red line or continuation once close above the line and signal long.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MtNDXBfO.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: VJh9RLf3.png Size: 59 KB
Daily TDI hasnt been this high since the top in October 2021
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} @Tekkies Don't talk only. Do some back-test and show us your test results.
How would you like it?
Vanilla or chocolate flavor?
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} How would you like it? Vanilla or chocolate flavor?

Here @Tekkies

Follow Big E post#8703 ... cherry pick flavour.

Entry HA candle#2

USD10,000 size
Risk 5% per trade use Position Sizing SL=R
TP 15.0 ADR
SL 2.0 ADR
BE 1.0 ADR

Exit HA change colour

Re-entry HA change colour



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 5pct risk SESE 2019 2020 14-1-2023 8-12-45 pm.png Size: 12 KB



...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Quoting tassiebear
Daily TDI hasnt been this high since the top in October 2021
TDI is useless in strong trending price action
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
...
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} For MT4, use this EA for manual backtesting. -Can configure keyboard for sell/buy/close/close all. -Got fix TP/SL. MT4 has F12 which forward chart 1 bar at a time. > Check if Trading view as such a function. Every time you see a trade setup, press a button!!! {file}

Here @Tekkies


EU Daily chart Jan 2019 to Dec 31 2020

Follow Big E' Post#8073

Daily chart

Entry when H1 candle#2 close above/below 5EMA Typical Price, Shift+3

USD10,000 account
Risk 5% per lot/trade

TP 15.0 ADR
SL 2.0 ADR
BE 1.0 ADR

Exit when HA candle change colour.

Re-entry when HA change colour.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily 5pct lot Daily 14-1-2023 8-25-16 pm.png Size: 11 KB



...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} 35% is too high. ///
@Tekkies

No. 35% return on just one pair EU is NOT too high.

Your 2020 TE 5000 trades losses is way TOO HIGH!



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tekkies Blackstone Futures TE 5000 trades RED re-post Dec23.png Size: 39 KB



...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} @Tekkies No. 35% return on just one pair EU is NOT too high. Your 2020 TE 5000 trades losses is way TOO HIGH! {image} ...
On my personal account i risk between 1 and 2%, on prop accounts i'd risk between 0.4 - 0.5% - or less if in in a draw down. I adapt max risk to whatever will get me 10 losing trades from losing the account. so if account loss is 5% DD i will trade 0.5% risk per trade so i would only lose the account if i lose 10 trades in a row. also, if im down 2%, that means i'm only 3% away from losing the funded account i will decrease trades to 0.3% risk, so that way im still 10 trades away from blowing up.

35% was 2% risk on a single pair over 2 years trading daily candles only. The result is pretty good, largest draw down would be 8%. i can tolerate that, as long as my account is small enough. Once the account is bigger i will decrease risk down to 1%, and once i do that this return would most likely halve to 17.5% return over 2 years. which is average of 8.75% a year just trading one pair on a daily chart.
Imagine i trade 4 pairs and they all return similar results - that's 4 x 8.75%- back to 35% per year. And that's trading daily candles only, on 1% risk. EURUSD, Nasdaq, S&P, Dax, FTSE, AUDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD are all good candidates to backtest.

Once you trade multiple pairs you also have to consider risk across multiple open trades at a time - if you risk 2% per trade and hav 4 trades opened - a single unexpected news event can spike you out at 8% loss or even worse!
Experienced traders/profitable traders, what would you say are the main things that a novice traders need to focus on to work towards becoming a profitable trader?
Quoting arcticklein
Experienced traders/profitable traders, what would you say are the main things that a novice traders need to focus on to work towards becoming a profitable trader?
Learn the basics, search for baby pips first.
Once you completed the course find a system to trade - like this TMS for example - and learn about position sizing, risk management, trade management etc. Learn to be patient and consider your trading loses are the cost of education.
I recommend you don't buy trading systems but try to find groups where you can learn to trade. Don't jump from system to system, learn to use one and use it for 6 months or longer to understand fully how it works like. Don't rely on signals EVER

Only trade demo to learn how to position trades, how to enter/exit, how markets perform. Once you change over to live your psychology will make you mess your trades like you never seen before on demo.
Quoting tassiebear
{quote} Learn the basics, search for baby pips first. Once you completed the course find a system to trade - like this TMS for example - and learn about position sizing, risk management, trade management etc. Learn to be patient and consider your trading loses are the cost of education. I recommend you don't buy trading systems but try to find groups where you can learn to trade. Don't jump from system to system, learn to use one and use it for 6 months or longer to understand fully how it works like. Don't rely on signals EVER Only trade demo to...
Thanks for responding. When I say novice I don't mean as in I'm completely new to FX. Studied the whole of baby pips and been consistently trading demo for around 6/7 months. Practiced a few different systems. Currently trading the 1D/1H charts using price action aligned with fundamental releases. Still a little sloppy and making mistakes but feel like this system could work in the long run. Looking for advise on what I shouldn't do and what I should do really, in terms of what things are worth learning and what are a waste of time studying. E.G I know people swear by price action but I've seen very mixed reviews on indicators and averages.
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} @Tekkies No. 35% return on just one pair EU is NOT too high. Your 2020 TE 5000 trades losses is way TOO HIGH! {image} ...
You don't get it Vincent.
Red is my favour color!!!
Quoting arcticklein
Experienced traders/profitable traders, what would you say are the main things that a novice traders need to focus on to work towards becoming a profitable trader?
Rather stay away.
Find job, Create your own job.

Too many dreams went up in smoke with Forex.
Quoting arcticklein
{quote} Thanks for responding. When I say novice I don't mean as in I'm completely new to FX. Studied the whole of baby pips and been consistently trading demo for around 6/7 months. Practiced a few different systems. Currently trading the 1D/1H charts using price action aligned with fundamental releases. Still a little sloppy and making mistakes but feel like this system could work in the long run. Looking for advise on what I shouldn't do and what I should do really, in terms of what things are worth learning and what are a waste of time studying....
Ok I see. document your trading process - e.g. what you need to see on the charts, what level you enter, what is your risk, what is trade management approach, where is your take profit etc... be as precise as you can. document it and print it our, have it as your trade checklist next to the computer screen and always make sure you follow it. journal alll trades and every week review what happened, what worked and what didnt.
start with a small account and keep your risk management right until you get confident in executing and you have 100 trade live data showing you you have an edge.

trading is a business, not a hobby and you have to treat it as such. if you treat it as a hobby - you will spend money on it. if you treat it as business - you can make money out of it, keep that in mind every time you sit down to trade.
Quoting tassiebear
Weekend homework time: So far i have completed 2 year backtest on EURUSD daily charts on Tradingview, following the workflow i posted couple of pages back. I started 1/1/2019 as 2019 was very low volatility and ranging markets while 2020 started the volatility. the results so far are: Trades: 50 Losers: 20 Winners: 30 Win Rate: 60.00% Total Return: 17.9 R Longest losing streak: 4 Longest winning streak: 8 Number of trades with -1 R:R: 2 For each trade I also look to do a partial TP of 50% at these levels and these are the following returns for each...
I Finished off the daily candle EURUSD backtest for 4 years now.
screenshot of the last two years attached.

Trades: 99
Losers: 46
Winners: 53
Win Rate: 63.54%
Total Return: 24.7 R
Longest losing streak: 4
Longest winning streak: 8
Number of trades with -1 R:R: 4


For each trade I also look to do a partial TP of 50% at these levels and these are the following returns for each one:
1 x R:R = 22.9
1.25 x R:R = 24.675
1.5 x R:R = 22.75
2 x R:R = 22.465


Still a winning formula, not as great as the first two years, but overall there would be no losing years in the backtest.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0j24gSZd.png Size: 80 KB
Quoting arcticklein
Experienced traders/profitable traders, what would you say are the main things that a novice traders need to focus on to work towards becoming a profitable trader?
The most important thing now is to work on your Blueprint for Trading Success.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14229079

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post14192023

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14261106

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post14110930
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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