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Trading Made Simple

  • #137,481
  • Jan 13, 2023 11:57am Jan 13, 2023 11:57am
Quoting korosh1350
{quote} hi emmanuel what are you thik about news candle ? should we consider it as a normal candle in price action? when i use sma sometimes it looks like that its late yo enter trade what are you think of it? its looks like tdi shows the last candle tdi exactly when the current candle open Big E said that he trades 1H in 3 first hour of newyork opening exactly the time that news comes our?!!!is it right
Quoting eelfranz
Don't get fired ! Just make the necessary transition to trading 4hr charts during the London session... or Daily charts.

TMS MEME 2023

- MEME swing trading made simple the 4hr with Weekly Price Action and APB/HA candles

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Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Jan13 H1 Weekly view 14-1-2023 1-52-28 am.png Size: 18 KB



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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #137,482
  • Jan 13, 2023 12:23pm Jan 13, 2023 12:23pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} {quote} TMS MEME 2023 - MEME swing trading made simple the 4hr with Weekly Price Action and APB/HA candles {image} {image} ...
really appriciate
how you use these imformation do you use it for determin the trend ?. dont you ever trade counter trend?

i cant understand how big E trade h4 and exit trades after max 8 hours . many trades need days to give profit . i am really confuse
  • #137,483
  • Jan 13, 2023 1:32pm Jan 13, 2023 1:32pm
Quoting korosh1350
{quote} really appriciate how you use these imformation do you use it for determin the trend ?. dont you ever trade counter trend? i cant understand how big E trade h4 and exit trades after max 8 hours . many trades need days to give profit . i am really confuse
hi emmanuel

is this master candle and should trade after break?
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  • #137,484
  • Jan 13, 2023 6:51pm Jan 13, 2023 6:51pm
Quoting korosh1350
{quote} hi emmanuel is this master candle and should trade after break? {image}

before we even see a Master Candle [3],

we see a big candle aka WRB = Wide Range Bar

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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #137,485
  • Jan 13, 2023 10:01pm Jan 13, 2023 10:01pm
Weekend homework time:

So far i have completed 2 year backtest on EURUSD daily charts on Tradingview, following the workflow i posted couple of pages back. I started 1/1/2019 as 2019 was very low volatility and ranging markets while 2020 started the volatility. the results so far are:
Trades: 50
Losers: 20
Winners: 30
Win Rate: 60.00%
Total Return: 17.9 R
Longest losing streak: 4
Longest winning streak: 8
Number of trades with -1 R:R: 2


For each trade I also look to do a partial TP of 50% at these levels and these are the following returns for each one:
1 x R:R = 15.485
1.25 x R:R = 16.885
1.5 x R:R = 15.81
2 x R:R = 16.31

So if i risk 2% on each trade in these two years I could make up to 35% return on a single pair only trading daily charts.
Multiply that by 4 or 5 pairs and that will bring up some amazing numbers.


I've found out that TDI does a decent job in getting us in and out of the trades, out of 20 losing trades only 2 have hit a full SL. Overall i think i will need to follow this system for a few months to better identify ranging market conditions so i can keep out of it.

Next steps are to complete the EURUSD backtest on daily, then go to H4 charts as well. Once i have that completed I'll proceed to test other pairs, I think I'll go wiht AUDJPY next.
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  • #137,486
  • Jan 13, 2023 10:23pm Jan 13, 2023 10:23pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Took the same trade today on XAUUSD. If lot size 0.01 give such a profit, how many traders became millionaires today and how many lost a live time of savings? {image}

gold is looking pretty shiny now! How far did your ride it to?
  • #137,487
  • Jan 13, 2023 11:51pm Jan 13, 2023 11:51pm
Quoting tassiebear
{quote} gold is looking pretty shiny now! How far did your ride it to?
Took the profit an hour later, 4 hour load shedding was coming up.
  • #137,488
  • Jan 14, 2023 12:48am Jan 14, 2023 12:48am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} before we even see a Master Candle [3], we see a big candle aka WRB = Wide Range Bar {image} ...
sorry i mean measuring bar (joe ross ) . do i recognize it correctly?and should it trade after break out?

sorry to question a lot
  • #137,489
  • Jan 14, 2023 2:01am Jan 14, 2023 2:01am
Quoting tassiebear
Weekend homework time: So far i have completed 2 year backtest on EURUSD daily charts on Tradingview, following the workflow i posted couple of pages back. I started 1/1/2019 as 2019 was very low volatility and ranging markets while 2020 started the volatility. the results so far are: Trades: 50 Losers: 20 Winners: 30 Win Rate: 60.00% Total Return: 17.9 R Longest losing streak: 4 Longest winning streak: 8 Number of trades with -1 R:R: 2 For each trade I also look to do a partial TP of 50% at these levels and these are the following returns for each...
35% is too high.
Try to lower expectation by adding the following. (if not done already)
- Deduct spread from profit for each trade
- Swap fee for overnight night trades, 3 * swap fee for Wednesday night ( add to profit positief swap fee)
- Take into consideration > slippage < it can have a negative number over two years trading.
- For manuel trading remove all trades (profit) for those times you know that you won't be able to place a trade > Sleeping, at work, family time. shopping, traveling.............
-----
Remember you have done backtesting (hindsight trading) in perfect conditions. As you know by now that don't happen when you trade in real time.
  • #137,490
  • Jan 14, 2023 2:27am Jan 14, 2023 2:27am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} 35% is too high. Try to lower expectation by adding the following. (if not done already) - Deduct spread from profit for each trade - Swap fee for overnight night trades, 3 * swap fee for Wednesday night ( add to profit positief swap fee) - Take into consideration > slippage < it can have a negative number over two years trading. - For manuel trading remove all trades (profit) for those times you know that you won't be able to place a trade > Sleeping, at work, family time. shopping, traveling............. ----- Remember you have done backtesting...
Thanks Tekkies, I agree with your comments.
The trades are all on Daily price action, so I should be able to enter all the trades in the morning. Slippage, ok, but on daily chart its negligible. Also, i would enter either:
- it open price is lower than the close price - buy at market
- if open price is above - open limit at the last day close.
- same for shorts, but the other way around.

2% risk per trade would get me 35% over 2 years in ideal conditions. we all know i wont be able to execute exactly same way in the future and there will be missed trades, i think if i'd get 5 - 10% year on year with one pair that would be amazing.

Saying that - this is still work in progress,, I'm only half done. I still have 2021 and 2022 to go through.

once thats done i need to repeat that on H4 charts.


I look at my longest losing streak = 4, and if i risk 2% per trade it adds up to 8% draw down that's still within my risk tolerance for personal account, but for funded account i would cut the risk from 2% to -0.5% - which then gets me way lower returns obviously.

I do these type of backtests regularly and after a while I actually started enjoying it. The best benefits of doing manual backtests like this that I discovered:
- You know how the system performs. You know which pair to trade, you know which timeframe you tested on, i know what return to expect on this system
- That gives me confidence in the system to know that I don't have to change anything if i get a few losers in a row, Just review trades and decrease risk.
- I know that risking 2% per trade will get me amazing results
- stops me from fuuccXing around and changing things.
- backtests keep me busy, so i don't enter impulsive trades when there's no setup
  • #137,491
  • Jan 14, 2023 2:32am Jan 14, 2023 2:32am
If anyone wants to know how i track this - here is my google spread sheet with data. I enter date, direction, R, link to screenshot and if there are any partial Take profits i could take. the rest is calculated when i enter the data so i can follow the progress of the backtest.

I use the same approach for manual trading, except i only enter one partial TP obviously, and i record profit/loss numbers and my notes for every trade.
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  • #137,492
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:57am Jan 14, 2023 3:57am
Quoting tassiebear
If anyone wants to know how i track this - here is my google spread sheet with data. I enter date, direction, R, link to screenshot and if there are any partial Take profits i could take. the rest is calculated when i enter the data so i can follow the progress of the backtest. I use the same approach for manual trading, except i only enter one partial TP obviously, and i record profit/loss numbers and my notes for every trade. {image}
For MT4, use this EA for manual backtesting.
-Can configure keyboard for sell/buy/close/close all.
-Got fix TP/SL.
MT4 has F12 which forward chart 1 bar at a time. > Check if Trading view as such a function.
Every time you see a trade setup, press a button!!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 CL_EC_01_ManualTradingBackTester 130829.ex4   19 KB | 262 downloads
  • #137,493
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:08am Jan 14, 2023 4:08am
Quoting tassiebear
Weekend homework time: So far i have completed 2 year backtest on EURUSD daily charts on Tradingview, following the workflow i posted couple of pages back. I started 1/1/2019 as 2019 was very low volatility and ranging markets while 2020 started the volatility. the results so far are: Trades: 50 Losers: 20 Winners: 30 Win Rate: 60.00% Total Return: 17.9 R Longest losing streak: 4 Longest winning streak: 8 Number of trades with -1 R:R: 2 For each trade I also look to do a partial TP of 50% at these levels and these are the following returns for each...
thanks alot very useful.do you use only Tdi for in and out without any filtre like trend?
  • #137,494
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:10am Jan 14, 2023 4:10am
Quoting tassiebear
Weekend homework time: So far i have completed 2 year backtest on EURUSD daily charts on Tradingview, following the workflow i posted couple of pages back. I started 1/1/2019 as 2019 was very low volatility and ranging markets while 2020 started the volatility. the results so far are: Trades: 50 Losers: 20 Winners: 30 Win Rate: 60.00% Total Return: 17.9 R Longest losing streak: 4 Longest winning streak: 8 Number of trades with -1 R:R: 2 For each trade I also look to do a partial TP of 50% at these levels and these are the following returns for each...
Did you follow Big E' Post #8703?

Your " 35% return on a single pair only trading daily charts." on EURUSD Daily chart trading is too low.

You need to work on a system strategy which trade multi-pairs as one basket which will enable you to pick only the best market type conditions to swing trade on Daily. This would enable you to make a average target of 10% every 20-trading days cycle and you have to accept at least 3 losing cycles every year where you have to cut-loss 10% to 15%.

At any one time, a system strategy will trade 3 to 5 pairs which is Trending or Sideways Wide Ranging conditions running at the same time.

EU 2019 was a choppy year and there were hardly any Daily trades than ran 15 Days candle.

A quick test Jan 01 to Dec 31 2019 Daily chart using APB/HA candle swing.

USD 10,000 account balance
Risk 2%& per basket of 5 trades.
Average number of trades per basket 3.5


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Click to Enlarge Name: EU Jan to dec 2019 Daily CATS 14-1-2023 5-52-07 pm.png Size: 13 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #137,495
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:12am Jan 14, 2023 4:12am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} For MT4, use this EA for manual backtesting. -Can configure keyboard for sell/buy/close/close all. -Got fix TP/SL. MT4 has F12 which forward chart 1 bar at a time. > Check if Trading view as such a function. Every time you see a trade setup, press a button!!! {file}
Yes tradingview does have backtest feature. That's what I use. I go back 4 years in this case and more forward one bar at a time. Once I see the signal I enter long/short signal based on signals.
  • #137,496
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:15am Jan 14, 2023 4:15am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} 35% is too high. Try to lower expectation by adding the following. (if not done already) - Deduct spread from profit for each trade - Swap fee for overnight night trades, 3 * swap fee for Wednesday night ( add to profit positief swap fee) - Take into consideration > slippage < it can have a negative number over two years trading. - For manuel trading remove all trades (profit) for those times you know that you won't be able to place a trade > Sleeping, at work, family time. shopping, traveling............. ----- Remember you have...
"35% is too high. "

35% for 2 years 24 months period 2019 and 2020 is not too high. You must follow Big E' 5-Method using the HA candles average price entries and the HA PA above/below its 5EMA,Typical Price, Shift+2. Trading the once every 4 hours and follow the PA of the Daily and Weekly with 5EMA. You must trade Trending Market Type only.

My 2018 was 57%, 2019 and 2020 were above that.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUD Jan13 H4 TME MEME 2023 14-1-2023 1-59-01 am.png Size: 18 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Jan13 H1 Weekly view 14-1-2023 1-52-28 am.png Size: 18 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #137,497
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:21am Jan 14, 2023 4:21am
Quoting korosh1350
{quote} sorry i mean measuring bar (joe ross ) . do i recognize it correctly?and should it trade after break out? sorry to question a lot

Yes. That is also considered a Measuring Bar by Joe Ross' TLOC.

Both Master Candle and Joe Ross Measuring Bar are price action to help us identify potential market consolidation and sideways conditions, and we can prepare for potential trades.

A member here posted some documents on Master Candle and how to trade them.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #137,498
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:22am Jan 14, 2023 4:22am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Did you follow Big E' Post #8703? Your " 35% return on a single pair only trading daily charts." on EURUSD Daily chart trading is too low. You need to work on a system strategy which trade multi-pairs as one basket which will enable you to pick only the best market type conditions to swing trade on Daily. This would enable you to make a average target of 10% every 20-trading days cycle and you have to accept at least 3 losing cycles every year where you have to cut-loss...
2019 was a choppy year for sure. That's why I backtested that. First 6 months was actually really good, and second half was crap.

Here is a screenshot from my mobile.

35% return is daily charts on one pair over 2 years, so that 17.5-is per year on average of 2 years.

Manual backtest really helps me recognise patterns, helps me with my confidence in system and trading rules so I don't change it.this I'd the first backtedt I'm doing. As I mention d I will do h4 once I finish daily, then move on to other currencies.

If things add up for me and I see good returns I'll start trading this system on a funded account, but only on pairs I know that I have good backtedt data, in the timeframes I bactest on. You know, like a proper system.

I'm sharing my journey here hope that somebody can learn from it. I know a lot of people here would be fairly new and wouldn't know how to do this.

Hit me up if anyone is uding tradingview and wants to use th indicators I customised for this system, I'm happy to share.
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  • #137,499
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:23am Jan 14, 2023 4:23am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} "35% is too high. " 35% for 2 years 24 months period 2019 and 2020 is not too high. You must follow Big E' 5-Method using the HA candles average price entries and the HA PA above/below its 5EMA,Typical Price, Shift+2. Trading the once every 4 hours and follow the PA of the Daily and Weekly with 5EMA. You must trade Trending Market Type only. My 2018 was 57%, 2019 and 2020 were above that. {image} {image}
its withought considering price action?
  • #137,500
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:24am Jan 14, 2023 4:24am
Quoting korosh1350
{quote} thanks alot very useful.do you use only Tdi for in and out without any filtre like trend?
See few pages back I posted my process workflow
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